An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Traffic prediction enabled dynamic access points switching for energy saving in dense networks

To meet the ever-increasing traffic demand and enhance the coverage of cellular networks,network densification is one of the crucial paradigms of 5G and beyond mobile networks,which can improve system capacity by deploying a large number of Access Points(APs)in the service area.However,since the energy consumption of APs generally accounts for a substantial part of the communication system,how to deal with the consequent energy issue is a challenging task for a mobile network with densely deployed APs.In this paper,we propose an intelligent AP switching on/off scheme to reduce the system energy consumption with the prerequisite of guaranteeing the quality of service,where the signaling overhead is also taken into consideration to ensure the stability of the network.First,based on historical traffic data,a long short-term memory method is introduced to predict the future traffic distribution,by which we can roughly determine when the AP switching operation should be triggered;second,we present an efficient three-step AP selection strategy to determine which of the APs would be switched on or off;third,an AP switching scheme with a threshold is proposed to adjust the switching frequency so as to improve the stability of the system.Experiment results indicate that our proposed traffic forecasting method performs well in practical scenarios,where the normalized root mean square error is within 10%.Furthermore,the achieved energy-saving is more than 28% on average with a reasonable outage probability and switching frequency for an area served by 40 APs in a commercial mobile network.

A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

Traffic flow prediction based on BILSTM model and data denoising scheme

Accurate prediction of road traffic flow is a significant part in the intelligent transportation systems.Accurate prediction can alleviate traffic congestion,and reduce environmental pollution.For the management department,it can make effective use of road resources.For individuals,it can help people plan their own travel paths,avoid congestion,and save time.Owing to complex factors on the road,such as damage to the detector and disturbances from environment,the measured traffic volume can contain noise.Reducing the influence of noise on traffic flow prediction is a piece of very important work.Therefore,in this paper we propose a combination algorithm of denoising and BILSTM to effectively improve the performance of traffic flow prediction.At the same time,three denoising algorithms are compared to find the best combination mode.In this paper,the wavelet(WL) denoising scheme,the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) denoising scheme,and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) denoising scheme are all introduced to suppress outliers in traffic flow data.In addition,we combine the denoising schemes with bidirectional long short-term memory(BILSTM)network to predict the traffic flow.The data in this paper are cited from performance measurement system(PeMS).We choose three kinds of road data(mainline,off ramp,on ramp) to predict traffic flow.The results for mainline show that data denoising can improve prediction accuracy.Moreover,prediction accuracy of BILSTM+EEMD scheme is the highest in the three methods(BILSTM+WL,BILSTM+EMD,BILSTM+EEMD).The results for off ramp and on ramp show the same performance as the results for mainline.It is indicated that this model is suitable for different road sections and long-term prediction.

Short-time prediction for traffic flow based on wavelet de-noising and LSTM model

Aiming at the problem that some existing traffic flow prediction models are only for a single road segment and the model input data are not pre-processed,a heuristic threshold algorithm is used to de-noise the original traffic flow data after wavelet decomposition.The correlation coefficients of road traffic flow data are calculated and the data compression matrix of road traffic flow is constructed.Data de-noising minimizes the interference of data to the model,while the correlation analysis of road network data realizes the prediction at the road network level.Utilizing the advantages of long short term memory(LSTM)network in time series data processing,the compression matrix is input into the constructed LSTM model for short-term traffic flow prediction.The LSTM-1 and LSTM-2 models were respectively trained by de-noising processed data and original data.Through simulation experiments,different prediction times were set,and the prediction results of the prediction model proposed in this paper were compared with those of other methods.It is found that the accuracy of the LSTM-2 model proposed in this paper increases by 10.278%on average compared with other prediction methods,and the prediction accuracy reaches 95.58%,which proves that the short-term traffic flow prediction method proposed in this paper is efficient.

Novel Real-Time System for Traffic Flow Classification and Prediction

Traffic flow prediction has been applied into many wireless communication applications(e.g., smart city, Internet of Things). With the development of wireless communication technologies and artificial intelligence, how to design a system for real-time traffic flow prediction and receive high accuracy of prediction are urgent problems for both researchers and equipment suppliers. This paper presents a novel real-time system for traffic flow prediction. Different from the single algorithm for traffic flow prediction, our novel system firstly utilizes dynamic time wrapping to judge whether traffic flow data has regularity,realizing traffic flow data classification. After traffic flow data classification, we respectively make use of XGBoost and wavelet transform-echo state network to predict traffic flow data according to their regularity. Moreover, in order to realize real-time classification and prediction, we apply Spark/Hadoop computing platform to process large amounts of traffic data. Numerical results show that the proposed novel system has better performance and higher accuracy than other schemes.

Network Traffic Prediction Using Radial Kernelized-Tversky Indexes-Based Multilayer Classifier

Accurate cellular network traffic prediction is a crucial task to access Internet services for various devices at any time.With the use of mobile devices,communication services generate numerous data for every moment.Given the increasing dense population of data,traffic learning and prediction are the main components to substantially enhance the effectiveness of demand-aware resource allocation.A novel deep learning technique called radial kernelized LSTM-based connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning(RKLSTM-CTMDSL)model is introduced for traffic prediction with superior accuracy and minimal time consumption.The RKLSTM-CTMDSL model performs attribute selection and classification processes for cellular traffic prediction.In this model,the connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning includes multiple layers for traffic prediction.A large volume of spatial-temporal data are considered as an input-to-input layer.Thereafter,input data are transmitted to hidden layer 1,where a radial kernelized long short-term memory architecture is designed for the relevant attribute selection using activation function results.After obtaining the relevant attributes,the selected attributes are given to the next layer.Tversky index function is used in this layer to compute similarities among the training and testing traffic patterns.Tversky similarity index outcomes are given to the output layer.Similarity value is used as basis to classify data as heavy network or normal traffic.Thus,cellular network traffic prediction is presented with minimal error rate using the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model.Comparative evaluation proved that the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model outperforms conventional methods.

Proactive traffic responsive control based on state-space neural network and extended Kalman filter

The state-space neural network and extended Kalman filter model is used to directly predict the optimal timing plan that corresponds to futuristic traffic conditions in real time with the purposes of avoiding the lagging of the signal timing plans to traffic conditions. Utilizing the traffic conditions in current and former intervals, the network topology of the state-space neural network （SSNN）, which is derived from the geometry of urban arterial routes, is used to predict the optimal timing plan corresponding to the traffic conditions in the next time interval. In order to improve the effectiveness of the SSNN, the extended Kalman filter （EKF） is proposed to train the SSNN instead of conventional approaches. Raw traffic data of the Guangzhou Road, Nanjing and the optimal signal timing plan generated by a multi-objective optimization genetic algorithm are applied to test the performance of the proposed model. The results indicate that compared with the SSNN and the BP neural network, the proposed model can closely match the optimal timing plans in futuristic states with higher efficiency.

Travel time prediction model of freeway based on gradient boosting decision tree

To investigate the travel time prediction method of the freeway, a model based on the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) is proposed. Eleven variables (namely, travel time in current period T i , traffic flow in current period Q i , speed in current period V i , density in current period K i , the number of vehicles in current period N i , occupancy in current period R i , traffic state parameter in current period X i , travel time in previous time period T i -1 , etc.) are selected to predict the travel time for 10 min ahead in the proposed model. Data obtained from VISSIM simulation is used to train and test the model. The results demonstrate that the prediction error of the GBDT model is smaller than those of the back propagation (BP) neural network model and the support vector machine (SVM) model. Travel time in current period T i is the most important variable among all variables in the GBDT model. The GBDT model can produce more accurate prediction results and mine the hidden nonlinear relationships deeply between variables and the predicted travel time.

改进ESNs在通信话务量预测上的应用研究

现有回声状态网络(Echo State Networks,ESNs)的通信话务量预测方法只考虑了历史通信话务量对预测性能的影响,较少涉及多个输入变量的通信话务量预测问题。文中首先针对ESNs用于实际多元时间序列预测任务时训练效率低,输入数据维数较多时计算复杂度大的问题,提出用改进的交替方向乘子算法(IAD-ESNs算法)训练ESNs;针对单一输入变量不能提供更加全面的预测信息,提出了改进ESNs的多变量预测模型(MP-IADMM-ESNs)。以真实通信话务量数据进行仿真实验,结果表明,提出的预测模型MP-IADMM-ESNs对多变量通信话务量预测有较高的预测精度和预测效率。

A Light Weight Traffic Volume Prediction Approach Based on Finite Traffic Volume Data

As one of the key technologies of intelligent transportation systems, short-term traffic volume prediction plays an increasingly important role in solving urban traffic problems. In the last decade, many approaches were proposed for the traffic volume prediction from different perspectives. However, most of these approaches are based on a large amount of historical data. When there are only finite collected traffic data, they cannot be well trained, so the prediction accuracy of these approaches will be poor. In this paper, a tensor model is proposed to capture the change patterns of continuous traffic volumes. From collected traffic volume data, the element data are extracted to update the corresponding elements of the tensor model. Then, a tucker decomposition and gradient descent based algorithm is employed to impute the missing elements of the tensor model. After missing element imputation, the tensor model can be directly applied to the short-term traffic volume prediction through searching the corresponding elements of the model and the storage cost of the model is low. Our model is evaluated on real traffic volume data from PeMS dataset, which indicates that our model has higher traffic volume prediction accuracy than other approaches in the situation of finite traffic volume data.

基于Echo State Neural Networks的短期交通流预测算法

在城市交通环境,交通流的正确预测是比较困难,因为多个十字路口,这使得预置的交通控制模型之间的相互作用和intertwinement不能保持始终高性能在所有的交通情况。

基于多维数据的高速公路交通预测算法

目前高速公路交通流的算法较多,但很多算法要基于车辆的GPS信息,或者单一的卡口信息,结果往往滞后或者不准确,我们基于浙江省高速公路温州段上的传感器(卡口与雷达)数据进行梳理,形成一套数据相互补充、相互验证的交通流短时预测算法,提高了交通状态预测,已用于实战。本文首先确定了数据的来源与格式,其次介绍了数据之间的相互补全,最后从短时交通状态演化特性的剖析到深度学习的交通状态预测,最终得到了温州高速路网的交通状态预测结果。

Real-time road traffic state prediction based on ARIMA and Kalman filter

The realization of road traffic prediction not only provides real-time and effective information for travelers, but also helps them select the optimal route to reduce travel time. Road traffic prediction offers traffic guidance for travelers and relieves traffic jams. In this paper, a real-time road traffic state prediction based on autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） and the Kalman filter is proposed. First, an ARIMA model of road traffic data in a time series is built on the basis of historical road traffic data. Second, this ARIMA model is combined with the Kalman filter to construct a road traffic state prediction algorithm, which can acquire the state, measurement, and updating equations of the Kalman filter. Third, the optimal parameters of the algorithm are discussed on the basis of historical road traffic data. Finally, four road segments in Beijing are adopted for case studies. Experimental results show that the real-time road traffic state prediction based on ARIMA and the Kalman filter is feasible and can achieve high accuracy.

DeepTSP:Deep traffic state prediction model based on large-scale empirical data

Real-time traffic state(e.g.,speed)prediction is an essential component for traffic control and management in an urban road network.How to build an effective large-scale traffic state prediction system is a challenging but highly valuable problem.This study focuses on the construction of an effective solution designed for spatiotemporal data to predict the traffic state of large-scale traffic systems.In this study,we first summarize the three challenges faced by large-scale traffic state prediction,i.e.,scale,granularity,and sparsity.Based on the domain knowledge of traffic engineering,the propagation of traffic states along the road network is theoretically analyzed,which are elaborated in aspects of the temporal and spatial propagation of traffic state,traffic state experience replay,and multi-source data fusion.A deep learning architecture,termed as Deep Traffic State Prediction(DeepTSP),is therefore proposed to address the current challenges in traffic state prediction.Experiments demonstrate that the proposed DeepTSP model can effectively predict large-scale traffic states.

An Innovative Approach for the Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation applications,such as traffic control,navigation,path planning,etc.,which are closely related to people's daily life.In the last twenty years,many traffic flow prediction approaches have been proposed.However,some of these approaches use the regression based mechanisms,which cannot achieve accurate short-term traffic flow predication.While,other approaches use the neural network based mechanisms,which cannot work well with limited amount of training data.To this end,a light weight tensor-based traffic flow prediction approach is proposed,which can achieve efficient and accurate short-term traffic flow prediction with continuous traffic flow data in a limited period of time.In the proposed approach,first,a tensor-based traffic flow model is proposed to establish the multi-dimensional relationships for traffic flow values in continuous time intervals.Then,a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition based algorithm is employed to complete the missing values in the constructed tensor.Finally,the completed tensor can be directly used to achieve efficient and accurate traffic flow prediction.The experiments on the real dataset indicate that the proposed approach outperforms many current approaches on traffic flow prediction with limited amount of traffic flow data.

融合FCM-RBF的短时交通拥堵状态预测模型

针对高速公路常发性拥堵路段,提出一种融合模糊C均值聚类算法和径向基函数神经网络的短时交通拥堵状态预测模型。模型基于FCM聚类算法获取历史交通流的拥堵状态标签以及不同交通状态的聚类中心;基于RBF神经网络算法实现短时交通流参数预测。将RBF神经网络预测得到的短时交通流参数代入FCM聚类结果中,得到短时交通拥堵状态标签。通过交通流参数与交通状态的隐含关系,搭建出融合模型的基本计算架构。结果表明:FCM聚类算法训练后的分类结果更加稳定有效;RBF神经网络比对照方法具有更高的预测精度,预测相对误差基本低于1.2%;建立的FCM-RBF模型对短时交通拥堵状态预测的分类正确率达到95%,预测结果准确可靠。

MCA-TFP Model:A Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Multi-characteristic Analysis

With the urbanization,urban transportation has become a key factor restricting the development of a city.In a big city,it is important to improve the efficiency of urban transportation.The key to realize short-term traffic flow prediction is to learn its complex spatial correlation,temporal correlation and randomness of traffic flow.In this paper,the convolution neural network(CNN)is proposed to deal with spatial correlation among different regions,considering that the large urban areas leads to a relatively deep Network layer.First three gated recurrent unit(GRU)were used to deal with recent time dependence,daily period dependence and weekly period dependence.Considering that each historical period data to forecast the influence degree of the time period is different,three attention mechanism was taken into GRU.Second,a twolayer full connection network was applied to deal with the randomness of short-term flow combined with additional information such as weather data.Besides,the prediction model was established by combining these three modules.Furthermore,in order to verify the influence of spatial correlation on prediction model,an urban functional area identification model was introduced to identify different functional regions.Finally,the proposed model was validated based on the history of New York City taxi order data and reptiles for weather data.The experimental results show that the prediction precision of our model is obviously superior to the mainstream of the existing prediction methods.

基于用户画像与Stackelberg博弈的交通环岛通行策略

现有的交通环岛通行优化研究多以无损通信为背景,结合车辆速度等基础数据设计协同策略,忽略了影响交通策略的外界环境等数据,无法满足实际应用的需要。为解决实际通信受限问题,根据智能网联汽车的车-路-环境协同特点,提出一种结合用户画像,基于车辆状态预测的环岛车辆协同换道策略。设计基于时空特征的车辆预测方法AP-LSTM,捕捉车辆关键时空特征以实现小样本轨迹预测,有效提高小样本车辆轨迹预测的准确性和实时性。同时,设计基于预测机制的车辆协同算法PMC,弥补车辆协同决策在实时通信受限的条件下所缺失的车辆状态信息,通过历史数据对车辆未来状态进行预测,在此基础上,结合Stackelberg博弈对交通环岛路口处的车辆进行协同控制。在SUMO平台上的实验结果表明,相比长短时记忆算法,所提AP-LSTM预测方法的均方根误差较低,相比SUMO算法,所提PMC协同算法的加速度标准差降低51.7%,且平均速度提高3.0%,有效提高交通环岛的通行效率和驾驶平稳性。

基于循环神经网络的SPMA协议信道状态智能检测改进算法

为实现对时敏目标的快速探测、定位和打击,战术瞄准网络技术(TTNT)对战术信息接入信道、交互传输的实时性、可靠性提出高要求。TTNT采用基于统计优先的多址接入(SPMA)协议,通过周期性计算统计平均的思想,估计当前信道状态,控制战术信息接入信道的时机。该思想仅适用于流量相对平稳的情况,在流量非平稳时会导致较大的信道状态检测误差。针对此问题,引入流量预测技术,提出基于循环神经网络的SPMA协议信道状态智能检测改进算法。利用循环神经网络的学习特点学习历史流量数据的隐含特征,构建流量预测器对瞬时时刻的流量脉冲到达数进行实时预测,从而准确获取当前信道状态。实验结果表明:所提算法对信道状态的检测结果更接近真实值,显著降低了信道忙闲状态的误判率。