Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean...Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.展开更多
Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same g...Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.展开更多
With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning ...With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.展开更多
With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting m...With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.展开更多
BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence r...BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.展开更多
Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and a...Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance.展开更多
The destruction of recombinant bamboo depends on many factors,and the complex ambient temperature is an important factor affecting its basic mechanical properties.To investigate the failure mechanism and stress–strai...The destruction of recombinant bamboo depends on many factors,and the complex ambient temperature is an important factor affecting its basic mechanical properties.To investigate the failure mechanism and stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo at different temperatures,eighteen tensile specimens of recombinant bamboo were tested.The results showed that with increasing ambient temperature,the typical failure modes of recombinant bamboo were flush fracture,toothed failure,and serrated failure.The ultimate tensile strength,ultimate strain and elastic modulus of recombinant bamboo decreased with increasing temperature,and the ultimate tensile stress decreased from 154.07 to 96.55 MPa,a decrease of 37.33%,and the ultimate strain decreased from 0.011 to 0.008,a decrease of 26.57%.Based on the Ramberg-Osgood model and the pseudo‒elastic design method,a predictive model was established for the tensile stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo considering the temperature level.The model can accurately evaluate the tensile stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo under different temperature conditions.展开更多
As the source and main producing area of tea in the world, China has formed unique tea culture, and achievedremarkable economic benefits. However, frequent meteorological disasters, particularly low temperature frostd...As the source and main producing area of tea in the world, China has formed unique tea culture, and achievedremarkable economic benefits. However, frequent meteorological disasters, particularly low temperature frostdamage in late spring has seriously threatened the growth status of tea trees and caused quality and yield reduction of tea industry. Thus, timely and accurate early warning of frost damage occurrence in specific tea garden isvery important for tea plantation management and economic values. Aiming at the problems existing in currentmeteorological disaster forecasting methods, such as difficulty in obtaining massive meteorological data, largeamount of calculation for predicted models and incomplete information on frost damage occurrence, this paperproposed a two-fold algorithm for short-term and real-time prediction of temperature using field environmentaldata, and temperature trend results from a nearest local weather station for accurate frost damage occurrence leveldetermination, so as to achieve a specific tea garden frost damage occurrence prediction in a microclimate. Timeseries meteorological data collected from a small weather station was used for testing and parameterization of atwo-fold method, and another dataset acquired from Tea Experimental Base of Zhejiang University was furtherused to validate the capability of a two-fold model for frost damage forecasting. Results showed that comparedwith the results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple linear regression (MLR),the proposed two-fold method using a second order Furrier fitting model and a K-Nearest Neighbor model(K = 3) with three days historical temperature data exhibited excellent accuracy for frost damage occurrence prediction on consideration of both model accuracy and computation (98.46% forecasted duration of frost damage,and 95.38% for forecasted temperature at the onset time). For field test in a tea garden, the proposed methodaccurately predicted three times frost damage occurrences, including onset time, duration and occurrence level.These results suggested the newly-proposed two-fold method was suitable for tea plantation frost damage occurrence forecasting.展开更多
The numerical simulation and slope stability prediction are the focus of slope disaster research.Recently,machine learning models are commonly used in the slope stability prediction.However,these machine learning mode...The numerical simulation and slope stability prediction are the focus of slope disaster research.Recently,machine learning models are commonly used in the slope stability prediction.However,these machine learning models have some problems,such as poor nonlinear performance,local optimum and incomplete factors feature extraction.These issues can affect the accuracy of slope stability prediction.Therefore,a deep learning algorithm called Long short-term memory(LSTM)has been innovatively proposed to predict slope stability.Taking the Ganzhou City in China as the study area,the landslide inventory and their characteristics of geotechnical parameters,slope height and slope angle are analyzed.Based on these characteristics,typical soil slopes are constructed using the Geo-Studio software.Five control factors affecting slope stability,including slope height,slope angle,internal friction angle,cohesion and volumetric weight,are selected to form different slope and construct model input variables.Then,the limit equilibrium method is used to calculate the stability coefficients of these typical soil slopes under different control factors.Each slope stability coefficient and its corresponding control factors is a slope sample.As a result,a total of 2160 training samples and 450 testing samples are constructed.These sample sets are imported into LSTM for modelling and compared with the support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF)and convo-lutional neural network(CNN).The results show that the LSTM overcomes the problem that the commonly used machine learning models have difficulty extracting global features.Furthermore,LSTM has a better prediction performance for slope stability compared to SVM,RF and CNN models.展开更多
The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine l...The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine learning(ML)models effectively deal with such challenges.This research paper comprehensively analyses recent advancements in crop yield prediction from January 2016 to March 2024.In addition,it analyses the effectiveness of various input parameters considered in crop yield prediction models.We conducted an in-depth search and gathered studies that employed crop modeling and AI-based methods to predict crop yield.The total number of articles reviewed for crop yield prediction using ML,meta-modeling(Crop models coupled with ML/DL),and DL-based prediction models and input parameter selection is 125.We conduct the research by setting up five objectives for this research and discussing them after analyzing the selected research papers.Each study is assessed based on the crop type,input parameters employed for prediction,the modeling techniques adopted,and the evaluation metrics used for estimatingmodel performance.We also discuss the ethical and social impacts of AI on agriculture.However,various approaches presented in the scientific literature have delivered impressive predictions,they are complicateddue to intricate,multifactorial influences oncropgrowthand theneed for accuratedata-driven models.Therefore,thorough research is required to deal with challenges in predicting agricultural output.展开更多
Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep lear...Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.展开更多
Predicting the transition-temperature shift(TTS)induced by neutron irradiation in reactor pressure-vessel(RPV)steels is important for the evaluation and extension of nuclear power-plant lifetimes.Current prediction mo...Predicting the transition-temperature shift(TTS)induced by neutron irradiation in reactor pressure-vessel(RPV)steels is important for the evaluation and extension of nuclear power-plant lifetimes.Current prediction models may fail to properly describe the embrittlement trend curves of Chinese domestic RPV steels with relatively low Cu content.Based on the screened surveillance data of Chinese domestic and similar international RPV steels,we have developed a new fluencedependent model for predicting the irradiation-embrittlement trend.The fast neutron fluence(E>1 MeV)exhibited the highest correlation coefficient with the measured TTS data;thus,it is a crucial parameter in the prediction model.The chemical composition has little relevance to the TTS residual calculated by the fluence-dependent model.The results show that the newly developed model with a simple power-law functional form of the neutron fluence is suitable for predicting the irradiation-embrittlement trend of Chinese domestic RPVs,regardless of the effect of the chemical composition.展开更多
The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers.Long short-term memory(LSTM)networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended inter...The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers.Long short-term memory(LSTM)networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended intervals and time delays in time series data.Additionally,the sequence-to-sequence(Seq2Seq)model,known for handling temporal relationships,adapting to variable-length sequences,effectively capturing historical information,and accommodating various influencing factors,emerges as a robust and flexible tool in discharge forecasting.In this study,we introduce the application of LSTM-based Seq2Seq models for the first time in forecasting the discharge of a tidal reach of the Changjiang River(Yangtze River)Estuary.This study focuses on discharge forecasting using three key input characteristics:flow velocity,water level,and discharge,which means the structure of multiple input and single output is adopted.The experiment used the discharge data of the whole year of 2020,of which the first 80%is used as the training set,and the last 20%is used as the test set.This means that the data covers different tidal cycles,which helps to test the forecasting effect of different models in different tidal cycles and different runoff.The experimental results indicate that the proposed models demonstrate advantages in long-term,mid-term,and short-term discharge forecasting.The Seq2Seq models improved by 6%-60%and 5%-20%of the relative standard deviation compared to the harmonic analysis models and improved back propagation neural network models in discharge prediction,respectively.In addition,the relative accuracy of the Seq2Seq model is 1%to 3%higher than that of the LSTM model.Analytical assessment of the prediction errors shows that the Seq2Seq models are insensitive to the forecast lead time and they can capture characteristic values such as maximum flood tide flow and maximum ebb tide flow in the tidal cycle well.This indicates the significance of the Seq2Seq models.展开更多
Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50...Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E) was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing (GED) methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal (1981-2010) mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades (2006-35) over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2) scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K (30 yr)-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn (mainly), faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.展开更多
The high-temperature performance of iron ore fmes is an important factor in optimizing ore blending in sintering. However, the application of linear regression analysis and the linear combination method in most other ...The high-temperature performance of iron ore fmes is an important factor in optimizing ore blending in sintering. However, the application of linear regression analysis and the linear combination method in most other studies always leads to a large deviation from the desired results. In this study, the fuzzy membership functions of the assimilation ability temperature and the liquid fluidity were proposed based on the fuzzy mathematics theory to construct a model for predicting the high-temperature performance of mixed iron ore. Comparisons of the prediction model and experimental results were presented. The results illustrate that the prediction model is more accurate and effective than previously developed models. In addition, fuzzy constraints for the high-temperature performance of iron ore in this research make the results of ore blending more comparable. A solution for the quantitative calculation as well as the programming of fuzzy constraints is also introduced.展开更多
In ladle furnace, the prediction of the liquid steel temperature is always a hot topic for the researchers. The most of the existing temperature prediction models use small sample set. Today, the precision of them can...In ladle furnace, the prediction of the liquid steel temperature is always a hot topic for the researchers. The most of the existing temperature prediction models use small sample set. Today, the precision of them can not satisfy practical production. Fortunately, the large sample set is accumulated from the practical production process. However, a large sample set makes it difficult to build a liquid steel temperature model. To deal with the issue, the random forest method is preferred in this paper, which is a powerful regression method with low complexity and can be designed very quickly. It is with the parallel ensemble structure,uses sample subsets,and employs a simple learning algorithm of sub-models. Then, the random forest method is applied to establish a temperature model by using the data sampled from the production process. The experiments show that the random forest temperature model is more precise than other temperature models.展开更多
There are plentiful potential hydrocarbon resources in the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan basins in the northern South China Sea. However, the special petrol-geological condition with high formation temperature and pressu...There are plentiful potential hydrocarbon resources in the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan basins in the northern South China Sea. However, the special petrol-geological condition with high formation temperature and pressure greatly blocked hydrocarbon exploration. The conventional means of drills, including methods in the prediction and monitoring of underground strata pressure, can no longer meet the requirements in this area. The China National Offshore Oil Corporation has allocated one well with a designed depth of 3200 m and pressure coefficient of 2.3 in the Yinggehai Basin (called test well in the paper) in order to find gas reservoirs in middle-deep section in the Miocene Huangliu and Meishan formations at the depth below 3000 m. Therefore, combined with the '863' national high-tech project, the authors analyzed the distribution of overpressure in the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan basins, and set up a series of key technologies and methods to predict and monitor formation pressure, and then apply the results to pressure prediction of the test well. Because of the exact pressure prediction before and during drilling, associated procedure design of casing and their allocation in test well has been ensured to be more rational. This well is successfully drilled to the depth of 3485 m (nearly 300 m deeper than the designed depth) under the formation pressure about 2.3 SG (EMW), which indicate that a new step in the technology of drilling in higher temperature and pressure has been reached in the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.展开更多
An improved case-based reasoning (CBR) method was proposed to predict the endpoint temperature of molten steel in Ruhrstahl Heraeus (RH) process. Firstly, production data were analyzed by multiple linear regressio...An improved case-based reasoning (CBR) method was proposed to predict the endpoint temperature of molten steel in Ruhrstahl Heraeus (RH) process. Firstly, production data were analyzed by multiple linear regressions and a pairwise comparison matrix in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was determined by this linear regression's coefficient. The weights of various influencing factors were obtained by AHP. Secondly, the dividable principles of case base including "0-1" and "breakpoint" were proposed, and the case base was divided into several homogeneous parts. Finally, the improved CBR was compared with ordinary CBR, which is based on the even weight and the single base. The results show that the improved CBR has a higher hit rate for predicting the endpoint temperature of molten steel in RH.展开更多
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2021YFC3101603.
文摘Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金funded by the Fujian Province Science and Technology Plan,China(Grant Number 2019H0017).
文摘Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.
文摘With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.
基金funded by Liaoning Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2023JH2/101600058)。
文摘With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.
文摘BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62203468in part by the Technological Research and Development Program of China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.under Grant Q2023X011+1 种基金in part by the Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by China Association for Science and Technology(CAST)under Grant 2022QNRC001in part by the Youth Talent Program Supported by China Railway Society,and in part by the Research Program of China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited under Grant 2023YJ112.
文摘Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance.
基金The authors wish to express their gratitude to the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51208262,51778300)Key Research and Development Project of Jiangsu Province(No.BE2020703)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20191390)Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province(JZ-017)Qinglan Project of Jiangsu Province for financially supporting this study.
文摘The destruction of recombinant bamboo depends on many factors,and the complex ambient temperature is an important factor affecting its basic mechanical properties.To investigate the failure mechanism and stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo at different temperatures,eighteen tensile specimens of recombinant bamboo were tested.The results showed that with increasing ambient temperature,the typical failure modes of recombinant bamboo were flush fracture,toothed failure,and serrated failure.The ultimate tensile strength,ultimate strain and elastic modulus of recombinant bamboo decreased with increasing temperature,and the ultimate tensile stress decreased from 154.07 to 96.55 MPa,a decrease of 37.33%,and the ultimate strain decreased from 0.011 to 0.008,a decrease of 26.57%.Based on the Ramberg-Osgood model and the pseudo‒elastic design method,a predictive model was established for the tensile stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo considering the temperature level.The model can accurately evaluate the tensile stress–strain relationship of recombinant bamboo under different temperature conditions.
基金Zhejiang Public Welfare Program of Applied Research(LGN19D010001)the National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFE0125300)+1 种基金Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.LGN19F030001Zhejiang Agricultural Cooperative and Extensive Project of Key Technology(2020XTTGCY04-02).
文摘As the source and main producing area of tea in the world, China has formed unique tea culture, and achievedremarkable economic benefits. However, frequent meteorological disasters, particularly low temperature frostdamage in late spring has seriously threatened the growth status of tea trees and caused quality and yield reduction of tea industry. Thus, timely and accurate early warning of frost damage occurrence in specific tea garden isvery important for tea plantation management and economic values. Aiming at the problems existing in currentmeteorological disaster forecasting methods, such as difficulty in obtaining massive meteorological data, largeamount of calculation for predicted models and incomplete information on frost damage occurrence, this paperproposed a two-fold algorithm for short-term and real-time prediction of temperature using field environmentaldata, and temperature trend results from a nearest local weather station for accurate frost damage occurrence leveldetermination, so as to achieve a specific tea garden frost damage occurrence prediction in a microclimate. Timeseries meteorological data collected from a small weather station was used for testing and parameterization of atwo-fold method, and another dataset acquired from Tea Experimental Base of Zhejiang University was furtherused to validate the capability of a two-fold model for frost damage forecasting. Results showed that comparedwith the results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple linear regression (MLR),the proposed two-fold method using a second order Furrier fitting model and a K-Nearest Neighbor model(K = 3) with three days historical temperature data exhibited excellent accuracy for frost damage occurrence prediction on consideration of both model accuracy and computation (98.46% forecasted duration of frost damage,and 95.38% for forecasted temperature at the onset time). For field test in a tea garden, the proposed methodaccurately predicted three times frost damage occurrences, including onset time, duration and occurrence level.These results suggested the newly-proposed two-fold method was suitable for tea plantation frost damage occurrence forecasting.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41807285)。
文摘The numerical simulation and slope stability prediction are the focus of slope disaster research.Recently,machine learning models are commonly used in the slope stability prediction.However,these machine learning models have some problems,such as poor nonlinear performance,local optimum and incomplete factors feature extraction.These issues can affect the accuracy of slope stability prediction.Therefore,a deep learning algorithm called Long short-term memory(LSTM)has been innovatively proposed to predict slope stability.Taking the Ganzhou City in China as the study area,the landslide inventory and their characteristics of geotechnical parameters,slope height and slope angle are analyzed.Based on these characteristics,typical soil slopes are constructed using the Geo-Studio software.Five control factors affecting slope stability,including slope height,slope angle,internal friction angle,cohesion and volumetric weight,are selected to form different slope and construct model input variables.Then,the limit equilibrium method is used to calculate the stability coefficients of these typical soil slopes under different control factors.Each slope stability coefficient and its corresponding control factors is a slope sample.As a result,a total of 2160 training samples and 450 testing samples are constructed.These sample sets are imported into LSTM for modelling and compared with the support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF)and convo-lutional neural network(CNN).The results show that the LSTM overcomes the problem that the commonly used machine learning models have difficulty extracting global features.Furthermore,LSTM has a better prediction performance for slope stability compared to SVM,RF and CNN models.
文摘The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine learning(ML)models effectively deal with such challenges.This research paper comprehensively analyses recent advancements in crop yield prediction from January 2016 to March 2024.In addition,it analyses the effectiveness of various input parameters considered in crop yield prediction models.We conducted an in-depth search and gathered studies that employed crop modeling and AI-based methods to predict crop yield.The total number of articles reviewed for crop yield prediction using ML,meta-modeling(Crop models coupled with ML/DL),and DL-based prediction models and input parameter selection is 125.We conduct the research by setting up five objectives for this research and discussing them after analyzing the selected research papers.Each study is assessed based on the crop type,input parameters employed for prediction,the modeling techniques adopted,and the evaluation metrics used for estimatingmodel performance.We also discuss the ethical and social impacts of AI on agriculture.However,various approaches presented in the scientific literature have delivered impressive predictions,they are complicateddue to intricate,multifactorial influences oncropgrowthand theneed for accuratedata-driven models.Therefore,thorough research is required to deal with challenges in predicting agricultural output.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province,China (Grant No.2022J05291)Xiamen Scientific Research Funding for Overseas Chinese Scholars.
文摘Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.
文摘Predicting the transition-temperature shift(TTS)induced by neutron irradiation in reactor pressure-vessel(RPV)steels is important for the evaluation and extension of nuclear power-plant lifetimes.Current prediction models may fail to properly describe the embrittlement trend curves of Chinese domestic RPV steels with relatively low Cu content.Based on the screened surveillance data of Chinese domestic and similar international RPV steels,we have developed a new fluencedependent model for predicting the irradiation-embrittlement trend.The fast neutron fluence(E>1 MeV)exhibited the highest correlation coefficient with the measured TTS data;thus,it is a crucial parameter in the prediction model.The chemical composition has little relevance to the TTS residual calculated by the fluence-dependent model.The results show that the newly developed model with a simple power-law functional form of the neutron fluence is suitable for predicting the irradiation-embrittlement trend of Chinese domestic RPVs,regardless of the effect of the chemical composition.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42266006 and 41806114the Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation under contract Nos 20232BAB204089 and 20202ACBL214019.
文摘The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers.Long short-term memory(LSTM)networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended intervals and time delays in time series data.Additionally,the sequence-to-sequence(Seq2Seq)model,known for handling temporal relationships,adapting to variable-length sequences,effectively capturing historical information,and accommodating various influencing factors,emerges as a robust and flexible tool in discharge forecasting.In this study,we introduce the application of LSTM-based Seq2Seq models for the first time in forecasting the discharge of a tidal reach of the Changjiang River(Yangtze River)Estuary.This study focuses on discharge forecasting using three key input characteristics:flow velocity,water level,and discharge,which means the structure of multiple input and single output is adopted.The experiment used the discharge data of the whole year of 2020,of which the first 80%is used as the training set,and the last 20%is used as the test set.This means that the data covers different tidal cycles,which helps to test the forecasting effect of different models in different tidal cycles and different runoff.The experimental results indicate that the proposed models demonstrate advantages in long-term,mid-term,and short-term discharge forecasting.The Seq2Seq models improved by 6%-60%and 5%-20%of the relative standard deviation compared to the harmonic analysis models and improved back propagation neural network models in discharge prediction,respectively.In addition,the relative accuracy of the Seq2Seq model is 1%to 3%higher than that of the LSTM model.Analytical assessment of the prediction errors shows that the Seq2Seq models are insensitive to the forecast lead time and they can capture characteristic values such as maximum flood tide flow and maximum ebb tide flow in the tidal cycle well.This indicates the significance of the Seq2Seq models.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955204)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)the Research open-fund of Jiangsu Meteorology Bureau (Grant Nos. Q201205, KM201107, and K201009)
文摘Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E) was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing (GED) methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal (1981-2010) mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades (2006-35) over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2) scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K (30 yr)-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn (mainly), faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51204013)the National Key Technology R&D Program in the 12th Five Year Plan of China (No. 2011BAC01B02)
文摘The high-temperature performance of iron ore fmes is an important factor in optimizing ore blending in sintering. However, the application of linear regression analysis and the linear combination method in most other studies always leads to a large deviation from the desired results. In this study, the fuzzy membership functions of the assimilation ability temperature and the liquid fluidity were proposed based on the fuzzy mathematics theory to construct a model for predicting the high-temperature performance of mixed iron ore. Comparisons of the prediction model and experimental results were presented. The results illustrate that the prediction model is more accurate and effective than previously developed models. In addition, fuzzy constraints for the high-temperature performance of iron ore in this research make the results of ore blending more comparable. A solution for the quantitative calculation as well as the programming of fuzzy constraints is also introduced.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61702070)
文摘In ladle furnace, the prediction of the liquid steel temperature is always a hot topic for the researchers. The most of the existing temperature prediction models use small sample set. Today, the precision of them can not satisfy practical production. Fortunately, the large sample set is accumulated from the practical production process. However, a large sample set makes it difficult to build a liquid steel temperature model. To deal with the issue, the random forest method is preferred in this paper, which is a powerful regression method with low complexity and can be designed very quickly. It is with the parallel ensemble structure,uses sample subsets,and employs a simple learning algorithm of sub-models. Then, the random forest method is applied to establish a temperature model by using the data sampled from the production process. The experiments show that the random forest temperature model is more precise than other temperature models.
文摘There are plentiful potential hydrocarbon resources in the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan basins in the northern South China Sea. However, the special petrol-geological condition with high formation temperature and pressure greatly blocked hydrocarbon exploration. The conventional means of drills, including methods in the prediction and monitoring of underground strata pressure, can no longer meet the requirements in this area. The China National Offshore Oil Corporation has allocated one well with a designed depth of 3200 m and pressure coefficient of 2.3 in the Yinggehai Basin (called test well in the paper) in order to find gas reservoirs in middle-deep section in the Miocene Huangliu and Meishan formations at the depth below 3000 m. Therefore, combined with the '863' national high-tech project, the authors analyzed the distribution of overpressure in the Yinggehai and Qiongdongnan basins, and set up a series of key technologies and methods to predict and monitor formation pressure, and then apply the results to pressure prediction of the test well. Because of the exact pressure prediction before and during drilling, associated procedure design of casing and their allocation in test well has been ensured to be more rational. This well is successfully drilled to the depth of 3485 m (nearly 300 m deeper than the designed depth) under the formation pressure about 2.3 SG (EMW), which indicate that a new step in the technology of drilling in higher temperature and pressure has been reached in the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
基金financially supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program in the 11th Five-Years Plan of China (No.2006BAE03A07)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.FRF-TP12-086A)
文摘An improved case-based reasoning (CBR) method was proposed to predict the endpoint temperature of molten steel in Ruhrstahl Heraeus (RH) process. Firstly, production data were analyzed by multiple linear regressions and a pairwise comparison matrix in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was determined by this linear regression's coefficient. The weights of various influencing factors were obtained by AHP. Secondly, the dividable principles of case base including "0-1" and "breakpoint" were proposed, and the case base was divided into several homogeneous parts. Finally, the improved CBR was compared with ordinary CBR, which is based on the even weight and the single base. The results show that the improved CBR has a higher hit rate for predicting the endpoint temperature of molten steel in RH.