In parametric cost estimating, objections to using statistical Cost Estimating Relationships （CERs） and parametric models include problems of low statistical significance due to limited data points, biases in the un...In parametric cost estimating, objections to using statistical Cost Estimating Relationships （CERs） and parametric models include problems of low statistical significance due to limited data points, biases in the underlying data, and lack of robustness. Soft Computing （SC） technologies are used for building intelligent cost models. The SC models are systemically evaluated based on their training and prediction of the historical cost data of airborne avionics systems. Results indicating the strengths and weakness of each model are presented. In general, the intelligent cost models have higher prediction precision, better data adaptability, and stronger self-learning capability than the regression CERs.展开更多
Background: Soft song is a low-amplitude song produced by many birds. Recent studies have confirmed that soft song is an aggressive signal. For example, the Brownish-flanked Bush Warblers Cettia fortipes use soft song...Background: Soft song is a low-amplitude song produced by many birds. Recent studies have confirmed that soft song is an aggressive signal. For example, the Brownish-flanked Bush Warblers Cettia fortipes use soft song in male-male conflicts, particularly prior to attacks. Although stable signaling systems require that signals be honest on average,models predict that cheating is an acceptable strategy for some individuals or in some contexts.Methods: This study aimed to test the reliability of soft song as an aggressive signal in the brownish-flanked bush warbler. We used mounted specimens accompanied by broadcast songs or soft songs to simulate a male attempting to invade an existing territory.Results: We found the mounted specimen that coupled playback of soft songs suffered more and quicker attacks from the territory owner and that the relationship between soft song and subsequent attack in the territory owner was far from perfect. We observed territory owners that both over-signaled(i.e., produced soft song but did not attack) and under-signaled(i.e., attacked without producing soft song). Under-signaling territory owners were relatively more commonly than were over-signaling territory owners, particularly in simulated intrusion that coupled playback of soft song with a mount specimen.Conclusions: We discuss the cost of producing soft song and the potential benefit of the unreliable use of soft song and propose a new hypothesis for under-signaling with soft song; i.e., under-signaling territory owners might benefit from taking the initiative in fights.展开更多
It is an important task for airlines to make a reasonable workscope for their engines, which has effects not only on engine performance and reliability, but also on airlines operating cost. Based on the recommendation...It is an important task for airlines to make a reasonable workscope for their engines, which has effects not only on engine performance and reliability, but also on airlines operating cost. Based on the recommendations given in the engine maintenance management manual, and taking the repair levels adopted in the previous shop visits into account, a series of module repair level optimization rules were set up, and a shop visit cost optimization model was also created for engine service life cycle. The particle swarm method was used to optimize the engine workscope and overhaul cost. The method proposed in this paper will be a reference for airlines to make engine workscope and to do engine maintenance management.展开更多
目的:基于中国卫生服务体系角度评价血塞通软胶囊对比安慰剂治疗缺血性中风患者的经济性。方法:基于血塞通软胶囊的Ⅲ期对照试验和已发表的文献数据构建markov模型,模拟患者终身的质量调整生命年(quality-adjusted life year,QALY)和增...目的:基于中国卫生服务体系角度评价血塞通软胶囊对比安慰剂治疗缺血性中风患者的经济性。方法:基于血塞通软胶囊的Ⅲ期对照试验和已发表的文献数据构建markov模型,模拟患者终身的质量调整生命年(quality-adjusted life year,QALY)和增量成本效果比(Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ICER),并进行单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析检验模型的不确定性。结果:基础分析结果显示,与安慰剂组相比,血塞通软胶囊在获得0.32个QALY且节约医疗成本,具有绝对优势,单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析验证了模型的稳健性。单因素敏感性分析显示对模型结果影响程度最大的4个因素分别是mRS3-5首次住院成本、mRS0-2首次住院成本、mRS0-2的状态效用值及贴现率;概率敏感性分析显示在我国的意愿支付值之下血塞通软胶囊具有经济性的概率为100%。结论:与安慰剂相比,血塞通软胶囊在提升QALY的同时降低了相应的成本,对治疗我国缺血性中风患者具有经济性。展开更多
文摘In parametric cost estimating, objections to using statistical Cost Estimating Relationships （CERs） and parametric models include problems of low statistical significance due to limited data points, biases in the underlying data, and lack of robustness. Soft Computing （SC） technologies are used for building intelligent cost models. The SC models are systemically evaluated based on their training and prediction of the historical cost data of airborne avionics systems. Results indicating the strengths and weakness of each model are presented. In general, the intelligent cost models have higher prediction precision, better data adaptability, and stronger self-learning capability than the regression CERs.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.31172098)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2014 M550026)
文摘Background: Soft song is a low-amplitude song produced by many birds. Recent studies have confirmed that soft song is an aggressive signal. For example, the Brownish-flanked Bush Warblers Cettia fortipes use soft song in male-male conflicts, particularly prior to attacks. Although stable signaling systems require that signals be honest on average,models predict that cheating is an acceptable strategy for some individuals or in some contexts.Methods: This study aimed to test the reliability of soft song as an aggressive signal in the brownish-flanked bush warbler. We used mounted specimens accompanied by broadcast songs or soft songs to simulate a male attempting to invade an existing territory.Results: We found the mounted specimen that coupled playback of soft songs suffered more and quicker attacks from the territory owner and that the relationship between soft song and subsequent attack in the territory owner was far from perfect. We observed territory owners that both over-signaled(i.e., produced soft song but did not attack) and under-signaled(i.e., attacked without producing soft song). Under-signaling territory owners were relatively more commonly than were over-signaling territory owners, particularly in simulated intrusion that coupled playback of soft song with a mount specimen.Conclusions: We discuss the cost of producing soft song and the potential benefit of the unreliable use of soft song and propose a new hypothesis for under-signaling with soft song; i.e., under-signaling territory owners might benefit from taking the initiative in fights.
文摘It is an important task for airlines to make a reasonable workscope for their engines, which has effects not only on engine performance and reliability, but also on airlines operating cost. Based on the recommendations given in the engine maintenance management manual, and taking the repair levels adopted in the previous shop visits into account, a series of module repair level optimization rules were set up, and a shop visit cost optimization model was also created for engine service life cycle. The particle swarm method was used to optimize the engine workscope and overhaul cost. The method proposed in this paper will be a reference for airlines to make engine workscope and to do engine maintenance management.
文摘目的:基于中国卫生服务体系角度评价血塞通软胶囊对比安慰剂治疗缺血性中风患者的经济性。方法:基于血塞通软胶囊的Ⅲ期对照试验和已发表的文献数据构建markov模型,模拟患者终身的质量调整生命年(quality-adjusted life year,QALY)和增量成本效果比(Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ICER),并进行单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析检验模型的不确定性。结果:基础分析结果显示,与安慰剂组相比,血塞通软胶囊在获得0.32个QALY且节约医疗成本,具有绝对优势,单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析验证了模型的稳健性。单因素敏感性分析显示对模型结果影响程度最大的4个因素分别是mRS3-5首次住院成本、mRS0-2首次住院成本、mRS0-2的状态效用值及贴现率;概率敏感性分析显示在我国的意愿支付值之下血塞通软胶囊具有经济性的概率为100%。结论:与安慰剂相比,血塞通软胶囊在提升QALY的同时降低了相应的成本,对治疗我国缺血性中风患者具有经济性。
