为探究SHAW(Simultaneous heat and water)模型中输入参数不确定性在模拟积雪覆盖条件下土壤热过程中对输出结果造成的影响以及关键影响因素,以松嫩平原黑土区东北农业大学试验场为研究区域,运用SHAW模型模拟积雪覆盖条件下6个不同深度...为探究SHAW(Simultaneous heat and water)模型中输入参数不确定性在模拟积雪覆盖条件下土壤热过程中对输出结果造成的影响以及关键影响因素,以松嫩平原黑土区东北农业大学试验场为研究区域,运用SHAW模型模拟积雪覆盖条件下6个不同深度土层热过程动态变化情况,并结合拉丁超立方取样(Latin hypercube sampling,LHS)方法,采用标准秩逐步回归探究参数不确定性对土壤冻结深度和温度输出不确定性的影响。结果表明:SHAW模型能够反映土壤冻融规律,6个深度土层温度的模拟值与实测值平均绝对误差小于2℃,选取的参数对土壤温度的输出敏感性较弱,而初始积雪厚度对土壤冻结深度的输出起主导作用。总体而言,SHAW模型基于LHS抽样和标准秩逐步回归方法可用于模拟积雪覆盖条件下土壤热过程模拟研究。展开更多
为了预测未来气候变化下冬季径流,利用寒区水文模型CRHM(Cold Region Hydrological Model platform)模拟2000-2012年和预测2025-2060年松花江二级支流依吉密河上游冬季径流流量。研究结果表明:①根据2025-2060年际冬季径流深和径流系数...为了预测未来气候变化下冬季径流,利用寒区水文模型CRHM(Cold Region Hydrological Model platform)模拟2000-2012年和预测2025-2060年松花江二级支流依吉密河上游冬季径流流量。研究结果表明:①根据2025-2060年际冬季径流深和径流系数变化,发现典型排放浓度增加,冬季径流序列不稳定性增大。②根据识别突变点位置,发现典型排放浓度越高,累积冬季径流拐点增多。③通过相关性分析发现,同时期气候为影响冬季月径流的主要因素,冬季降水是影响冬季月径流变化的主要因素。④利用累积量斜率变化率比较方法发现,相对于2025-2042年,2043-2056年和2057-2060年冬季降水增长对冬季径流增长贡献率分别为39.8%和62.6%;相对于2043-2056年,2057-2060年冬季降水减少对冬季径流减少的贡献率为27.0%。展开更多
The calculating schemes of underlying surface processes in the model described by Li et al.(1989) are modified with inclusion of simple land surface processes and oceanic mixed layer processes, then a simulation on th...The calculating schemes of underlying surface processes in the model described by Li et al.(1989) are modified with inclusion of simple land surface processes and oceanic mixed layer processes, then a simulation on the zonal wind along 90°E from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere with moun- tains is performed.Comparisons of the results and the observations show that the modified model not only has an excellent stability in calculation but also can better display the seasonal change of the wind field,the ability of the present model is improved as compared with that of the previous one. Based on the simulations,the authors investigate the effects of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on the formation of South Asian monsoon by thickcning the snow depth and by increasing the snow albedo.The main results arc as follows:The summer meridional circulation over the south of the Plateau and its vicinity is weakeued,and the precipitation reduced.However,over the northern tropics,the circulation is enhanced, and the ecipitation is increased,and the land and the air above it become warmer,the tropical easterly jet is weakened.展开更多
文摘为了预测未来气候变化下冬季径流,利用寒区水文模型CRHM(Cold Region Hydrological Model platform)模拟2000-2012年和预测2025-2060年松花江二级支流依吉密河上游冬季径流流量。研究结果表明:①根据2025-2060年际冬季径流深和径流系数变化,发现典型排放浓度增加,冬季径流序列不稳定性增大。②根据识别突变点位置,发现典型排放浓度越高,累积冬季径流拐点增多。③通过相关性分析发现,同时期气候为影响冬季月径流的主要因素,冬季降水是影响冬季月径流变化的主要因素。④利用累积量斜率变化率比较方法发现,相对于2025-2042年,2043-2056年和2057-2060年冬季降水增长对冬季径流增长贡献率分别为39.8%和62.6%;相对于2043-2056年,2057-2060年冬季降水减少对冬季径流减少的贡献率为27.0%。
文摘The calculating schemes of underlying surface processes in the model described by Li et al.(1989) are modified with inclusion of simple land surface processes and oceanic mixed layer processes, then a simulation on the zonal wind along 90°E from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere with moun- tains is performed.Comparisons of the results and the observations show that the modified model not only has an excellent stability in calculation but also can better display the seasonal change of the wind field,the ability of the present model is improved as compared with that of the previous one. Based on the simulations,the authors investigate the effects of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on the formation of South Asian monsoon by thickcning the snow depth and by increasing the snow albedo.The main results arc as follows:The summer meridional circulation over the south of the Plateau and its vicinity is weakeued,and the precipitation reduced.However,over the northern tropics,the circulation is enhanced, and the ecipitation is increased,and the land and the air above it become warmer,the tropical easterly jet is weakened.
