This article presents a semi-Markov process based approach to optimally select a portfolio consisting of credit risky bonds.The criteria to optimize the credit portfolio is based on l_(∞)-norm risk measure and the pr...This article presents a semi-Markov process based approach to optimally select a portfolio consisting of credit risky bonds.The criteria to optimize the credit portfolio is based on l_(∞)-norm risk measure and the proposed optimization model is formulated as a linear programming problem.The input parameters to the optimization model are rate of returns of bonds which are obtained using credit ratings assuming that credit ratings of bonds follow a semi-Markov process.Modeling credit ratings by semi-Markov processes has several advantages over Markov chain models,i.e.,it addresses the ageing effect present in the credit rating dynamics.The transition probability matrices generated by semi-Markov process and initial credit ratings are used to generate rate of returns of bonds.The empirical performance of the proposed model is analyzed using the real data.Further,comparison of the proposed approach with the Markov chain approach is performed by obtaining the efficient frontiers for the two models.展开更多
One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random process...One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random processes with positive tendency and negative jump in this article. The first passage of the zero level of the process will be included as a random variable. The Laplace transforms for the distribution of this random variable is defined. The parameters of the distribution will be calculated on the basis of the final results.展开更多
The possibility of describing the time-dependent processes of scattering by underlying surfaces and the clear sky, as well as the seasonal behaviour of the refractive index of troposphere by using nested semi-Markov p...The possibility of describing the time-dependent processes of scattering by underlying surfaces and the clear sky, as well as the seasonal behaviour of the refractive index of troposphere by using nested semi-Markov processes has been consid- ered. Local Gaussian models can be used to describe the process inside each phase state. The possibility of describing the sta- tistics of reflections from the sea and the refractive index by using Kravchenko finite functions has been shown for the first time.展开更多
Drought conditions at a given location evolve randomly through time and are typically characterized by severity and duration. Researchers interested in modeling the economic effects of drought on agriculture or other ...Drought conditions at a given location evolve randomly through time and are typically characterized by severity and duration. Researchers interested in modeling the economic effects of drought on agriculture or other water users often capture the stochastic nature of drought and its conditions via multiyear, stochastic economic models. Three major sources of uncertainty in application of a multiyear discrete stochastic model to evaluate user preparedness and response to drought are: (1) the assumption of independence of yearly weather conditions, (2) linguistic vagueness in the definition of drought itself, and (3) the duration of drought. One means of addressing these uncertainties is to re-cast drought as a stochastic, multiyear process using a “fuzzy” semi-Markov process. In this paper, we review “crisp” versus “fuzzy” representations of drought and show how fuzzy semi-Markov processes can aid researchers in developing more robust multiyear, discrete stochastic models.展开更多
A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc....A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc. The availability of the system is discussed by using Markov renewal theory, Laplace transform and probability analysis methods. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.展开更多
In the present paper, to build model of two-line queuing system with losses GI/G/2/0, the approach introduced by V.S. Korolyuk and A.F. Turbin, is used. It is based on application of the theory of semi-Markov processe...In the present paper, to build model of two-line queuing system with losses GI/G/2/0, the approach introduced by V.S. Korolyuk and A.F. Turbin, is used. It is based on application of the theory of semi-Markov processes with arbitrary phase space of states. This approach allows us to omit some restrictions. The stationary characteristics of the system have been defined, assuming that the incoming flow of requests and their service times have distributions of general form. The particular cases of the system were considered. The used approach can be useful for modeling systems of various purposes.展开更多
文摘This article presents a semi-Markov process based approach to optimally select a portfolio consisting of credit risky bonds.The criteria to optimize the credit portfolio is based on l_(∞)-norm risk measure and the proposed optimization model is formulated as a linear programming problem.The input parameters to the optimization model are rate of returns of bonds which are obtained using credit ratings assuming that credit ratings of bonds follow a semi-Markov process.Modeling credit ratings by semi-Markov processes has several advantages over Markov chain models,i.e.,it addresses the ageing effect present in the credit rating dynamics.The transition probability matrices generated by semi-Markov process and initial credit ratings are used to generate rate of returns of bonds.The empirical performance of the proposed model is analyzed using the real data.Further,comparison of the proposed approach with the Markov chain approach is performed by obtaining the efficient frontiers for the two models.
文摘One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random processes with positive tendency and negative jump in this article. The first passage of the zero level of the process will be included as a random variable. The Laplace transforms for the distribution of this random variable is defined. The parameters of the distribution will be calculated on the basis of the final results.
基金The Joint Grant of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine(NASU)and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research(RFBR)2012-2013(No.12-02-90425)The Task Comprehensive Program of NAS U on the Scientific Space Research 2012-2016
文摘The possibility of describing the time-dependent processes of scattering by underlying surfaces and the clear sky, as well as the seasonal behaviour of the refractive index of troposphere by using nested semi-Markov processes has been consid- ered. Local Gaussian models can be used to describe the process inside each phase state. The possibility of describing the sta- tistics of reflections from the sea and the refractive index by using Kravchenko finite functions has been shown for the first time.
文摘Drought conditions at a given location evolve randomly through time and are typically characterized by severity and duration. Researchers interested in modeling the economic effects of drought on agriculture or other water users often capture the stochastic nature of drought and its conditions via multiyear, stochastic economic models. Three major sources of uncertainty in application of a multiyear discrete stochastic model to evaluate user preparedness and response to drought are: (1) the assumption of independence of yearly weather conditions, (2) linguistic vagueness in the definition of drought itself, and (3) the duration of drought. One means of addressing these uncertainties is to re-cast drought as a stochastic, multiyear process using a “fuzzy” semi-Markov process. In this paper, we review “crisp” versus “fuzzy” representations of drought and show how fuzzy semi-Markov processes can aid researchers in developing more robust multiyear, discrete stochastic models.
文摘A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc. The availability of the system is discussed by using Markov renewal theory, Laplace transform and probability analysis methods. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.
文摘In the present paper, to build model of two-line queuing system with losses GI/G/2/0, the approach introduced by V.S. Korolyuk and A.F. Turbin, is used. It is based on application of the theory of semi-Markov processes with arbitrary phase space of states. This approach allows us to omit some restrictions. The stationary characteristics of the system have been defined, assuming that the incoming flow of requests and their service times have distributions of general form. The particular cases of the system were considered. The used approach can be useful for modeling systems of various purposes.
