Clinical observation on the treatment of severe hand-foot-mouth disease with antelope horn powder combined with auricular point application

Objective:To explore the Clinical observation on the treatment of severe hand-foot-mouth disease with antelope horn powder combined with auricular point application.Methods:From July 2016 to June 2018,90 children were randomly divided into control group(n=30),treatment group(n=30)and control group(n=30).The control group was treated with routine western medicine,the treatment group 1 was treated with oral antelope horn powder on the basis of control group,the second group was treated with auricular point application on the basis of treatment group 1,and the time of symptom relief and clinical cure were observed in each group.Related immune function and related inflammatory factors,serum neuron-specific enolase(NSE),safety index.Results:In treatment group 1,the time of herpes regression,antipyretic,antispasmodic time and clinical cure time were shorter than those of control group,and the time of treatment 2 group was shorter than that of group 1(P<0.05).The levels of CD3,CD4 and CD8 were increased after treatment in the three groups,especially in the treatment group(P<0.05),and the levels of TNF-毩αand IL-2,IL-6,IL-10 were decreased after treatment in the three groups,especially in the treatment group(P<0.05).NSE decreased after treatment in three groups,especially in treatment group 2(P<0.05).Conclusion:The application of antelope horn powder combined with auricular point application can obviously improve the severe hand,foot and mouth disease,and the clinical curative effect is definite.It is worth popularizing and applying in clinical practice.

Relationship between nutritional therapy and beneficial bacteria ratio in severe disease

Objective:To evaluate relationship between changes in the beneficial bacteria in intensive care unit(ICU)patients and nutritional therapy type.Methods:Ten patients aged≥18 years admitted to the ICU between January and December 2020,were included.Good enteral nutrition was defined as early achievement of target calorie intake through enteral feeding.The ratio of beneficial bacteria at the first and second bowel movements after each patient’s admission was calculated and the patients were classified into the increase or decrease group.Among all patients,five each were in the increase and decrease groups.We investigated patient background,changes in sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE)Ⅱscores,nutritional doses or methods,and clinical outcomes.Results:No relationship was found between changes in the ratio of beneficial bacteria and changes in SOFA/APACHEⅡscores at the time of admission.The rate of good enteral nutrition was significantly higher in the increase group than in the decrease group(4/5 vs.0/5,P=0.01).Conclusions:An increase in beneficial bacteria may be significantly related to the early establishment of enteral nutrition.In the future,accumulating cases may make it possible to establish a new nutritional strategy for critically ill patients from an intestinal microbiota perspective.

Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control Strategies of a Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Model with Treatment and Vaccination Interventions

In this article, the transmission dynamics of a Hand-Foot-Mouth disease model with treatment and vaccination interventions are studied. We calculated the basic reproduction number and proved the global stability of disease-free equilibrium when R0 R0 > 1. Meanwhile, we obtained the optimal control strategies minimizing the cost of intervention and minimizing the infected person. We also give some numerical simulations to verify our theoretical results.

Plant Disease Severity Assessment Based on Machine Learning and Deep Learning: A Survey

The world’s agricultural production suffers huge losses estimated between 20% and 40% annually. 40% to 50% of such losses are due to pest and diseases which cause significant economic losses every year. Precise assessment of severity is crucial for suitable management of crop diseases. It helps famers to avoid yield losses, reduce production costs, ensure good disease management and so on. This paper is a review of plant diseases severity estimation solutions proposed by researchers the last few years and based on Image Processing Techniques (IPT), classical Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The analysis of these solutions has allowed us to identify their limitations and potential challenges in plant disease severity assessment.

Cardiovascular Cast Model Fabrication and Casting Effectiveness Evaluation in Fetus with Severe Congenital Heart Disease or Normal Heart

To investigate the application and effectiveness of vascular corrosion technique in preparing fetal cardiovascular cast models, 10 normal fetal heart specimens with other congenital disease（control group） and 18 specimens with severe congenital heart disease（case group） from induced abortions were enrolled in this study from March 2013 to June 2015 in our hospital. Cast models were prepared by injecting casting material into vascular lumen to demonstrate real geometries of fetal cardiovascular system. Casting effectiveness was analyzed in terms of local anatomic structures and different anatomical levels（including overall level, atrioventricular and great vascular system, left-sided and right-sided heart）, as well as different trimesters of pregnancy. In our study, all specimens were successfully casted. Casting effectiveness analysis of local anatomic structures showed a mean score from 1.90±1.45 to 3.60±0.52, without significant differences between case and control groups in most local anatomic structures except left ventricle, which had a higher score in control group（P=0.027）. Inter-group comparison of casting effectiveness in different anatomical levels showed no significant differences between the two groups. Intra-group comparison also revealed undifferentiated casting effectiveness between atrioventricular and great vascular system, or left-sided and right-sided heart in corresponding group. Third-trimester group had a significantly higher perfusion score in great vascular system than second-trimester group（P=0.046）, while the other anatomical levels displayed no such difference. Vascular corrosion technique can be successfully used in fabrication of fetal cardiovascular cast model. It is also a reliable method to demonstrate three-dimensional anatomy of severe congenital heart disease and normal heart in fetus.

Fear can be more harmful than the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in controlling the corona virus disease 2019 epidemic

The current corona virus disease 2019 outbreak caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 started in Wuhan,China in December 2019 and has put the world on alert.To safeguard Chinese citizens and to strengthen global health security,China has made great efforts to control the epidemic.Many in the global community have joined China to limit the epidemic.However,discrimination and prejudice driven by fear or misinformation have been flowing globally,superseding evidence and jeopardizing the anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 efforts.We analyze this phenomenon and its underlying causes and suggest practical solutions.

Accelerated Infliximab Induction for Severe Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding in a Young Patient with Crohn’s Disease:A Case Report

BACKGROUND Severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding(SLGIB)is a rare complication of Crohn's disease(CD).The treatment of these patients is a clinical challenge.Monoclonal anti-TNFαantibody(IFX)can induce relatively fast mucosal healing.It has been reported for the treatment of SLGIB,but there are few reports on accelerated IFX induction in CD patients with SLGIB.CASE SUMMARY A 16-year-old boy with a history of recurrent oral ulcers for nearly 1 year presented to the Gastroenterology Department of our hospital complaining of recurrent periumbilical pain for more than 1 mo and having bloody stool 4 times within 2 wk.Colonoscopy showed multiple areas of inflammation of the colon and a sigmoid colon ulcer with active bleeding.Hemostasis was immediately performed under endoscopy.The physical examination of the patient showed scattered small ulcers in the lower lip of the mouth and small cracks in the perianal area.Combined with his medical history,physical examination,laboratory examinations with high C-reactive protein(CRP),platelet count(PLT),erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR)and fecal calprotectin levels,imaging examinations and pathology,a diagnosis of CD was taken into consideration.According to the pediatric CD activity index 47.5,methylprednisolone(40 mg QD)was given intravenously.The abdominal pain disappeared,and CRP,PLT,and ESR levels decreased significantly after the treatment.Unfortunately,he had a large amount of bloody stool again after 1 wk of methylprednisolone treatment,and his hemoglobin level decreased quickly.Although infliximab(IFX)(5 mg/kg)was given as a combination therapy regimen,he still had bloody stool with his hemoglobin level decreasing from 112 g/L to 80 g/L in a short time,so-called SLGIB.With informed consent,accelerated IFX(5 mg/kg)induction was given 7 days after initial presentation.The bleeding then stopped.Eight weeks after the treatment,repeat colonoscopy showed mucosal healing;thus far,no recurrent bleeding has occurred,and the patient is symptom-free.CONCLUSION This case highlights the importance of accelerated IFX induction in SLGIB secondary to CD,especially after steroid hormone treatment.

Analysis of prognosis on patients with severe viral hepatitis using the model for end-stage liver disease

AIM: To study the practical use of the model for endstage liver disease (MELD) on clinic and assess its validity by the concordance (C)-statistic in predicting the prognosis of the patient with severe viral hepatitis.METHODS: One hundred and twenty-one patients were divided into plasma exchange group and non-plasma exchange group, and were graded with MELD formula.The death rate was observed within 3 mo.RESULTS: Eighty-one patients died within 3 mo (35 cases in PE group, 46 cases in non-PE group). The mortality of patients in PE group whose MELD score between 20-30and 30-40 were 31.6% and 57.7%, respectively, but in non-PE cases they were 67.6%, 81.3% respectively.There was significant difference between PE group and non-PE group (P＜0.05). However, the mortality of patients whose MELD score higher than 40 were 93.3% in PE group and 100% in non-PE group and there was no significant difference between the two groups (P= 0.65＞0.05). The optimal cut-off values of MELD to predict the prognosis of patients were 30 in PE group whose sensitivity, specificity and C-statistic were 80.0%, 52.0% and 0.777, but in non-PE group they were 25, 82.6%, 86.7% and 0.869, respectively.CONCLUSION: The MELD score can act as a disease severity index for patients with severe viral hepatitis, and the mortality of the patient increases with the increase of the MELD score. The MELD can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of patients with severe viral hepatitis.

Investigation on Factors Associated with Severe Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease

Objective To analyze the clinical and laboratory features of patients with mild and severe HFMD to identify early predictive or diagnostic markers for severe cases. Methods Samples of feces, nasopharyngeal-swab specimens, peripheral blood, serum and cerebral spinal fluid were collected. Postmortem pathological examination was conducted on 2 dead patients with complication due to neurogenic pulmonary edema. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain-reaction(RT-PCR), culture and isolation of enterovirus 71(EV71) were performed to detect EV71 infection. Both univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to identify factors associated with severe cases. Results EV71 was mainly responsible for HFMD. In this study, 5 isolated EV71 strains belonged to C4 gene subtype. Compared with mild patients, EV71-RNA detection rate was higher and Cox A16 detection rate was lower among severe patients(P < 0.01). Inflammatory cell infiltration in the lung, cardiac and liver tissues were mild by postmortem pathological examination. It was found that body temperature, vomitting, limb tremor, neutrophil, blood glucose and EV71 infection were significantly related to the severe cases by univariate logistic analysis. However, after multivariate logistic regression analysis, only vomiting(OR 16.1, CI 2.3-110.5, P < 0.01) and limb tremor(OR 117.6, CI 13.8-1004.5, P < 0.01) were significantly and independently correlated with the severe cases.Conclusions EV71 was mainly responsible for HFMD, particularly for severe cases. Vomiting and limb tremor were predictive markers for severe cases.

Granulo-monocyto apheresis is more effective in mild ulcerative colitis than in moderate to severe disease

AIM:To evaluate whether the effectiveness of Granulomonocyto apheresis(GMA),a technique that consists of the extracorporeal removal of granulocytes and monocytes from the peripheral blood,might vary according to the severity of ulcerative colitis(UC)in patients with mild to moderate-severe disease UC activity.METHODS:We retrospectively reviewed prospectively collected data of patients undergoing GMA at our inflammatory bowel disease centre who had at least a 6 mo of follow-up.The demographics,clinical and laboratory data were extracted from the patients’charts and electronic records.The severity of UC was scored according to the Modified Truelove Witts Severity Index(MTWSI).A clinical response was defined as a decrease from baseline of≥2 points or a value of MTWSI≤2 points.RESULTS:A total of 41(24 males/17 females;meanage 47 years)patients were included in the study.After GMA cycle completion,21/28(75%)of mild UC patients showed a clinical response compared with 7/13(54%)of patients with moderate to severe disease(P=0.27).At 6-mo,14/28(50%)of the mild UC patients maintained a clinical response compared with 2/13(15%)of the patients with moderate to severe disease(P=0.04).After the GMA cycle completion and during the 6-mo follow up period,13/16(81%)and 9/16(56%)of mild UC patients with intolerance,resistance and contraindications to immunosuppressants and/or biologics showed a clinical response compared with 2/6(33%)and 0/6(0%)of patients with moderate to severe disease activity with these characteristics(P=0.05and P=0.04,respectively).CONCLUSION:Patients with mild UC benefit from GMA more than patients with moderate to severe disease in the short-term period.GMA should be considered a valid therapeutic option in cases of contraindications to immunosuppressants,corticosteroids and/or biologics.

Fixed-point Monitoring of Vaccine Immune Effects on Severe Animal Diseases in Livestock and Poultry Breeding Fields

In order to reveal the immune antibody levels and immune effect of livestock and poultry in the locality,we performed antibody surveillance on severe animal diseases in 17 livestock and poultry fields in six administrative districts of Wuhan City. The results showed that the vaccines had a good protective efficacy on highly pathogenic avian influenza( HPAI) and Newcastle disease( ND) in Wuhan City. The whole antibody levels kept above the ministerial standard( 】 70%).However,the vaccine immunity of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome( PRRS),swine fever( SF) and foot and mouth disease( FMD) was still poorly protective. The data indicated that the vaccines are protecting the severe animal diseases well,but there are still some potential security holes in some administrative districts.

Investigation of Prevalence Rate of Acute Severe Altitude Diseaseof Construction Groups at High Altitude

Objective: To know the prevalence rate of the acute severe altitude disease of the crowds who are working on the high altitude and the influential foctors upon the people. Method By epidemiology,a survey of 27606 persons who are working on the plateau has been made in the past three years,of which 229 persons had got the disease. 8175 persons who had received finer basic preventions in the group (Group A), has been compared with 19430 persons who had a weak or no basic provention in the group (Group B); the groups working on the plateau with 3 different elevations of above～3600, ～4600 & 5072 meters sea level have been compared. Resuts: The prevalence rate is 0.83% in total groaps, of wich, high altitude pulmonary edema is 0.50%, high altitude cerebral edema is 0.28%, the patients who has got both the above diseases is 0.05%. The prevalance rates of the above in Group B and those of higher elevation are higher than those in Group A. 0.32% in Group A, and 1.04% in Group B.(x2=36.95, p<0.001);the prevalence rate on the 3 different high elevations are 0.00%, 0.68% and 1.34% in proper order. The prevalence rate of individuals groups in the highest 4.82%(the first year) and 2.26% (the next year ) and all the diseases came on the groups working on the highest elevation areas. Conclusion: The prevalence rate of acute severe plateau disease is very stern, the main influential factors are the height above the sea level, and the level of basic prvention for the crowds. Enhancing the protection of the labourers and medical safeguard, and social psychological adaption can cut down the prevalence rate, and this is the first important problem to solve for the plateau medicine and support from the society.

Utilization of edge-to-edge valve plastic technique to correct severe tricuspid regurgitation in patients with congenital heart disease

Objective Tricuspid regurgitation is often associated in patients with congenital heart disease. Significant morbidity and mortality are related to tricuspid valve replacement. Tricuspid valve plasty is still a preferred choice. This report deals with our surgical experience in using edge-to-edge valve plasty technique to correct severe

Clinical value of the Toronto inflammatory bowel disease global endoscopic reporting score in ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND Endoscopic evaluation in diagnosing and managing ulcerative colitis(UC)is becoming increasingly important.Several endoscopic scoring systems have been established,including the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity(UCEIS)score and Mayo Endoscopic Subscore(MES).Furthermore,the Toronto Inflammatory Bowel Disease Global Endoscopic Reporting(TIGER)score for UC has recently been proposed;however,its clinical value remains unclear.AIM To investigate the clinical value of the TIGER score in UC by comparing it with the UCEIS score and MES.METHODS This retrospective study included 166 patients with UC who underwent total colonoscopy between January 2017 and March 2023 at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University(Qingdao,China).We retrospectively analysed endoscopic scores,laboratory and clinical data,treatment,and readmissions within 1 year.Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient,receiver operating characteristic curve,and univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows,version 26.0(IBM Corp.,Armonk,NY,United States)and GraphPad Prism version 9.0.0 for Windows(GraphPad Software,Boston,Massachusetts,United States).RESULTS The TIGER score significantly correlated with the UCEIS score and MES(r=0.721,0.626,both P<0.001),showed good differentiating values for clinical severity among mild,moderate,and severe UC[8(4-112.75)vs 210(109–219)vs 328(219–426),all P<0.001],and exhibited predictive value in diagnosing patients with severe UC[area under the curve(AUC)=0.897,P<0.001].Additionally,the TIGER(r=0.639,0,551,0.488,0.376,all P<0.001)and UCEIS scores(r=0.622,0,540,0.494,and 0.375,all P<0.001)showed stronger correlations with laboratory and clinical parameters,including C-reactive protein,erythrocyte sedimentation rate,length of hospitalisation,and hospitalisation costs,than MES(r=0.509,0,351,0.339,and 0.270,all P<0.001).The TIGER score showed the best predictability for patients'recent advanced treatment,including systemic corticosteroids,biologics,or immunomodulators(AUC=0.848,P<0.001)and 1-year readmission(AUC=0.700,P<0.001)compared with the UCEIS score(AUC=0.762,P<0.001;0.627,P<0.05)and MES(AUC=0.684,P<0.001;0.578,P=0.132).Furthermore,a TIGER score of≥317 was identified as an independent risk factor for advanced UC treatment(P=0.011).CONCLUSION The TIGER score may be superior to the UCIES score and MES in improving the accuracy of clinical disease severity assessment,guiding therapeutic decision-making,and predicting short-term prognosis.

Clinical and neuroimaging features of enterovirus71 related acute flaccid paralysis in patients with hand-foot-mouth disease

Objective:To investigate clinical and neuroimaging features of enterovirus71(EV71) related acute flaccid paralysis in patients with hand-fool-mouth disease.Methods:Nine patients with acute flaccid paralysis met the criterion of EV71 induced hand-foot-mouth disease underwent spinal and brain MR imaging from May 2008 to Sep 2012.Results:One extremity flaccid was found in four cases(3 with lower limb,1 with upper limb),two limbs flaccid in three cases(2 with lower limbs,1 with upper limbs),and four limbs flaccid in two cases.Spinal MRI studies showed lesion with high signal in T2-weighted images(T2WI) and low signal T1-weighted images(T1WI) in the spinal cord of all nine cases,and the lesions were mainly in bilateral and unilateral anterior hom of cervical spinal cord and spinal cord below thoracic 9(T9) level.In addition,the midbrain,pons, and medulla,which were involved in 3 cases with brainstem encephalitis,demonstrated abnormal signal.Moreover,spinal cord contrast MRI studies showed mild enhancement in corresponding anterior hom of the involved side,and strong enhancement in its ventral root.Conclusions: EV71 related acute flaccid paralysis in patients with hand-foot-mouth disease mainly affected the anterior hom regions and ventral root of cervical spinal cord and spinal cord below T9 level. MR imaging could efficiendy show the characteristic pattern and extent of the lesions which correlated well with the clinical features.

Predictors of disease severity in ulcerative colitis patients from Southwestern Ontario

AIM:To understand the demographic characteristics of patients in Southwestern Ontario,Canada with ulcerative colitis(UC)in order to predict disease severity. METHODS:Records from 1996 to 2001 were exam- ined to create a database of UC patients seen in the London Health Sciences Centre South Street Hospital Inflammatory Bowel Disease Clinic.To be included, patients'charts were required to have information of their disease presentation and a minimum of 5 years of follow-up.Charts were reviewed using standardized data collection forms.Disease severity was generated during the chart review process,and non-endoscopic Mayo Score criteria were collected into a composite. RESULTS:One hundred and two consecutive patients'data were entered into the database.Demographic analyses revealed that 51%of the patients were male, the mean age at diagnosis was 39 years,13.7%had a first degree relative with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),61.8%were nonsmokers and 24.5%were ex-smokers.In 22.5%of patients the disease was limited to the rectum,in 21.6%disease was limited to the sigmoid colon,in 22.5%disease was limited to the left colon,and 32.4%of patients had pancolitis. Standard multiple regression analysis which regressed a composite of physician global assessment of disease severity,average number of bowel movements,and average amount of blood in bowel movements on year of diagnosis and age at time of diagnosis was significant,R 2=0.306,F(7,74)=4.66,P<0.01. Delay from symptoms to diagnosis of UC,gender, family history of IBD,smoking status and disease severity at the time of diagnosis didnot significantly predict the composite measure. CONCLUSION:UC severity is associated with younger age at diagnosis and year of diagnosis in a longitudinal cohort of UC patients,and may identify prognostic UC indicators.

Quantitative computed tomography analysis for stratifying the severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019

To examine the feasibility of using a computer tool for stratifying the severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19)based on computed tomography(CT)images.We retrospectively examined 44 confirmed COVID-19 cases.All cases were evaluated separately by radiologists(visually)and through an in-house computer software.The degree of lesions was visually scored by the radiologist,as follows,for each of the 5 lung lobes:0,no lesion present;1,<1/3 involvement;2,>1/3 and<2/3 involvement;and 3,>2/3 involvement.Lesion density was assessed based on the proportion of ground-glass opacity(GGO),consolidation and fibrosis of the lesions.The parameters obtained using the computer tool included lung volume(mL),lesion volume(mL),lesion percentage(%),and mean lesion density(HU)of the whole lung,right lung,left lung,and each lobe.The scores obtained by the radiologists and quantitative results generated by the computer software were tested for correlation.A Chi-square test was used to test the consistency of radiologist-and computer-derived lesion percentage in the right/left lung,upper/lower lobe,and each of the 5 lobes.The results showed a strong to moderate correlation between lesion percentage scores obtained by radiologists and the computer software(r ranged from 0.7679 to 0.8373,P<0.05),and a moderate correlation between the proportion of GGO and mean lesion density(r=-0.5894,P<0.05),and proportion of consolidation and mean lesion density(r=0.6282,P<0.05).Computer-aided quantification showed a statistical significant higher lesion percentage for lower lobes than that assessed by the radiologists(x^2=8.160,P=0.004).Our experiments demonstrated that the computer tool could reliably and accurately assess the severity and distribution of pneumonia on CT scans.

Relationship between high sensitivity C-reactive protein and angiographic severity of coronary artery disease

Background Coronary artery disease(CAD)remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality.Cytokines play a potential role in atherosclerosis pathogenesis and progression.We investigated the association between high sensitive C-reactive protein(hs CRP)and severity of CAD.Methods CAD patients were stratified according to hs CRP cut-off value into high levels hs CRP group(≥8.4 mg/L)and low levels hs CRP group(<8.4 mg/L).Severity of CAD was assessed according to artery stenosis degree and the number of vessel involved.Statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences(SPSS,version 23.0).Results The mean age was 60.3±11.0 years.The level of hs CRP was increased and ranged from 0.2 to 1020.0 mg/L.Biochemical risk factors and severity of CAD didn’t show significant differences between the two groups.In multivariate linear analysis,cardiac troponin I(c Tn I)and serum amyloid A(SAA)were predictors of hs CRP.As shown in receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis performed in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI)and compared to myonecrosis biomarkers,hs CRP(area under the curve(AUC):0.905;95%CI:0.844-0.966;P<0.001)could be a powerful predictor marker in evaluating the infarct size after myocardial infarction but not better than c Tn I.Conclusions Hs CRP levels were not associated with the severity of CAD but could be useful in the evaluation of myocardial necrosis in patients with STEMI.

A Survey of the Major Sorghum Production Regions for Foliar and Panicle Diseases during the 2022 Growing Season in Senegal, West Africa

Sorghum is a vital commodity and greatly contributes to the daily calorie needs for millions of the inhabitants in Senegal, West Africa. Yet, sorghum productivity and profitability are impacted by diseases. In the 2022 growing season, 122 farmers’ fields across 7 regions, notably Diourbel, Fatick, Kaffrine, Kaolack, Kolda, Tambacounda, and Thies were surveyed for foliar and panicle diseases. During the survey, stops were made at 30 km intervals and at each stop, 2 - 5 fields were evaluated. In each field, 40 plants mostly at soft to early hard dough stages of development were assessed using a W-shaped pattern to cover the whole field. A total of 13 diseases, including leaf blight, anthracnose, Zonate leaf spot, Sooty stripe, rough leaf spot, oval leaf spot, long smut, grain mold, and covered kernel smut were documented. The most predominant diseases were leaf blight, anthracnose, and zonate leaf spot. The prevalence of leaf blight was 100%, while anthracnose and zonate leaf spot were found in 93 out of the 122 fields surveyed, indicating a 76% prevalence, respectively. Across the regions, the prevalence of rough leaf spot was 47%, covered kernel smut (32%), oval leaf spot (19%) and target leaf spot (19%). Mean incidence of leaf blight was high in all regions, ranging from 94% (Kaolack) to 100% (Fatick and Tambacounda). The highest mean incidence of anthracnose (62%) and covered kernel smut (16%) was noted in Tambacounda region. In the region of Thies, the highest mean incidence of zonate leaf spot (49%) was recorded. The mean severity of leaf blight (37%) was highest on plants assessed in the region of Kaffrine, followed by those in the regions of Kaolack, Tambacounda, and Kolda. Anthracnose infection was most intense on plants evaluated in Kolda, while zonate leaf spot was most severe in the region of Tambacounda. Fields with incidences of 85% and above were considered as “hotspots” to evaluate sorghum germplasm for disease resistance. This survey is significant because the information obtained will be beneficial to plant pathologists, sorghum producers, government officials, and funding agencies to prioritize research projects that ensure productivity and food security.

Application of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Wuhan,China

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.