Pricing Study on Two Kinds of Power Options in Jump-Diffusion Models with Fractional Brownian Motion and Stochastic Rate

In this paper, under the assumption that the exchange rate follows the extended Vasicek model, the pricing of the reset option in FBM model is investigated. Some interesting themes such as closed-form formulas for the reset option with a single reset date and the phenomena of delta of the reset jumps existing in the reset option during the reset date are discussed. The closed-form formulae of pricing for two kinds of power options are derived in the end.

POLYNOMIAL MODEL BASED FAST FRACTIONAL PIXEL SEARCH ALGORITHM FOR H.264/AVC

This paper proposed a novel fast fractional pixel search algorithm based on polynomial model. With the analysis of distribution characteristics of motion compensation error surface inside tractional pixel searching window, the matching error is fitted with parabola along horizontal and vertical direction respectively. The proposcd searching strategy needs to check only 6 points rather than 16 or 24 points, which are used in the l lierarchical Fractional Pel Search algorithm （HFPS） for 1/4-pel and 1/8-pel Motion Estimation （ME）. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm shows very good capability in keeping the rate distortion performance while reduces computation load to a large extent compared with HFPS algorithm.

A method for simulating sediment incipient motion varying with time and space in an ocean model(FVCOM):development and validation

We modified the sediment incipient motion in a numerical model and evaluated the impact of this modification using a study case of the coastal area around Weihai, China. The modified and unmodified versions of the model were validated by comparing simulated and observed data of currents, waves, and suspended sediment concentrations(SSC) measured from July 25^(th) to July 26^(th), 2006. A fitted Shields diagram was introduced into the sediment model so that the critical erosional shear stress could vary with time. Thus, the simulated SSC patterns were improved to more closely reflect the observed values, so that the relative error of the variation range decreased by up to 34.5% and the relative error of simulated temporally averaged SSC decreased by up to 36%. In the modified model, the critical shear stress values of the simulated silt with a diameter of 0.035 mm and mud with a diameter of 0.004 mm varied from 0.05 to 0.13 N/m^2, and from 0.05 to 0.14 N/m^2, respectively, instead of remaining constant in the unmodified model. Besides, a method of applying spatially varying fractions of the mixed grain size sediment improved the simulated SSC distribution to fit better to the remote sensing map and reproduced the zonal area with high SSC between Heini Bay and the erosion groove in the modified model. The Relative Mean Absolute Error was reduced by between 6% and 79%, depending on the regional attributes when we used the modified method to simulate incipient sediment motion. But the modification achieved the higher accuracy in this study at a cost of computation speed decreasing by 1.52%.

ARMA–GARCH model with fractional generalized hyperbolic innovations

In this study,a multivariate ARMA–GARCH model with fractional generalized hyperbolic innovations exhibiting fat-tail,volatility clustering,and long-range dependence properties is introduced.To define the fractional generalized hyperbolic process,the non-fractional variant is derived by subordinating time-changed Brownian motion to the generalized inverse Gaussian process,and thereafter,the fractional generalized hyperbolic process is obtained using the Volterra kernel.Based on the ARMA–GARCH model with standard normal innovations,the parameters are estimated for the high-frequency returns of six U.S.stocks.Subsequently,the residuals extracted from the estimated ARMA–GARCH parameters are fitted to the fractional and non-fractional generalized hyperbolic processes.The results show that the fractional generalized hyperbolic process performs better in describing the behavior of the residual process of high-frequency returns than the non-fractional processes considered in this study.

On discrete time hedging errors in a fractional Black-Scholes model

In this paper we investigate asymptotic behavior of error of a discrete time hedging strategy in a fractional Black-Scholes model in the sense of Wick-ItS-Skorohod integration. The rate of convergence of the hedging error due to discrete-time trading when the true strategy is known for the trader, is investigated. The result provides new statistical tools to study and detect the effect of the long-memory and the Hurst parameter for the error of discrete time hedging.

Pricing Perpetual American Put Option in theMixed Fractional Brownian Motion

Under the assumption of the underlying asset is driven by the mixed fractional Brownian motion, we obtain the mixed fractionalBlack-Scholes partial differential equation by fractional Ito formula, and the pricing formula of perpetual American put option bythis partial differential equation theory.

A Stock Pricing Model Based on Arithmetic Brown Motion

This paper presents a new stock pricing model based on arithmetic Brown motion. The model overcomes the shortcomings of Gordon model completely. With the model investors can estimate the stock value of surplus companies, deficit companies, zero increase companies and bankrupt companies in long term investment or in short term investment.

Strong Local Non-Determinism of Sub-Fractional Brownian Motion

Let be a subfractional Brownian motion in . We prove that is strongly locally nondeterministic.

Simulation of a Daily Precipitation Time Series Using a Stochastic Model with Filtering

After we modified raw data for anomalies, we conducted spectral analysis using the data. In the frequency, the spectrum is best described by a decaying exponential function. For this reason, stochastic models characterized by a spectrum attenuated according to a power law cannot be used to model precipitation anomaly. We introduced a new model, the e-model, which properly reproduces the spectrum of the precipitation anomaly. After using the data to infer the parameter values of the e-model, we used the e-model to generate synthetic daily precipitation time series. Comparison with recorded data shows a good agreement. This e-model resembles fractional Brown motion (fBm)/fractional Lévy motion (fLm), especially the spectral method. That is, we transform white noise Xt to the precipitation daily time series. Our analyses show that the frequency of extreme precipitation events is best described by a Lévy law and cannot be accounted with a Gaussian distribution.

Critical Exercise Price for American Floating Strike Lookback Option in a Mixed Jump-Diffusion Model

This paper studies the critical exercise price of American floating strike lookback options under the mixed jump-diffusion model. By using It formula and Wick-It-Skorohod integral, a new market pricing model established under the environment of mixed jumpdiffusion fractional Brownian motion. The fundamental solutions of stochastic parabolic partial differential equations are estimated under the condition of Merton assumptions. The explicit integral representation of early exercise premium and the critical exercise price are also given, then the American floating strike lookback options factorization formula is obtained, the results is generalized the classical Black-Scholes market pricing model.

Web software reliability modeling with random impulsive shocks

As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth models （SRGMs）, including those combined with multiple change-points （CPs）, have been available, these conventional SRGMs cannot be directly applied to web soft- ware reliability analysis because of the complex web operational profile. To characterize the web operational profile precisely, it should be realized that the workload of a web server is normally non-homogeneous and often observed with the pattern of random impulsive shocks. A web software reliability model with random im- pulsive shocks and its statistical analysis method are developed. In the proposed model, the web server workload is characterized by a geometric Brownian motion process. Based on a real data set from IIS server logs of ICRMS website （www.icrms.cn）, the proposed model is demonstrated to be powerful for estimating impulsive shocks and web software reliability.

On a fractional stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model

The model studied in this paper is a stochastic extension of the so-called neuron model introduced by Hodgkin and Huxley. In the sense of rough paths, the model is perturbed by a multiplicative noise driven by a fractional Brownian motion, with a vector field satisfying the viability condition of Coutin and Marie for R× [0, 1]3. An application to the modeling of the membrane potential of nerve fibers damaged by a neuropathy is provided.

Asymptotic behavior for bi-fractional regression models via Malliavin calculus

Let B^H1,K1 and BH2,K2 be two independent bi-fractional Brownian motions. In this paper, as a natural extension to the fractional regression model, we consider the asymptotic behavior of the sequence Sn：=∑i=0^n-1K（n^αBi^H,K1）（Bi＋1^H2,K2-Bi^H2,K2）where K is a standard Gaussian kernel function and the bandwidth parameter α satisfies certain hypotheses. We show that its limiting distribution is a mixed normal law involving the local time of the bi-fractional Brownian motion B^H1,K1. We also give the stable convergence of the sequence Sn by using the techniques of the Malliavin calculus.

Pricing of Defaultable Securities Associated with Recovery Rate Under the Stochastic Interest Rate Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

This paper considers an improved model of pricing defaultable bonds under the assumption that the interest rate satisfies the Vasicek model driven by fractional Brownian motion(fBm for short)based on the counterparty risk framework of Jarrow and Yu(2001). The authors use the theory of stochastic analysis of f Bm to derive pricing formulas for the defaultable bonds and study how the counterparty risk, recovery rate, and the Hurst parameter affect the values of the defaultable bonds.Numerical experiment results are presented to demonstrate the findings.

分数Brown运动驱动的具有壁附着的恒化器模型的随机吸引子

大多数恒化器模型忽略了微生物的壁附着行为,并且对随机生物系统的记忆效应研究较少。基于此,本文研究由分数Brown运动驱动的具有壁附着的恒化器模型的随机吸引子的存在性。首先,引入合适的停时序列,将连续随机动力系统转化为一序列小区间上的离散随机动力系统;然后,在小的闭球内构造随机集,并证明其紧性、缓增性、吸引性,由此证明所生成随机动力系统拉回吸引子的存在性;最后,通过数值分析验证所得理论结果的正确性和有效性。

基于银行间同业拆放利率的长记忆随机利率模型研究

研究表明利率序列具有长记忆性,故本文使用分数布朗运动代替经典CIR模型中的几何布朗运动,构建分数CIR模型,并通过欧拉离散对分数CIR过程进行路径模拟。由于分数布朗运动的非马尔可夫性和增量不独立,无法使用极大似然估计和马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法对分数CIR模型进行参数估计,故本文引入间接推断估计法,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟证明该方法的可行性。本文使用间接推断估计法对我国银行间同业拆放利率数据进行实证分析及样本外预测,将经典CIR模型、分数O-U过程、分数CIR模型的拟合轨道与真实轨道进行分析对比,得出分数CIR模型更适用于描述具有长记忆性的利率序列。本文重点研究一种用于分数CIR模型的参数估计方法,未来将继续探究其他参数估计方法并对比这些方法的有效性和稳健性。

混合分数Brownian运动下美式期权定价

在混合分数Brownian运动驱动的Black-Scholes模型下,研究了美式期权定价问题。利用自融资策略和财富过程的交易费用,给出了一个结构更简单、使用更灵活的美式看跌期权近似定价公式。

分数Brown运动扰动风险模型的破产概率模拟计算

分数Brown运动具有长程相依性,且已被应用于风险理论研究。考虑到现实中保险公司盈余过程序列具有长程相依性,建立分数Brown运动扰动风险模型来刻画盈余过程序列,并对有限时破产概率进行了Monte-Carlo模拟计算。结合Cholesky分解方法模拟分数Brown运动样本轨道;提出一种有效的数值模拟算法对有限时破产概率进行了模拟计算,并通过数值算例研究了Hurst指数和波动系数对破产概率的影响;结合中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司在2008—2017年间的数据进行实证分析,从而根据有限时破产概率的数值模拟结果分析保险公司的运营状况。

具有分数Brown运动的随机时滞Lotka-Volterra模型数值解

由于带分数Brown运动的随机时滞Lotka-Volterra模型的精确解很难得到,因此数值近似方法成为了求解此方程的有力工具.根据Euler数值方法,利用It公式和分数Brown运动的性质,讨论带分数Brown运动的随机时滞Lotka-Volterra模型数值解的有界性和收敛性,并通过数值算例对给出的数值计算方法进行验证.

带标准Brown运动扰动风险模型的破产概率模拟计算

当索赔额序列服从重尾分布时,带标准Brown运动扰动风险模型的破产概率无解析表达式。首先提出一种模拟带标准Brown运动扰动风险模型盈余轨道的程序思想,结合Monte-Carlo方法,讨论风险模型在有限时间内的破产概率,并通过数值算例验证了程序的有效性。其次根据中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司2014年和2015年的数据,利用统计分析方法,采用广义Pareto分布刻画重大理赔额序列,Poisson过程刻画理赔次数,标准Brown运动刻画其它风险干扰因素。最后对该公司有限时间内的破产概率进行了Monte-Carlo模拟计算。由于综合考虑了其他营业支出及风险干扰等影响因素,使得保险公司在有限时间内的破产概率模拟计算结果更加贴合实际。