Note on:“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”

A recently published modeling approach for the penetration into adobe and previous approaches implicitly criticized are reviewed and discussed.This article contains a note on the paper titled“Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe:A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry”(DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dt.2018.07.017).Reply to the Note from Li Piani et al is linked to this article.

Development and validation of a model integrating clinical and coronary lesion-based functional assessment for longterm risk prediction in PCI patients

OBJECTIVES To establish a scoring system combining the ACEF score and the quantitative blood flow ratio(QFR) to improve the long-term risk prediction of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI).METHODS In this population-based cohort study, a total of 46 features, including patient clinical and coronary lesion characteristics, were assessed for analysis through machine learning models. The ACEF-QFR scoring system was developed using 1263consecutive cases of CAD patients after PCI in PANDA Ⅲ trial database. The newly developed score was then validated on the other remaining 542 patients in the cohort.RESULTS In both the Random Forest Model and the Deep Surv Model, age, renal function(creatinine), cardiac function(LVEF)and post-PCI coronary physiological index(QFR) were identified and confirmed to be significant predictive factors for 2-year adverse cardiac events. The ACEF-QFR score was constructed based on the developmental dataset and computed as age(years)/EF(%) + 1(if creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/d L) + 1(if post-PCI QFR ≤ 0.92). The performance of the ACEF-QFR scoring system was preliminarily evaluated in the developmental dataset, and then further explored in the validation dataset. The ACEF-QFR score showed superior discrimination(C-statistic = 0.651;95% CI: 0.611-0.691, P < 0.05 versus post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores) and excellent calibration(Hosmer–Lemeshow χ^(2)= 7.070;P = 0.529) for predicting 2-year patient-oriented composite endpoint(POCE). The good prognostic value of the ACEF-QFR score was further validated by multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analysis(adjusted HR = 1.89;95% CI: 1.18–3.04;log-rank P < 0.01) after stratified the patients into high-risk group and low-risk group.CONCLUSIONS An improved scoring system combining clinical and coronary lesion-based functional variables(ACEF-QFR)was developed, and its ability for prognostic prediction in patients with PCI was further validated to be significantly better than the post-PCI physiological index and other commonly used risk scores.

AHEVCVideo Steganalysis Method Using the Optimality of Motion Vector Prediction

Among steganalysis techniques,detection against MV(motion vector)domain-based video steganography in the HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)standard remains a challenging issue.For the purpose of improving the detection performance,this paper proposes a steganalysis method that can perfectly detectMV-based steganography in HEVC.Firstly,we define the local optimality of MVP(Motion Vector Prediction)based on the technology of AMVP(Advanced Motion Vector Prediction).Secondly,we analyze that in HEVC video,message embedding either usingMVP index orMVD(Motion Vector Difference)may destroy the above optimality of MVP.And then,we define the optimal rate of MVP as a steganalysis feature.Finally,we conduct steganalysis detection experiments on two general datasets for three popular steganographymethods and compare the performance with four state-ofthe-art steganalysis methods.The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed feature set.Furthermore,our method stands out for its practical applicability,requiring no model training and exhibiting low computational complexity,making it a viable solution for real-world scenarios.

Advancing Malaria Prediction in Uganda through AI and Geospatial Analysis Models

The resurgence of locally acquired malaria cases in the USA and the persistent global challenge of malaria transmission highlight the urgent need for research to prevent this disease. Despite significant eradication efforts, malaria remains a serious threat, particularly in regions like Africa. This study explores how integrating Gregor’s Type IV theory with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) improves our understanding of disease dynamics, especially Malaria transmission patterns in Uganda. By combining data-driven algorithms, artificial intelligence, and geospatial analysis, the research aims to determine the most reliable predictors of Malaria incident rates and assess the impact of different factors on transmission. Using diverse predictive modeling techniques including Linear Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Neural Network, and Random Forest, the study found that;Random Forest model outperformed the others, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy with an R2 of approximately 0.88 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0534, Antimalarial treatment was identified as the most influential factor, with mosquito net access associated with a significant reduction in incident rates, while higher temperatures correlated with increased rates. Our study concluded that the Random Forest model was effective in predicting malaria incident rates in Uganda and highlighted the significance of climate factors and preventive measures such as mosquito nets and antimalarial drugs. We recommended that districts with malaria hotspots lacking Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) coverage prioritize its implementation to mitigate incident rates, while those with high malaria rates in 2020 require immediate attention. By advocating for the use of appropriate predictive models, our research emphasized the importance of evidence-based decision-making in malaria control strategies, aiming to reduce transmission rates and save lives.

Privacy-Preserving Federated Mobility Prediction with Compound Data and Model Perturbation Mechanism

Human mobility prediction is important for many applications.However,training an accurate mobility prediction model requires a large scale of human trajectories,where privacy issues become an important problem.The rising federated learning provides us with a promising solution to this problem,which enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn a shared prediction model while keeping all the training data on the device,decoupling the ability to do machine learning from the need to store the data in the cloud.However,existing federated learningbased methods either do not provide privacy guarantees or have vulnerability in terms of privacy leakage.In this paper,we combine the techniques of data perturbation and model perturbation mechanisms and propose a privacy-preserving mobility prediction algorithm,where we add noise to the transmitted model and the raw data collaboratively to protect user privacy and keep the mobility prediction performance.Extensive experimental results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms the existing stateof-the-art mobility prediction method in terms of defensive performance against practical attacks while having comparable mobility prediction performance,demonstrating its effectiveness.

Two-Way Neural Network Performance PredictionModel Based onKnowledge Evolution and Individual Similarity

Predicting students’academic achievements is an essential issue in education,which can benefit many stakeholders,for instance,students,teachers,managers,etc.Compared with online courses such asMOOCs,students’academicrelateddata in the face-to-face physical teaching environment is usually sparsity,and the sample size is relativelysmall.It makes building models to predict students’performance accurately in such an environment even morechallenging.This paper proposes a Two-WayNeuralNetwork(TWNN)model based on the bidirectional recurrentneural network and graph neural network to predict students’next semester’s course performance using only theirprevious course achievements.Extensive experiments on a real dataset show that our model performs better thanthe baselines in many indicators.

Classifying rockburst with confidence:A novel conformal prediction approach

The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.

ASLP-DL—A Novel Approach Employing Lightweight Deep Learning Framework for Optimizing Accident Severity Level Prediction

Highway safety researchers focus on crash injury severity,utilizing deep learning—specifically,deep neural networks(DNN),deep convolutional neural networks(D-CNN),and deep recurrent neural networks(D-RNN)—as the preferred method for modeling accident severity.Deep learning’s strength lies in handling intricate relation-ships within extensive datasets,making it popular for accident severity level(ASL)prediction and classification.Despite prior success,there is a need for an efficient system recognizing ASL in diverse road conditions.To address this,we present an innovative Accident Severity Level Prediction Deep Learning(ASLP-DL)framework,incorporating DNN,D-CNN,and D-RNN models fine-tuned through iterative hyperparameter selection with Stochastic Gradient Descent.The framework optimizes hidden layers and integrates data augmentation,Gaussian noise,and dropout regularization for improved generalization.Sensitivity and factor contribution analyses identify influential predictors.Evaluated on three diverse crash record databases—NCDB 2018–2019,UK 2015–2020,and US 2016–2021—the D-RNN model excels with an ACC score of 89.0281%,a Roc Area of 0.751,an F-estimate of 0.941,and a Kappa score of 0.0629 over the NCDB dataset.The proposed framework consistently outperforms traditional methods,existing machine learning,and deep learning techniques.

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Urban Traffics Based on Deep GNN

Traffic prediction already plays a significant role in applications like traffic planning and urban management,but it is still difficult to capture the highly non-linear and complicated spatiotemporal correlations of traffic data.As well as to fulfil both long-termand short-termprediction objectives,a better representation of the temporal dependency and global spatial correlation of traffic data is needed.In order to do this,the Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network(S-GNN)is proposed in this research as amethod for traffic prediction.The S-GNN simultaneously accepts various traffic data as inputs and investigates the non-linear correlations between the variables.In terms of modelling,the road network is initially represented as a spatiotemporal directed graph,with the features of the samples at the time step being captured by a convolution module.In order to assign varying attention weights to various adjacent area nodes of the target node,the adjacent areas information of nodes in the road network is then aggregated using a graph network.The data is output using a fully connected layer at the end.The findings show that S-GNN can improve short-and long-term traffic prediction accuracy to a greater extent;in comparison to the control model,the RMSE of S-GNN is reduced by about 0.571 to 9.288 and the MAE(Mean Absolute Error)by about 0.314 to 7.678.The experimental results on two real datasets,Pe MSD7(M)and PEMS-BAY,also support this claim.

Prediction of treatment response to antipsychotic drugs for precision medicine approach to schizophrenia:randomized trials and multiomics analysis

Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).

Research on the Control Strategy of Micro Wind-Hydrogen Coupled System Based on Wind Power Prediction and Hydrogen Storage System Charging/Discharging Regulation

This paper addresses the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system,aiming to improve the power tracking capability of micro wind farms,the regulation capability of hydrogen storage systems,and to mitigate the volatility of wind power generation.A predictive control strategy for the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system is proposed based on the ultra-short-term wind power prediction,the hydrogen storage state division interval,and the daily scheduled output of wind power generation.The control strategy maximizes the power tracking capability,the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and the fluctuation of the joint output of the wind-hydrogen coupled system as the objective functions,and adaptively optimizes the control coefficients of the hydrogen storage interval and the output parameters of the system by the combined sigmoid function and particle swarm algorithm(sigmoid-PSO).Compared with the real-time control strategy,the proposed predictive control strategy can significantly improve the output tracking capability of the wind-hydrogen coupling system,minimize the gap between the actual output and the predicted output,significantly enhance the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and mitigate the power output fluctuation of the wind-hydrogen integrated system,which has a broad practical application prospect.

Composition optimization and performance prediction for ultra-stable water-based aerosol based on thermodynamic entropy theory

Water-based aerosol is widely used as an effective strategy in electro-optical countermeasure on the battlefield used to the preponderance of high efficiency,low cost and eco-friendly.Unfortunately,the stability of the water-based aerosol is always unsatisfactory due to the rapid evaporation and sedimentation of the aerosol droplets.Great efforts have been devoted to improve the stability of water-based aerosol by using additives with different composition and proportion.However,the lack of the criterion and principle for screening the effective additives results in excessive experimental time consumption and cost.And the stabilization time of the aerosol is still only 30 min,which could not meet the requirements of the perdurable interference.Herein,to improve the stability of water-based aerosol and optimize the complex formulation efficiently,a theoretical calculation method based on thermodynamic entropy theory is proposed.All the factors that influence the shielding effect,including polyol,stabilizer,propellant,water and cosolvent,are considered within calculation.An ultra-stable water-based aerosol with long duration over 120 min is obtained with the optimal fogging agent composition,providing enough time for fighting the electro-optic weapon.Theoretical design guideline for choosing the additives with high phase transition temperature and low phase transition enthalpy is also proposed,which greatly improves the total entropy change and reduce the absolute entropy change of the aerosol cooling process,and gives rise to an enhanced stability of the water-based aerosol.The theoretical calculation methodology contributes to an abstemious time and space for sieving the water-based aerosol with desirable performance and stability,and provides the powerful guarantee to the homeland security.

Continuous-Time Channel Prediction Based on Tensor Neural Ordinary Differential Equation

Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios.Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction,which can only predict the future channel in a fixed time slot per frame,while the other intra-frame channels are usually recovered by interpolation.However,these approaches suffer from a serious interpolation loss,especially for mobile millimeter-wave communications.To solve this challenging problem,we propose a tensor neural ordinary differential equation(TN-ODE)based continuous-time channel prediction scheme to realize the direct prediction of intra-frame channels.Specifically,inspired by the recently developed continuous mapping model named neural ODE in the field of machine learning,we first utilize the neural ODE model to predict future continuous-time channels.To improve the channel prediction accuracy and reduce computational complexity,we then propose the TN-ODE scheme to learn the structural characteristics of the high-dimensional channel by low-dimensional learnable transform.Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve higher intra-frame channel prediction accuracy than existing schemes.

The Formation of Oscillation Patterns Based on the Planetary Gravitational Field and Their Suitability for Earthquake Prediction

The fluctuating planetary gravitational field influences not only activities on the Sun but also on the Earth. A special correlation function describes the harmonics of these fluctuations. Groups of earthquakes form oscillation patterns that differ significantly from randomly chosen control groups. These patterns are suitable as an element of an AI for the probability of earthquakes.

An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble Prediction

Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.

Uniaxial Compressive Strength Prediction for Rock Material in Deep Mine Using Boosting-Based Machine Learning Methods and Optimization Algorithms

Traditional laboratory tests for measuring rock uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)are tedious and timeconsuming.There is a pressing need for more effective methods to determine rock UCS,especially in deep mining environments under high in-situ stress.Thus,this study aims to develop an advanced model for predicting the UCS of rockmaterial in deepmining environments by combining three boosting-basedmachine learning methods with four optimization algorithms.For this purpose,the Lead-Zinc mine in Southwest China is considered as the case study.Rock density,P-wave velocity,and point load strength index are used as input variables,and UCS is regarded as the output.Subsequently,twelve hybrid predictive models are obtained.Root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),coefficient of determination(R2),and the proportion of the mean absolute percentage error less than 20%(A-20)are selected as the evaluation metrics.Experimental results showed that the hybridmodel consisting of the extreme gradient boostingmethod and the artificial bee colony algorithm(XGBoost-ABC)achieved satisfactory results on the training dataset and exhibited the best generalization performance on the testing dataset.The values of R2,A-20,RMSE,and MAE on the training dataset are 0.98,1.0,3.11 MPa,and 2.23MPa,respectively.The highest values of R2 and A-20(0.93 and 0.96),and the smallest RMSE and MAE values of 4.78 MPa and 3.76MPa,are observed on the testing dataset.The proposed hybrid model can be considered a reliable and effective method for predicting rock UCS in deep mines.

Process metallurgy and data-driven prediction and feedback of blast furnace heat indicators

The prediction and control of furnace heat indicators are of great importance for improving the heat levels and conditions of the complex and difficult-to-operate hour-class delay blast furnace(BF)system.In this work,a prediction and feedback model of furnace heat indicators based on the fusion of data-driven and BF ironmaking processes was proposed.The data on raw and fuel materials,process op-eration,smelting state,and slag and iron discharge during the whole BF process comprised 171 variables with 9223 groups of data and were comprehensively analyzed.A novel method for the delay analysis of furnace heat indicators was established.The extracted delay variables were found to play an important role in modeling.The method that combined the genetic algorithm and stacking efficiently im-proved performance compared with the traditional machine learning algorithm in improving the hit ratio of the furnace heat prediction model.The hit ratio for predicting the temperature of hot metal in the error range of±10℃ was 92.4%,and that for the chemical heat of hot metal in the error range of±0.1wt%was 93.3%.On the basis of the furnace heat prediction model and expert experience,a feedback model of furnace heat operation was established to obtain quantitative operation suggestions for stabilizing BF heat levels.These sugges-tions were highly accepted by BF operators.Finally,the comprehensive and dynamic model proposed in this work was successfully ap-plied in a practical BF system.It improved the BF temperature level remarkably,increasing the furnace temperature stability rate from 54.9%to 84.9%.This improvement achieved considerable economic benefits.

Traffic Flow Prediction with Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Data Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model Using Attention-Mechanism

A significant obstacle in intelligent transportation systems(ITS)is the capacity to predict traffic flow.Recent advancements in deep neural networks have enabled the development of models to represent traffic flow accurately.However,accurately predicting traffic flow at the individual road level is extremely difficult due to the complex interplay of spatial and temporal factors.This paper proposes a technique for predicting short-term traffic flow data using an architecture that utilizes convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory(Conv-BiLSTM)with attention mechanisms.Prior studies neglected to include data pertaining to factors such as holidays,weather conditions,and vehicle types,which are interconnected and significantly impact the accuracy of forecast outcomes.In addition,this research incorporates recurring monthly periodic pattern data that significantly enhances the accuracy of forecast outcomes.The experimental findings demonstrate a performance improvement of 21.68%when incorporating the vehicle type feature.

Predictability of the upper ocean heat content in a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system

Upper ocean heat content(OHC)has been widely recognized as a crucial precursor to high-impact climate variability,especially for that being indispensable to the long-term memory of the ocean.Assessing the predictability of OHC using state-of-the-art climate models is invaluable for improving and advancing climate forecasts.Recently developed retrospective forecast experiments,based on a Community Earth System Model ensemble prediction system,offer a great opportunity to comprehensively explore OHC predictability.Our results indicate that the skill of actual OHC predictions varies across different oceans and diminishes as the lead time of prediction extends.The spatial distribution of the actual prediction skill closely resembles the corresponding persistence skill,indicating that the persistence of OHC serves as the primary predictive signal for its predictability.The decline in actual prediction skill is more pronounced in the Indian and Atlantic oceans than in the Pacific Ocean,particularly within tropical regions.Additionally,notable seasonal variations in the actual prediction skills across different oceans align well with the phase-locking features of OHC variability.The potential predictability of OHC generally surpasses the actual prediction skill at all lead times,highlighting significant room for improvement in current OHC predictions,especially for the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.Achieving such improvements necessitates a collaborative effort to enhance the quality of ocean observations,develop effective data assimilation methods,and reduce model bias.