There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic:vaccinations,social restrictions,tracings,testings,and treatments.In this paper,...There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic:vaccinations,social restrictions,tracings,testings,and treatments.In this paper,we construct a mathematical model of type SVEIQHR(susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-quarantined-hospitalised-recovered)for the disease's spread in the country,which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions,as well as the vaccine's efficacy.We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number.Using the model,we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact.The results show that,in a disease-free state,when the number of new cases rises,the best strategy is to implement social restrictions,whereas in an endemic state,if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable,carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy;however,efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate,but towards the use of highefficacy vaccines.展开更多
基金This research was supported by Parahyangan Catholic University via the Publikasi Internasional Bereputasi research grant scheme 2022(Number:III/LPPM/2022-02/75-P).
文摘There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic:vaccinations,social restrictions,tracings,testings,and treatments.In this paper,we construct a mathematical model of type SVEIQHR(susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-quarantined-hospitalised-recovered)for the disease's spread in the country,which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions,as well as the vaccine's efficacy.We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number.Using the model,we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact.The results show that,in a disease-free state,when the number of new cases rises,the best strategy is to implement social restrictions,whereas in an endemic state,if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable,carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy;however,efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate,but towards the use of highefficacy vaccines.
