Using 58 years (1961 to 2018) of daily rainfall data, this study focuses on determining trends in the annual and seasonal precipitation extremes of Jiangxi, China, by choosing four extreme precipitation indices, inclu...Using 58 years (1961 to 2018) of daily rainfall data, this study focuses on determining trends in the annual and seasonal precipitation extremes of Jiangxi, China, by choosing four extreme precipitation indices, including strong precipitation amount (SPA), mean precipitation intensity (MPI), strong precipitation days (SPD), and strong precipitation frequency (SPF). The monotonic trends are tested by using the Mann-Kendall test for the trends and Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trends. The effective sample size (ESS) method was used to eliminate the influence of serial correlation in the Mann-Kendall test. The results indicated that station Zixi had the strongest extreme precipitation, while Wanzai had the weakest. The trends for each index showed an obvious regional feature over Jiangxi. Increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation indices were found at almost all stations, and the annual variability of the extreme precipitation indices was pronounced, especially for the mean precipitation intensity and the strong precipitation frequency;the majority of these positive trends were shown by the statistical tests. In spring, four indices exhibited significant increasing trends in Northeast and Southwest Jiangxi;however, in summer, only MPI had a remarkable positive trend across almost all of Jiangxi. For the other indices, few stations had remarkable trends. In autumn, MPI and SPF showed remarkable increasing trends in most regions of Jiangxi, while SPA and SPD showed increasing trends at only 6 stations and 3 stations, respectively, which were scattered in the northern and middle parts. In winter, the stations with remarkable upward trends in SPA and SPD were mainly located in the middle of the region, whereas the significant patterns of MPI and SPF were located in the south and middle of the region.展开更多
The paper deals with the issues of differentiation of atmospheric precipitation into gradations according to their characteristics and established meteorological practices.The division of atmospheric precipitation int...The paper deals with the issues of differentiation of atmospheric precipitation into gradations according to their characteristics and established meteorological practices.The division of atmospheric precipitation into gradations allows one to have an idea of the possible consequences of their fallout on life in the area.The dependence of the average intensity of precipitation on their duration for the entire series of observations is not described by a power-law dependence with a sufficient degree of reliability,and when differentiating into gradations according to the amount of precipitation(<2.5 mm,2.5-10 mm,≥10 mm),the dependences are obtained with a high degree of correlation.The scatter of points can be explained by the presence of intermediate categories of precipitation,which does not take into account the accepted division of the data.Thus,for large values of the amount of precipitation,the existence of a separate curve is possible,since the existing classifications of precipitation imply the division of heavy showers into separate gradations.Differentiation of rains by their duration shows a stronger stratification of the field of points for shorter rains(up to 60 minutes).This stratification of the field of points is successfully differentiated into shorter segments of 20,30 minutes.Associated with the greater heterogeneity of shorter precipitation,it can be both rains of low intensity and heavy downpours of short duration.The probability of the position of the maximum intensity of precipitation during rain has more significant differences for precipitation less than 2.5 mm(the curves are more curved).For rains with a precipitation amount of 2.5 mm or more,the probability curves approach straight lines,which is associated with greater heterogeneity of precipitation less than 2.5 mm.展开更多
In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high...In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high resolution: the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System (SWAN) quantitative precipitation forecast and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional numerical model precipitation forecast in short-term nowcasting aging. Based on the error analysis, the grid fusion technology is used to establish the measured rainfall, HRRR regional model precipitation forecast, and optical flow radar quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) three-source fusion correction scheme, comprehensively integrate the revised forecasting effect, adjust the fusion correction parameters, establish an optimal correction plan, generate a frozen rolling update revised product based on measured dense data and short-term forecast, and put it into business operation, and perform real-time effect rolling test evaluation on the forecast product.展开更多
Based on the C-band Doppler radar data and the hourly precipitation data of heavy precipitation in Ulanqab from 2018 to 2019,the Z-I relationship of local convective precipitation and the correlation between verticall...Based on the C-band Doppler radar data and the hourly precipitation data of heavy precipitation in Ulanqab from 2018 to 2019,the Z-I relationship of local convective precipitation and the correlation between vertically integrated liquid water(VIL)and precipitation were studied.The heavy precipitation was divided into cumulus precipitation and cumulus mixed cloud precipitation,and different types of Z-I relationship was established to compare it with the traditional and unclassified overall optimal Z-I relationship.It shows that the estimation of different types of precipitation by different Z-I relationships was obviously better than the other two.Cumulus precipitation had a certain lag correlation with VIL,and the last 4 scanning VIL values within an hour had no indicative significance for precipitation;mixed precipitation was basically synchronized with VIL;the correlation decreased with the increase of the distance from radar,the corresponding degree of VIL and precipitation in stations within 30 km was significantly higher than that of other regional stations.A continuous non-zero VIL sequence close to a certain place can be used as a forecast indicator.Once a zero value appeared in the VIL time series,even it occurred only once,the two sequences before and after the zero value should be distinguished.展开更多
An evaluation of Radar Precipitation Feature (RPF) characteristics and distribution of convective intensity is performed across 12 regions in West Africa. Results presented in this study have shown that these characte...An evaluation of Radar Precipitation Feature (RPF) characteristics and distribution of convective intensity is performed across 12 regions in West Africa. Results presented in this study have shown that these characteristics over West Africa revealed interesting results which were not observed on a larger spatial scale. The ice scattering characteristics and heights attained by the 15, 20, 30, and 40 dBZ echoes show patterns that agree with the season and movement of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD). Some locations in the Western-coast rainforest, Nigeria/Cameroon rainforest and South Sudan savannah had strong potential for convective intensity during MAM, JJA, and SON as shown by their 37-GHz and 85-GHz PCT which fell below 250 K and 225 K respectively while the maximum height attained by their 20 dBZ, 30 dBZ and 40 dBZ are well above the freezing level in those locations. One result revealed a location on the eastern part of south-central Sahel (SC Sahel) where the maximum height attained by the 30 dBZ reflectivity is above 12 km and the maximum height attained by the 40 dBZ reflectivity is above 10 km during SON. The 37-GHz and 85-GHz PCT for this particular location are below 215 K and 150 K respectively indicating a very strong potential for intense convection and hence destructive storms. The distribution of convective intensity, considering only the 85-GHz PCT ice scattering signature, revealed that the percentage of convective intensity increases, especially in the rainforest and savannah, as the ITD shifts northwards during MAM, JJA and during its retreat in SON.展开更多
Combined with TRMM products and Tropical Cyclone(TC) best track data in Northwest Pacific from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009,a total of 118 TCs,including 336 instantaneous TC precipitation observations are establ...Combined with TRMM products and Tropical Cyclone(TC) best track data in Northwest Pacific from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009,a total of 118 TCs,including 336 instantaneous TC precipitation observations are established as the TRMM TC database,and the database is stratified into four intensity classes according to the standard of TC intensity adopted by China Meteorological Administration(CMA):Severe Tropical Storm(STS),Typhoon(TY),Severe Typhoon(STY) and Super Typhoon(SuperT Y).For each TC snapshot,the mean rainfall distribution is computed using 10-km annuli from the TC center to a 300-km radius,then the axisymmetric component of TC rainfall is represented by the radial distribution of the azimuthal mean rain rate;the mean rain rates,rain types occurrence and contribution proportion are computed for each TC intensity class;and the mean quadrantal distribution of rain rates along TCs motion is analyzed.The result shows that:(1) TCs mean rain rates increase with their intensity classes,and their radial distributions show single-peak characteristic gradually,and furthermore,the characteristics of rain rates occurrence and contribution proportion change from dual-peak to single-peak distribution,with the peak rain rate at about 5.0mm/h;(2) Stratiform rain dominate the rain type in the analysis zone,while convective rain mainly occurred in the eye-wall region;(3) The values of mean rain rate in each quadrant along TCs motion are close to each other,relatively,the value in the right-rear quadrant is the smallest one.展开更多
Daily precipitation rates observed at 576 stations in China from 1961 to 2000 were classified into six grades of intensity, including trace (no amount), slight (≤ 1 mm d^-1), small, large, heavy, and very heavy. ...Daily precipitation rates observed at 576 stations in China from 1961 to 2000 were classified into six grades of intensity, including trace (no amount), slight (≤ 1 mm d^-1), small, large, heavy, and very heavy. The last four grades together constitute the so called effective precipitation (〉 1 mm d^-1). The spatial distribution and temporal trend of the graded precipitation days are examined. A decreasing trend in trace precipitation days is observed for the whole of China, except at several sites in the south of the middle section of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in slight precipitation days only appears in eastern China. The decreasing trend and interannual variability of trace precipitation days is consistent with the warming trend and corresponding temperature variability in China for the same period, indicating a possible role played by increased surface air temperature in cloud formation processes. For the effective precipitation days, a decreasing trend is observed along the Yellow River valley and for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, while an increasing trend is found for Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Northeast China and Southeast China. The decreasing trend of effective precipitation days for the middle- lower Yellow River valley and the increasing trend for the lower Yangtze River valley are most likely linked to anomalous monsoon circulation in East China. The most important contributor to the trend in effective precipitation depends upon the region concerned.展开更多
Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coeffici...Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows:(1) During the last four decades of the 20^(th) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^(st) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.(2) The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(3) On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(4) The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.展开更多
Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can repre...Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can represent all facets of meteorological drought, we took a multi-index approach for drought monitoring in this study. We assessed the ability of eight precipitation-based drought indices(SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index), PNI(Percent of Normal Index), DI(Deciles index), EDI(Effective drought index), CZI(China-Z index), MCZI(Modified CZI), RAI(Rainfall Anomaly Index), and ZSI(Z-score Index)) calculated from the station-observed precipitation data and the Ag MERRA gridded precipitation data to assess historical drought events during the period 1987–2010 for the Kashafrood Basin of Iran. We also presented the Degree of Dryness Index(DDI) for comparing the intensities of different drought categories in each year of the study period(1987–2010). In general, the correlations among drought indices calculated from the Ag MERRA precipitation data were higher than those derived from the station-observed precipitation data. All indices indicated the most severe droughts for the study period occurred in 2001 and 2008. Regardless of data input source, SPI, PNI, and DI were highly inter-correlated(R^2=0.99). Furthermore, the higher correlations(R^2=0.99) were also found between CZI and MCZI, and between ZSI and RAI. All indices were able to track drought intensity, but EDI and RAI showed higher DDI values compared with the other indices. Based on the strong correlation among drought indices derived from the Ag MERRA precipitation data and from the station-observed precipitation data, we suggest that the Ag MERRA precipitation data can be accepted to fill the gaps existed in the station-observed precipitation data in future studies in Iran. In addition, if tested by station-observed precipitation data, the Ag MERRA precipitation data may be used for the data-lacking areas.展开更多
Extreme precipitation events bring considerable risks to the natural ecosystem and human life.Investigating the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and predicting it quantitatively are critical f...Extreme precipitation events bring considerable risks to the natural ecosystem and human life.Investigating the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and predicting it quantitatively are critical for the flood prevention and water resources planning and management.In this study,daily precipitation data(1957–2019)were collected from 24 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin(WRB),Northwest China and its surrounding areas.We first analyzed the spatial-temporal change of precipitation extremes in the WRB based on space-time cube(STC),and then predicted precipitation extremes using long short-term memory(LSTM)network,auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)-LSTM-ARIMA models.The precipitation extremes increased as the spatial variation from northwest to southeast of the WRB.There were two clusters for each extreme precipitation index,which were distributed in the northwestern and southeastern or northern and southern of the WRB.The precipitation extremes in the WRB present a strong clustering pattern.Spatially,the pattern of only high-high cluster and only low-low cluster were primarily located in lower reaches and upper reaches of the WRB,respectively.Hot spots(25.00%–50.00%)were more than cold spots(4.17%–25.00%)in the WRB.Cold spots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern part,while hot spots were mostly located in the eastern and southern parts.For different extreme precipitation indices,the performances of the different models were different.The accuracy ranking was EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA>LSTM>ARIMA in predicting simple daily intensity index(SDII)and consecutive wet days(CWD),while the accuracy ranking was LSTM>EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA>ARIMA in predicting very wet days(R95 P).The hybrid EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA model proposed was generally superior to single models in the prediction of precipitation extremes.展开更多
The impact of the subtropical high (STH) on precipitation was investigated on a daily timescale using matched NCEP and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) datasets.Comparison of the conditional probabi...The impact of the subtropical high (STH) on precipitation was investigated on a daily timescale using matched NCEP and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) datasets.Comparison of the conditional probability (intensity) of precipitation under STH condi-tions with that under non-STH conditions suggests that the presence of the STH conditions has a limited impact on local precipitation.In the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH),precipitation was only 30% lower under STH conditions than under non-STH conditions.The STH conditions had somewhat more impact on precipitation intensity,but it was still 50% less than the intensity under non-STH conditions (mean of roughly 5 mm d 1).Pre-cipitation under STH conditions was found to be highly correlated with vertical motion.Active updrafts occurring even under STH conditions are essential for frequent oc-currences and moderate intensities of precipitation.展开更多
Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought a...Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.展开更多
Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008...Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south(Kaisaniemi),centre(Kajaani) and north(Sodankyl€a). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation(0 mm < daily precipitation long-term 50 th percentile of daily precipitation more than 0 mm) significantly( p < 0.05) decreased over time,with the highest rate in northern Finland. These decreasing trends might be the result of significant increases in frequency of days with very light precipitation at all the stations, with the highest and lowest rates in northern and southern Finland, respectively. Ratio of annual total precipitation to number of precipitation days also declined in Finland over 1908e2008, with a decreasing north to south gradient. However, annual duration indices of daily precipitation revealed no statistically significant trends at any station. Daily precipitation characteristics showed significant relationships with various well-known atmospheric circulation patterns(ACPs). In particular, the East Atlantic/West Russia(EA/WR)pattern in summer was the most influential ACP negatively associated with different daily precipitation intensity, frequency and duration indices at all three stations studied.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze summer precipitation efficiency in Shenyang.[Method] By using the method which estimated the cloud water resource,based on the vertical accumulated liquid water content which ...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze summer precipitation efficiency in Shenyang.[Method] By using the method which estimated the cloud water resource,based on the vertical accumulated liquid water content which was observed by 'QFW-1 dual-channel microwave radiometer' and the rain intensity data which had 1min interval and were inverted by 'particle laser-based optical measurement' (Parsivel),the precipitation efficiency in Shenyang area during July-August,2007 was analyzed.[Result] When the rain intensity I<7.5 mm/h,the precipitation efficiency E was stable and was during 3.2%-2.7%.The average value was 3.0%.When the rain intensity I ≥7.5 mm/h,the precipitation efficiency E presented the linear increasing as the rain intensity I increased.The bigger the rain intensity was,the more the remaining liquid water content in the air was,and the bigger the artificial precipitation potential was.[Conclusion] The research provided the guidance role for analyzing the cloud water resource in the air and the artificial precipitation potential.展开更多
With the help of the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the short-term mutual coherence function, the analytical formula of short-term average intensity for multi-Gaussian beam (MGB) in the turbulent a^mosphere ...With the help of the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the short-term mutual coherence function, the analytical formula of short-term average intensity for multi-Gaussian beam (MGB) in the turbulent a^mosphere has been derived. The intensity in the absence of turbulence and the long-term average intensity in turbulence can both also be expressed in this formula. As special cases, comparisons among short-term average intensity, long-term average intensity, and the intensity in the absence of turbulence for flat topped beam and annular beam are carried out. The effects of the order of MGB, propagation distance and aperture radius on beam spreading are analysed and discussed in detail.展开更多
Characteristics of diurnal cycle precipitation over China are investigated using twice-daily observations by the China Meteorological Administration during 1960–2000. Characteristics investigated include nighttime/da...Characteristics of diurnal cycle precipitation over China are investigated using twice-daily observations by the China Meteorological Administration during 1960–2000. Characteristics investigated include nighttime/daytime precipitation amount(PA), intensity, and frequency. Geographically, the region is separated into western and eastern China by the 110°E longitude. Our analysis shows that there generally is more night-time than daytime precipitation in western China, particularly in the Sichuan Basin. Over eastern China, the opposite holds true, particularly along the southeast coast. Regional average monthly daytime and night-time precipitation peaks in the same month for both western and eastern China. Over western China, monthly night-time precipitation is always greater than that during daytime, but the night-time precipitation frequency(PF) is only greater in non-summer(June–August) months. Over eastern China, daytime precipitation is greater than that in the night-time during the warm season(May–August) in both amount and frequency. The night-day difference(night-time minus daytime) in PA over western China is mainly influenced by precipitation intensity, while over eastern China the night-day difference in rainfall amount is mostly driven by PF.展开更多
Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are a...Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.展开更多
This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the ...This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.展开更多
文摘Using 58 years (1961 to 2018) of daily rainfall data, this study focuses on determining trends in the annual and seasonal precipitation extremes of Jiangxi, China, by choosing four extreme precipitation indices, including strong precipitation amount (SPA), mean precipitation intensity (MPI), strong precipitation days (SPD), and strong precipitation frequency (SPF). The monotonic trends are tested by using the Mann-Kendall test for the trends and Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trends. The effective sample size (ESS) method was used to eliminate the influence of serial correlation in the Mann-Kendall test. The results indicated that station Zixi had the strongest extreme precipitation, while Wanzai had the weakest. The trends for each index showed an obvious regional feature over Jiangxi. Increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation indices were found at almost all stations, and the annual variability of the extreme precipitation indices was pronounced, especially for the mean precipitation intensity and the strong precipitation frequency;the majority of these positive trends were shown by the statistical tests. In spring, four indices exhibited significant increasing trends in Northeast and Southwest Jiangxi;however, in summer, only MPI had a remarkable positive trend across almost all of Jiangxi. For the other indices, few stations had remarkable trends. In autumn, MPI and SPF showed remarkable increasing trends in most regions of Jiangxi, while SPA and SPD showed increasing trends at only 6 stations and 3 stations, respectively, which were scattered in the northern and middle parts. In winter, the stations with remarkable upward trends in SPA and SPD were mainly located in the middle of the region, whereas the significant patterns of MPI and SPF were located in the south and middle of the region.
文摘The paper deals with the issues of differentiation of atmospheric precipitation into gradations according to their characteristics and established meteorological practices.The division of atmospheric precipitation into gradations allows one to have an idea of the possible consequences of their fallout on life in the area.The dependence of the average intensity of precipitation on their duration for the entire series of observations is not described by a power-law dependence with a sufficient degree of reliability,and when differentiating into gradations according to the amount of precipitation(<2.5 mm,2.5-10 mm,≥10 mm),the dependences are obtained with a high degree of correlation.The scatter of points can be explained by the presence of intermediate categories of precipitation,which does not take into account the accepted division of the data.Thus,for large values of the amount of precipitation,the existence of a separate curve is possible,since the existing classifications of precipitation imply the division of heavy showers into separate gradations.Differentiation of rains by their duration shows a stronger stratification of the field of points for shorter rains(up to 60 minutes).This stratification of the field of points is successfully differentiated into shorter segments of 20,30 minutes.Associated with the greater heterogeneity of shorter precipitation,it can be both rains of low intensity and heavy downpours of short duration.The probability of the position of the maximum intensity of precipitation during rain has more significant differences for precipitation less than 2.5 mm(the curves are more curved).For rains with a precipitation amount of 2.5 mm or more,the probability curves approach straight lines,which is associated with greater heterogeneity of precipitation less than 2.5 mm.
文摘In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high resolution: the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System (SWAN) quantitative precipitation forecast and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional numerical model precipitation forecast in short-term nowcasting aging. Based on the error analysis, the grid fusion technology is used to establish the measured rainfall, HRRR regional model precipitation forecast, and optical flow radar quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) three-source fusion correction scheme, comprehensively integrate the revised forecasting effect, adjust the fusion correction parameters, establish an optimal correction plan, generate a frozen rolling update revised product based on measured dense data and short-term forecast, and put it into business operation, and perform real-time effect rolling test evaluation on the forecast product.
基金Supported by Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration in 2020(CMAYBY2020-022)。
文摘Based on the C-band Doppler radar data and the hourly precipitation data of heavy precipitation in Ulanqab from 2018 to 2019,the Z-I relationship of local convective precipitation and the correlation between vertically integrated liquid water(VIL)and precipitation were studied.The heavy precipitation was divided into cumulus precipitation and cumulus mixed cloud precipitation,and different types of Z-I relationship was established to compare it with the traditional and unclassified overall optimal Z-I relationship.It shows that the estimation of different types of precipitation by different Z-I relationships was obviously better than the other two.Cumulus precipitation had a certain lag correlation with VIL,and the last 4 scanning VIL values within an hour had no indicative significance for precipitation;mixed precipitation was basically synchronized with VIL;the correlation decreased with the increase of the distance from radar,the corresponding degree of VIL and precipitation in stations within 30 km was significantly higher than that of other regional stations.A continuous non-zero VIL sequence close to a certain place can be used as a forecast indicator.Once a zero value appeared in the VIL time series,even it occurred only once,the two sequences before and after the zero value should be distinguished.
文摘An evaluation of Radar Precipitation Feature (RPF) characteristics and distribution of convective intensity is performed across 12 regions in West Africa. Results presented in this study have shown that these characteristics over West Africa revealed interesting results which were not observed on a larger spatial scale. The ice scattering characteristics and heights attained by the 15, 20, 30, and 40 dBZ echoes show patterns that agree with the season and movement of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD). Some locations in the Western-coast rainforest, Nigeria/Cameroon rainforest and South Sudan savannah had strong potential for convective intensity during MAM, JJA, and SON as shown by their 37-GHz and 85-GHz PCT which fell below 250 K and 225 K respectively while the maximum height attained by their 20 dBZ, 30 dBZ and 40 dBZ are well above the freezing level in those locations. One result revealed a location on the eastern part of south-central Sahel (SC Sahel) where the maximum height attained by the 30 dBZ reflectivity is above 12 km and the maximum height attained by the 40 dBZ reflectivity is above 10 km during SON. The 37-GHz and 85-GHz PCT for this particular location are below 215 K and 150 K respectively indicating a very strong potential for intense convection and hence destructive storms. The distribution of convective intensity, considering only the 85-GHz PCT ice scattering signature, revealed that the percentage of convective intensity increases, especially in the rainforest and savannah, as the ITD shifts northwards during MAM, JJA and during its retreat in SON.
基金National Nature Science Foundation of China(41205017)Pre-Research Foundation of General Equipment Department(9140A22060215JB09349)
文摘Combined with TRMM products and Tropical Cyclone(TC) best track data in Northwest Pacific from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009,a total of 118 TCs,including 336 instantaneous TC precipitation observations are established as the TRMM TC database,and the database is stratified into four intensity classes according to the standard of TC intensity adopted by China Meteorological Administration(CMA):Severe Tropical Storm(STS),Typhoon(TY),Severe Typhoon(STY) and Super Typhoon(SuperT Y).For each TC snapshot,the mean rainfall distribution is computed using 10-km annuli from the TC center to a 300-km radius,then the axisymmetric component of TC rainfall is represented by the radial distribution of the azimuthal mean rain rate;the mean rain rates,rain types occurrence and contribution proportion are computed for each TC intensity class;and the mean quadrantal distribution of rain rates along TCs motion is analyzed.The result shows that:(1) TCs mean rain rates increase with their intensity classes,and their radial distributions show single-peak characteristic gradually,and furthermore,the characteristics of rain rates occurrence and contribution proportion change from dual-peak to single-peak distribution,with the peak rain rate at about 5.0mm/h;(2) Stratiform rain dominate the rain type in the analysis zone,while convective rain mainly occurred in the eye-wall region;(3) The values of mean rain rate in each quadrant along TCs motion are close to each other,relatively,the value in the right-rear quadrant is the smallest one.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90502001 and 40475032)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences in China (Grant No. 2006CB403602).
文摘Daily precipitation rates observed at 576 stations in China from 1961 to 2000 were classified into six grades of intensity, including trace (no amount), slight (≤ 1 mm d^-1), small, large, heavy, and very heavy. The last four grades together constitute the so called effective precipitation (〉 1 mm d^-1). The spatial distribution and temporal trend of the graded precipitation days are examined. A decreasing trend in trace precipitation days is observed for the whole of China, except at several sites in the south of the middle section of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in slight precipitation days only appears in eastern China. The decreasing trend and interannual variability of trace precipitation days is consistent with the warming trend and corresponding temperature variability in China for the same period, indicating a possible role played by increased surface air temperature in cloud formation processes. For the effective precipitation days, a decreasing trend is observed along the Yellow River valley and for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, while an increasing trend is found for Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Northeast China and Southeast China. The decreasing trend of effective precipitation days for the middle- lower Yellow River valley and the increasing trend for the lower Yangtze River valley are most likely linked to anomalous monsoon circulation in East China. The most important contributor to the trend in effective precipitation depends upon the region concerned.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91644226)the National Key Research Project of China (2016YFA0602004)Industry of National Public Welfare (Meteorological) Scientific Research (GYHY201206004)
文摘Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland(MCM) during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows:(1) During the last four decades of the 20^(th) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^(st) century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.(2) The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(3) On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.(4) The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.
文摘Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can represent all facets of meteorological drought, we took a multi-index approach for drought monitoring in this study. We assessed the ability of eight precipitation-based drought indices(SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index), PNI(Percent of Normal Index), DI(Deciles index), EDI(Effective drought index), CZI(China-Z index), MCZI(Modified CZI), RAI(Rainfall Anomaly Index), and ZSI(Z-score Index)) calculated from the station-observed precipitation data and the Ag MERRA gridded precipitation data to assess historical drought events during the period 1987–2010 for the Kashafrood Basin of Iran. We also presented the Degree of Dryness Index(DDI) for comparing the intensities of different drought categories in each year of the study period(1987–2010). In general, the correlations among drought indices calculated from the Ag MERRA precipitation data were higher than those derived from the station-observed precipitation data. All indices indicated the most severe droughts for the study period occurred in 2001 and 2008. Regardless of data input source, SPI, PNI, and DI were highly inter-correlated(R^2=0.99). Furthermore, the higher correlations(R^2=0.99) were also found between CZI and MCZI, and between ZSI and RAI. All indices were able to track drought intensity, but EDI and RAI showed higher DDI values compared with the other indices. Based on the strong correlation among drought indices derived from the Ag MERRA precipitation data and from the station-observed precipitation data, we suggest that the Ag MERRA precipitation data can be accepted to fill the gaps existed in the station-observed precipitation data in future studies in Iran. In addition, if tested by station-observed precipitation data, the Ag MERRA precipitation data may be used for the data-lacking areas.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFE0118100-1)。
文摘Extreme precipitation events bring considerable risks to the natural ecosystem and human life.Investigating the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and predicting it quantitatively are critical for the flood prevention and water resources planning and management.In this study,daily precipitation data(1957–2019)were collected from 24 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin(WRB),Northwest China and its surrounding areas.We first analyzed the spatial-temporal change of precipitation extremes in the WRB based on space-time cube(STC),and then predicted precipitation extremes using long short-term memory(LSTM)network,auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and hybrid ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)-LSTM-ARIMA models.The precipitation extremes increased as the spatial variation from northwest to southeast of the WRB.There were two clusters for each extreme precipitation index,which were distributed in the northwestern and southeastern or northern and southern of the WRB.The precipitation extremes in the WRB present a strong clustering pattern.Spatially,the pattern of only high-high cluster and only low-low cluster were primarily located in lower reaches and upper reaches of the WRB,respectively.Hot spots(25.00%–50.00%)were more than cold spots(4.17%–25.00%)in the WRB.Cold spots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern part,while hot spots were mostly located in the eastern and southern parts.For different extreme precipitation indices,the performances of the different models were different.The accuracy ranking was EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA>LSTM>ARIMA in predicting simple daily intensity index(SDII)and consecutive wet days(CWD),while the accuracy ranking was LSTM>EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA>ARIMA in predicting very wet days(R95 P).The hybrid EEMD-LSTM-ARIMA model proposed was generally superior to single models in the prediction of precipitation extremes.
基金supported by Special Funds for Public Welfare of China (Grant No.GYHY-QX-2007)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40730950,40675027,and 40805007)
文摘The impact of the subtropical high (STH) on precipitation was investigated on a daily timescale using matched NCEP and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) datasets.Comparison of the conditional probability (intensity) of precipitation under STH condi-tions with that under non-STH conditions suggests that the presence of the STH conditions has a limited impact on local precipitation.In the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH),precipitation was only 30% lower under STH conditions than under non-STH conditions.The STH conditions had somewhat more impact on precipitation intensity,but it was still 50% less than the intensity under non-STH conditions (mean of roughly 5 mm d 1).Pre-cipitation under STH conditions was found to be highly correlated with vertical motion.Active updrafts occurring even under STH conditions are essential for frequent oc-currences and moderate intensities of precipitation.
基金funded by the CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)Overseas Institutions Platform Project(Grant No.131C11KYSB20200033)the NSFC-ICIMOD Joint Research Project(Grant No.41661144038)。
文摘Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers U20A2097,42175042,41905037,41805054]the China Scholarship Council[grant numbers 201908510031 and 201908510032]the Plateau and Basin Rainstorm,Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province[grant number SCQXKJZD202102-6]。
基金the Finnish Cultural Foundation and Maa-ja vesitekniikan tuki r.y. (MVTT, 29188) for funding this researchsupported by Swedish VR, BECC and MERGE programs
文摘Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south(Kaisaniemi),centre(Kajaani) and north(Sodankyl€a). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation(0 mm < daily precipitation long-term 50 th percentile of daily precipitation more than 0 mm) significantly( p < 0.05) decreased over time,with the highest rate in northern Finland. These decreasing trends might be the result of significant increases in frequency of days with very light precipitation at all the stations, with the highest and lowest rates in northern and southern Finland, respectively. Ratio of annual total precipitation to number of precipitation days also declined in Finland over 1908e2008, with a decreasing north to south gradient. However, annual duration indices of daily precipitation revealed no statistically significant trends at any station. Daily precipitation characteristics showed significant relationships with various well-known atmospheric circulation patterns(ACPs). In particular, the East Atlantic/West Russia(EA/WR)pattern in summer was the most influential ACP negatively associated with different daily precipitation intensity, frequency and duration indices at all three stations studied.
基金Supported by " Eleventh Five-Year" Key Research Project of Liaoning Science and Technology Agency (2006210001)
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze summer precipitation efficiency in Shenyang.[Method] By using the method which estimated the cloud water resource,based on the vertical accumulated liquid water content which was observed by 'QFW-1 dual-channel microwave radiometer' and the rain intensity data which had 1min interval and were inverted by 'particle laser-based optical measurement' (Parsivel),the precipitation efficiency in Shenyang area during July-August,2007 was analyzed.[Result] When the rain intensity I<7.5 mm/h,the precipitation efficiency E was stable and was during 3.2%-2.7%.The average value was 3.0%.When the rain intensity I ≥7.5 mm/h,the precipitation efficiency E presented the linear increasing as the rain intensity I increased.The bigger the rain intensity was,the more the remaining liquid water content in the air was,and the bigger the artificial precipitation potential was.[Conclusion] The research provided the guidance role for analyzing the cloud water resource in the air and the artificial precipitation potential.
文摘With the help of the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle and the short-term mutual coherence function, the analytical formula of short-term average intensity for multi-Gaussian beam (MGB) in the turbulent a^mosphere has been derived. The intensity in the absence of turbulence and the long-term average intensity in turbulence can both also be expressed in this formula. As special cases, comparisons among short-term average intensity, long-term average intensity, and the intensity in the absence of turbulence for flat topped beam and annular beam are carried out. The effects of the order of MGB, propagation distance and aperture radius on beam spreading are analysed and discussed in detail.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB956201)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-EW-202)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(GYHY201106028)
文摘Characteristics of diurnal cycle precipitation over China are investigated using twice-daily observations by the China Meteorological Administration during 1960–2000. Characteristics investigated include nighttime/daytime precipitation amount(PA), intensity, and frequency. Geographically, the region is separated into western and eastern China by the 110°E longitude. Our analysis shows that there generally is more night-time than daytime precipitation in western China, particularly in the Sichuan Basin. Over eastern China, the opposite holds true, particularly along the southeast coast. Regional average monthly daytime and night-time precipitation peaks in the same month for both western and eastern China. Over western China, monthly night-time precipitation is always greater than that during daytime, but the night-time precipitation frequency(PF) is only greater in non-summer(June–August) months. Over eastern China, daytime precipitation is greater than that in the night-time during the warm season(May–August) in both amount and frequency. The night-day difference(night-time minus daytime) in PA over western China is mainly influenced by precipitation intensity, while over eastern China the night-day difference in rainfall amount is mostly driven by PF.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2012CB957804)Natural Science Foundation of China(41175051)
文摘Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.
文摘This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.