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Numerical Investigation of Malaria Disease Dynamics in Fuzzy Environment
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作者 Fazal Dayan Dumitru Baleanu +4 位作者 Nauman Ahmed Jan Awrejcewicz Muhammad Rafiq Ali Raza Muhammad Ozair Ahmad 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2023年第2期2345-2361,共17页
The application of fuzzy theory is vital in all scientific disciplines.The construction of mathematical models with fuzziness is little studied in the literature.With this in mind and for a better understanding of the... The application of fuzzy theory is vital in all scientific disciplines.The construction of mathematical models with fuzziness is little studied in the literature.With this in mind and for a better understanding of the disease,an SEIR model of malaria transmission with fuzziness is examined in this study by extending a classicalmodel ofmalaria transmission.The parametersβandδ,being function of the malaria virus load,are considered fuzzy numbers.Three steady states and the reproduction number of the model are analyzed in fuzzy senses.A numerical technique is developed in a fuzzy environment to solve the studied model,which retains essential properties such as positivity and dynamic consistency.Moreover,numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the analytical results of the developed technique.Unlike most of the classical methods in the literature,the proposed approach converges unconditionally and can be considered a reliable tool for studying malaria disease dynamics. 展开更多
关键词 SIER model fuzzy parameters MALARIA NSFD scheme STABILITY
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基于机器学习和动力学模型的湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析 被引量:10
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作者 余锦芬 宋玉凯 +2 位作者 费菲 孙卫强 宋祖峰 《生物医学工程研究》 2020年第3期294-299,305,共7页
基于武昌方舱医院的一线数据和其他官方数据,我们首先利用机器学习对疫情规模进行预测,之后利用回溯传播模型和抽样检测模型对疫情规模进行估计,最后从宏观角度上用SIR和SIER模型结合MATLAB软件编程对疫情进行分析,采用元胞自动机模型... 基于武昌方舱医院的一线数据和其他官方数据,我们首先利用机器学习对疫情规模进行预测,之后利用回溯传播模型和抽样检测模型对疫情规模进行估计,最后从宏观角度上用SIR和SIER模型结合MATLAB软件编程对疫情进行分析,采用元胞自动机模型在微观角度上的分析,从两个角度证明了中国政府强有力的防控措施的必要性。 展开更多
关键词 机器学习 SIR模型 SIER模型 元胞自动机模型 新型冠状病毒肺炎
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医疗卫生资源、新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡率与资源优化配置 被引量:4
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作者 谢琳 杨华磊 吴远洋 《经济与管理研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第8期14-28,共15页
新冠肺炎疫情发生后,湖北省一直是疫情的重灾区与抗疫的焦点地区,患者死亡率远远高于全国平均水平。本文构建纳入医疗资源条件的新冠肺炎传播的SIER模型进行机制分析和模拟研究,发现改善卫生资源条件会降低疫情的死亡率。针对湖北省疫... 新冠肺炎疫情发生后,湖北省一直是疫情的重灾区与抗疫的焦点地区,患者死亡率远远高于全国平均水平。本文构建纳入医疗资源条件的新冠肺炎传播的SIER模型进行机制分析和模拟研究,发现改善卫生资源条件会降低疫情的死亡率。针对湖北省疫情数据,使用最小二乘方法进行实证研究后发现,无论是增加医院或者卫生系统内的床位数,还是增加医护人员数,均可显著地降低疫情死亡率。进一步通过时变效应和断点回归模型考察重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应政策效应和外援医疗团队效应,实证结果也佐证了上述推断。结合研究结论和湖北省防疫经验,本文提出先整合医院内部医疗资源,打破医院内部各科室之间分割,再整合地区内医疗卫生系统的资源,同时实施医疗系统外部资源三管齐下的医疗资源配置建议措施,以期为国内外疫情防控贡献中国智慧。 展开更多
关键词 湖北 新型冠状病毒肺炎 死亡率 SIER模型 医疗资源
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SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Scenarios,Disease Predictions and Estimates the Basic Reproduction Number,Case Fatality Rate,Hospital,and ICU Beds Requirement 被引量:1
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作者 Avaneesh Singh Manish Kumar Bajpai 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2020年第12期991-1031,共41页
We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartmen... We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS SIER model SEIHCRD model parameter estimation mathematical model India Brazil United Kingdom United States Spain Italy hospital beds ICU beds basic reproduction number case fatality rate
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