Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainti...Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.展开更多
The traditional energy hub based model has difficulties in clearly describing the state transition and transition conditions of the energy unit in the integrated energy system(IES).Therefore,this study proposes a stat...The traditional energy hub based model has difficulties in clearly describing the state transition and transition conditions of the energy unit in the integrated energy system(IES).Therefore,this study proposes a state transition modeling method for an IES based on a cyber-physical system(CPS)to optimize the state transition of energy unit in the IES.This method uses the physical,integration,and optimization layers as a three-layer modeling framework.The physical layer is used to describe the physical models of energy units in the IES.In the integration layer,the information flow is integrated into the physical model of energy unit in the IES to establish the state transition model,and the transition conditions between different states of the energy unit are given.The optimization layer aims to minimize the operating cost of the IES and enables the operating state of energy units to be transferred to the target state.Numerical simulations show that,compared with the traditional modeling method,the state transition modeling method based on CPS achieves the observability of the operating state of the energy unit and its state transition in the dispatching cycle,which obtains an optimal state of the energy unit and further reduces the system operating costs.展开更多
In integrated energy systems(IESs),traditional fixed time-interval dispatching scheme is unable to adapt to the need of dynamic properties of the transient network,demand response characteristics,dispatching time scal...In integrated energy systems(IESs),traditional fixed time-interval dispatching scheme is unable to adapt to the need of dynamic properties of the transient network,demand response characteristics,dispatching time scales in energy subsystems and renewable power uncertainties.This scheme may easily result in uneconomic source-grid-load-storage operations in IES.In this paper,we propose a dispatching method for IES based on dynamic time-interval of model predictive control(MPC).We firstly build models for energy sub-systems and multi-energy loads in the power-gas-heat IES.Then,we develop an innovative optimization method leveraging trajectory deviation control,energy control,and cost control frameworks in MPC to handle the requirements and constraints over the timeinterval of dispatching.Finally,a dynamic programming algorithm is introduced to efficiently solve the proposed method.Experiments and simulation results prove the effectiveness of the method.展开更多
Multi-energy microgrids,such as integrated electricity-heat-gas microgrids(IEHS-MG),have been widely recognized as one of the most convenient ways to connect wind power(WP).However,the inherent intermittency and uncer...Multi-energy microgrids,such as integrated electricity-heat-gas microgrids(IEHS-MG),have been widely recognized as one of the most convenient ways to connect wind power(WP).However,the inherent intermittency and uncertainty of WP still render serious power curtailment in the operation.To this end,this paper presents an IEHS-MG model equipped with power-to-gas technology,thermal storage,electricity storage,and an electrical boiler for improving WP utilization efficiency.Moreover,a two-stage distributionally robust economic dispatch model is constructed for the IEHSMG,with the objective of minimizing total operational costs.The first stage determines the day-ahead decisions including on/off state and set-point decisions.The second stage adjusts the day-ahead decision according to real-time WP realization.Furthermore,WP uncertainty is characterized through an Imprecise Dirichlet model(IDM)based ambiguity set.Finally,Column-and-Constraints Generation method is utilized to solve the model,which provides a day-ahead economic dispatch strategy that immunizes against the worst-case WP distributions.Case studies demonstrate the presented IEHS-MG model outperforms traditional IEHS-MG model in terms of WP utilization and dispatch economics,and that distributionally robust optimization can handle uncertainty effectively.展开更多
针对国际学界提出的电网智能运行中风险限制调度的框架,新建考虑线路阻塞的风险限制调度多步整合模型,包括日前三步整合调度模型、时前两步整合调度模型和紧急调度模型。日前三步整合调度是在日前调度中计入预估的时前、紧急调度的随机...针对国际学界提出的电网智能运行中风险限制调度的框架,新建考虑线路阻塞的风险限制调度多步整合模型,包括日前三步整合调度模型、时前两步整合调度模型和紧急调度模型。日前三步整合调度是在日前调度中计入预估的时前、紧急调度的随机信息;时前两步整合调度计入了预估的紧急调度随机信息。随机信息主要考虑风电出力,并作为模型中的随机变量。通过定义线路阻塞条件风险(conditional value at risk,CVa R)值,将线路安全约束转化为线路阻塞风险限制约束,实现线路阻塞的风险限制调度。仿真结果表明:线路阻塞CVa R值的限值与置信水平两个值取值合理时,多步整合调度与传统的日前、时前、紧急三步调度相比运行成本较低;当前值限定在一定水平时,后值越大,多步整合调度的成本越高;后值一定时,前值越大,多步整合调度的成本越低。线路阻塞风险限制的多步整合调度模型是解决电力系统智能运行中风险限制调度的有效途径。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2018YFE0122200).
文摘Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52107108)。
文摘The traditional energy hub based model has difficulties in clearly describing the state transition and transition conditions of the energy unit in the integrated energy system(IES).Therefore,this study proposes a state transition modeling method for an IES based on a cyber-physical system(CPS)to optimize the state transition of energy unit in the IES.This method uses the physical,integration,and optimization layers as a three-layer modeling framework.The physical layer is used to describe the physical models of energy units in the IES.In the integration layer,the information flow is integrated into the physical model of energy unit in the IES to establish the state transition model,and the transition conditions between different states of the energy unit are given.The optimization layer aims to minimize the operating cost of the IES and enables the operating state of energy units to be transferred to the target state.Numerical simulations show that,compared with the traditional modeling method,the state transition modeling method based on CPS achieves the observability of the operating state of the energy unit and its state transition in the dispatching cycle,which obtains an optimal state of the energy unit and further reduces the system operating costs.
基金supported in part by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFB0905000)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61873121)Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.SGTJDK00DWJS1800232)
文摘In integrated energy systems(IESs),traditional fixed time-interval dispatching scheme is unable to adapt to the need of dynamic properties of the transient network,demand response characteristics,dispatching time scales in energy subsystems and renewable power uncertainties.This scheme may easily result in uneconomic source-grid-load-storage operations in IES.In this paper,we propose a dispatching method for IES based on dynamic time-interval of model predictive control(MPC).We firstly build models for energy sub-systems and multi-energy loads in the power-gas-heat IES.Then,we develop an innovative optimization method leveraging trajectory deviation control,energy control,and cost control frameworks in MPC to handle the requirements and constraints over the timeinterval of dispatching.Finally,a dynamic programming algorithm is introduced to efficiently solve the proposed method.Experiments and simulation results prove the effectiveness of the method.
文摘Multi-energy microgrids,such as integrated electricity-heat-gas microgrids(IEHS-MG),have been widely recognized as one of the most convenient ways to connect wind power(WP).However,the inherent intermittency and uncertainty of WP still render serious power curtailment in the operation.To this end,this paper presents an IEHS-MG model equipped with power-to-gas technology,thermal storage,electricity storage,and an electrical boiler for improving WP utilization efficiency.Moreover,a two-stage distributionally robust economic dispatch model is constructed for the IEHSMG,with the objective of minimizing total operational costs.The first stage determines the day-ahead decisions including on/off state and set-point decisions.The second stage adjusts the day-ahead decision according to real-time WP realization.Furthermore,WP uncertainty is characterized through an Imprecise Dirichlet model(IDM)based ambiguity set.Finally,Column-and-Constraints Generation method is utilized to solve the model,which provides a day-ahead economic dispatch strategy that immunizes against the worst-case WP distributions.Case studies demonstrate the presented IEHS-MG model outperforms traditional IEHS-MG model in terms of WP utilization and dispatch economics,and that distributionally robust optimization can handle uncertainty effectively.
文摘针对国际学界提出的电网智能运行中风险限制调度的框架,新建考虑线路阻塞的风险限制调度多步整合模型,包括日前三步整合调度模型、时前两步整合调度模型和紧急调度模型。日前三步整合调度是在日前调度中计入预估的时前、紧急调度的随机信息;时前两步整合调度计入了预估的紧急调度随机信息。随机信息主要考虑风电出力,并作为模型中的随机变量。通过定义线路阻塞条件风险(conditional value at risk,CVa R)值,将线路安全约束转化为线路阻塞风险限制约束,实现线路阻塞的风险限制调度。仿真结果表明:线路阻塞CVa R值的限值与置信水平两个值取值合理时,多步整合调度与传统的日前、时前、紧急三步调度相比运行成本较低;当前值限定在一定水平时,后值越大,多步整合调度的成本越高;后值一定时,前值越大,多步整合调度的成本越低。线路阻塞风险限制的多步整合调度模型是解决电力系统智能运行中风险限制调度的有效途径。
