To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduc...To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios.展开更多
Reliable and accurate ultra-short-term prediction of wind power is vital for the operation and optimization of power systems.However,the volatility and intermittence of wind power pose uncertainties to traditional poi...Reliable and accurate ultra-short-term prediction of wind power is vital for the operation and optimization of power systems.However,the volatility and intermittence of wind power pose uncertainties to traditional point prediction,resulting in an increased risk of power system operation.To represent the uncertainty of wind power,this paper proposes a new method for ultra-short-term interval prediction of wind power based on a graph neural network(GNN)and an improved Bootstrap technique.Specifically,adjacent wind farms and local meteorological factors are modeled as the new form of a graph from the graph-theoretic perspective.Then,the graph convolutional network(GCN)and bi-directional long short-term memory(Bi-LSTM)are proposed to capture spatiotemporal features between nodes in the graph.To obtain highquality prediction intervals(PIs),an improved Bootstrap technique is designed to increase coverage percentage and narrow PIs effectively.Numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed method can capture the spatiotemporal correlations from the graph,and the prediction results outperform popular baselines on two real-world datasets,which implies a high potential for practical applications in power systems.展开更多
This work proposed a LSTM(long short-term memory)model based on the double attention mechanism for power load prediction,to further improve the energy-saving potential and accurately control the distribution of power ...This work proposed a LSTM(long short-term memory)model based on the double attention mechanism for power load prediction,to further improve the energy-saving potential and accurately control the distribution of power load into each department of the hospital.Firstly,the key influencing factors of the power loads were screened based on the grey relational degree analysis.Secondly,in view of the characteristics of the power loads affected by various factors and time series changes,the feature attention mechanism and sequential attention mechanism were introduced on the basis of LSTM network.The former was used to analyze the relationship between the historical information and input variables autonomously to extract important features,and the latter was used to select the historical information at critical moments of LSTM network to improve the stability of long-term prediction effects.In the end,the experimental results from the power loads of Shanxi Eye Hospital show that the LSTM model based on the double attention mechanism has the higher forecasting accuracy and stability than the conventional LSTM,CNN-LSTM and attention-LSTM models.展开更多
文摘To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios.
文摘Reliable and accurate ultra-short-term prediction of wind power is vital for the operation and optimization of power systems.However,the volatility and intermittence of wind power pose uncertainties to traditional point prediction,resulting in an increased risk of power system operation.To represent the uncertainty of wind power,this paper proposes a new method for ultra-short-term interval prediction of wind power based on a graph neural network(GNN)and an improved Bootstrap technique.Specifically,adjacent wind farms and local meteorological factors are modeled as the new form of a graph from the graph-theoretic perspective.Then,the graph convolutional network(GCN)and bi-directional long short-term memory(Bi-LSTM)are proposed to capture spatiotemporal features between nodes in the graph.To obtain highquality prediction intervals(PIs),an improved Bootstrap technique is designed to increase coverage percentage and narrow PIs effectively.Numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed method can capture the spatiotemporal correlations from the graph,and the prediction results outperform popular baselines on two real-world datasets,which implies a high potential for practical applications in power systems.
基金Supported by the Shaanxi Provincial Education Department 2022 Key Research Program Project(22JS022)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51808428)
文摘This work proposed a LSTM(long short-term memory)model based on the double attention mechanism for power load prediction,to further improve the energy-saving potential and accurately control the distribution of power load into each department of the hospital.Firstly,the key influencing factors of the power loads were screened based on the grey relational degree analysis.Secondly,in view of the characteristics of the power loads affected by various factors and time series changes,the feature attention mechanism and sequential attention mechanism were introduced on the basis of LSTM network.The former was used to analyze the relationship between the historical information and input variables autonomously to extract important features,and the latter was used to select the historical information at critical moments of LSTM network to improve the stability of long-term prediction effects.In the end,the experimental results from the power loads of Shanxi Eye Hospital show that the LSTM model based on the double attention mechanism has the higher forecasting accuracy and stability than the conventional LSTM,CNN-LSTM and attention-LSTM models.
文摘新能源并网后的供电体系存在具有较高的间歇性和随机性,这将为电力生产和调度的平衡带来巨大挑战,而如何量化电力负荷的不确定性对电力系统安全经济地运行起着重要作用。为此,提出一种基于多目标和贝叶斯优化(multi-objective optimization and Bayesian optimization,MOBO)的深度学习区间预测模型,能在给定的置信水平下描述电力负荷的变化趋势。在预测模型的构建过程中,依据分位数回归理论计算出电力负荷在不同分位点处的预测区间,再通过有效性检验,筛选出合理的预测模型。同时,采用多目标优化和贝叶斯优化算法理论对深度学习模型的超参数进行调优。使用美国纽约州米尔伍德的电力负荷数据集对所提出的模型进行验证,实验结果表明,与其他模型相比,模型在不同置信水平下均有着更高的预测区间覆盖率和更窄的区间平均宽度,更能精确地描述未来电力负荷的波动范围。
