The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and Climate Change Using a Coupled Model

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-0.16 gC m-2 yr-2.

Review on the Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Region’s Agriculture and Water Resources

This study investigates the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the Midwest region of the United States, particularly the rising temperatures and precipitation brought about by hot weather activities and technological advances since the 19th century. From 1900 to 2010, temperatures in the Midwest rose by an average of 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would also lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Precipitation is also expected to increase due to increased storm activity and changes in regional weather patterns. This paper explores the impact of these changes on urban and agricultural areas. In urban areas such as the city of Chicago, runoff from the increasing impervious surface areas poses challenges to the drainage system, and agriculture areas are challenged by soil erosion, nutrient loss, and fewer planting days due to excessive rainfall. Sustainable solutions such as no-till agriculture and the creation of grassland zones are discussed. Using historical data, recent climate studies and projections, the paper Outlines ways to enhance the Midwest’s ecology and resilience to climate change.

Evaluating the Capabilities of Soil Enthalpy, Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation

Soil enthalpy （H） contains the combined effects of both soil moisture （w） and soil temperature （T） in the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, the sensitivities of H to w and T are investigated using the multi-linear regression method. Results indicate that T generally makes positive contributions to H, while w exhibits different （positive or negative） impacts due to soil ice effects. For example, w negatively contributes to H if soil contains more ice; however, after soil ice melts, w exerts positive contributions. In particular, due to lower w interannual variabilities in the deep soil layer （i.e., the fifth layer）, H is more sensitive to T than to w. Moreover, to compare the potential capabilities of H, w and T in precipitation （P） prediction, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin （HHB） and Southeast China （SEC）, with similar sensitivities of H to w and T, are selected. Analyses show that, despite similar spatial distributions of H-P and T-P correlation coefficients, the former values are always higher than the latter ones. Furthermore, H provides the most effective signals for P prediction over HHB and SEC, i.e., a significant leading correlation between May H and early summer （June） P. In summary, H, which integrates the effects of T and w as an independent variable, has greater capabilities in monitoring land surface heating and improving seasonal P prediction relative to individual land surface factors （e.g., T and w）.

Enhanced soil moisture improves vegetation growth in an arid grassland of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Climate change impacts on grasslands that cover a quarter of the global land area, have become unprecedented during the 21~(st) century. One of the important ecological realms, arid grasslands of northern China, which occupy more than 70% of the region's land area. However, the impact of climate change on vegetation growth in these arid grasslands is not consistent and lacks corresponding quantitative research. In this study, NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) and climate factors including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and meteorological drought were analyzed to explore the determinants of changes in grassland greenness in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(northern China) during 1982–2016. The results showed that grasslands in Inner Mongolia witnessed an obvious trend of seasonal greening during the study period. Two prominent climatic factors,precipitation and soil moisture accounted for approximately 33% and 27% of grassland NDVI trends in the region based on multiple linear regression and boosted regression tree methods. This finding highlights the impact of water constraints to vegetation growth in Inner Mongolia's grasslands. The dominant role of precipitation in regulating grassland NDVI trends in Inner Mongolia significantly weakened from 1982 to 1996, and the role of soil moisture strengthened after 1996. Our findings emphasize the enhanced importance of soil moisture in driving vegetation growth in arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia, which should be thoroughly investigated in the future.

INFLUENCE OF SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION ON CLIMATE CHANGES INDUCED BY THERMAL FORCING

A land-process scheme has been incorporated in a vertical one-dimensional time-dependent atmospheric model and numerical experiments have been performed with the coupled model to examine influences of soil wetness and vege- tation on climate changes associated to thermal forcing.It is showed that response of land-surface temperature to the thermal forcing becomes small with increase of soil water content and vegetation cover.Furthermore,the response is more obvious in arid climate region than in humid one.The result also shows that there exist two patterns of corre- sponding relation between variations in air temperature and humidity on the land surface in response to hydrologic and thermal focing.

A Case Study of the Improvement of Soil Moisture Initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction, and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.

The Relationship between Spring Soil Moisture and Summer Hot Extremes over North China

The increase in the occurrence of hot extremes is known to have resulted in serious consequences for human society and ecosystems. However, our ability to seasonally predict hot extremes remains poor, largely due to our limited understanding of slowly evolving earth system components such as soil moisture, and their interactions with climate. In this study, we focus on North China, and investigate the relationship of the spring soil moisture condition to summer hot extremes using soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System and observational temperature for the period 1981-2008. It is found that local soil moisture condition in spring is closely linked to summer hot days and heat waves over North China, accounting for 19%-34% of the total variances. Spring soil moisture anomalies can persist to the summer season, and subsequently alter latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus having significant effects on summer hot extremes. Our findings indicate that the spring soil moisture condition can be a useful predictor for summer hot days and heat waves over North China.

Thornthwaite moisture index and depth of suction change under current and future climate‒An Australian study

Climate change is one of the major global challenges and it can have a significant influence on the behaviour and resilience of geotechnical structures.The changes in moisture content in soil lead to effective stress changes and can be accompanied by significant volume changes in reactive/expansive soils.The volume change leads to ground movement and can exert additional stresses on structures founded on or within a shallow depth of such soils.Climate change is likely to amplify the ground movement potential and the associated problems are likely to worsen.The effect of atmospheric boundary interaction on soil behaviour has often been correlated to Thornthwaite moisture index(TMI).In this study,the long-term weather data and anticipated future projections for various emission scenarios were used to generate a series of TMI maps for Australia.The changes in TMI were then correlated to the depth of suction change(H s),an important input in ground movement calculation.Under all climate scenarios considered,reductions in TMI and increases in H s values were observed.A hypothetical design scenario of a footing on expansive soil under current and future climate is discussed.It is observed that a design that might be considered adequate under the current climate scenario,may fail under future scenarios and accommodations should be made in the design for such events.

Interaction between Soil Moisture and Air Temperature in the Mississippi River Basin

Increasing air temperatures are expected to continue in the future. The relation between soil moisture and near surface air temperature is significant for climate change and climate extremes. Evaluation of the relations between soil moisture and temperature was performed by developing a quantile regression model, a wavelet coherency model, and a Mann-Kendall correlation model from 1950 to 2010 in the Mississippi River Basin. The results indicate that first, anomaly air temperature is negatively correlated to anomaly soil moisture in the upper and lower basin, and however, the correlation between them are mixed in the middle basin. The correlation is stronger at the higher quantile (90th) of the two variables. Second, anomaly soil moisture and air temperature show strong coherency in annual frequency, indicating that the two variables are interannually correlated. Third, annual air temperature is significant negatively related to soil moisture, indicating that dry (wet) soil leads to warm (cool) weather in the basin. These results have potential application to future climate change research and water resource management. Also, the strong relationship between soil moisture and air temperature at annual scale could result in improved temperature predictability.

Unravelling Effects of Temperature and Soil Moisture Stress Response on Development of Dry Root Rot [<i>Rhizoctonia bataticola</i>(Taub.)] Butler in Chickpea

Erratic rainfalls and rise in temperature have become more frequent under the changing scenario of climate particularly in semiarid tropics. As a consequence of it, a drastic shift of chickpea diseases have been recorded throughout the major chickpea growing regions in India and elsewhere. Dry root rot (DRR) caused by Rhizoctonia bataticola (Taub.) Butler [Pycnidial stage: Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid] was found as a potentially emerging constraint to chickpea production than wilt (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris). Increasing incidence of DRR indicate strong influence of climate change variables such as temperature and moisture on the development of disease. The present study therefore was conducted to quantify the role of temperature and soil moisture associated with infection, colonization and development of DRR under controlled environment. The DRR incidence was significantly affected by high temperature and soil moisture deficit. Out of five temperature regimes (15?C, 20?C, 25?C, 30?C and 35?C) and four moisture levels (40%, 60%, 80% and 100%), a combination of high temperature (35?C) and soil moisture content (60%) predisposes chickpea to DRR. The study clearly demonstrates that high temperature coupled with soil moisture deficit is the climate change variables predisposing chickpea to R. bataticola infection, colonization and development.

Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Soil moisture controls the spatio-temporal pattern of soil respiration under different land use systems in a semi-arid ecosystem of Delhi,India

Background:Soil respiration(S_(R))is a critical process for understanding the impact of climatic conditions and land degradation on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems.We measured the S_(R) and soil environmental factors over 1 year in four land uses with varying levels of disturbance and different vegetation types viz.,mixed forest cover(MFC),Prosopis juliflora(Sw.)forest cover(PFC),agricultural field(AF),and vegetable field(VF),in a semi-arid area of Delhi,India.Our primary aim was to assess the effects of soil moisture(S_(M)),soil temperature(S_(T)),and soil microbial activity(S_(MA))on the S_(R).Methods:The S_(R) was measured monthly using an LI-6400 with an infrared gas analyser and a soil chamber.The S_(M) was measured using the gravimetric method.The S_(T)(10 cm)was measured with a probe attached to the LI-6400.The S_(MA) was determined by fluorescein diacetate hydrolysis.Results:The S_(R) showed seasonal variations,with the mean annual S_(R) ranging from 3.22 to 5.78μmol m^(−2) s^(−1) and higher S_(R) rates of~15-55%in the cultivated fields(AF,VF)than in the forest sites(MFC,PFC).The VF had significantly higher S_(R)(P<0.05)than the other land uses(AF,PFC,MFC),which did not vary significantly from one another in S_(R)(P<0.05).The repeated measures ANOVA evaluated the significant differences(P<0.05)in the S_(R) for high precipitation months(July,August,September,February).The S_(M) as a single factor showed a strong significant relationship in all the land uses(R^(2)=0.67-0.91,P<0.001).The effect of the S_(T) on the S_(R) was found to be weak and non-significant in the PFC,MFC,and AF(R^(2)=0.14-0.31;P>0.05).Contrasting results were observed in the VF,which showed high S_(R) during summer(May;11.21μmol m^(−2) s^(−1))and a significant exponential relationship with the S_(T)(R^(2)=0.52;P<0.05).The S_(R) was positively related to the SMA(R2=0.44-0.5;P<0.001).The interactive equations based on the independent variables S_(M),S_(T),and S_(MA) explained 91-95%of the seasonal variation in S_(R) with better model performance in the cultivated land use sites(AF,VF).Conclusion:S_(M) was the key determining factor of the S_(R) in semi-arid ecosystems and explained~90%of the variation.Precipitation increased S_(R) by optimizing the S_(M) and microbial activity.The S_(MA),along with the other soil factors S_(M) and S_(T),improved the correlation with S_(R).Furthermore,the degraded land uses will be more susceptible to temporal variations in S_(R) under changing climatic scenarios,which may influence the carbon balance of these ecosystems.

Influence of Climate on Soil Organic Carbon in Chinese Paddy Soils

Soil organic carbon(SOC) is a major component of the global carbon cycle and has a potentially large impact on the greenhouse effect. Paddy soils are important agricultural soils worldwide, especially in Asia. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between SOC of paddy soils and climate variables is crucial to a robust understanding of the potential effect of climate change on the global carbon cycle. A soil profile data set(n = 1490) from the Second National Soil Survey of China conducted from 1979 to 1994 was used to explore the relationships of SOC density with mean annual temperature(MAT) and mean annual precipitation(MAP) in six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. Results showed that SOC density of paddy soils was negatively correlated with MAT and positively correlated with MAP(P < 0.01). The relationships of SOC density with MAT and MAP were weak and varied among the six soil regions and eight paddy soil subgroups. A preliminary assessment of the response of SOC in Chinese paddy soils to climate indicated that climate could lead to a 13% SOC loss from paddy soils. Compared to other soil regions, paddy soils in Northern China will potentially more sensitive to climate change over the next several decades. Paddy soils in Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin could be a potential carbon sink. Reducing the climate impact on paddy soil SOC will mitigate the positive feedback loop between SOC release and global climate change.

Soil respiration in a natural forest and a plantation during a dry period in the Philippines

Climate change is forecast to increase the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and dryer days and is anticipated to have profound impacts on the global carbon budget.Droughts are expected to alter soil respiration(R_(s))rates,but the scarcity of data preclude a reliable estimate of this response and its future trajectory.A field experiment using an automated soil respiration machinery(LI-8100A)was conducted in a natural forest and a plantation during a dry period in the Philippines,with the goal of quantifying Rsrates and their relationship with soil temperature and moisture,and air temperature.The natural forest(5.81μmol m^(-2)s^(-1))exhibited significantly higher Rsrates(p<0.0001)compared with the plantation(1.82μmol m^(-2)s^(-1))and control(3.23μmol m^(-2)s^(-1)).Rsrates showed significant negative relationships with air(-0.71)and soil temperatures(-0.62),indicating that as temperatures increase,the R_(s)rates decrease.In contrast,the R_(s)rates exhibited a significant positive relationship with soil moisture(0.65).Although the low R_(s)rates in the plantation and high Rsrates in the natural forest are indicators of sensitivities of these two types of tropical forests to warm,dry soil,this observation is only conclusive during the dry period,but not necessarily during wet periods.Further studies are needed to determine the trend of Rsrates during wet periods,considering different site conditions and types of vegetation.

蒙古高原土壤水分时空格局演变特征分析

[目的]解析蒙古高原土壤水分的时空分异及变化规律并量化关键驱动因素的影响,为区域生态恢复及生态系统可持续发展提供理论依据。[方法]基于ERA5土壤水分数据揭示了2000—2020年蒙古高原0—289 cm土壤水分空间分异特征及变化规律,并量化了气象、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、陆地水储量异常(TWSA)、土壤质地、地形等不同环境因子的影响。[结果](1)2000—2020年蒙古高原土壤水分整体呈东北高、西南低的分布特征。土壤水分由浅至深呈先增加再减少的趋势,且仅深层土壤水分(100—289 cm)变化趋势显著。(2)大部分区域未来变化趋势呈持续稳定状态,从土壤表层到第4层分别有58.5%,76.7%,91.3%,98.8%的区域土壤水分变化趋势与过去相同;蒙古高原西北部及内蒙古中部地区土壤水分干化情况可能会进一步加重。(3)温度、TWSA、降水和NDVI是影响土壤水分空间分布的主导环境因子。大部分因子交互呈现出双因子增强作用,蒙古高原土壤水分空间分异是多因子共同作用的结果。(4)表层和次表层土壤水分的变化主要受降水的正向影响,主控区域分别占98.7%,94.8%;降水和TWSA对28—100 cm土壤水分的主控区域分别集中在森林和草原覆盖区,主导区域面积占比分别为38.7%,38.8%;TWSA降低是导致深层土壤水分干化的主要驱动力且其主控区域面积占比达58.6%;植被耗水的增加以及温度的升高分别主控16.2%,14.8%区域100—289 cm土壤水分变化。[结论]土壤水分的时空分异及变化规律明显,各深度的土壤水分的主要驱动力各有不同,对蒙古高原生态恢复及生态系统可持续发展意义重大,未来应深入分析人类活动对其的影响。

2000-2021年新疆植被覆盖度变化及驱动力

[目的]探讨2000—2021年新疆植被覆盖变化及其驱动力的分析,为新疆地区环境监测提供理论依据。[方法]借助GEE平台获取由NASA提供的NDVI数据,利用趋势分析、Hurst指数法对新疆地区2000—2021年植被覆盖变化进行动态分析,结合气象等数据,采用Mann-Kendall、偏相关分析法等对植被覆盖变化与气候、地表因素的响应进行分析。[结果](1)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年际变化总体以0.0014/a的速率波动式增长;年内变化总体呈倒U型,草甸植被的NDVI月均值波动最大。(2)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年均值77.9%在0~0.3波动,在空间分布表现为北部和西北部高,南部和东南部低。(3)2000—2021年新疆地区总体slope值在-0.036~0.052波动,主要变化趋势为基本不变和轻微改善,结合Hurst指数,新疆植被主要未来趋势变化为改善到退化。(4)22年间新疆地区的气温总体呈上升趋势,降水、土壤湿度和径流总体呈下降趋势。NDVI年均值与气温、降水、土壤湿度和径流呈显著负相关性的像元数占比均大于正相关性的像元数占比,且存在明显的空间地域特征。[结论]新疆植被覆盖变化总体呈上升趋势,但未来趋势不容乐观,需要重点关注新疆地区的环境监测等保护措施。

基于机器学习的中国夏季降水延伸期预报及土壤湿度的可能贡献

延伸期预报准确率较低的问题仍然是目前重要的科学难题,做好延伸期预报对防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文利用机器学习方法开展了中国夏季降水延伸期(5~30天)预报试验,并探讨了土壤湿度对降水延伸期预报的可能贡献。结果表明机器学习方法的预报结果准确率要比传统线性模型方法有较大改善,且在诸多机器学习方法中,以Catboost, Lightgbm和Adaboost三个机器学习模型为最优。进一步分析发现长江流域表层土壤湿度异常导致的蒸发异常和感热异常,能够引起大气环流和垂直运动异常,最终对夏季降水产生影响。使用三个最优的机器学习方法的集合计算出模型中各个预报因子的贡献率,发现在长江流域的延伸期降水中,局地土壤湿度主要在5~10天占主导作用,而前期降水主要在10~15天占主导作用,长江流域20~30天的延伸期降水基本上受到大尺度环流控制。还评估了非局地土壤湿度在延伸期降水中的作用,发现中南半岛表层土壤湿度主要对15~30天的长江流域延伸期降水有重要贡献。将中南半岛表层土壤湿度加入到东北地区延伸期降水模型中,发现对该地区延伸期降水预报准确率并无提升作用,验证了机器学习模型的可用性。该研究为延伸期降水预测以及探究预报因子贡献率提供了一定的参考。

Effects of irrigation on precipitation in the arid regions of Xinjiang,China

Soil moisture is an important parameter for the interaction between soil and atmosphere. It is the sec- ond important factor that influences climate change, next to sea surface temperature （SST）. Most previous studies focused on the monsoon regions in East China, and only a few laid emphases on arid environments. In Xinjiang, which is located in Northwest China, the climate is typically arid and semi-arid. During the past 20 years, the pre- cipitation in Xinjiang has shown a significant increasing trend, and it is closely related to oasis irrigation. This paper aims at discussing whether abnormal soil moisture in spring can be the signal to forecast summer precipitation. The effects of abnormal soil moisture due to farm irrigation in spring in arid environments on regional climate are inves- tigated by using a regional climate model （RegCM3）. The results indicate that positive soil moisture anomaly in irrigated cropland surface in May led to an increase in precipitation in spring as well as across the whole summer. The impact could last for about four months. The effects of soil moisture on the surface air temperature showed a time-lagging trend. The summer air temperature declined by a maximum amplitude of 0.8℃. The increased soil moisture could enhance evaporation and ascending motion in the low troposphere, which brought in more precipi- tation. The soil moisture affected regional weather and climate mainly by altering the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes.

基于CMIP6模式的东南亚极端降水未来预估及热动力成因研究

本文利用26个CMIP6全球气候模式,研究了21世纪末东南亚极端降水事件的变化,通过分解水汽收支方程分析降水变化的动力和热力效应。结果表明,21世纪末(2071—2100年)相对历史参考期(1985—2014年),东南亚大部分地区的气候态降水、极端降水事件的发生频率和强度均显著增加。除大于10 mm降水日数(R10mm)外,其他极端降水指数在SSP5-8.5情景下的变化幅度比SSP2-4.5情景更大。其中强降水量贡献率(R95pTOT)的增长幅度最大,在SSP2-4.5(SSP5-8.5)情景下增加22%(41%)。极端降水变化对气候变暖的响应存在明显的区域性差异。加里曼丹岛将出现更短时集中的极端降水。苏门答腊岛南部的极端降水频率略有减小,且可能发生较强的持续性干旱事件。进一步分析水汽收支方程可知,SSP2-4.5(SSP5-8.5)情景下,热力作用项对P-E(降水减蒸发)的变化贡献为65%(64%),并且模式间一致性更高。而动力作用项对P-E的变化呈抵消趋势,贡献为35%(36%)。这说明相比大尺度环流变化,大气比湿变化引起的水汽辐合是未来东南亚降水量增多的主要因子。

基于SHAW模型的祁连山浅山区荒漠草地土壤水热动态模拟研究

祁连山是我国重要的生态安全屏障,其浅山区是连接高寒山区与绿洲平原的过渡地带,土壤水热变化显著影响该区生态系统与水文过程的相互作用。本文利用祁连山浅山区荒漠草地的观测资料,基于SHAW模型对土壤水热动态进行了模拟和分析,利用控制变量法量化了不同冻融阶段气温和降水变化对土壤温度和水分的影响。结果表明:模型模拟的各层土壤温度纳什效率系数(NSE)均大于0.95,且土层越深模拟效果越好,模型模拟的土壤水分总体上能反映土壤水分的动态变化和浅层土壤中降水的入渗过程。不同冻融阶段土壤水热分布的剖面特征差异明显,总体而言,土壤温度波动随深度逐渐变小,而土壤水分随深度逐渐升高,浅层土壤水热过程对气象要素变化更敏感。情景分析表明,气温每升高1.0℃,土壤冻结发展期、完全冻结期和融化发展期分别缩短1.4 d、0.8 d和2.2 d,表层和深层土壤温度分别升高0.6℃和0.1℃,土壤温度升高的幅度随深度减小。降水的变化对完全融化期0.20~1.20 m的土壤水分影响最显著,对融化发展期和冻结发展期的影响体现在0.20~0.60 m的浅层土壤,而对完全冻结期的土壤未冻水含量基本没有影响。研究结果可为气候变化背景下祁连山浅山区脆弱生态系统的稳定性维持提供参考。