This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-tu...This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.展开更多
This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of...This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.展开更多
In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper intr...In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper introduces the models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) which are applied to the price forecasts for up to 3 steps 8 weeks ahead in the UK electricity market. The half hourly data of historical prices are obtained from UK Reference Price Data from March 22nd to July 14th 2010 and the predictions are derived from a sliding training window with a length of 8 weeks. The ARIMA with various AR and MA orders and the ANN with different numbers of delays and neurons have been established and compared in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of price forecasts. The experimental results illustrate that the ARIMA (4,1,2) model gives greater improvement over persistence than the ANN (20 neurons, 4 delays) model.展开更多
随着电力现货市场的开展,短期电价预测对于各市场主体的决策有着重要意义,而高比例清洁能源与储能的不断接入给短期电价预测带来很大挑战。提出一种基于最大信息系数法(maximum information coefficient,MIC)、集成经验模态分解(ensembl...随着电力现货市场的开展,短期电价预测对于各市场主体的决策有着重要意义,而高比例清洁能源与储能的不断接入给短期电价预测带来很大挑战。提出一种基于最大信息系数法(maximum information coefficient,MIC)、集成经验模态分解(ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)和改进Informer的短期电价多步预测模型。首先,采用MIC分析出与电价相关性较高的几类因素作为模型原始输入序列;然后,将上述原始序列进行EEMD分解后得到多条本征模函数(intrinsic mode function,IMF)和一个残余项后输入改进Informer分别得到翌日24点多步预测结果,再对预测结果进行滤波;最后,将滤波后序列的预测结果叠加得到最终的预测值。以西班牙电力市场数据进行验证,实验结果证明该模型可以有效提高电力市场短期电价多步预测精度。展开更多
Accurately forecasting short-term electricity prices is of great significance to electricity market participants.Compared with the time series forecasting methods,machine learning forecasting methods can consider more...Accurately forecasting short-term electricity prices is of great significance to electricity market participants.Compared with the time series forecasting methods,machine learning forecasting methods can consider more external factors.The forecasting accuracy of machine learning models is greatly affected by the parameters,meanwhile,the manual selection of parameters usually cannot guarantee the accuracy and stability of the forecasting.Therefore,this paper proposes a random forest(RF)electricity price forecasting model based on the grey wolf optimizer(GWO)to improve the accuracy of forecasting.Among them,RF has a good ability to deal with the problem of non-linear and unstable electricity prices.The optimization of model parameters by GWO can overcome the instability of the forecasting accuracy of manually tune parameters.On this basis,the short-term electricity prices of the PJM power market in four seasons are separately predicted.Experimental results show that the RF algorithm can better predict the short-term electricity price,and the optimization of the RF forecasting model by GWO can effectively improve the accuracy of the RF forecasting model.展开更多
Under dynamic pricing, stable and accurate electricity price forecasting on the demand side is essential forefficient energy management. We have developed a new electricity price forecasting model that providesconsist...Under dynamic pricing, stable and accurate electricity price forecasting on the demand side is essential forefficient energy management. We have developed a new electricity price forecasting model that providesconsistently accurate forecasts. The base prediction model decomposes the time series using wavelet transformand then predicts it by Long Short-Term Memory. Previous studies using this model have always decomposedtime series in the same way without changing the mother wavelet. However, this makes it difficult to respond tochanges in time series that vary daily or seasonally. Therefore, we periodically switch the mother wavelet, i.e.,flexibly change the time series decomposition method, to achieve stable and highly accurate electricity priceforecasting. In an experiment, the model improved prediction accuracy by up to 42.8% compared to predictionwith a fixed mother wavelet. Experimental results show that the proposed flexible forecasting method canconsistently provide highly accurate forecasts.展开更多
The joint optimization problem of energy procurement and retail pricing for an electricity retailer is converted into separately determining the optimal procurement strategy and optimal pricing strategy,under the“pri...The joint optimization problem of energy procurement and retail pricing for an electricity retailer is converted into separately determining the optimal procurement strategy and optimal pricing strategy,under the“price-taker”assumption.The aggregate energy consumption of end use customers(EUCs)is predicted to solve for the optimal procurement strategy vis a long short-term memory(LSTM)-based supervised learning method.The optimal retail pricing problem is formulated as a Markov decision process(MDP),which can be solved by using deep reinforcement learning(DRL)algorithms.However,the performance of existing DRL approaches may deteriorate due to their insufficient ability to extract discriminative features from the time-series vectors in the environmental states.We propose a novel deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG)network structure with a shared LSTM-based representation network that fully exploits the Actor’s and Critic’s losses.The designed shared representation network and the joint loss function can enhance the environment perception capability of the proposed approach and further improve the optimization performance,resulting in a more profitable pricing strategy.Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
文摘This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.
基金financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04)the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture,China(2013-Z1)
文摘This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.
文摘In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper introduces the models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) which are applied to the price forecasts for up to 3 steps 8 weeks ahead in the UK electricity market. The half hourly data of historical prices are obtained from UK Reference Price Data from March 22nd to July 14th 2010 and the predictions are derived from a sliding training window with a length of 8 weeks. The ARIMA with various AR and MA orders and the ANN with different numbers of delays and neurons have been established and compared in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of price forecasts. The experimental results illustrate that the ARIMA (4,1,2) model gives greater improvement over persistence than the ANN (20 neurons, 4 delays) model.
文摘Accurately forecasting short-term electricity prices is of great significance to electricity market participants.Compared with the time series forecasting methods,machine learning forecasting methods can consider more external factors.The forecasting accuracy of machine learning models is greatly affected by the parameters,meanwhile,the manual selection of parameters usually cannot guarantee the accuracy and stability of the forecasting.Therefore,this paper proposes a random forest(RF)electricity price forecasting model based on the grey wolf optimizer(GWO)to improve the accuracy of forecasting.Among them,RF has a good ability to deal with the problem of non-linear and unstable electricity prices.The optimization of model parameters by GWO can overcome the instability of the forecasting accuracy of manually tune parameters.On this basis,the short-term electricity prices of the PJM power market in four seasons are separately predicted.Experimental results show that the RF algorithm can better predict the short-term electricity price,and the optimization of the RF forecasting model by GWO can effectively improve the accuracy of the RF forecasting model.
基金supported by JSPS,Japan KAKENHI Grant Number 22H03697,and DAIKIN Industries,Ltd.
文摘Under dynamic pricing, stable and accurate electricity price forecasting on the demand side is essential forefficient energy management. We have developed a new electricity price forecasting model that providesconsistently accurate forecasts. The base prediction model decomposes the time series using wavelet transformand then predicts it by Long Short-Term Memory. Previous studies using this model have always decomposedtime series in the same way without changing the mother wavelet. However, this makes it difficult to respond tochanges in time series that vary daily or seasonally. Therefore, we periodically switch the mother wavelet, i.e.,flexibly change the time series decomposition method, to achieve stable and highly accurate electricity priceforecasting. In an experiment, the model improved prediction accuracy by up to 42.8% compared to predictionwith a fixed mother wavelet. Experimental results show that the proposed flexible forecasting method canconsistently provide highly accurate forecasts.
基金This work was supported in part by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20210002)National Key R&D Program of China(2018AAA0101504)。
文摘The joint optimization problem of energy procurement and retail pricing for an electricity retailer is converted into separately determining the optimal procurement strategy and optimal pricing strategy,under the“price-taker”assumption.The aggregate energy consumption of end use customers(EUCs)is predicted to solve for the optimal procurement strategy vis a long short-term memory(LSTM)-based supervised learning method.The optimal retail pricing problem is formulated as a Markov decision process(MDP),which can be solved by using deep reinforcement learning(DRL)algorithms.However,the performance of existing DRL approaches may deteriorate due to their insufficient ability to extract discriminative features from the time-series vectors in the environmental states.We propose a novel deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG)network structure with a shared LSTM-based representation network that fully exploits the Actor’s and Critic’s losses.The designed shared representation network and the joint loss function can enhance the environment perception capability of the proposed approach and further improve the optimization performance,resulting in a more profitable pricing strategy.Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
