This paper describes the development of a T-year design tide hydrograph （DTH）. A core innovation is that the proposed technique uses the design risk threshold and copula-based conditional risk probability to analyze...This paper describes the development of a T-year design tide hydrograph （DTH）. A core innovation is that the proposed technique uses the design risk threshold and copula-based conditional risk probability to analyze the optimal combination of high waters and low waters of the DTH. A brief description of the method is presented. The in situ semi-diurnal tide data at the coast of Jiangsu Province in China are analyzed. Marginal distributions for high waters and low waters of tides are examined. Furthermore, the joint distributions, condition risk probabilities and risk thresholds of high waters and low waters are presented. Results of the DTH from the proposed method are compared with those from the traditional same-multiple enlarging design approach. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is preferable.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Ministry of Water Resources Special Funds for Scientific Research Projects of Public Welfare Industry(Grant No.201001070)Jiangsu Province Science and Technology(Grant Nos.BM2014397 and BM2016031)
文摘This paper describes the development of a T-year design tide hydrograph （DTH）. A core innovation is that the proposed technique uses the design risk threshold and copula-based conditional risk probability to analyze the optimal combination of high waters and low waters of the DTH. A brief description of the method is presented. The in situ semi-diurnal tide data at the coast of Jiangsu Province in China are analyzed. Marginal distributions for high waters and low waters of tides are examined. Furthermore, the joint distributions, condition risk probabilities and risk thresholds of high waters and low waters are presented. Results of the DTH from the proposed method are compared with those from the traditional same-multiple enlarging design approach. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is preferable.
