By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ej...By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.展开更多
We study the relation between monthly average counting rates of the cosmic ray intensity (CRI) observed at Moscow Neutron Monitoring Station, solar flare index (SFI) and coronal index during the solar cycles 22 and 23...We study the relation between monthly average counting rates of the cosmic ray intensity (CRI) observed at Moscow Neutron Monitoring Station, solar flare index (SFI) and coronal index during the solar cycles 22 and 23, for the period 1986-2008. The long-term behaviour of various solar activity parameters: sunspot numbers (SSN), solar flare index (Hα flare index), coronal index (CI) in relation to the duration of solar cycles 22 and 23 is examined. We find that the correlation coefficient of CRI with the coronal index as well as Hα flare index is relatively large anti-correlation during solar cycle 22. However, the monthly mean values of sunspot number, Hα flare index, and coronal index are well positively correlated with each other. We have analyzed the statistical analysis of the above parameters using of linear model and second order polynomial fits model.展开更多
It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol...It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.展开更多
Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number fr...Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dst≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz〈-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.展开更多
The King Abdul Aziz University (KAU) solar observations of Sunspot on daily passes from 1981 to 2009 are used to investigate the North-South asymmetry variation of the sunspot numbers and its area. We found that the a...The King Abdul Aziz University (KAU) solar observations of Sunspot on daily passes from 1981 to 2009 are used to investigate the North-South asymmetry variation of the sunspot numbers and its area. We found that the asymmetry dominated to be southern during the last two solar cycles, which evidently exists following a long-term characteristic time scale. Our results were in compliance with the global asymmetry.展开更多
Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions ...Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).展开更多
An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, th...An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.展开更多
The climatic changes associated with solar variability are largely caused by variations in total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance with solar activity. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is ...The climatic changes associated with solar variability are largely caused by variations in total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance with solar activity. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atomspheric structure. The variations in solar spectrum depend on the varied solar spots. Recently, evidence for a strong effect of solar activity on terrestrial isolation on ground-based measurements carried out by the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Egypt (lat. 29?52'N and long. 31?20'E) during (1990-2000) were presented. Specifically, a strong increase of terrestrial isolation with sunspot number as well as a decline of the solar spectrum with solar activity was reported. Daily measurements of the solar radiation between 280 nm and 2800 nm were made by Eppley Pyranometer and Pyrheliometer instruments. The decreasing at the range 280 - 530 nm and 530 - 630 nm are represented less than 50% of direct solar radiation and the stability of at the range 630 - 695 nm and 695 - 2800 nm it mean that;some of difference radiation is appear in diffused radiation which allow to height of the temperature as much as the largest associated with significance as it appears from the curves of relative humidity.展开更多
The sunspot number is becoming an increasingly insufficiently reliable parameter for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the prolonged and deep minimum of the 23rd solar cycle. Moreover, t...The sunspot number is becoming an increasingly insufficiently reliable parameter for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the prolonged and deep minimum of the 23rd solar cycle. Moreover, the sunspot number does not quantitatively reflect physical processes and is a practically conventional qualitative “noisy” parameter. Introduction of an additional criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle is becoming particularly topical due to the upcoming common descent of the level of the 2-secular cycle, when the amplitude of sunspot activity variation will sequentially decrease during several subsequent cycles (after the 23rd cycle). We propose the adoption of the smoothed minimal level of the total solar irradiance (TSI) as an additional physically justified criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity. The minimal level of the monthly average values of the TSI smoothed for 13 months when the last two of its values exceed the preceding value at the point of minimum will additionally indicate the time of minimum of a cycle. The additional criterion has been successfully used for the determination of the time of minima of the preceding 21st and 22nd cycles.展开更多
Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper, periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly m...Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper, periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean val- ues of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicat- ing that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31, and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statisti- cally significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are sta- tistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the con- sidered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indi- ces, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail.展开更多
The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified ...The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified in this paper. Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24, and as- suming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months, solar cycles 2, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24. The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups. The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11, 17, 20 and 23. Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained, respectively, for the two similar cycle groups. No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles. Consid- ering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the pre- dictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24, a date calibration is done for the ob- tained time profiles, and thus, SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24, from October 2007 to April 2018, are predicted.展开更多
The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions ...The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions according to their X ray classes, durations and intensities are constructed. The evolution of these distributions in solar cycle as well as from cycle to cycle is studied. The statistical analysis of the flare characteristics is made. There was confirmed the result of more frequent occurrence for powerful flares in cycle 21 decline phase.展开更多
In this note, we define firstly a compositive parameter as an index describing the level of solar activity in a solar cycle. The parameter is derived from a combination of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number with...In this note, we define firstly a compositive parameter as an index describing the level of solar activity in a solar cycle. The parameter is derived from a combination of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number with the fluctuation of the associated monthly mean sunspot numbers to the smoothed one. Then, a method is developed for estimating the time of the appearance of a solar maximum based on the conception of similar cycles. An application ofthe method to the 23rd solar cycle shows that the maximum of the cycle should have appeared in the period from April to August 2000, and the descending phase of Cycle 23 has come.展开更多
In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum....In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum. In total, 180 solar radio bursts, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. We compare our data series with other similar data sets. A good correlation can be found between the data series. It is concluded that one can conduct scientifically significant solar radio observations with a low cost instrument as the one presented in this paper.展开更多
In the present work,we study the time evolution,significance of the N-S asymmetry excesses presented as a function of the solar cycle and prominent rotational periods(~27 d)separately for the northern and southern hem...In the present work,we study the time evolution,significance of the N-S asymmetry excesses presented as a function of the solar cycle and prominent rotational periods(~27 d)separately for the northern and southern hemispheres.We have investigated short-term variations of the hemispheric solar activity(sunspot numbers and sunspot areas)during the time period 2010-2015,which covers the ascending and the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.We have implemented the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and continuous wavelet transform power spectrum techniques to study the time evolution and dominant rotational periods separately for the northern and southern hemispheres,and whole solar disk.Our results showed that the northern hemisphere exhibited longer solar synodic periods than the southern hemisphere,indicating that the northern hemisphere has a lower rotation rate.Moreover,the northern hemisphere was found to be dominant before transferring to the southern hemisphere during mid-2013.Also,the sunspot areas clearly demonstrated a two-peak structure of solar activity in the northern and southern hemispheres respectively during 2012 and 2014.The statistical significance of the southern hemisphere affirmed enhanced excess during the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.展开更多
In this review, we discuss whether the present solar dynamo models can be extrapolated to explain various aspects of stellar activity. We begin with a summary of the following kinds of data for solar-like stars:(i) da...In this review, we discuss whether the present solar dynamo models can be extrapolated to explain various aspects of stellar activity. We begin with a summary of the following kinds of data for solar-like stars:(i) data pertaining to stellar cycles from Ca H/K emission over many years;(ii) X-ray data indicating hot coronal activity;(iii) starspot data(especially about giant polar spots); and(iv) data pertaining to stellar superflares. Then we describe the current status of solar dynamo modelling—giving an introduction to the flux transport dynamo model, the currently favoured model for the solar cycle. While an extrapolation of this model to solar-like stars can explain some aspects of observational data, some other aspects of the data still remain to be theoretically explained. It is not clear right now whether we need a different kind of dynamo mechanism for stars having giant starspots or producing very strong superflares.展开更多
In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to ap...In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.展开更多
In this paper, we present an overview of radio signatures of sunspot NOAA 12192 measured with various instruments with frequencies of 37 GHz, 11.2 GHz and 200 - 400 MHz at Aalto University Metsahovi Radio Observatory ...In this paper, we present an overview of radio signatures of sunspot NOAA 12192 measured with various instruments with frequencies of 37 GHz, 11.2 GHz and 200 - 400 MHz at Aalto University Metsahovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during October 20 - 29, 2014. In total, 12 solar radio bursts at 11.2 GHz and 8 at 200 - 400 MHz, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. Radio brightening was captured in several solar radio maps. NOAA 12192 is the largest observed sunspot during solar cycle 24. We show that this exceptional radio brightening belongs to the strongest category including less than 5% of radio brightenings ever measured at MRO.展开更多
文摘By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.
文摘We study the relation between monthly average counting rates of the cosmic ray intensity (CRI) observed at Moscow Neutron Monitoring Station, solar flare index (SFI) and coronal index during the solar cycles 22 and 23, for the period 1986-2008. The long-term behaviour of various solar activity parameters: sunspot numbers (SSN), solar flare index (Hα flare index), coronal index (CI) in relation to the duration of solar cycles 22 and 23 is examined. We find that the correlation coefficient of CRI with the coronal index as well as Hα flare index is relatively large anti-correlation during solar cycle 22. However, the monthly mean values of sunspot number, Hα flare index, and coronal index are well positively correlated with each other. We have analyzed the statistical analysis of the above parameters using of linear model and second order polynomial fits model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant numbers U2031202,U1731124 and U1531247the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Grant number 2014FY120300the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant number XXH13505-04。
文摘It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.
基金supported by the project Environment Building for S&T Industries (2005DKA64000)
文摘Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dst≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz〈-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.
文摘The King Abdul Aziz University (KAU) solar observations of Sunspot on daily passes from 1981 to 2009 are used to investigate the North-South asymmetry variation of the sunspot numbers and its area. We found that the asymmetry dominated to be southern during the last two solar cycles, which evidently exists following a long-term characteristic time scale. Our results were in compliance with the global asymmetry.
基金supported by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project(project number Z181100002918004)the Equipment Pre-research Project(project number 30505020418)
文摘Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).
基金supported by the Young Researcher Grant of National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2011CB811406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10733020, 10921303, 11003026 and 11078010)
文摘An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.
文摘The climatic changes associated with solar variability are largely caused by variations in total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance with solar activity. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atomspheric structure. The variations in solar spectrum depend on the varied solar spots. Recently, evidence for a strong effect of solar activity on terrestrial isolation on ground-based measurements carried out by the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Egypt (lat. 29?52'N and long. 31?20'E) during (1990-2000) were presented. Specifically, a strong increase of terrestrial isolation with sunspot number as well as a decline of the solar spectrum with solar activity was reported. Daily measurements of the solar radiation between 280 nm and 2800 nm were made by Eppley Pyranometer and Pyrheliometer instruments. The decreasing at the range 280 - 530 nm and 530 - 630 nm are represented less than 50% of direct solar radiation and the stability of at the range 630 - 695 nm and 695 - 2800 nm it mean that;some of difference radiation is appear in diffused radiation which allow to height of the temperature as much as the largest associated with significance as it appears from the curves of relative humidity.
文摘The sunspot number is becoming an increasingly insufficiently reliable parameter for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the prolonged and deep minimum of the 23rd solar cycle. Moreover, the sunspot number does not quantitatively reflect physical processes and is a practically conventional qualitative “noisy” parameter. Introduction of an additional criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle is becoming particularly topical due to the upcoming common descent of the level of the 2-secular cycle, when the amplitude of sunspot activity variation will sequentially decrease during several subsequent cycles (after the 23rd cycle). We propose the adoption of the smoothed minimal level of the total solar irradiance (TSI) as an additional physically justified criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity. The minimal level of the monthly average values of the TSI smoothed for 13 months when the last two of its values exceed the preceding value at the point of minimum will additionally indicate the time of minimum of a cycle. The additional criterion has been successfully used for the determination of the time of minima of the preceding 21st and 22nd cycles.
文摘Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper, periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean val- ues of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicat- ing that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31, and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statisti- cally significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are sta- tistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the con- sidered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indi- ces, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10673017 and 10733020) the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB806307)
文摘The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified in this paper. Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24, and as- suming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months, solar cycles 2, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24. The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups. The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11, 17, 20 and 23. Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained, respectively, for the two similar cycle groups. No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles. Consid- ering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the pre- dictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24, a date calibration is done for the ob- tained time profiles, and thus, SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24, from October 2007 to April 2018, are predicted.
文摘The X ray (1-8?) flux data of the solar flares are analyzed. The data used were obtained on GOES satellite during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The total number of the flares is more than 33000. The flare distributions according to their X ray classes, durations and intensities are constructed. The evolution of these distributions in solar cycle as well as from cycle to cycle is studied. The statistical analysis of the flare characteristics is made. There was confirmed the result of more frequent occurrence for powerful flares in cycle 21 decline phase.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4999-0451 and 10073013) and Space Environment Forecast Center.
文摘In this note, we define firstly a compositive parameter as an index describing the level of solar activity in a solar cycle. The parameter is derived from a combination of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number with the fluctuation of the associated monthly mean sunspot numbers to the smoothed one. Then, a method is developed for estimating the time of the appearance of a solar maximum based on the conception of similar cycles. An application ofthe method to the 23rd solar cycle shows that the maximum of the cycle should have appeared in the period from April to August 2000, and the descending phase of Cycle 23 has come.
文摘In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum. In total, 180 solar radio bursts, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. We compare our data series with other similar data sets. A good correlation can be found between the data series. It is concluded that one can conduct scientifically significant solar radio observations with a low cost instrument as the one presented in this paper.
文摘In the present work,we study the time evolution,significance of the N-S asymmetry excesses presented as a function of the solar cycle and prominent rotational periods(~27 d)separately for the northern and southern hemispheres.We have investigated short-term variations of the hemispheric solar activity(sunspot numbers and sunspot areas)during the time period 2010-2015,which covers the ascending and the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.We have implemented the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and continuous wavelet transform power spectrum techniques to study the time evolution and dominant rotational periods separately for the northern and southern hemispheres,and whole solar disk.Our results showed that the northern hemisphere exhibited longer solar synodic periods than the southern hemisphere,indicating that the northern hemisphere has a lower rotation rate.Moreover,the northern hemisphere was found to be dominant before transferring to the southern hemisphere during mid-2013.Also,the sunspot areas clearly demonstrated a two-peak structure of solar activity in the northern and southern hemispheres respectively during 2012 and 2014.The statistical significance of the southern hemisphere affirmed enhanced excess during the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.
基金provided by the J C Bose Fellowship awarded by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India
文摘In this review, we discuss whether the present solar dynamo models can be extrapolated to explain various aspects of stellar activity. We begin with a summary of the following kinds of data for solar-like stars:(i) data pertaining to stellar cycles from Ca H/K emission over many years;(ii) X-ray data indicating hot coronal activity;(iii) starspot data(especially about giant polar spots); and(iv) data pertaining to stellar superflares. Then we describe the current status of solar dynamo modelling—giving an introduction to the flux transport dynamo model, the currently favoured model for the solar cycle. While an extrapolation of this model to solar-like stars can explain some aspects of observational data, some other aspects of the data still remain to be theoretically explained. It is not clear right now whether we need a different kind of dynamo mechanism for stars having giant starspots or producing very strong superflares.
文摘In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.
文摘In this paper, we present an overview of radio signatures of sunspot NOAA 12192 measured with various instruments with frequencies of 37 GHz, 11.2 GHz and 200 - 400 MHz at Aalto University Metsahovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during October 20 - 29, 2014. In total, 12 solar radio bursts at 11.2 GHz and 8 at 200 - 400 MHz, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. Radio brightening was captured in several solar radio maps. NOAA 12192 is the largest observed sunspot during solar cycle 24. We show that this exceptional radio brightening belongs to the strongest category including less than 5% of radio brightenings ever measured at MRO.