An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, th...An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.展开更多
By analyzing the observation data from Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station and historical data from year 1965 to 1990 gotten from National Astronomical Observatories/ Yunnan Observatory, the respond...By analyzing the observation data from Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station and historical data from year 1965 to 1990 gotten from National Astronomical Observatories/ Yunnan Observatory, the responding of debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine to Solar Proton Flare is studied. The following conclusion can be drawn. Solar Proton Flare, as one of most important astronomical factors, affects the activity of debris flow in Yunnan. Generally, from 1965 to 1990, the more active Solar Proton Flare is, the greater the probability of high frequency and large runoff of debris flow is. On the contrary, the less active Solar Proton Flare is, the greater the probability of low frequency, small runoff, and low sediment transport of debris flow is.展开更多
Galactic cosmic rays and solar protons ionize the present terrestrial atmosphere,and the air showers are simulated by well-tested Monte-Carlo simulations,such as PHITS code.We use the latest version of PHITS to evalua...Galactic cosmic rays and solar protons ionize the present terrestrial atmosphere,and the air showers are simulated by well-tested Monte-Carlo simulations,such as PHITS code.We use the latest version of PHITS to evaluate the possible ionization of protoplanetary disks by galactic cosmic rays（GCRs）,solar protons,and by supernova remnants.The attenuation length of GCR ionization is updated as 118 g cm^-2,which is approximately 20% larger than the popular value.Hard and soft possible spectra of solar protons give comparable and 20% smaller attenuation lengths compared with those from standard GCR spectra,respectively,while the attenuation length is approximately 10% larger for supernova remnants.Further,all of the attenuation lengths become 10% larger in the compound gas of cosmic abundance,e.g.128 g cm^-2 for GCRs,which can affect the minimum estimate of the size of dead zones in protoplanetary disks when the incident flux is unusually high.展开更多
A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies >10Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton ...A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies >10Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton events and their corresponding solar radio bursts at 15400, 8800, 4995, 2695, 1415, 606, 410 and 245 MHz. The statistical result shows that there is a close association between solar proton events and ≥3 solar radio bursts occurring at several frequencies, one or two days before. In particular, it is noteworthy that proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1-2 days by individual radio bursts and most of the radio bursts of solar flares occur at all eight frequencies. Those 245 MHz radio bursts associated with proton events have intense peak fluxes (up to 67000 sfu). Solar proton events are preceded 1 or 2 days by≥ 3 radio bursts at several frequencies and proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1 or 2 days by some individual radio bursts. These correlations may be used for providing short-term or medium-term prediction of solar proton events.展开更多
This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the...This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.展开更多
GaInP/GaAs/Ge triple-junction solar cells were irradiated with 50 keV and 100 keV protons at fluences of 5 × 10^10 cm^-2, 1 × 10^11 cm^-2,1 × 10^12 cm^-2, and 1 × 10^13 cm^-2. Their performance deg...GaInP/GaAs/Ge triple-junction solar cells were irradiated with 50 keV and 100 keV protons at fluences of 5 × 10^10 cm^-2, 1 × 10^11 cm^-2,1 × 10^12 cm^-2, and 1 × 10^13 cm^-2. Their performance degradation is analyzed using current-voltage characteristics and spectral response measurements, and then the changes in Isc, Voc, Pmax and the spectral response of the cells are observed as functions of proton irradiation fluence and energy. The results show that the spectral response of the top cell degrades more significantly than that of the middle cell, and 100 keV proton-induced degradation rates of Isc, Voc and Pmax are larger compared with 50 keV proton irradiation.展开更多
Analysis of solar-cell array panel (SAP) data from the Arase satellite orbiting in the inner magnetosphere showed a clear degradation of solar cells that could be attributed to trapped protons with energies greater th...Analysis of solar-cell array panel (SAP) data from the Arase satellite orbiting in the inner magnetosphere showed a clear degradation of solar cells that could be attributed to trapped protons with energies greater than 6 MeV. Proton fluence was determined based on variations in the open-circuit voltage (Voc) of the solar cells, which we compared with that expected based on various distribution models (AP8MAX, AP9 mean and CRRESPRO quiet) of trapped protons. We found a general agreement, confirming the major contribution of trapped protons to the degradation, as well as a slight difference in the fluence expected based on the model calculations. To minimize this difference, we slightly modified the models, and found that concentrating the energetic protons on the magnetic equator provided a better agreement. Our results indicate that >6 MeV protons also has the equatorial concentration as reported for >18 MeV protons from the Van Allen Probes observation, and are interpreted as two components of the trapped protons, i.e., those of solar energetic particle (SEP) origin have an anisotropic pitch-angle distribution and are confined near the magnetic equator.展开更多
We analyze the line data from solar flares to present evidence for the emission spectrum of the recently discussed electron-proton pairs at high temperatures. We also point out that since the pairing phenomenon provid...We analyze the line data from solar flares to present evidence for the emission spectrum of the recently discussed electron-proton pairs at high temperatures. We also point out that since the pairing phenomenon provides an additional source for these lines—the conventional source being the highly ionized high-Z atoms already existing in the solar atmosphere, we have a plausible explanation of the FIP effect.展开更多
基金supported by the Young Researcher Grant of National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2011CB811406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10733020, 10921303, 11003026 and 11078010)
文摘An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.
基金the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy Sciences (KZX3-SW-352)Frontier Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS (C3200307)
文摘By analyzing the observation data from Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station and historical data from year 1965 to 1990 gotten from National Astronomical Observatories/ Yunnan Observatory, the responding of debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine to Solar Proton Flare is studied. The following conclusion can be drawn. Solar Proton Flare, as one of most important astronomical factors, affects the activity of debris flow in Yunnan. Generally, from 1965 to 1990, the more active Solar Proton Flare is, the greater the probability of high frequency and large runoff of debris flow is. On the contrary, the less active Solar Proton Flare is, the greater the probability of low frequency, small runoff, and low sediment transport of debris flow is.
基金supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 26106006 and 15K13581
文摘Galactic cosmic rays and solar protons ionize the present terrestrial atmosphere,and the air showers are simulated by well-tested Monte-Carlo simulations,such as PHITS code.We use the latest version of PHITS to evaluate the possible ionization of protoplanetary disks by galactic cosmic rays（GCRs）,solar protons,and by supernova remnants.The attenuation length of GCR ionization is updated as 118 g cm^-2,which is approximately 20% larger than the popular value.Hard and soft possible spectra of solar protons give comparable and 20% smaller attenuation lengths compared with those from standard GCR spectra,respectively,while the attenuation length is approximately 10% larger for supernova remnants.Further,all of the attenuation lengths become 10% larger in the compound gas of cosmic abundance,e.g.128 g cm^-2 for GCRs,which can affect the minimum estimate of the size of dead zones in protoplanetary disks when the incident flux is unusually high.
文摘A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies >10Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton events and their corresponding solar radio bursts at 15400, 8800, 4995, 2695, 1415, 606, 410 and 245 MHz. The statistical result shows that there is a close association between solar proton events and ≥3 solar radio bursts occurring at several frequencies, one or two days before. In particular, it is noteworthy that proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1-2 days by individual radio bursts and most of the radio bursts of solar flares occur at all eight frequencies. Those 245 MHz radio bursts associated with proton events have intense peak fluxes (up to 67000 sfu). Solar proton events are preceded 1 or 2 days by≥ 3 radio bursts at several frequencies and proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1 or 2 days by some individual radio bursts. These correlations may be used for providing short-term or medium-term prediction of solar proton events.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10373017 & 5067702)
文摘This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.10675023,11075018)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘GaInP/GaAs/Ge triple-junction solar cells were irradiated with 50 keV and 100 keV protons at fluences of 5 × 10^10 cm^-2, 1 × 10^11 cm^-2,1 × 10^12 cm^-2, and 1 × 10^13 cm^-2. Their performance degradation is analyzed using current-voltage characteristics and spectral response measurements, and then the changes in Isc, Voc, Pmax and the spectral response of the cells are observed as functions of proton irradiation fluence and energy. The results show that the spectral response of the top cell degrades more significantly than that of the middle cell, and 100 keV proton-induced degradation rates of Isc, Voc and Pmax are larger compared with 50 keV proton irradiation.
文摘Analysis of solar-cell array panel (SAP) data from the Arase satellite orbiting in the inner magnetosphere showed a clear degradation of solar cells that could be attributed to trapped protons with energies greater than 6 MeV. Proton fluence was determined based on variations in the open-circuit voltage (Voc) of the solar cells, which we compared with that expected based on various distribution models (AP8MAX, AP9 mean and CRRESPRO quiet) of trapped protons. We found a general agreement, confirming the major contribution of trapped protons to the degradation, as well as a slight difference in the fluence expected based on the model calculations. To minimize this difference, we slightly modified the models, and found that concentrating the energetic protons on the magnetic equator provided a better agreement. Our results indicate that >6 MeV protons also has the equatorial concentration as reported for >18 MeV protons from the Van Allen Probes observation, and are interpreted as two components of the trapped protons, i.e., those of solar energetic particle (SEP) origin have an anisotropic pitch-angle distribution and are confined near the magnetic equator.
文摘We analyze the line data from solar flares to present evidence for the emission spectrum of the recently discussed electron-proton pairs at high temperatures. We also point out that since the pairing phenomenon provides an additional source for these lines—the conventional source being the highly ionized high-Z atoms already existing in the solar atmosphere, we have a plausible explanation of the FIP effect.
