Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System Using Lightning Strike Probability Prediction

The transmission lines are exposed to the atmosphere nature and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, build the lightning strike fault probability model of the transmission line based on historical lightning record information, then calculate the lightning strike probability under the forecasting weather conditions, furthermore evaluate the reliability index of transmission system. Utilizing IEEE RTS-79 system to verify the validity of the proposed model and the results show that lightning has great negative influence on the transmission lines and the reliability of transmission system. The reliability evaluation model proposed in this paper can guide the short-term operation and online scheduling for transmission system operators.

Evaluation of the Reliability of a System: Approach by Monte Carlo Simulation and Application

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a system in its different states (absence of failures, partial failure and total failure) and to propose actions to improve this reliability by an approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. It consists of a probabilistic evaluation based on Markov Chains. In order to achieve this goal, the functionalities of Markov Chains and Monte Carlo simulation steps are deployed. The application is made on a production system. .

Evaluation Test Research of DR Inspection System for Circumferential Welds in Long Distance Pipeline

Digital radiographic(DR)testing equipment has been widely promoted and applied in the inspection of circumferential welds in oil and gas pipelines.In order to establish a comprehensive quality control system for digital radiographic testing and fully evaluate the integrated system inspection ability of equipment,personnel,and processes,a scientific and standardized evaluation method to the system is very necessary.Here investigates the precedents of relevant non-destructive testing evaluation methods at home and abroad,considers the testing characteristics of DR equipment,develops a complete set of DR testing system evaluation procedures.It deeply studies the adaptability methods of program processes from defect production to slicing processing and data statistical calculation for digital radiographic testing evaluation.To check the repeatability and reliability of the detectable system,five process welds with 200 real metallographic defects were fabricated in the laboratory.From the detected results,the DR system has good repeatability in image quality,and the detectable defect size reaches 0.85 mm under achieving 90%detection probability at a confidence level of 95%,the error of detected defect length is±2 mm,and the error of detected defect localization is±5 mm.The qualitative and quantitative detection of defects are accurate and reliable.The test further confirmed the reliable detection ability of the DR detection system,and fully validated the scientific and practical evaluation method designed.The research on the evaluation test method can serve as an important link in the quality control system for the on-site application of digital ray equipment in long-distance pipelines.The designed program,test,and evaluation content can serve as an important basis for the formulation of relevant specifications or standards.

Building the Capacity of Health Professionals in Monitoring and Evaluation in a Public Health Institution: Experience of the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) of Côte d’Ivoire

Background: In the context of the fight against HIV, a lack of skills in monitoring and evaluating the personnel in charge of activities has been identified at the national level. It was the subject of a priority axis of the national plan for monitoring and evaluating the fight against HIV (2006-2010) that was aimed at strengthening the capacities of actors in this area. To increase the critical mass of competent human resources in the short term, the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) of Côte d’Ivoire organized monitoring and evaluation training sessions for healthcare professionals from 2011 to 2016. Methods: A single case study with multiple levels of analysis was carried out, combining a qualitative survey and a literature review. An evaluation was carried out six months after each training session. In addition, the results of the pre- and post-tests and of the daily and final evaluations that accompanied the various training sessions were used to provide further information. The qualitative data collected were analyzed using INVIVO 15 software. Results: Some 89 health professionals (69% men and 31% women) working at the national level (51% at the central level, including 58% in health programs) and in development partner agencies (37%) participated in this capacity building program. Most participants were senior health managers (56%), data managers (23%), and statisticians and computer scientists (10%). Almost all the trainings were financed by 16 technical and financial partners (85%), mainly the MEASURE Evaluation project (27%). Conclusion: M&E training, despite all its imperfections, has made it possible to identify M&E training needs at the national level and to increase the critical mass of national skills and to have some culture in M&E.

Validity and reliability of the evaluation tool of TCM confidence in students with TCM learning experience

Objective:This study aimed to design an evaluation scale of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)confidence and then evaluate its validity and reliability.Methods:Three parallel samples with TCM learning experience were included in this current study.Randomly selected 500 nursing students were included factor analysis and reliability and validity analyses.After 4 weeks,200 nursing students were recruited to retest the reliability.The evaluation tool of TCM confidence included 6 dimensions and 25 entries.Results:Cronbach's a coefficient of the evaluation scale was 0.95 and that of the 6 observed aspects were higher than 0.90,and splithalf reliability was 0.81.For the retest reliability,Cronbach's a coefficient of the evaluation scale was 0.93 and that of the 6 examined aspects was all over 0.80.The index of content validity Scale Content Validity Index(S-CVI)was 0.92 and Item Content Validity Index(I-CVI)was 0.83–1.00.Conclusions:Observed results may indicate that the designed tool can be used to assess the TCM confidence level of students with TCM studied experience and also can evaluate results of TCM education during studying TCM lectures.

An efficient reliability evaluation method for industrial wireless sensor networks

Aimed at the difficulties in accurately, comprehensively and systematically evaluating the reliability of industrial wireless sensor networks （WSNs）, a time-evolving state transition-Monte Carlo （TEST-MC） evaluation method and a novel network function value representation method are proposed to evaluate the reliability of the IWSNs. First, the adjacency matrix method is used to characterize three typical topologies of WSNs including the mesh network, tree network and ribbon network. Secondly, the network function value method is used to evaluate the network connectivity, and the TEST-MC evaluation method is used to evaluate network reliability and availability. Finally, the variations in the reliability, connectivity and availability of these three topologies are presented. Simulation results show that the proposed method can quickly analyze the reliability of the networks containing typical WSN topologies, which provides an effective method for the comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the reliability of WSNs.

Bus transit travel time reliability evaluation based on automatic vehicle location data

In order to provide important parameters for schedule designing, decision-making bases for transit operation management and references for passengers traveling by bus, bus transit travel time reliability is analyzed and evaluated based on automatic vehicle location （AVL） data. Based on the statistical analysis of the bus transit travel time, six indices including the coefficient of variance, the width of travel time distribution, the mean commercial speed, the congestion frequency, the planning time index and the buffer time index are proposed. Moreover, a framework for evaluating bus transit travel time reliability is constructed. Finally, a case study on a certain bus route in Suzhou is conducted. Results show that the proposed evaluation index system is simple and intuitive, and it can effectively reflect the efficiency and stability of bus operations. And a distinguishing feature of bus transit travel time reliability is the temporal pattern. It varies across different time periods.

RELIABILITY EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON DATA FUSION FOR AIRCRAFT ENGINES

Reliability evaluation for aircraft engines is difficult because of the scarcity of failure data. But aircraft engine data are available from a variety of sources. Data fusion has the function of maximizing the amount of valu- able information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain the comprehensive reliability knowledge. Consid- ering the degradation failure and the catastrophic failure simultaneously, which are competing risks and can affect the reliability, a reliability evaluation model based on data fusion for aircraft engines is developed, Above the characteristics of the proposed model, reliability evaluation is more feasible than that by only utilizing failure data alone, and is also more accurate than that by only considering single failure mode. Example shows the effective- ness of the proposed model.

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

In order to rectify the problems that the com- ponent reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evalu- ation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influ- enced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure proba- bility function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following： 1） The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2） The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree ofthe system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

Psychometric evaluation of Iranian version of nursing faculty’s incivility questionnaire

Objective:Faculty incivility is a growing problem in nursing schools that disrupts the learning process and affects nursing care of patients.Fostering and managing faculty incivility requires knowing this problem using a valid and reliable instrument.The purpose of this research was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the faculty’s perceived incivility questionnaire in the Iranian community.Methods:In this methodological study,the participants involved were 357 nursing students.They were selected between October and December 2019.The faculty’s perceived incivility questionnaire was evaluated in terms of content and construct validity.McDonald’s omega and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were calculated.Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to evaluate the construct validity of the questionnaire.Results:The content validity index(CVI)was 0.86-0.91 for the items and 0.87 for the whole instrument.In factor analysis,two factors of violent and irresponsible behaviors were extracted.These factors explained>41.769%of the variance.Model fit indices(Parsimonious Comparative Fit Index[PCFI]=0.783,Parsimonious Normed Fit Index[PNFI]=0.756,root mean square error of approximation[RMSEA]=0.051,Goodness-of-Fit Index[GFI]=0.955,Adjusted Goodness-of-Fit Index[AGFI]=0.932,Comparative Fit Index[CFI]=0.955,χ^(2)/df=2.26)indicated the proportion of factors.Internal consistency was 0.87-0.93.Conclusions:Faculty’s perceived incivility questionnaire is a valid and reliable tool with two factors that can be used to evaluate the incivility in Iranian faculty members.

Simulation Evaluation Study of System Reliability Based on Improved BayesBootstrap Method

For the disadvantages of analyzing system reliability using common Bayes method,an evaluation method based on improved Bayes-Bootstrap method is presented.Firstly,the data obliteration problem existing in traditional Bayes method is analyzed,then an improved sampling arithmetic is proposed on the foundation of an experience function.Finally,effectiveness of this method is proved by an example.The simulating result shows that this method is more accurate than common Bayes method.

Reliability evaluation method and algorithm for electromechanical product

The reliability of electromechanical product is usually determined by the fault number and working time traditionally. The shortcoming of this method is that the product must be in service. To design and enhance the reliability of the electromechanical product, the reliability evaluation method must be feasible and correct. Reliability evaluation method and algorithm were proposed. The reliability of product can be calculated by the reliability of subsystems which can be gained by experiment or historical data. The reliability of the machining center was evaluated by the method and algorithm as one example. The calculation result shows that the solution accuracy of mean time between failures is 97.4% calculated by the method proposed in this article compared by the traditional method. The method and algorithm can be used to evaluate the reliability of electromechanical product before it is in service.

Reliability Evaluation of All-User Terminals in LEO Satellite Communication Network Based on Modular Reduction

LEO satellite communication network has a large number of satellites distributed in low orbits,which leads to multiple coverage of many areas on the ground.It is hard work to describe and evaluate the reliability of LEO satellite communication network.To solve this problem,the reliability of all-user terminals in LEO satellite communication network is defined,and the corresponding reliability evaluation method is proposed in the paper.Due to the large scale of the interstellar network,a modular reduction algorithm using the modular network instead of the original network for state decomposition is proposed in this paper.Case study shows that the calculation time of the proposed method is equivalent to 6.28%of the original state space decomposition algorithm.On this basis,the reliability of LEO satellite communication network is further analyzed.It is found that the reliability of LEO satellite network was more sensitive to the reliability of Inter-Satellite link and the satisfaction of global coverage in the early stage,and it is more sensitive to the reliability of the satellite in the later stage.The satellite-ground link has a relatively constant impact on of LEO satellite network.

A reliability evaluation method for embryonic cellular array based on Markov status graph model

Due to the limitations of the existing fault detection methods in the embryonic cellular array(ECA), the fault detection coverage cannot reach 100%. In order to evaluate the reliability of the ECA more accurately, embryonic cell and its input and output(I/O) resources are considered as a whole, named functional unit(FU). The FU fault detection coverage parameter is introduced to ECA reliability analysis, and a new ECA reliability evaluation method based on the Markov status graph model is proposed.Simulation experiment results indicate that the proposed ECA reliability evaluation method can evaluate the ECA reliability more effectively and accurately. Based on the proposed reliability evaluation method, the influence of parameters change on the ECA reliability is studied, and simulation experiment results show that ECA reliability can be improved by increasing the FU fault detection coverage and reducing the FU failure rate. In addition, by increasing the scale of the ECA, the reliability increases to the maximum first, and then it will decrease continuously. ECA reliability variation rules can not only provide theoretical guidance for the ECA optimization design, but also point out the direction for further research.

The Wartime Bridge Reliability Evaluation Model Based on Birth-and-Death Process

At first, the concept of bridge reliability is given, followed with its mathematic model. Then, based on the analysis about the mechanism of the damage and repair of bridges, and the state diversion of bridge network, the state diversion process is proved to be birth-and-death process. In the end, the state diversion balance equation of bridge network is built, and the evaluation model of wartime bridge reliability is got. The model is used in a certain example, and it is proved to be precise and credible.

Reliability Evaluation Metrics for Open Source Software Selection

Recently, Open Source Software （OSS） is so widely used not only by companies for development but also by common users instead of commercial software. However, the number of OSS is vast, and its quality varies from low to high. So how people can evaluate OSS and ensta-e that it is reliable for use becomes necessary. This paper proposes a set of reliability evaluation metrics considering the states of OSS selected in the early stage. Understandability, Fault tolerance ＆ Recoverability and Community Matmrity as sub-attributes of reliability are defined, and then several evaluation criteria for each of them are identified. A process of reliability evaluation in our study is proposed. For application, we select four OSS projects and evaluate them with our metrics. As a result of compadrison with other evaluation model for OSS, our research presents an easy, effective and trustworthy way for selecting a reliable OSS.

Study on the Reliability Evaluation of Qualitative Indices in Multi-Objective Decision

Qualitative indices in multi-objective decision can usually be evaluated and measured by mathematical methods or models, but the obtained results are sometimes inaccurate because of fuzziness of indices. To improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation results, set-value statistic principle is applied, and accordingly four evaluation methods are obtained. Meanwhile, these methods are compared briefly.

The System Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Rock Slopes

The principal of preferred plane analysis is a new research view and model of rock slope engineering geology. It advocates that the rock slope stability, boundary conditions and failure model are controlled by preferred planes. Therefore, the problem of slope stability evaluation can be converted into the search for preferred planes and determination of preferred separating bodies. The organic combination of the deterministic model and the indeterministic model can be realized by applying the systems engineering principle and the research model and method of reliability analysis in the quantitative evaluation and prediction of rock slope stability. Finally, the paper presents the case studies of slopes of the Yangtze Gorge Project and the Ma'anshan openpit mine.

Research on Software Structure Analysis Technology and Reliability Evaluation Method of Warship Equipment

In view of the current reliability evaluation requirements of warship equipment based on component, this paper comprehensively considered the characteristics of components,and the component identification method, structural decomposition method,component architecture modeling method were studied for warship equipment software. Based on the characteristics of warship equipment component, this paper proposed a formal modeling language based on Petri nets to realize the modeling of component software architecture and laid a foundation for the reliability evaluation method research of warship equipment component.

Reliability Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-state System Based on Time Degradation Measures

The performance and state of multi-state system depend on its structure and different state combinations of the components. In order to evaluate the reliability of multi-state system effectively,a reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis method based on the time degradation measures was proposed. The equivalence sets of the multi-state system under different output performances were established. The state combinations were classified according to the performance level. The degradation probability models under different states were established,and the new reliability measures,such as dynamic probability of multi-state system,holding time in each state,dynamic expectation function and integrated expectation function of the performance,were proposed and used to implement the dynamic reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis. A certain diesel engine fuel feeding system was taken as an application example to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that not only the holding time in the desired state of the components and the system can be predicted,but also the best state component in a certain time period can be obtained.