Study of anisotropic variation of cosmic rays intensity with solar activity

The annual average values of amplitudes and phases of first two harmonics of cosmic ray anisotropy have been derived by using the harmonic analysis technique for the period 1989 to 2004, which covers mostly the major period of solar cycles 22 and 23. In this paper we have taken the pressure corrected hourly data for Kiel neutron monitor station (cut off rigidity ≈ 2.29 GV) to derive the harmonic component of cosmic ray daily variation and compared with the data of Halekala neutron monitor (cut off rigidity ≈ 13.2 GV) for the period 1991 to 2004. From the analysis it has been concluded that the diurnal amplitude and phase of daily variation of cosmic rays have been found to be correlated with solar activity. However, the semi-diurnal amplitude and phase are inversely correlated with solar activity for both the stations.

On the Relationship between Meteorological Variables, Dst Index, Solar Wind Speed, Solar Radio Flux, and Cosmic Rays and COVID-19 Cases

This study aims to determine the influential role of the meteorological, solar, and geophysical factors and cosmic rays on the transmission of COVID-19 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The meteorological factors were air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The solar radio flux, Dst index, and solar wind speed were utilized as representatives of the solar and geophysical variables. The association between these variables and the COVID-19 pandemic cases from 3 April 2020 to 1 August 2021 was investigated using the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests. The obtained results showed that the air temperature and average wind speed are positively associated with the daily number of reported COVID-19 cases. On the other hand, the mean values of relative humidity and atmospheric pressure are inversely correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases in Riyadh. Moreover, the results showed that the Dst index and cosmic rays are positively correlated with the COVID-19 cases. Contrarily, solar wind speed and radio flux at 10.7 cm have negative correlations with the COVID-19 cases. The obtained results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of the virus against meteorological, solar, and geophysical variables and can be considered as a useful supplement to help national and international organizations and healthcare policymakers in the process of strategizing to combat COVID-19.

Ionization of protoplanetary disks by galactic cosmic rays,solar protons,and supernova remnants

Galactic cosmic rays and solar protons ionize the present terrestrial atmosphere,and the air showers are simulated by well-tested Monte-Carlo simulations,such as PHITS code.We use the latest version of PHITS to evaluate the possible ionization of protoplanetary disks by galactic cosmic rays（GCRs）,solar protons,and by supernova remnants.The attenuation length of GCR ionization is updated as 118 g cm^-2,which is approximately 20% larger than the popular value.Hard and soft possible spectra of solar protons give comparable and 20% smaller attenuation lengths compared with those from standard GCR spectra,respectively,while the attenuation length is approximately 10% larger for supernova remnants.Further,all of the attenuation lengths become 10% larger in the compound gas of cosmic abundance,e.g.128 g cm^-2 for GCRs,which can affect the minimum estimate of the size of dead zones in protoplanetary disks when the incident flux is unusually high.

Testing the effect of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic storm indices on Galactic cosmic ray flux variation with automatically-selected Forbush decreases

Forbush decrease(FD),discovered by Scott E.Forbush about 80 years ago,is referred to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in Galactic cosmic ray(GCR)flux,presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field(IMF).It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appears to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships.The method of selection and validation of FD events is very important to cosmic ray(CR)scientists.We have deployed new computer software to determine the amplitude and timing of FDs from daily-averaged CR data at Oulu Neutron Monitor station.The code selected 230 FDs between 1998 and 2002.In an attempt to validate the new FD automated catalog,the relationship between the amplitude of FDs,and IMF,solar wind speed(SWS)and geomagnetic storm indices(Dst,kp,ap)is tested here.A two-dimensional regression analysis indicates significant linear relationship between large FDs(CR(%)≤-3)and solar wind data and geomagnetic storm indices in the present sample.The implications of the relationship among these parameters are discussed.

Investigation of the relation between space-weather parameters and Forbush decreases automatically selected from Moscow and Apatity cosmic ray stations during solar cycle 23

We present the results of an investigation of the relation between space-weather parameters and cosmic ray(CR)intensity modulation using algorithm-selected Forbush decreases(FDs)from Moscow(MOSC)and Apatity(APTY)neutron monitor(NM)stations during solar cycle 23.Our FD location program detected 408 and 383 FDs from MOSC and APTY NM stations respectively.A coincident computer code employed in this work detected 229 FDs that were observed at the same Universal Time(UT)at the two stations.Out of the 229 simultaneous FDs,we formed a subset of 139 large FDs(%)≤-4 at the MOSC station.We performed a two-dimensional regression analysis between the FD magnitudes and the space-weather data on the two samples.We find that there were significant space-weather disturbances at the time of the CR flux depressions.The correlation between the space-weather parameters and decreases in galactic cosmic ray(GCR)intensity at the two NM stations is statistically significant.The implications of the present space-weather data on CR intensity depressions are highlighted.

Twenty years study of solar, geomagnetic, cosmic ray activity links with monthly deaths number (n-850304)

The interrelationship between human life and death at the end of the XX and beginning of the XXI centuries is the topic of this study. The aim of the study is to study links between time, Solar (SA), Geomagnetic (GMA) and Cosmic Ray (CRA) (Neutron) activity and monthly deaths distribution from all and six subgroups of death causes in years 1990-2009 for ad-ditional clarification of the role of exogenic factors in human homeostasis. Methods and patients: 850304 deaths (44657 men, 400647 woman) and 6 subgroups were studied in 240 consecutive months in the Re-public of Lithuania in relation to the months of year (1 - 12), 4 indices of SA (Sunspot number and Solar Flux), 3 indices of GMA (planetary and regional for the Middle Latitudes), and CRA described by Neutron activity on the Earth's surface-remains of crushed atoms in the high space levels and measured by Imp/min. The cosmophysical data came from Space Science Institutions in the USA, Russia and Finland. Statistical analysis of the results for monthly comparison are presented. Results: It was a significant and inverse relationship of monthly deaths number for both gender with CRA and SA, less with GMA. It was a significant drop of deaths from IHD and sui-cides. Oncology deaths also show similarity in their timing with other groups. A strong inverse rela-tionship was seen in monthly death number from IHD and Stroke. (r = -0.76, p < 0.0001), woman show more seasonality in death's distribution. Most deaths show annual rhythm with acrophase in February. Only Suicide pick appears in the summer months. Conclusion: at the beginning of the XXI century, in addition to accepted risk factors, environmental physical activity is linked to timing of death. Cosmic Ray (Neutron) activity is one of the main regulators of this relationship. Stroke related deaths are becoming a more prominent cause in the collection of car-diovascular deaths. Suicide related deaths show a drop, possibly related to a massive trend for immi-gration in the high risk group of the population. The precise mechanism of action of the studied physical factors needs additional studies.

Cosmic Ray Associated with Coronal Index and Solar Flare Index during Solar Cycle 22 - 23

We study the relation between monthly average counting rates of the cosmic ray intensity (CRI) observed at Moscow Neutron Monitoring Station, solar flare index (SFI) and coronal index during the solar cycles 22 and 23, for the period 1986-2008. The long-term behaviour of various solar activity parameters: sunspot numbers (SSN), solar flare index (Hα flare index), coronal index (CI) in relation to the duration of solar cycles 22 and 23 is examined. We find that the correlation coefficient of CRI with the coronal index as well as Hα flare index is relatively large anti-correlation during solar cycle 22. However, the monthly mean values of sunspot number, Hα flare index, and coronal index are well positively correlated with each other. We have analyzed the statistical analysis of the above parameters using of linear model and second order polynomial fits model.

Absence of the Impact of the Flux of Cosmic Rays and the Cloud Cover on the Energy Balance of the Earth

The energy of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth,as well as the thermal radiation of the Earth’s surface,which is released to the space through the atmospheric transparency window,depends on variations of the area of the cloud cover.Svensmark et al.suggest that the increase in the area of the cloud cover in the lower atmosphere,presumably caused by an increase in the flux of galactic cosmic rays during the quasi-bicentennial minimum of solar activity,results only in an increase in the fraction of the solar radiation reflected back to the space and weakens the flux of the solar radiation that reached the Earth surface.It is suggested,without any corresponding calculations of the variations of the average annual energy balance of the EarthЕ,that the consequences will include only a deficit of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth and a cooling of the climate up to the onset of the Little Ice Age.These suggestions ignore simultaneous impact of the opposite aspects of the increase in the area of the cloud cover on the climate warming.The latter will result from a decrease in the power of thermal radiation of the Earth’s surface released to the space,and also in the power of the solar radiation reflected from the Earth’s surface,due to the increase in their absorption and reflection back to the surface.A substantial strengthening in the greenhouse effect and the narrowing of the atmospheric transparency window will also occur.Here,we estimate the impact of all aspects of possible long-term 2%growth of the cloud cover area in the lower atmosphere byЕ.We found that an increase in the cloud cover area in the lower atmosphere will result simultaneously both in the decrease and in the increase in the temperature,which will virtually compensate each other,while the energy balance of the Earth E before and after the increase in the cloud cover area by 2%will stay essentially the same:E1-E0≈0.

Variations in Solar Cycles 22, 23 &24 and Their Effect on Earth’s Climate

In the present work, the study of influence of solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity on Earth’s climate during solar cycles 22, 23 and 24 has been done. The change in Earth’s climate, specifically the change in the global mean temperature has been associated with the variation of some solar activity indices, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity indices in the period of 1986-2014 (Till Dec.). The important solar indices that are total solar irradiance (TSI), Sunspot Number (SSN), F10.7 index, Cosmic Ray Intensity (CRI) Kiel (NM), geomagnetic activity indices Auroral Electrojet Index (AE) and aa index, have been presented. The study of the Earth’s climate in relationship with solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity has been analysed with variations and correlations. The variations of SSN with CRI are in anti-phase;SSN with F10.7, SSN with TSI, SSN with AE, SSN with aa are in same phase. The correlation of SSN with CRI is strongly negatively correlated;SSN with F10.7, SSN with TSI is strongly positively and SSN with AE, SSN with aa positively correlated to averaging solar cycles 22, 23 and 24. The Earth’s climate will be affected by the solar activity, cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic activity.

Comparative study of solar cycles 22 to 24 in relation to solar output variability

The rate of increase in solar activity at the initiation of solar cycle 22 had led the activity during the solar maximum years 1990-1991, be the most severe of any period during the space age. Solar cycle 23 started in May 1996 and ended in December 2008. Total time period of this solar cycle is 12.6 years. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 120.8 and minimum was 1.7. It is apparent that solar cycle 23 is a long one. Solar cycle 24 (initiated in December 2008) seems to be weak, which will have a slow ramp up, much slower than the late 19th century cycles used for comparison. In the present work, we have considered Sunspot number (Rz) as an index of solar activity, which shows a predominant 11 year cycle. The strength of the solar cycle makes a huge difference to satellite operators. Each solar peak heats and expands the outer atmosphere. The strength of the solar-cycle length, annual average and temperature correlation enables solar cycle length to be used as a climate predictor tool.

Testing the Empirical Relationship between Forbush Decreases and Cosmic Ray Diurnal Anisotropy

The abrupt aperiodic modulation of cosmic ray(CR)flux intensity,often referred to as Forbush decrease(FD),plays a significant role in our understanding of the Sun-Earth electrodynamics.Accurate and precise determinations of FD magnitude and timing are among the intractable problems in FD-based analysis.FD identification is complicated by CR diurnal anisotropy.CR anisotropy can increase or reduce the number and amplitude of FDs.It is therefore important to remove its contributions from CR raw data before FD identification.Recently,an attempt was made,using a combination of the Fourier transform technique and FD-location machine,to address this.Thus,two FD catalogs and amplitude diurnal variation(ADV)were calculated from filtered(FD1 and ADV)and raw(FD2)CR data.In the current work,we test the empirical relationship between FD1,FD2,ADV and solar-geophysical characteristics.Our analysis shows that two types of magnetic fields-interplanetary and geomagnetic(Dst)-govern the evolution of CR flux intensity reductions.

Investigation of a Possible Link between Solar Activity and Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Rainfall Patterns

In this study, annual, quarterly, and monthly mean precipitation data in Saudi Arabia were correlated with sunspot number (SSN) and galactic cosmic ray (CR) flux over 35 years (1985-2019). The results show that the strength, magnitude, proportion and statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation and the two variables varied by season and month. We find that mean annual precipitation in Saudi Arabia, from May to November, and summer and autumn are correlated with cosmic rays and inversely correlated with SSN. Correlations of varying intensities and scales were found during the remaining months and during winter and spring. The relationships between the rainfall and SSN and CR for each solar cycle were investigated and showed that for all three cycles, the annual rainfall over Saudi Arabia has a positive correlation with CR. Different results were obtained when the seasonal rainfall data correlated with the SSNs and CRs during each cycle. The results obtained, in terms of their strength and magnitude, are affected by terrestrial and extra-terrestrial factors. These factors have been briefly presented and discussed. These findings represent a step towards understanding the possible role of solar activity in climate change for future meteorological phenomenon forecasting, even if the physical mechanism is still poorly quantified.

Propagation model of high-energy solar cosmic rays in interplanetary space and Green function

Based on main observational characteristics of solar flare particle transport in the coronal, a mathematical description of coronal transport is proposed. A model is presented for solar cosmic\|ray propagation in solar\|terrestrial space of infinite, homogeneous orthotropic medium. A Green function to the propagation equation with source is found. The integral solution to the propagation equation with the source, as well as the analytical solution to the equation for a pulse point source, is obtained by using the Green function in the medium.

火星表面辐射环境分析

火星表面没有全球性磁场保护,存在较强的辐射环境。文章基于Mars-GRAM模型和MCD模型的火星大气数据、“海盗号”(Viking Lander 1/2)及“探路者号”(Pathfinder)等测量得到的火星土壤数据、银河宇宙射线环境(CREME 96模型)以及太阳宇宙射线环境(1989年10月太阳事件),采用基于GEANT4的粒子输运方法,分析得到了火星表面辐射环境;并与“好奇号”火星车辐射评价探测器(Radiation Assessment Detector,RAD)实测值进行了比较。结果显示:次级伽马光子和中子通量分析值与实测值偏差不超过50%,辐射剂量分析值与实测值偏差不超过5%。火星表面辐射环境可用于分析航天员在不同位置处遭遇的人体剂量,作为载人火星任务着陆点数据参考。

An ACE/CRIS-observation-based Galactic Cosmic Rays heavy nuclei spectra model Ⅱ

An observation-based Galactic Cosmic Ray(GCR)spectral model for heavy nuclei is developed.Zhao and Qin[J.Geophys.Res.Space Phys.118,1837(2013)]proposed an empirical elemental GCR spectra model for nuclear charge 5≤z≤28 over the energy range^30 to 500 Me V/nuc,which is proved to be successful in predicting yearly averaged GCR heavy nuclei spectra.Based on the latest highly statistically precise measurements from ACE/CRIS,a further elemental GCR model with monthly averaged spectra is presented.The model can reproduce the past and predict the future GCR intensity monthly by correlating model parameters with the continuous sunspot number(SSN)record.The effects of solar activity on GCR modulation are considered separately for odd and even solar cycles.Compared with other comprehensive GCR models,our modeling results are satisfyingly consistent with the GCR spectral measurements from ACE/SIS and IMP-8,and have comparable prediction accuracy as the Badhwar&O’Neill 2014 model.A detailed error analysis is also provided.Finally,the GCR carbon and iron nuclei fluxes for the subsequent two solar cycles(SC 25 and 26)are predicted and they show a potential trend in reduced flux amplitude,which is suspected to be relevant to possible weak solar cycles.

Debates on the Causes of Global Warming

The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC(NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are reviewed.IPCC holds that today's global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natural variability,which is emphasized by NIPCC.The surface temperature observations since the mid-20th century support the hypothesis of anthropogenic impact,but for the last one hundred years or so,natural forcings such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and thermohaline circulation variations also have had great influences on the Earth's climate,especially on inter-decadal timescales.In addition,evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period(MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are closely associated with the solar activity over the past 1 thousand years.Over the past 10 thousand years, the North Atlantic cold events and solar activity are closely correlated.Nevertheless,the physical mechanisms of the solar-climate variability and interrelation are not well understood,yet.Notably,a prevailing view recently indicates that galactic cosmic rays may result in climatic cooling through modulating global low cloud cover.However,its process and mechanism need to be further investigated.

Monthly admissions for heart failure (HF)— Environmental links

In recent years the role of HF in the outcomes, cost of treatment in cardiology is raising. Concomitantly a number of studies were published demonstrating connections of many cardiac events with Space Weather Activity-Solar, Geomagnetic, Cosmic Ray (Neutron) activity levels. The aim of this study was to study links of timing of hospital admissions for HF with season and space weather components. Patients and Methods: monthly admissions of male and female patients for HF in two hospitals of Rabin Medical Center for years 2000-2012 were the subject of the study. 76,601 patient were included, 42,293 men, 34,308 woman. The cosmophysical data from USA, Russia and Finland were used. Results: Monthly average number of admissions for HF: 491.0 ± 82.4, 271.1 ± 46.75 for men and 219.9 ± 39.8 for woman. Gender admissions strongly correlated. Monthly admission for HF number differed by 2.2 - 2.5 times. Minimal admissions were in August, September;maximal—in January, February, December and March (according to numbers). It was a significant inverse correlation of monthly HF admissions with monthly solar activity and GMA indices and correlation with CRA (neutron) activity. Conclusion: Monthly admissions number for HF is fluctuated by season of the year, depending on gender and related to monthly solar and Cosmic Ray (Neutron) activity level. Gender differences in HF exacerbation may be a component explaining gender differences in longevity.

Days of “Zero” level geomagnetic activity accompanied by the high neutron activity and dynamics of some medical events—Antipodes to geomagnetic storms

The links of many medical-biological events with high levels of geomagnetic activity (GMA) are widely discussed. In recent years, several medical phenomena were described in inverse distribution by time with GMA. Also a concurrent to GMA and solar activity force-cosmic ray activity (CRA) and closely related high energy neutron and proton fluxes are studied as a forces dominating at low GMA and solar activity in relation to considered medical events. The aim of this study was to explore the distribution of some important medical events on days with “Zero” GMA levels, accompanied by high CRA (neutron activity). Medical event data of the Grand Baku region (more than 3 mln inhabitants), Azerbaijan, with daily distribution on the time 1 Dec. 2002-31 Dec. 2007 was compared to daily GMA Kp indices in general (Kp > 0, 1837 days) and 34 days daily GMA indices Kp = 0. Daily CRA data was also compared using neutron monitoring data from two stations. Daily averaged data and their standard deviations on the mentioned GMA levels were compared and statistical significance was established. Results revealed a significant rise in the number of emergencies (n = 1,567,576) and total deaths number (n = 46,360) at the days of “Zero” GMA level. These days were accompanied by significant rise of CRA (neutron activity). For Sudden Cardiac Deaths (SCD, n = 1615) and cerebral stroke (CVA, n =10,054) the increase achieved strong trend to significance level. Acute Myocardial Infarction occurrence (morbidity) and trauma were also absolutely more registered at days with “Zero” GMA level, despite the small number of such days. The average Infection numbers show an inverse relationship with absolutely high registry at the “Zero” GMA level days. Study linking environmental physical activity levels and the human medical data shows that geomagnetic field variations accompanied by the increased level of cosmic ray activity, can have either direct or indirect adverse effects on human health and physiology, even when the magnitude of the geomagnetic field disturbance is extremely small or even is equal to zero. On days of “Zero” daily Kp indices describing Geomagnetic Activity, accompanied by high Cosmic Ray Activity (neutron activity), more medical emergencies and total death number (daily) occurred. Sudden Cardiac Deaths and Cerebral Stroke numbers show a strong trend to significant rise. Absolute increase of number of Acute Myocardial Infarction and less Infections, not achieving statistical significance, was also observed. These results are additional data for considering Cosmic Ray Activity (neutron activity) as an additional factor involved in time distribution of human medical events.

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in context with the paradigm―month of birth and longevity

Time and environmental physical activity are involved in timing of many medical events. In a recent study published by the National Academy of Science, USA it was shown that month of birth is related to longevity. The aim of this study was to check the month of birth distribution in a great group of AMI patients of both gender, one of the great killers in the developed countries, to check the mentioned paradigm of month of birth and longevity. Methods & Patients: Patients admitted to Cardiology Departments of a tertiary University Hospital in Kaunas, Lithuania with AMI at years 1990-2010 (n-22047) were studied. Month of birth of these patients, total and both gender were checked. Monthly, quarterly and trimester comparison were done. Statistical differences established using t-Student test and distribution by percents of the yearly months of birth. Results: It was a significant difference in the month of birth of the studied AMI population. January and first quarter and trimester born patients were more often in the studied AMI patients group. The higher morbidity by Cardiovascular diseases can be a significant ingredient in the structure of population longevity. Possible mechanisms explaining our findings are discussed. Conclusion: In the AMI population people born in January, first quarter or trimester of the year are dominating in both gender groups. The results of this study can be an additional confirmation of the paradigm about links between month of birth and longevity.

Gender and environment: general and monthly gender distribution of newborns and cosmophysical parameters

Recent publications have described a relationship between fluctuations in environmental physical activity and several aspects of fetal development. This study explored the possible effects of cosmophysical parameters on newborn gender, overall and by maternal age. The gender distribution of 123,368 infants born over a 189-month period (November 1993–July 2009) was analyzed against levels of solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray activity at the time of conception. The cohort was then divided into three groups by maternal age ( 35 years) for further analysis. Pearson correlation coefficients and their probabilities were calculated, and chi-square test was applied, as necessary. The physical data were derived from space science centers in the USA, Russia, and Finland. The results showed that the male/female ratio for the whole cohort over the study period was 1.06. However, on monthly analysis, there was a significant male predominance in most months, with a male/female ratio of up to 4. Younger mothers (< 28 years) gave birth to significantly more boys than older mothers. The gender distribution in the three maternal age groups was partially linked to the different physical factors. These findings suggest that environmental physical activity in the month of conception may play a role in newborn gender. Further study is needed to determine the mechanism underlying this effect.