A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those 0f EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with de...A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those 0f EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts’Analpees appltwg themeth0ds to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cycl0ne track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed 0f a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill inb0th track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector err0rare 159. 27, 314. 84,524. 12, 813. 03, and 987. 12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.展开更多
文摘A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those 0f EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts’Analpees appltwg themeth0ds to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cycl0ne track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed 0f a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill inb0th track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector err0rare 159. 27, 314. 84,524. 12, 813. 03, and 987. 12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.
