Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate（1q0） from China＇s sixth census. Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the aver...Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate（1q0） from China＇s sixth census. Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the average relative errors（AREs） for 1q0 between the estimated and reported values using the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Results For the sixth census, the AREs are more than 100% for almost all provinces. The estimated average 1q0 level for 31 provinces is 12.3‰ for males and 10.7‰ for females. Conclusion The data for the provincial 1q0 from China＇s sixth census have a serious data quality problem. The actual levels of 1q0 for each province are significantly higher than the reported values.展开更多
Changes in the Chinese family structure since 2000 are evident in a significant decrease in the share of nuclear families; a considerable increase in the share of single- person families; and a rise rather than a fall...Changes in the Chinese family structure since 2000 are evident in a significant decrease in the share of nuclear families; a considerable increase in the share of single- person families; and a rise rather than a fall in the share of linear families. Changes in urban family structure differ from those in rural areas. In the former, the share of nuclear families has fallen, with a marked rise in single-person families and a slight fall in linear families. In the latter, there has been quite a large fall in the share of nuclear families and an increase in the share of single-person and linear families. Changes in the secondary family structure also show some differences. Population mobility, number of children, population aging, and marriage and housing conditions have a marked effect on the evolution of family structure. In an era when small families are dominant, the government and various social organizations should enhance public services for families; review the household registration system to lessen the regional separation of workers from other family members; and create conditions for improving intergenerational relations.展开更多
基金supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation of China:A Study on the Mortality Pattern of Chinese Population and Related Statistical Models(81273179)China’s sixth census excluds the data of Hong Kong SAR,Macao SAR,and Taiwan
文摘Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate（1q0） from China＇s sixth census. Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the average relative errors（AREs） for 1q0 between the estimated and reported values using the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Results For the sixth census, the AREs are more than 100% for almost all provinces. The estimated average 1q0 level for 31 provinces is 12.3‰ for males and 10.7‰ for females. Conclusion The data for the provincial 1q0 from China＇s sixth census have a serious data quality problem. The actual levels of 1q0 for each province are significantly higher than the reported values.
文摘Changes in the Chinese family structure since 2000 are evident in a significant decrease in the share of nuclear families; a considerable increase in the share of single- person families; and a rise rather than a fall in the share of linear families. Changes in urban family structure differ from those in rural areas. In the former, the share of nuclear families has fallen, with a marked rise in single-person families and a slight fall in linear families. In the latter, there has been quite a large fall in the share of nuclear families and an increase in the share of single-person and linear families. Changes in the secondary family structure also show some differences. Population mobility, number of children, population aging, and marriage and housing conditions have a marked effect on the evolution of family structure. In an era when small families are dominant, the government and various social organizations should enhance public services for families; review the household registration system to lessen the regional separation of workers from other family members; and create conditions for improving intergenerational relations.
