Short-term displacement prediction for newly established monitoring slopes based on transfer learning

This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore proposed.Initially,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these slopes.Subsequently,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring slopes.The three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation peaks.The fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive accuracy.In conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.

Slope stability hazard management systems

Weather-related geo-hazards are a major concern for both natural slopes and man-made slopes and embankments. Government agencies and private companies are increasingly required to ensure that there is adequate protection of sloping sur- faces in order that interaction with the climate does not produce instability. Superior theoretical formulations and computer tools are now available to address engineering design issues related to the near ground surface soil-atmospheric interactions. An ex- ample is given in this paper that illustrates the consequences of not paying adequate attention to the hazards of slope stability prior to the construction of a highway in South America. On the other hand, examples are given from Hong Kong and China's Mainland where significant benefits are derived from putting in place a hazard slope stability management system. Some results from a hazard management slope stability study related to the railway system in Canada are also reported. The study took advantage of recent research on unsaturated soil behaviour and applied this information to real-time modelling of climatic conditions. The quantification of the water balance at the ground surface, and subsequent infiltration, is used as the primary tool for hazard level assessment. The suggested hazard model can be applied at either specific high risk locations or in a more general, broad-based manner over large areas. A more thorough understanding of unsaturated soil behaviour as it applies to near ground surface soils, along with the numerical computational power of the computer has made it possible for new approaches to be used in slope hazard management engineering.

GIS COMPONENT BASED 3D LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT SYSTEM: 3DSLOPEGIS

In this paper, based on a new Geographic Information System (GIS) grid-based three-dimensional (3D) deterministic model and taken the slope unit as the study object, the landslide hazard is mapped by the index of the 3D safety factor. Compared with the one-dimensional (1D) model of infinite slope, which is now widely used for deterministic model based landslide hazard assessment in GIS, the GIS grid-based 3D model is more acceptable and is more adaptable for three-dimensional landslide. Assuming the initial slip as the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface in the 3D slope stability analysis is obtained by means of a minimization of the 3D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation. Using a hydraulic model tool for the watershed analysis in GIS, an automatic process has been developed for identifying the slope unit from digital elevation model (DEM) data. Compared with the grid-based landslide hazard mapping method, the slope unit possesses clear topographical meaning, so its results are more credible. All the calculations are implemented by a computational program, 3DSlopeGIS, in which a GIS component is used for fulfilling the GIS spatial analysis function, and all the data for the 3D slope safety factor calculation are in the form of GIS data (the vector and the grid layers). Because of all these merits of the GIS-based 3D landslide hazard mapping method, the complex algorithms and iteration procedures of the 3D problem can also be perfectly implemented.

Quantitative hazard assessment system(Has-Q) for open pit mine slopes

Rock slope hazard assessment is an important part of risk analysis for open pit mines.The main parameters that can lead to rock slope failures are the parameters traditionally used in geomechanical classifications,the slope geometrical parameters and external factors like rainfall and blasting.This paper presents a methodology for a hazard assessment system for open pit mine slopes based on 88 cases collated around the world using principal components analysis,discriminant analysis and confidence ellipses.The historical cases used in this study included copper,gold,iron,diamond,lead and zinc,platinum and claystone mines.The variables used in the assessment methodology are uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock;spacing,persistence,opening,roughness,infilling and orientation of the main discontinuity set;weathering of the rock mass;groundwater;blasting method;and height and inclination of the pit.While principal component analysis was used to quantify the data,the discriminant analysis was used to establish a rule to classify new slopes about its stability condition.To provide a practical hazard assessment system,confidence ellipses were used to propose a hazard graph and generate the HAS-Q.The discriminant rule developed in this research has a high discrimination capacity with an error rate of 11.36%.

Morphometric analysis of the Andaman outer shelf and upper slope——Implications for the recent slope failure events

The devastating 2004 tsunamis that hit the southwestern coast of Thailand pose a serious threat to people along the coastal zone. A major aim for the tsunami hazard prediction is better prediction of the next tsunamis and their impacts. In this paper, we present the first implications of recent slope failure events of the Andaman outer shelf and upper slope based on a new detailed bathymetric data and subbottom profiler records acquired during two cruises of the MASS project in 2006 and 2007. Morphometric analysis reveals a variety of anomalous features,including: three large plateaus surrounded by moats, ruggedness and unevenness of slope morphology, and two translational submarine landslides. Two submarine landslides are studied from the detailed bathymetric data and subbottom profiler record covering the upper slope of the Andaman Sea shelf break within Thai exclusive economic zone. Maximum approximated volumes of both displaced masses are 4.8×10~7 m~3 and 2.2×10~7 m~3.Considering the data, there is no evidence that landslides have been the sources for tsunami hazard potential in recent geological time. These prerequisites will allow better study of slope failure events in the area. Further investigation is required to better understand obvious geotectonic phenomena.

土与强风化岩双元边坡圆弧-平面破坏模式与支护设计方法

为了探究土与强风化岩边坡中强风化岩不破坏的临界坡率及稳定性判断方法,基于济南地层,得出适用于数值模拟的土层参数,并利用强度折减法求出边坡的临界坡率,为施工提供参考。针对强风化岩不破坏的边坡,运用改进的瑞典条分法求出边坡安全系数解析解,并利用滑移线场法求出滑移线,为安全系数解析解的应用提供依据。结果表明,岩层厚度超过边坡高度1/2或坡率大于1:0.5时,强风化岩一定破坏;解析解得出的安全系数偏小,有利于工程安全;针对土与强风化岩边坡,文中结果可确定边坡破坏区域,设计支护方案。

基于路段单元的公路地质灾害风险气象预警系统

面向山区交通风险管控需求,以公路为承灾体对象的地质灾害风险气象预警研究具有重要意义。以浙江省磐安县方前镇为研究区,考虑道路等级、斜坡单元、边坡类型和边坡稳定性现状4个方面,研究确定公路地质灾害预警单元的划分方法;考虑历史地质灾害的发育规律,将公路边坡分为土质、岩质和土岩混合质边坡3种类型,分别建立不同类型边坡地质灾害易发性评价体系,并通过层次分析法计算各指标权重及分值;在确定各预警单元所辖边坡地质灾害易发性等级的基础上,结合研究区四级气象预警判据建立基于路段单元的公路地质灾害风险气象预警模型,采用Java语言开发预警系统。经与2021年“烟花”台风期新生公路地质灾害点验证发现,预警成功率为100%。研究结果提供了公路地质灾害风险气象预警单元的划分方法和系统研发思路,能够为山区公路地质灾害风险气象预警提供借鉴与参考。

山区切坡活动引发地质灾害风险评估及其防控措施

以秦岭北麓西安市临潼区仁宗街道为研究区,在野外调查、遥感解译的基础上,确定、分析了40处地质灾害隐患点的发育特征及其主要影响因素;基于DEM数据,构建了研究区663个斜坡单元地质灾害风险评估体系,通过地质灾害易发性、危险性和易损性分析,得到了考虑斜坡稳定性和承灾体危害性的仁宗街道斜坡单元地质灾害综合风险评估结果;通过野外实地验证,证实了评估结果的准确性和可靠性。据此划分了地质灾害防治区,从防灾减灾和工程建设两维度提出了仁宗街道的地质灾害风险防控措施建议,为研究区国土空间规划提供参考依据。

露天地下楔形转接过渡诱导冒落控制边坡岩移危害技术研究

露天地下楔形转接过渡模式的安全管控是利用崩落法开采挂帮矿形成的塌陷坑阻止边坡岩移威胁露天采场,但地采扰动下的高陡边坡破坏过程不易控制,因而制约了楔形转接过渡模式在大型深凹露天矿山中的应用。针对上述问题,结合极限平衡分析方法,揭示出崩落法开采扰动下的高陡边坡渐进破坏规律,提出了边坡滑移体体积计算方法,以及通过调控回采顺序控制边坡滑移进程以实现塌陷坑完全承接边坡滑移体的边坡岩移危害控制技术。研究表明:边坡岩体不会随挂帮矿向下开采而发生持续破坏,只有当挂帮矿开采至关键分段时,边坡岩体受力状态超过极限平衡状态才发生滑移破坏,可通过滞后回采关键分段上盘三角矿延缓边坡滑移,以及通过滞后回采关键分段下盘矿体和采用下向阶梯状回采工作面增大塌陷坑容积,最终实现塌陷坑有序承接边坡滑移体。研究成果完善了大型深凹露天矿楔形转接过渡的安全管控方法,提高了楔形转接过渡模式的适用性。

基于信息量-机器学习耦合模型的采煤沉陷区滑坡敏感性评价

【目的】采煤沉陷区由于其特殊的地质条件和采煤背景,极易引发地面裂缝和地面塌陷,进而导致滑坡等地质灾害,选择适用的影响因子和训练模型在该地区开展滑坡敏感性评价十分必要。【方法】以北京西山煤矿区为例,采用斜坡单元与数学统计模型和机器学习模型耦合方法,开展采煤沉陷区的滑坡敏感性评价。在地理信息系统环境中,选取坡度、坡向、地表湿润度等地形地貌因子,并加入地质背景的地层岩性和与断层距离因子,采煤背景的与采煤巷道距离和与井口距离等共10个因子作为评价指标,通过相关性分析优化滑坡敏感性评价体系。同时以水文分析法划分的地形斜坡单元为评价基础,分别应用信息量模型(I)信息量-随机森林(I-RF)、信息量-多层感知机(I-MLP)耦合模型对滑坡敏感性进行空间预测。【结果和结论】结果表明,耦合模型(I-RF、I-MLP)的精度均高于独立模型(I),3种模型的AUC值分别为0.861、0.845、0.761,I-RF模型具有更强的预测能力和精度。此外地质和采煤背景因子的加入,优化了滑坡敏感性的评估效果。为了验证滑坡敏感性分区结果的实用性,以北京市“23·7”强降雨事件为时间节点,利用大比例尺航空摄影测量、时序InSAR技术等手段对滑坡敏感性评估结果进行佐证。结果表明,基于斜坡单元和耦合模型的滑坡敏感性评估结果与诱导事件后的滑坡灾害发育情况,有很大程度的吻合性。滑坡敏感性评价结果在一定程度上可以反映各斜坡的滑坡发生概率,对于采煤沉陷区滑坡灾害的预测和防治工作的开展有一定的参考性。

坡脚开挖条件下的斜坡稳定性探究

【目的】探究坡脚开挖对斜坡稳定性的影响,在数值模拟的基础上对斜坡隐患点进行稳定性评价。【方法】统计分析安徽省滁州市南谯区地灾隐患点孕灾特征,将其概括划分为6类不同坡度的斜坡模型,对每类模型进行梯度开挖,建立多种开挖工况,结合有限差分法和有限元强度折减法模拟计算出每种工况下的斜坡塑性区状态、坡体位移、安全系数。【结果】在30°坡度下,开挖10 m后,其安全系数降幅最大,为22.28%;在开挖进尺为4 m的工况下,坡度从15°增加到40°,其安全系数降幅最大,为60.18%;坡度对安全系数的影响大于开挖进尺。开挖到10 m时,临空面内部既正发生剪切破坏又正发生张拉破坏,其失稳概率高于坡顶。随着开挖进尺的增加,最大沉降和水平位移都逐渐发生在临空面上部。【结论】研究成果揭示了开挖过程中斜坡稳定性变化的规律,可为类似地质灾害的防治提供借鉴。

Exploring mechanism of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding landslides using a 3DEC model:A case study of the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China

Catastrophic geological disasters frequently occur on slopes with obliquely inclined bedding structures(also referred to as obliquely inclined bedding slopes),where the apparent dip sliding is not readily visible.This phenomenon has become a focal point in landslide research.Yet,there is a lack of studies on the failure modes and mechanisms of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding slopes.This study investigated the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China.Using field investigations,laboratory tests of geotechnical parameters,and the 3DEC software,this study developed a numerical model of the landslide to analyze the failure process of such slopes.The findings indicate that the Shanyang landslide primarily crept along a weak interlayer under the action of gravity.The landslide,initially following a dip angle with the support of a stable inclined rock mass,shifted direction under the influence of argillization in the weak interlayer,moving towards the apparent dip angle.The slide resistance effect of the karstic dissolution zone was increasingly significant during this process,with lateral friction being the primary resistance force.A reduction in the lateral friction due to karstic dissolution made the apparent dip sliding characteristics of the Shanyang landslide more pronounced.Notably,deformations such as bending and uplift at the slope’s foot suggest that the main slide resistance shifts from lateral friction within the karstic dissolution zone to the slope foot’s resistance force,leading to the eventual buckling failure of the landslide.This study unveils a novel failure mode of apparent dip creep-buckling in the Shanyang landslide,highlighting the critical role of lateral friction from the karstic dissolution zone in its failure mechanism.These insights offer a valuable reference for mitigating risks and preventing disasters related to obliquely inclined bedding landslides.

基于多源数据的广域滑坡隐患数字地形分析

浅表层滑坡地质灾害受地形土质含水影响较大,一般具有明显的形变特征。本文首先利用广域合成孔径雷达干涉技术(InSAR)识别异常形变区,并采用机载激光雷达采集获取地面不低于20个点每平方米(pts/m^(2))的点云数据,对点云进行滤波分类生成滤除覆被数字高程模型获取斜坡坡高、坡度、坡向及边坡形态等参量化地形地貌特征,随后利用高分辨率影像辅助提取滑坡隐患疑似区域开展外业现场核验。结果表明:滑坡隐患坡高集中分布在10~20m,坡度分布在25~45°,以北东向直线及阶梯形斜坡为主,植被较为发育。利用激光雷达(LiDAR)能精细探测滑坡隐患林下坡面形态特征,对植被发育区地质灾害早期识别具有工程参考价值。

Extensive identification of landslide boundaries using remote sensing images and deep learning method

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has rendered numerous landslides to a global natural disaster issue.It is crucial to rapidly and accurately determine the boundaries of landslides for geohazards evaluation and emergency response.Therefore,the Skip Connection DeepLab neural network(SCDnn),a deep learning model based on 770 optical remote sensing images of landslide,is proposed to improve the accuracy of landslide boundary detection.The SCDnn model is optimized for the over-segmentation issue which occurs in conventional deep learning models when there is a significant degree of similarity between topographical geomorphic features.SCDnn exhibits notable improvements in landslide feature extraction and semantic segmentation by combining an enhanced Atrous Spatial Pyramid Convolutional Block(ASPC)with a coding structure that reduces model complexity.The experimental results demonstrate that SCDnn can identify landslide boundaries in 119 images with MIoU values between 0.8and 0.9;while 52 images with MIoU values exceeding 0.9,which exceeds the identification accuracy of existing techniques.This work can offer a novel technique for the automatic extensive identification of landslide boundaries in remote sensing images in addition to establishing the groundwork for future inve stigations and applications in related domains.

某区域内地质灾害风险研究

为了最大程度减少因地质灾害伤亡和经济损失,研究了某区域地质灾害风险,主要地质灾害为崩塌、滑坡和地面塌陷,在GIS平台上,基于研究区数字高程模型(DEM)提取山脊、沟谷线,结合人工调整和现场调查结果等对研究区进行斜坡单元划分,共划分出327个评价单元;采用矩阵分析方法得出地质灾害风险性评价。研究得出,研究区地质灾害风险性评价结果将地质灾害防治区划分为重点防治区、次重点防治区、一般防治区,其中,重点防治区面积占研究区总面积的5.01%,次重点防治区面积占研究区总面积的20.20%,一般防治区面积占研究区总面积的74.79%。

堆弃排土场边坡降雨渗流特性及潜在危害治理

某堆弃排土场临近河流,其边坡的整体高度及台阶高度均较高,受降雨渗流的影响明显更大,在降雨作用下存在潜在危害。结合排土场的堆排情况与周边环境,研究了该排土场在降雨条件下的渗流特性,分析了排土场边坡的潜在危害,提出了相应的治理方案。结果表明:随着降雨的持续,排土场坡体表面会出现暂态饱和区,并不断向坡体内部扩展;降雨过程中,坡面的孔隙水压力先迅速升为正值,后逐渐趋于稳定,坡面达到饱和状态;在降雨作用下,排土场边坡的相对稳定关系为:坡底>坡顶>坡中,其潜在危害部位为+85 m平台至+170 m平台位置;通过增设安全平台、减缓坡面角的治理方法,可有效控制潜在危害。

复杂地质灾害发育特征及其规律研究

为了将地质灾害的损失降至最低,以某研究区域为背景,对其地质灾害滑坡、崩塌、不稳定斜坡进行分析,分别通过物质组成、目前稳定性、地质灾害规模等方面进行了分类,得出了地质灾害的危害程度,同时通过PFC2D软件进行滑坡的过程分析,得出了滑坡地质灾害的机理,为后续滑坡地质灾害的控制提供一定的参考。

多源测绘技术在沿黄公路边坡地质灾害调查中的应用

针对传统公路边坡地质灾害调查效率低、精度差、危险性高等不足,本文在沿黄公路开展了地质灾害调查试验,通过综合运用无人机倾斜摄影、车载移动测量、地面激光扫描仪、贴近摄影测量等多种测绘技术方法,研究生产中的工艺流程、技术参数及关键技术环节,形成了空地一体的解决方案,提高了边坡地质灾害调查的精度、效率及安全性。

紫阳县城关镇滑坡灾害隐患识别

滑坡灾害是紫阳县城关镇主要的地质灾害之一,其中存在滑坡灾害隐患但尚未发生滑坡灾害的斜坡单元对居民的生命和财产安全构成极大的威胁。以紫阳县城关镇为研究区,按照其环境条件与行政区划,将研究区划分为530个斜坡单元,利用基于栅格的瞬态降水入渗斜坡稳定性(TRIGRS)模型,对该地区在2022年最大小时雨强(50.7 mm/h)下各斜坡单元的稳定性系数进行了模拟计算,并按照斜坡单元稳定性系数大小将其分为稳定性极低、稳定性较低、稳定性较高、基本稳定区。结果表明:研究区稳定性极低区包含193个斜坡单元,面积为48.21 km^(2),稳定性较低区有223个斜坡单元,面积为50.93 km^(2),这两类斜坡单元存在滑坡灾害隐患,其中58个斜坡单元已发生滑坡灾害,占比为13.94%,另外358个斜坡单元存在滑坡灾害隐患但目前尚未发生滑坡灾害,需要对其进行重点监测与防范。该研究结果可为当地政府的防灾减灾工作提供理论支持。

桂东县切坡建房引发的地质灾害特征及防治对策

湖南省桂东县因地处山区,切坡建房现象普遍。近年来极端天气频发,因切坡建房引发的地质灾害数量明显增多,造成的损失也急剧增大,极大地威胁居民生命财产安全,制约桂东县乡村振兴和旅游经济发展。本文对桂东县切坡建房引发地质灾害的特征进行分析研究,认为桂东县切坡建房具有空间分布广、所形成的边坡稳定性差、致灾类型主要为滑坡和崩塌、致灾规模小、预警反应时间少、防治难度大等特点,建议采取以减少存量、控制增量、降低风险、预警预报监管等手段相结合的防治对策。