Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswil...Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswill appear during the next instance of time per hour. Precise STTF iscritical in Intelligent Transportation System. Various extinct systems aim forshort-term traffic forecasts, ensuring a good precision outcome which was asignificant task over the past few years. The main objective of this paper is topropose a new model to predict STTF for every hour of a day. In this paper,we have proposed a novel hybrid algorithm utilizing Principal ComponentAnalysis (PCA), Stacked Auto-Encoder (SAE), Long Short Term Memory(LSTM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) named PALKNN. Firstly, PCAremoves unwanted information from the dataset and selects essential features.Secondly, SAE is used to reduce the dimension of input data using onehotencoding so the model can be trained with better speed. Thirdly, LSTMtakes the input from SAE, where the data is sorted in ascending orderbased on the important features and generates the derived value. Finally,KNN Regressor takes information from LSTM to predict traffic flow. Theforecasting performance of the PALKNN model is investigated with OpenRoad Traffic Statistics dataset, Great Britain, UK. This paper enhanced thetraffic flow prediction for every hour of a day with a minimal error value.An extensive experimental analysis was performed on the benchmark dataset.The evaluated results indicate the significant improvement of the proposedPALKNN model over the recent approaches such as KNN, SARIMA, LogisticRegression, RNN, and LSTM in terms of root mean square error (RMSE)of 2.07%, mean square error (MSE) of 4.1%, and mean absolute error (MAE)of 2.04%.展开更多
Aiming at the problem that some existing traffic flow prediction models are only for a single road segment and the model input data are not pre-processed,a heuristic threshold algorithm is used to de-noise the origina...Aiming at the problem that some existing traffic flow prediction models are only for a single road segment and the model input data are not pre-processed,a heuristic threshold algorithm is used to de-noise the original traffic flow data after wavelet decomposition.The correlation coefficients of road traffic flow data are calculated and the data compression matrix of road traffic flow is constructed.Data de-noising minimizes the interference of data to the model,while the correlation analysis of road network data realizes the prediction at the road network level.Utilizing the advantages of long short term memory(LSTM)network in time series data processing,the compression matrix is input into the constructed LSTM model for short-term traffic flow prediction.The LSTM-1 and LSTM-2 models were respectively trained by de-noising processed data and original data.Through simulation experiments,different prediction times were set,and the prediction results of the prediction model proposed in this paper were compared with those of other methods.It is found that the accuracy of the LSTM-2 model proposed in this paper increases by 10.278%on average compared with other prediction methods,and the prediction accuracy reaches 95.58%,which proves that the short-term traffic flow prediction method proposed in this paper is efficient.展开更多
交通流量因受周期性特征、突发状况等多重因素影响,现有模型的预测精度无法满足实际要求.对此,本文提出了基于误差补偿的多模态协同交通流预测模型(Multimodal Collaborative traffic flow prediction model based on Error Compensatio...交通流量因受周期性特征、突发状况等多重因素影响,现有模型的预测精度无法满足实际要求.对此,本文提出了基于误差补偿的多模态协同交通流预测模型(Multimodal Collaborative traffic flow prediction model based on Error Compensation,MCEC).针对传统预测模型不能兼顾时间序列和协变量的问题,提出基于小波分析的特征拓展方法,该方法引入聚类算法得到节假日标签特征,将拥堵指数、交通事故图、天气信息作为拓展特征,对特征进行多尺度分解.在训练阶段,为达到充分学习各部分数据、最优匹配模型的效果,采用差分整合移动平均自回归模型(Autoreg Ressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)、长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory network,LSTM)、限制动态时间规整技术(Dynamic Time Warping,DTW)以及自注意力机制(Self-Attention),设计了多模态协同模型训练.在误差补偿阶段,将得到的相应过程值输入基于支持向量机回归(Support Vector Regression,SVR)的误差补偿模块,对各分量的误差进行学习、补偿,并重构得到预测结果.使用公开的高速公路数据集对MCEC进行验证,在多个时间间隔下对比实验结果表明,MCEC在交通流量预测中的平均绝对百分比误差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error,MAPE)达到17.02%,比LSTM-SVR、ConvLSTM(Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory network)、ST-GCN(Spatial Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks)、MFFB(Multi-stream Feature Fusion Block)、Transformer等预测模型具有更高的预测精度,MCEC模型具有较好的有效性与合理性.展开更多
文摘Traffic flow prediction in urban areas is essential in the IntelligentTransportation System (ITS). Short Term Traffic Flow (STTF) predictionimpacts traffic flow series, where an estimation of the number of vehicleswill appear during the next instance of time per hour. Precise STTF iscritical in Intelligent Transportation System. Various extinct systems aim forshort-term traffic forecasts, ensuring a good precision outcome which was asignificant task over the past few years. The main objective of this paper is topropose a new model to predict STTF for every hour of a day. In this paper,we have proposed a novel hybrid algorithm utilizing Principal ComponentAnalysis (PCA), Stacked Auto-Encoder (SAE), Long Short Term Memory(LSTM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) named PALKNN. Firstly, PCAremoves unwanted information from the dataset and selects essential features.Secondly, SAE is used to reduce the dimension of input data using onehotencoding so the model can be trained with better speed. Thirdly, LSTMtakes the input from SAE, where the data is sorted in ascending orderbased on the important features and generates the derived value. Finally,KNN Regressor takes information from LSTM to predict traffic flow. Theforecasting performance of the PALKNN model is investigated with OpenRoad Traffic Statistics dataset, Great Britain, UK. This paper enhanced thetraffic flow prediction for every hour of a day with a minimal error value.An extensive experimental analysis was performed on the benchmark dataset.The evaluated results indicate the significant improvement of the proposedPALKNN model over the recent approaches such as KNN, SARIMA, LogisticRegression, RNN, and LSTM in terms of root mean square error (RMSE)of 2.07%, mean square error (MSE) of 4.1%, and mean absolute error (MAE)of 2.04%.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71961016)Planning Fund for the Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(Nos.15XJAZH002,18YJAZH148)Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(No.18JR3RA125)。
文摘Aiming at the problem that some existing traffic flow prediction models are only for a single road segment and the model input data are not pre-processed,a heuristic threshold algorithm is used to de-noise the original traffic flow data after wavelet decomposition.The correlation coefficients of road traffic flow data are calculated and the data compression matrix of road traffic flow is constructed.Data de-noising minimizes the interference of data to the model,while the correlation analysis of road network data realizes the prediction at the road network level.Utilizing the advantages of long short term memory(LSTM)network in time series data processing,the compression matrix is input into the constructed LSTM model for short-term traffic flow prediction.The LSTM-1 and LSTM-2 models were respectively trained by de-noising processed data and original data.Through simulation experiments,different prediction times were set,and the prediction results of the prediction model proposed in this paper were compared with those of other methods.It is found that the accuracy of the LSTM-2 model proposed in this paper increases by 10.278%on average compared with other prediction methods,and the prediction accuracy reaches 95.58%,which proves that the short-term traffic flow prediction method proposed in this paper is efficient.
