Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering Analysis

With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.

Economic Power Dispatching from Distributed Generations: Review of Optimization Techniques

In the increasingly decentralized energy environment,economical power dispatching from distributed generations(DGs)is crucial to minimizing operating costs,optimizing resource utilization,and guaranteeing a consistent and sustainable supply of electricity.A comprehensive review of optimization techniques for economic power dispatching from distributed generations is imperative to identify the most effective strategies for minimizing operational costs while maintaining grid stability and sustainability.The choice of optimization technique for economic power dispatching from DGs depends on a number of factors,such as the size and complexity of the power system,the availability of computational resources,and the specific requirements of the application.Optimization techniques for economic power dispatching from distributed generations(DGs)can be classified into two main categories:(i)Classical optimization techniques,(ii)Heuristic optimization techniques.In classical optimization techniques,the linear programming(LP)model is one of the most popular optimization methods.Utilizing the LP model,power demand and network constraints are met while minimizing the overall cost of generating electricity from DGs.This approach is efficient in determining the best DGs dispatch and is capable of handling challenging optimization issues in the large-scale system including renewables.The quadratic programming(QP)model,a classical optimization technique,is a further popular optimization method,to consider non-linearity.The QP model can take into account the quadratic cost of energy production,with consideration constraints like network capacity,voltage,and frequency.The metaheuristic optimization techniques are also used for economic power dispatching from DGs,which include genetic algorithms(GA),particle swarm optimization(PSO),and ant colony optimization(ACO).Also,Some researchers are developing hybrid optimization techniques that combine elements of classical and heuristic optimization techniques with the incorporation of droop control,predictive control,and fuzzy-based methods.These methods can deal with large-scale systems with many objectives and non-linear,non-convex optimization issues.The most popular approaches are the LP and QP models,while more difficult problems are handled using metaheuristic optimization techniques.In summary,in order to increase efficiency,reduce costs,and ensure a consistent supply of electricity,optimization techniques are essential tools used in economic power dispatching from DGs.

A low-carbon economic dispatch model for electricity market with wind power based on improved ant-lion optimisation algorithm

Introducing carbon trading into electricity market can convert carbon dioxide into schedulable resources with economic value.However,the randomness of wind power generation puts forward higher requirements for electricity market transactions.Therefore,the carbon trading market is introduced into the wind power market,and a new form of low-carbon economic dispatch model is developed.First,the economic dispatch goal of wind power is be considered.It is projected to save money and reduce the cost of power generation for the system.The model includes risk operating costs to account for the impact of wind power output variability on the system,as well as wind farm negative efficiency operating costs to account for the loss caused by wind abandonment.The model also employs carbon trading market metrics to achieve the goal of lowering system carbon emissions,and analyze the impact of different carbon trading prices on the system.A low-carbon economic dispatch model for the wind power market is implemented based on the following two goals.Finally,the solution is optimised using the Ant-lion optimisation method,which combines Levi's flight mechanism and golden sine.The proposed model and algorithm's rationality is proven through the use of cases.

Wind farm active power dispatching algorithm based on Grey Incidence

This study proposes a wind farm active power dispatching(WFAPD) algorithm based on the grey incidence method, which does not rely on an accurate mathematical model of wind turbines. Based on the wind turbine start-stop data at different wind speeds, the weighting coefficients, which are the participation degrees of a variable speed system and a variable pitch system in power regulation, are obtained using the grey incidence method. The incidence coefficient curve is fitted by the B-spline function at a full range of wind speeds, and the power regulation capacity of all wind turbines is obtained. Finally, the WFAPD algorithm, which is based on the regulating capacity of each wind turbine, is compared with the wind speed weighting power dispatching(WSWPD) algorithm in MATLAB. The simulation results show that the active power fluctuation of the wind farm is smaller, the rotating speed of wind turbines is smoother, and the fatigue load of highspeed turbines is effectively reduced.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting with Hybrid TPA-BiLSTM Prediction Model Based on CSSA

Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.

Two-Stage Optimal Dispatching of Wind Power-Photovoltaic-Solar Thermal Combined System Considering Economic Optimality and Fairness

Aiming at the problems of large-scale wind and solar grid connection,how to ensure the economy of system operation and how to realize fair scheduling between new energy power stations,a two-stage optimal dispatching model of wind power-photovoltaic-solar thermal combined system considering economic optimality and fairness is proposed.Firstly,the first stage dispatching model takes the overall economy optimization of the system as the goal and the principle of maximizing the consumption of wind and solar output,obtains the optimal output value under the economic conditions of each new energy station,and then obtains the maximum consumption space of the new energy station.Secondly,based on the optimization results of the first stage,the second stage dispatching model uses the dispatching method of fuzzy comprehensive ranking priority to prioritize the new energy stations,and then makes a fair allocation to the dispatching of the wind and solar stations.Finally,the analysis of a specific example shows that themodel can take into account the fairness of active power distribution of new energy stations on the basis of ensuring the economy of system operation,make full use of the consumption space,and realize the medium and long-term fairness distribution of dispatching plan.

Short-term train arrival delay prediction:a data-driven approach

Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance.

Rolling Generation Dispatch Based on Ultra-short-term Wind Power Forecast

The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A rolling generation dispatch model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast was proposed. In generation dispatch process, the model rolling correct not only the conventional units power output but also the power from wind farm, simultaneously. Second order Markov chain model was utilized to modify wind power prediction error state (WPPES) and update forecast results of wind power over the remaining dispatch periods. The prime-dual affine scaling interior point method was used to solve the proposed model that taken into account the constraints of multi-periods power balance, unit output adjustment, up spinning reserve and down spinning reserve.

Parallel Dispatch:A New Paradigm of Electrical Power System Dispatch

Modern power systems are evolving into sociotechnical systems with massive complexity, whose real-time operation and dispatch go beyond human capability. Thus,the need for developing and applying new intelligent power system dispatch tools are of great practical significance. In this paper, we introduce the overall business model of power system dispatch, the top level design approach of an intelligent dispatch system, and the parallel intelligent technology with its dispatch applications. We expect that a new dispatch paradigm,namely the parallel dispatch, can be established by incorporating various intelligent technologies, especially the parallel intelligent technology, to enable secure operation of complex power grids,extend system operators' capabilities, suggest optimal dispatch strategies, and to provide decision-making recommendations according to power system operational goals.

Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

Collective Entity Alignment for Knowledge Fusion of Power Grid Dispatching Knowledge Graphs

Knowledge graphs(KGs)have been widely accepted as powerful tools for modeling the complex relationships between concepts and developing knowledge-based services.In recent years,researchers in the field of power systems have explored KGs to develop intelligent dispatching systems for increasingly large power grids.With multiple power grid dispatching knowledge graphs(PDKGs)constructed by different agencies,the knowledge fusion of different PDKGs is useful for providing more accurate decision supports.To achieve this,entity alignment that aims at connecting different KGs by identifying equivalent entities is a critical step.Existing entity alignment methods cannot integrate useful structural,attribute,and relational information while calculating entities’similarities and are prone to making many-to-one alignments,thus can hardly achieve the best performance.To address these issues,this paper proposes a collective entity alignment model that integrates three kinds of available information and makes collective counterpart assignments.This model proposes a novel knowledge graph attention network(KGAT)to learn the embeddings of entities and relations explicitly and calculates entities’similarities by adaptively incorporating the structural,attribute,and relational similarities.Then,we formulate the counterpart assignment task as an integer programming(IP)problem to obtain one-to-one alignments.We not only conduct experiments on a pair of PDKGs but also evaluate o ur model on three commonly used cross-lingual KGs.Experimental comparisons indicate that our model outperforms other methods and provides an effective tool for the knowledge fusion of PDKGs.

Short-term power generation scheduling rules for cascade hydropower stations based on hybrid algorithm

Power generation dispatching is a large complex system problem with multi-dimensional and nonlinear characteristics. A mathematical model was established based on the principle of reservoir operation. A large quantity of optimal scheduling processes were obtained by calculating the daily runoff process within three typical years, and a large number of simulated daily runoff processes were obtained using the progressive optimality algorithm （POA） in combination with the genetic algorithm （GA）. After analyzing the optimal scheduling processes, the corresponding scheduling rules were determined, and the practical formulas were obtained. These rules can make full use of the rolling runoff forecast and carry out the rolling scheduling. Compared with the optimized results, the maximum relative difference of the annual power generation obtained by the scheduling rules is no more than 1%. The effectiveness and practical applicability of the scheduling rules are demonstrated by a case study. This study provides a new perspective for formulating the rules of power generation dispatching.

Large-Scale Distributed Photovoltaic Power Dispatching and Operation Management Review

Distributed photovoltaic power (PV) is the main development model of distributed generation. It is necessary to research on dispatching and operation management with large-scale distributed PV connected. This paper analyzes development status, technical requirement and dispatching and operation management situation of distributed PV in Germany and China. Then introduce the preparation of distributed PV dispatching and operation management criterion. Through summarizing the experiences and lessons of large-scale distributed PV development in Germany, it gives advice to the development of distributed PV dispatching and operation management in China.

Solution of Combined Heat and Power Economic Dispatch Problem Using Direct Optimization Algorithm

This paper presents the solution to the combined heat and power economic dispatch problem using a direct solution algorithm for constrained optimization problems. With the potential of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) production to increase the efficiency of power and heat generation simultaneously having been researched and established, the increasing penetration of CHP systems, and determination of economic dispatch of power and heat assumes higher relevance. The Combined Heat and Power Economic Dispatch (CHPED) problem is a demanding optimization problem as both constraints and objective functions can be non-linear and non-convex. This paper presents an explicit formula developed for computing the system-wide incremental costs corresponding with optimal dispatch. The circumvention of the use of iterative search schemes for this crucial step is the innovation inherent in the proposed dispatch procedure. The feasible operating region of the CHP unit three is taken into account in the proposed CHPED problem model, whereas the optimal dispatch of power/heat outputs of CHP unit is determined using the direct Lagrange multiplier solution algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to a test system with four units and results are provided.

Dynamic Economic Dispatch for Wind Power System Considering System Security and Spinning Reserve

In this paper, dynamic economic dispatch model is proposed for power systems with bulk wind power integration. The wind turbine generators are assumed to partially undertake the spinning reserve for the thermal generator. A double-layer optimization model is proposed. The outer layer use the differential evolution to search for the power output of thermal generators, and the inner layer use the primal-dual interior point method to solve the OPF of the established output state. Finally, the impact of spinning reserve with wind power on power system operating is validated.

Economic Dispatch of Electrical Power System Based on the Multi-objective Co-evolutionary Algorithm

It is important to distribute the load efficiently to minimize the cost of the economic dispatch of electrical power system. The uncertainty and volatility of wind energy make the economic dispatch much more complex when the general power systems are combined with wind farms. The short term wind power prediction method was discussed in this paper. The method was based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore,the effect of wind farms on the traditional economic dispatch of electrical power system was analyzed. The mathematical model of the economic dispatch was established considering the environmental factors and extra spinning reserve cost. The multi-objective co-evolutionary algorithm was used to figure out the model. And the results were compared with the NSGA-Ⅱ(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-Ⅱ) to verify its feasibility.

Challenges and Improvements of Wind Power Dispatch in Northwest China

Besides common characteristics of wind power,there are some special characteristics in China power system,including large-scale,long distance transmission and lack of flexible regulating power sources.These special characteristics make power dispatch more challenging in China.Many studies have been carried out and some improvements are presented including wind power monitoring and control as well as evaluation of wind power integration capabilities.As a demonstration project,the technologies are integrated into the energy management system and are implemented in the Northwest China power system.They provide effective measures for wind power dispatch in the grid.

Operating Analysis and Data Mining System for Power Grid Dispatching

The dispatching center of power-grid companies is also the data center of the power grid where gathers great amount of operating information. The valuable information contained in these data means a lot for power grid operating management, but at present there is no special method for the management of operating data resource. This paper introduces the operating analysis and data mining system for power grid dispatching. The technique of data warehousing online analytical processing has been used to manage and analysis the great capacity of data. This analysis system is based on the real-time data of the power grid to dig out the potential rule of the power grid operating. This system also provides a research platform for the dispatchers, help to improve the JIT (Just in Time) management of power system.

Synergetic Dispatch of Power System with Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy

This paper comes up with a concept of synergetic advanced dispatch in order to deal with the ever-increasing uncertainty in power grid: Decision is made with respecting to AGC units and active load on the basis of synergetic unit combination such that active load’s advantages in regulation speed is put to full use in achieving efficient cooperation with renewable energy power. Meanwhile, factoring in allowable frequency variation range during decision-making may help to reduce AGC units’ regulation load and improve power grid's capacity of accommodating renewable energy power. Calculation example analysis suggested that the model and technique presented in this paper is capable of efficient coordination between active loads and renewable energy power, delivering friendly transition with day-ahead dispatch and AVC control.