Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswil...Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswill appear during the next instance of time per hour. Precise STTF iscritical in Intelligent Transportation System. Various extinct systems aim forshort-term traffic forecasts, ensuring a good precision outcome which was asignificant task over the past few years. The main objective of this paper is topropose a new model to predict STTF for every hour of a day. In this paper,we have proposed a novel hybrid algorithm utilizing Principal ComponentAnalysis (PCA), Stacked Auto-Encoder (SAE), Long Short Term Memory(LSTM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) named PALKNN. Firstly, PCAremoves unwanted information from the dataset and selects essential features.Secondly, SAE is used to reduce the dimension of input data using onehotencoding so the model can be trained with better speed. Thirdly, LSTMtakes the input from SAE, where the data is sorted in ascending orderbased on the important features and generates the derived value. Finally,KNN Regressor takes information from LSTM to predict traffic flow. Theforecasting performance of the PALKNN model is investigated with OpenRoad Traffic Statistics dataset, Great Britain, UK. This paper enhanced thetraffic flow prediction for every hour of a day with a minimal error value.An extensive experimental analysis was performed on the benchmark dataset.The evaluated results indicate the significant improvement of the proposedPALKNN model over the recent approaches such as KNN, SARIMA, LogisticRegression, RNN, and LSTM in terms of root mean square error (RMSE)of 2.07%, mean square error (MSE) of 4.1%, and mean absolute error (MAE)of 2.04%.展开更多
为建立准确有效的空中交通短期流量预测模型,提高终端区管理效率,以进场交通流为对象进行研究。首先采用自回归移动平均(autoregressive moving average,ARMA)模型对流量时间序列进行初步线性预测,然后通过长短期记忆网络(long short te...为建立准确有效的空中交通短期流量预测模型,提高终端区管理效率,以进场交通流为对象进行研究。首先采用自回归移动平均(autoregressive moving average,ARMA)模型对流量时间序列进行初步线性预测,然后通过长短期记忆网络(long short term memory,LSTM)模型对线性预测后的残差序列进行非线性修正预测。考虑到冗余特征会降低LSTM模型预测精度的问题,采用自编码器(autoencoder,AE)模型对LSTM模型的天气以及流量特征输入进行自适应压缩优化,最后设置对比实验对ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的准确性、鲁棒性以及时效性进行验证。实验结果表明:预测绝对误差在1.3架以内的占比达到75%;LSTM模型的平均每轮迭代时间降低为1.014 s;与其他常用深度学习预测模型相比,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)以及决定系数(r-squared,R2)评价指标分别改善了45.98%~67.66%、48.56%~67.35%、5.18%~21.07%;恶劣天气影响下,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的鲁棒性更好。由此可见,该方法能够准确有效快速的预测空中交通流量。展开更多
文摘Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswill appear during the next instance of time per hour. Precise STTF iscritical in Intelligent Transportation System. Various extinct systems aim forshort-term traffic forecasts, ensuring a good precision outcome which was asignificant task over the past few years. The main objective of this paper is topropose a new model to predict STTF for every hour of a day. In this paper,we have proposed a novel hybrid algorithm utilizing Principal ComponentAnalysis (PCA), Stacked Auto-Encoder (SAE), Long Short Term Memory(LSTM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) named PALKNN. Firstly, PCAremoves unwanted information from the dataset and selects essential features.Secondly, SAE is used to reduce the dimension of input data using onehotencoding so the model can be trained with better speed. Thirdly, LSTMtakes the input from SAE, where the data is sorted in ascending orderbased on the important features and generates the derived value. Finally,KNN Regressor takes information from LSTM to predict traffic flow. Theforecasting performance of the PALKNN model is investigated with OpenRoad Traffic Statistics dataset, Great Britain, UK. This paper enhanced thetraffic flow prediction for every hour of a day with a minimal error value.An extensive experimental analysis was performed on the benchmark dataset.The evaluated results indicate the significant improvement of the proposedPALKNN model over the recent approaches such as KNN, SARIMA, LogisticRegression, RNN, and LSTM in terms of root mean square error (RMSE)of 2.07%, mean square error (MSE) of 4.1%, and mean absolute error (MAE)of 2.04%.
文摘为建立准确有效的空中交通短期流量预测模型,提高终端区管理效率,以进场交通流为对象进行研究。首先采用自回归移动平均(autoregressive moving average,ARMA)模型对流量时间序列进行初步线性预测,然后通过长短期记忆网络(long short term memory,LSTM)模型对线性预测后的残差序列进行非线性修正预测。考虑到冗余特征会降低LSTM模型预测精度的问题,采用自编码器(autoencoder,AE)模型对LSTM模型的天气以及流量特征输入进行自适应压缩优化,最后设置对比实验对ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的准确性、鲁棒性以及时效性进行验证。实验结果表明:预测绝对误差在1.3架以内的占比达到75%;LSTM模型的平均每轮迭代时间降低为1.014 s;与其他常用深度学习预测模型相比,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)以及决定系数(r-squared,R2)评价指标分别改善了45.98%~67.66%、48.56%~67.35%、5.18%~21.07%;恶劣天气影响下,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的鲁棒性更好。由此可见,该方法能够准确有效快速的预测空中交通流量。
