This paper attempts to establish a method for analysing the relationship between the polar and equatorial climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic Oscillation （AO） is known to have no direct relationship with ...This paper attempts to establish a method for analysing the relationship between the polar and equatorial climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic Oscillation （AO） is known to have no direct relationship with the monsoon over the Maritime Continent （MC）. Thus, an index called the Siberian High（SH^Maritime Continent（MC） Index （SHMCI） is developed to represent the mean sea level pressure difference between the SH and the warm pool over the MC. This index indicates a strong link with the monsoon circulation. A positive （strong） value of the SHMCI is associated with strong meridional winds and intense and frequent cold surge events over the South China Sea. The correlation between the AO index and the SHMCI is -0.39, which is medium but statistically significant; however, it is not sufficiently conclusive to infer direct correlation. Nevertheless, the SHMCI can be used as a tool to relate the AO with the monsoon over the MC because of the influence demonstrated by the AO towards the SH. Further analysis on the convergence and divergence anomalies over the MC reveals an impact discernible only from the SHMCI. This implies that the SHMCI manifests clearly the relationship between the Arctic and equatorial climate.展开更多
During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) in November and December–January(DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and ci...During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) in November and December–January(DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and circulation anomalies.Further analyses indicate that the autumn Arctic sea ice is important for the phase reversal of the SH. There is a significantly positive(negative) correlation between the November(DJ) SH and the September sea ice area(SIA) anomalies. It is suggested that the reduction of autumn SIA induces anomalous upward surface turbulent heat flux(SHF), which can persist into November, especially over the Barents Sea. Consequently, the enhanced eddy energy and wave activity flux are transported to mid and high latitudes. This will then benefit the development of the storm track in northeastern Europe. Conversely, when downward SHF anomalies prevail in DJ, the decreased heat flux and suppressed eddy energy hinder the growth of the storm track during DJ over the Barents Sea and Europe. Through the eddy–mean flow interaction, the strengthened(weakened)storm track activities induce decreased(increased) Ural blockings and accelerated(decelerated) westerlies, which makes the cold air from the Arctic inhibited(transported) over the Siberian area. Therefore, a weaker(stronger) SH in November(DJ) occurs downstream. Moreover, anomalously large snowfall may intensify the SH in DJ rather than in November. The ensemble-mean results from the CMIP5 historical simulations further confirm these connections. The different responses to Arctic sea ice anomalies in early and middle winter set this study apart from earlier ones.展开更多
In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the ...In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the years from 1979 to 2003, the first principle component(PC1) of winter Arctic SAT remains stable, and no significant increasing trend is detected. However, the PC1 changes abruptly from negative to positive phase in the winter of 2004. The enhanced Siberian high may have contributed to this abrupt change because the temporal evolution of Arctic temperature correlates significantly with sea level pressure variation in the northern Eurasian continent, and the atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the Siberian high from 2004 to 2013 favors a warmer Arctic. With the help of the meridional wind anomaly around the Siberian high, warmer air is transported to the high latitudes and therefore increases the Arctic temperature.展开更多
The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(...The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climate models are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the temporal evolution of the SH in the 19th and 20th centuries and the spatial pattern of the SH during 1981–2005.The results show that 12models can capture the temporal evolution of the SH center intensity(SHCI)for 1872–2005.The linear correlation coefficient between the SHCI from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and the simulated SHCI from the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 12 models is 0.3 on annual and inter-annual scales(above the 99%confidence level).On decadal and multi-decadal time scales,the MME also captures the pronounced reduction(between 1981–2000and 1881–1900 period)and the recovery(during1991–2005)of the SH intensity.Finally,the future evolution of the SH is investigated using the MME of the 12models under the+4.5 and+8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).It is shown that the SHCI,similar to the SHCI in the 20th century,has no significant long-term trend in the 21st century under global warming(RCP8.5 scenario).At the end of 21st century(2081–2100),the SH shows stronger interannual variability than the SH at the end of20th century(1981–2000).The increased interannual variability likely favors the increased interannual variability in winter air temperature over midlatitude Eurasia at the end of 21st century.展开更多
The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian margina...The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.展开更多
基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(Souther...基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(SouthernSouthChinaSea,SSCS)。四个区域风能的年际变化受不同气候模态的影响,其中NCS风能的年际变化与北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)有关;ECS风能的年际变化与中部型ENSO及西伯利亚高压有关;SSCS和NSCS的年际变化则和东部型ENSO及大陆高压的南北位置存在联系。鉴于影响各区域风能年际变化的气候模态具有较高的可预测性,进一步评估了多个气候模式对中国沿海风能年际变化的预测技巧。结果表明,气候模式对南中国海的风能年际变化预测技巧更高,这与气候模式对ENSO的高预测技巧有关。气候模式对北方海域风能年际变化的预测技巧较差,这和气候模式不能较好地预测AO和西伯利亚高压有关。展开更多
The mineral dust emitted from Central Asia has a significant influence on the global climate system.However,the history and mechanisms of aeolian activity in Central Asia remain unclear,due to the lack of well-dated r...The mineral dust emitted from Central Asia has a significant influence on the global climate system.However,the history and mechanisms of aeolian activity in Central Asia remain unclear,due to the lack of well-dated records of aeolian activity and the intense wind erosion in some of the dust source areas(e.g.,deserts).Here,we present the records of aeolian activity from a sedimentary sequence in the southern Gurbantunggut Desert of China using grain size analysis and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating,based on field sampling in 2019.Specifically,we used eight OSL dates to construct chronological frameworks and applied the end-member(EM)analysis for the grain size data to extract the information of aeolian activity in the southern Gurbantunggut Desert during the last 900 a.The results show that the grain size dataset can be subdivided into three EMs(EM1,EM2,and EM3).The primary modal sizes of these EMs(EM1,EM2,and EM3)are 126.00,178.00,and 283.00μm,respectively.EM1 represents a mixture of the suspension components and saltation dust,while EM2 and EM3 show saltation dust transported over a shorter distance via strengthened near-surface winds,which can be used to trace aeolian activity.Combined with the OSL chronology,our results demonstrate that during the last 900 a,more intensive and frequent aeolian activity occurred during 450-100 a BP(Before Present)(i.e.,the Little Ice Age(LIA)),which was reflected by a higher proportion of the coarse-grained components(EM2+EM3).Aeolian activity decreased during 900-450 a BP(i.e.,the Medieval Warm Period(MWP))and 100 a BP-present(i.e.,the Current Warm Period(CWP)).Intensified aeolian activity was associated with the strengthening of the Siberian High and cooling events at high northern latitudes.We propose that the Siberian High,under the influence of temperature changes at high northern latitudes,controlled the frequency and intensity of aeolian activity in Central Asia.Cooling at high northern latitudes would have significantly enhanced the Siberian High,causing its position to shift southward.Subsequently,the incursion of cold air masses from high northern latitudes resulted in stronger wind regimes and increased dust emissions from the southern Gurbantunggut Desert.It is possible that aeolian activity may be weakened in Central Asia under future global warming scenarios,but the impact of human activities on this region must also be considered.展开更多
作为全球主要的粉尘源区之一,亚洲中部干旱区全新世环境变化备受关注,但目前仍缺乏连续的风成沉积记录。本文利用蒙古西北部Tolbo湖岩芯(TB19-A,332 cm)沉积物,在AMS 14 C定年和粒度分析基础上,采用对数正态分布函数拟合及粒级-标准偏...作为全球主要的粉尘源区之一,亚洲中部干旱区全新世环境变化备受关注,但目前仍缺乏连续的风成沉积记录。本文利用蒙古西北部Tolbo湖岩芯(TB19-A,332 cm)沉积物,在AMS 14 C定年和粒度分析基础上,采用对数正态分布函数拟合及粒级-标准偏差相结合的方法分离出沉积物中风成组分以重建区域风沙活动历史。结果显示,Tolbo湖沉积物中值粒径为15~84μm和大于84μm的组分分别是区域尘暴和局地风沙活动的良好指标。蒙古西北部地区末次冰消期晚期(13.7511.6 cal ka BP),Tolbo湖流域内有较强的局地风沙活动,可能与YD寒冷事件有关。全新世以来,流域内局地风沙活动与蒙古西北部区域尘暴活动的变化具有一致性,具体表现为:早中全新世风沙活动总体较弱,其中9.78.6 cal ka BP和76 cal ka BP为区域尘暴较强时段;5 cal ka BP之后局地风沙活动与区域尘暴强度显著增加,直至0.7 cal ka BP两者均维持在较高水平;0.3 cal ka BP以来区域尘暴活动再次增强。蒙古西北部与中国北方公海、博斯腾湖记录的尘暴历史具有一致的变化趋势,反映了与西伯利亚高压相联系的大气环流对于干旱区大范围风沙活动的影响。晚全新世风沙活动的增强可能还与冬季太阳辐射的增加有关,最近300年来强烈的区域尘暴活动除了自然因素外,可能还叠加了人类活动的影响。展开更多
基金funded by the University of Malaya Research Grant(Grant no.RG005/09SUS)
文摘This paper attempts to establish a method for analysing the relationship between the polar and equatorial climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic Oscillation （AO） is known to have no direct relationship with the monsoon over the Maritime Continent （MC）. Thus, an index called the Siberian High（SH^Maritime Continent（MC） Index （SHMCI） is developed to represent the mean sea level pressure difference between the SH and the warm pool over the MC. This index indicates a strong link with the monsoon circulation. A positive （strong） value of the SHMCI is associated with strong meridional winds and intense and frequent cold surge events over the South China Sea. The correlation between the AO index and the SHMCI is -0.39, which is medium but statistically significant; however, it is not sufficiently conclusive to infer direct correlation. Nevertheless, the SHMCI can be used as a tool to relate the AO with the monsoon over the MC because of the influence demonstrated by the AO towards the SH. Further analysis on the convergence and divergence anomalies over the MC reveals an impact discernible only from the SHMCI. This implies that the SHMCI manifests clearly the relationship between the Arctic and equatorial climate.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2016YFA0600703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41505073 and 41605059)+1 种基金the Research Council of Norway–supported project SNOWGLACE (Grant No.244166/E10)and the Young Talent Support Program of the China Association for Science and Technology (Grant No.2016QNRC001)
文摘During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) in November and December–January(DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and circulation anomalies.Further analyses indicate that the autumn Arctic sea ice is important for the phase reversal of the SH. There is a significantly positive(negative) correlation between the November(DJ) SH and the September sea ice area(SIA) anomalies. It is suggested that the reduction of autumn SIA induces anomalous upward surface turbulent heat flux(SHF), which can persist into November, especially over the Barents Sea. Consequently, the enhanced eddy energy and wave activity flux are transported to mid and high latitudes. This will then benefit the development of the storm track in northeastern Europe. Conversely, when downward SHF anomalies prevail in DJ, the decreased heat flux and suppressed eddy energy hinder the growth of the storm track during DJ over the Barents Sea and Europe. Through the eddy–mean flow interaction, the strengthened(weakened)storm track activities induce decreased(increased) Ural blockings and accelerated(decelerated) westerlies, which makes the cold air from the Arctic inhibited(transported) over the Siberian area. Therefore, a weaker(stronger) SH in November(DJ) occurs downstream. Moreover, anomalously large snowfall may intensify the SH in DJ rather than in November. The ensemble-mean results from the CMIP5 historical simulations further confirm these connections. The different responses to Arctic sea ice anomalies in early and middle winter set this study apart from earlier ones.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CBA01804 and 2015CB453200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41475080 and 41221064)State Oceanic Administration Project (201205007)
文摘In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the years from 1979 to 2003, the first principle component(PC1) of winter Arctic SAT remains stable, and no significant increasing trend is detected. However, the PC1 changes abruptly from negative to positive phase in the winter of 2004. The enhanced Siberian high may have contributed to this abrupt change because the temporal evolution of Arctic temperature correlates significantly with sea level pressure variation in the northern Eurasian continent, and the atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the Siberian high from 2004 to 2013 favors a warmer Arctic. With the help of the meridional wind anomaly around the Siberian high, warmer air is transported to the high latitudes and therefore increases the Arctic temperature.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41210007,41421004,and 41375083)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(Grant No.GYHY201306026)
文摘The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climate models are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the temporal evolution of the SH in the 19th and 20th centuries and the spatial pattern of the SH during 1981–2005.The results show that 12models can capture the temporal evolution of the SH center intensity(SHCI)for 1872–2005.The linear correlation coefficient between the SHCI from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and the simulated SHCI from the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 12 models is 0.3 on annual and inter-annual scales(above the 99%confidence level).On decadal and multi-decadal time scales,the MME also captures the pronounced reduction(between 1981–2000and 1881–1900 period)and the recovery(during1991–2005)of the SH intensity.Finally,the future evolution of the SH is investigated using the MME of the 12models under the+4.5 and+8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).It is shown that the SHCI,similar to the SHCI in the 20th century,has no significant long-term trend in the 21st century under global warming(RCP8.5 scenario).At the end of 21st century(2081–2100),the SH shows stronger interannual variability than the SH at the end of20th century(1981–2000).The increased interannual variability likely favors the increased interannual variability in winter air temperature over midlatitude Eurasia at the end of 21st century.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB411505)the Calling Project of China (GYHY200906017)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875052 and 40921003)the Basic Research Foundation of CAMS (2010Z003)
文摘The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.
文摘基于ERA5的逐小时100m风场数据,利用时间序列K-means聚类方法,将中国沿海冬季风能年际变化划分为四个区域,分别为北中国海(NorthChina Sea,NCS)、东海(East China Sea,ECS)、南海北部(Northern South China Sea,NSCS)及南海南部(SouthernSouthChinaSea,SSCS)。四个区域风能的年际变化受不同气候模态的影响,其中NCS风能的年际变化与北极涛动(ArcticOscillation,AO)有关;ECS风能的年际变化与中部型ENSO及西伯利亚高压有关;SSCS和NSCS的年际变化则和东部型ENSO及大陆高压的南北位置存在联系。鉴于影响各区域风能年际变化的气候模态具有较高的可预测性,进一步评估了多个气候模式对中国沿海风能年际变化的预测技巧。结果表明,气候模式对南中国海的风能年际变化预测技巧更高,这与气候模式对ENSO的高预测技巧有关。气候模式对北方海域风能年际变化的预测技巧较差,这和气候模式不能较好地预测AO和西伯利亚高压有关。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41991281]the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2018YFA0606403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41790472]。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42167063)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory for Digital Land and Resources of Jiangxi Province (DLLJ202113)+2 种基金the State Scientific Survey Project of China (2017FY101001)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (20202BABL213028)the Scientific Research Foundation of East China University of Technology (DHBK2019028)。
文摘The mineral dust emitted from Central Asia has a significant influence on the global climate system.However,the history and mechanisms of aeolian activity in Central Asia remain unclear,due to the lack of well-dated records of aeolian activity and the intense wind erosion in some of the dust source areas(e.g.,deserts).Here,we present the records of aeolian activity from a sedimentary sequence in the southern Gurbantunggut Desert of China using grain size analysis and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating,based on field sampling in 2019.Specifically,we used eight OSL dates to construct chronological frameworks and applied the end-member(EM)analysis for the grain size data to extract the information of aeolian activity in the southern Gurbantunggut Desert during the last 900 a.The results show that the grain size dataset can be subdivided into three EMs(EM1,EM2,and EM3).The primary modal sizes of these EMs(EM1,EM2,and EM3)are 126.00,178.00,and 283.00μm,respectively.EM1 represents a mixture of the suspension components and saltation dust,while EM2 and EM3 show saltation dust transported over a shorter distance via strengthened near-surface winds,which can be used to trace aeolian activity.Combined with the OSL chronology,our results demonstrate that during the last 900 a,more intensive and frequent aeolian activity occurred during 450-100 a BP(Before Present)(i.e.,the Little Ice Age(LIA)),which was reflected by a higher proportion of the coarse-grained components(EM2+EM3).Aeolian activity decreased during 900-450 a BP(i.e.,the Medieval Warm Period(MWP))and 100 a BP-present(i.e.,the Current Warm Period(CWP)).Intensified aeolian activity was associated with the strengthening of the Siberian High and cooling events at high northern latitudes.We propose that the Siberian High,under the influence of temperature changes at high northern latitudes,controlled the frequency and intensity of aeolian activity in Central Asia.Cooling at high northern latitudes would have significantly enhanced the Siberian High,causing its position to shift southward.Subsequently,the incursion of cold air masses from high northern latitudes resulted in stronger wind regimes and increased dust emissions from the southern Gurbantunggut Desert.It is possible that aeolian activity may be weakened in Central Asia under future global warming scenarios,but the impact of human activities on this region must also be considered.
文摘作为全球主要的粉尘源区之一,亚洲中部干旱区全新世环境变化备受关注,但目前仍缺乏连续的风成沉积记录。本文利用蒙古西北部Tolbo湖岩芯(TB19-A,332 cm)沉积物,在AMS 14 C定年和粒度分析基础上,采用对数正态分布函数拟合及粒级-标准偏差相结合的方法分离出沉积物中风成组分以重建区域风沙活动历史。结果显示,Tolbo湖沉积物中值粒径为15~84μm和大于84μm的组分分别是区域尘暴和局地风沙活动的良好指标。蒙古西北部地区末次冰消期晚期(13.7511.6 cal ka BP),Tolbo湖流域内有较强的局地风沙活动,可能与YD寒冷事件有关。全新世以来,流域内局地风沙活动与蒙古西北部区域尘暴活动的变化具有一致性,具体表现为:早中全新世风沙活动总体较弱,其中9.78.6 cal ka BP和76 cal ka BP为区域尘暴较强时段;5 cal ka BP之后局地风沙活动与区域尘暴强度显著增加,直至0.7 cal ka BP两者均维持在较高水平;0.3 cal ka BP以来区域尘暴活动再次增强。蒙古西北部与中国北方公海、博斯腾湖记录的尘暴历史具有一致的变化趋势,反映了与西伯利亚高压相联系的大气环流对于干旱区大范围风沙活动的影响。晚全新世风沙活动的增强可能还与冬季太阳辐射的增加有关,最近300年来强烈的区域尘暴活动除了自然因素外,可能还叠加了人类活动的影响。
