The Impact of the Digital Economy on Financial Regulatory Costs: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Solow Growth Model

As a novel economic form,the digital economy is reshaping the financial regulatory landscape and significantly impacting regulatory costs.This paper incorporates the digital economy and financial regulatory costs into the classic Solow growth model,uncovering an inverted U-shaped relationship between them.A subsequent mechanism analysis explains the rationale behind this relationship.To empirically examine this relationship in China,the paper utilizes inter-provincial panel data from 2013 to 2021 and employs methodologies such as the two-way fixed effects and moderating effects models.These analyses have important implications for the sound and sustainable development of China’s financial industry.The findings indicate:(a)As China’s digital economy develops,its impact on financial regulatory costs follows an inverted U-shaped pattern,initially increasing and then declining.This conclusion remains valid after robustness tests.(b)The influence of the digital economy on regulatory costs depends on favorable external conditions.Specifically,the impact is more pronounced in regions and periods with better digital infrastructure and more abundant human capital.(c)Additionally,redundant resources moderate this impact,which can weaken the inverted U-shaped relationship.Our findings not only provide a theoretical foundation for understanding the impact of the digital economy on financial regulatory costs but also offer valuable policy insights for optimizing financial regulation in China.

人力资本对中国经济增长的影响——基于扩展Solow模型的研究

人力资本综合存量的度量方法有采用产出法分析,也有用投入法来分析;有从理论上推理,也有从经验数据上论证。分析方法有从教育人力资本角度出发,也有从健康人力资本角度出发。而绝大多数文献很少将教育和健康因素同时纳入考虑,仅分析其中一个方面无疑会带来测量的误差。若能同时考虑教育和健康,由新的度量方法产生新数据,由此带来新结论或是能对已有结论作进一步地论证,则是对以往文献研究的一个补充。因此,本文从四个维度建立新型人力资本综合测量体系,通过因子分析法对人力资本的综合水平进行了衡量。其中四个维度主要是指教育、劳动力再培训、身心健康和劳动力合理流动。在此基础上,把人力资本综合存量这一指标引入Solow模型中,构建扩展的Solow模型。利用扩展Solow模型,并结合最新人口统计数据进行实证分析,建立扩展的中国经济增长模型。研究发现人力资本和技术进步正逐渐成为我国经济增长的主要影响因素,劳动力数量对经济增长的影响在逐渐减弱。在我国经济发展的新阶段,如何在控制人口数量和提高经济发展水平方面协调各项工作成为当前的热点问题。为此我们针对教育投入,全民人口素质,中高端人才培养,经济增长方式创新等方面提出一些建议。

随机Solow经济增长模型及其解的性质

１９８７年诺贝尔（Ｎｏｂｅｌ）经济学奖获得者Ｓｏｌｏｗ教授，建立了确定性的经济增长模型（１９５６年）．它比较真实地描述了现实世界申的确定性的经济增长状况，然而对不确定性的现象，往往误差较大，甚至失效．本文把Ｓｏｌｏｗ模型扩展到随机情形，扩展了Ｂａｎａｃｈ压缩映像原理和不动点定理，获得了随机Ｓｏｌｏｗ模型主要方程和随机解的一些性质．

广义随机Solow经济增长模型

本文在文[1]的基础上进一步拓广了随机Solow经济增长模型．利用白噪声分析理论建立的广义随机Solow经济增长模型，将随机Solow模型推广到包含广义白噪声泛函及具有非可料扩散系数的情形，并且借助U—泛函方法表明了Picard迭代法在此仍十分有效．

基于变动人口的Solow模型

本文在 Solow模型框架中引入随时间变动人口增长率函数 ,并假定人口增长率最终趋于零 ,证明该模型的解是渐近稳定的 ,收敛于零人口增长率的经典 Solow模型的解 .通过引入变动人口增长率 ,讨论人口过渡时期和人口波动对经济增长的影响 ,并给出数值计算结果 .

The impact of bank lending on Palestine economic growth:an econometric analysis of time series data

Banking is an essential sector of Palestine’s economy.More credits provided by banks are considered to have a positive impact on economic growth so that the overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of bank lending on economic growth in Palestine.The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller to test for stationarity in the time series,The Johansen co-integration,Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model are employed to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables,and Granger causality test in order to determine the direction of causality.The study finds that a long run relationship exists among the variables and insignificant short run relationship.Also,the study findings show that there is unidirectional causality and runs from GDP to bank lending.The insignificant contribution of bank lending to GDP is attributed to the fact that banks are not highly interested in lending to the production sector of the economy due to the high level of risk.However,the primary empirical evidence reveals that bank lending doesn’t cause economic growth,but economic growth causes bank lending.

Solow模型的微分解析及其借鉴

本文分析了Solow模型的数学机理 ,揭示了影响经济增长的因素 ,并对模型的积极意义进行了探讨。

Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era

The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5th information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6th LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.

湖北省农业科技进步贡献率趋势、特征与提升研究

为了科学认识科技进步在农业经济发展中的作用,以湖北省为例,基于索洛增长模型和回归分析法,对2021年湖北省农业科技进步贡献率进行测算和分析,并对2022年和2023年湖北省农业科技进步贡献率进行预测。结果表明,湖北省农业科技进步贡献率持续保持上升趋势,显现出农业科技进步贡献率横向比较差距较大、农业物质投入边际报酬呈下降趋势、劳动力和土地要素的贡献率负增长等发展特征。为促进农业科技进步贡献率继续稳步增长,从农业科技转化投入、农业科技资源配置、人才队伍建设、农业技术推广体系和产业科技融入度5个方面提出了对策建议。

Bifurcation,Several Equilibria and Multiple Growth Paths in the Solow Model with Endogenous Demographic Transition

In this paper,the endogenous demographic transition function is integrated into the classical Solow model. It is proven that the differential equation which describes the model at least has a nonzero equilibrium. The differential equation has several equilibria when the technological level or the saving rate is not high enough and undergoes bifurcation at some specified parame-ter values. Therefore,the economy described by the model pre-sents multiple growth paths and ＂Malthusian Poverty Trap＂ when the technological level or the saving rate is low.

基于层次分析法的安全评价对经济贡献率的测算研究

影响安全评价绩效的因素有很多,采用层次分析方法和问卷调查形式,对评价对象层次结构化,计算出安全评价在技术进步中的权重为0.086 5。以安全评价的经济贡献率为评价其绩效的指标,结合索洛增长模型在技术进步对经济增长的贡献率测算中的应用,以及考虑安全评价效果影响系数μ,最终测算出安全评价对经济增长的贡献率为1.58%。与安全评价的投入相比,安全评价具有良好的经济效益,同时安全评价还带来可观的社会效益。

物流产业集群形成机理研究

产业聚集是一种地理上相对集中的现象,其发展前景和形成原因受到越来越多的重视。中外学者还未就产业集群形成的机理进行定量分析。为了研究产业集群形成的原因和动机并得出定量结果,首先在交易效率原理的基础上,分析了物流产业集群在地域空间范围的集聚过程,在空间集聚的条件下,又基于范围经济原理揭示了物流企业集聚的内在动因,即共享资源和商业合作,最后运用Cobb-Douglas生产函数和Solow经济增长模型原理,分析完整物流产业集群发展的经济原理和相应的最优投资组合。在以上三个角度的分析的基础上,得出产业集群形成的必然条件和形成的内外在因素以及投资建议。

汶川地震对阿坝州经济增长影响理论与实证研究

自然灾害对经济增长的影响是灾害经济学研究的重要问题之一。基于新古典增长理论,探讨了自然灾害与经济增长之间的关系。阐述了灾害对人均资本、投资率和技术进步的影响,分析了灾后人均产出动态。灾害使经济偏离平衡增长路径,使经济增长率提高或降低,但会重新回到平衡增长路径,预示灾害不会对经济的长期增长造成影响。恢复重建投资可以改变经济的恢复速度,恢复重建过程中采用新材料新技术可以提高经济体中的技术水平,加速经济发展。汶川地震后阿坝州第一产业增长率略微超过预测值,也超过了震前增长率;震后第二产业强劲恢复,增长率超过了震前水平,在产业结构中占GDP的比重越来越大;第三产业增长率快速下降。分析了三类产业增长率呈现不同变化趋势的原因。

产业集群的增长经济学解释

产业集群作为一种独特的产业组织形式,在区域经济增长中起着重要的促进作用,研究产业集群作用于经济增长的机理是经济理论工作者的重要任务。本文以Solow经济增长理论为基础,结合产业集群形成的内在原因,运用定量分析的方法从理论上解释了产业集群与经济增长的关系。

劳动人口占比对投资率和经济增长的影响——基于索洛模型和中国数据的研究

基于拓展的索洛经济增长模型,从劳动力供给视角对中国过去数十年的投资驱动型发展战略进行考量,采用中国1997—2014年的省级面板数据对理论模型进行检验。结果显示:劳动人口占比对投资率的影响具有明显的门槛效应,充足的劳动力供给有助于促进资本积累,而劳动人口占比的下降对投资率的增长效应不断弱化。"人口红利"拐点的到来预示着中国的投资率将发生下降,进而对经济增长产生负面影响。新常态下中国经济增长必须从依靠"人口数量红利"转为依靠"人口素质红利",更好地提高劳动参与率和劳动力资源配置效率。

成都市产业结构与经济增长实证分析——基于1980-2013年的经验数据

基于成都市1980年至2013年的生产总值及一、二、三产业值样本数据,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和索洛经济增长模型,对成都市产业结构、经济增长与生产要素的相关性进行实证检验,定量分析三次产业对经济增长的贡献率和拉动经济增长的百分比.研究表明:目前成都市产业结构处于"三二一"顺序的工业化后期阶段,最近几年第三产业是经济增长的主要动力.然而,随着第三产业结构的不断扩张,势必会使第一产业和第二产业对经济规模的正效应下降,最终把经济带入衰退的境地.因此,要使成都市的经济长期稳定增长必须进一步优化调整产业结构.

土地经济驱动功能减弱的理论解释与数据验证

研究目的:探寻土地经济驱动功能减弱的理论支撑与经验验证。研究方法:差分GMM与系统GMM。研究结果:(1)理论与数据均验证了土地财政对地方城市经济增长的贡献呈现出先升后降的“倒U型”关系,且绝大多数地方城市处于顶点右翼下降阶段;(2)劳动力质量的提升比劳动力数量的增加对经济增长影响更为重要,技术投入与制度创新对地方城市经济增长存在显著正向影响;(3)虽然土地财政存在一定的路径依赖,但并不是永久性地不可改变;(4)相对于东、西部城市来讲,中部城市转变土地财政发展经济模式的过程更为艰难。研究结论:地方政府应该果断摒弃以地谋生的发展模式,推进县域经济持续健康发展,向质量效益并重转型。

索洛余值法模型研究及其应用

为应对激烈的市场竞争态势,企业必须彻底摆脱陈旧的管理手段和经营观念,将信息技术和最前沿的科学管理方法导入自己的管理机制,才有望获得生机和持续发展的可能。文中采用数学形式简单、经济含义清晰、假设条件比较合理的Solow增长速度方程,通过余值法测算了信息化建设对经济增长速度的贡献率。

技术进步对辽宁省经济增长贡献的定量研究

技术进步是推动经济增长的动力,并且在经济增长中发挥越来越重要的作用.运用索洛的生产函数模型,以统计数据为基础,测算了1980-2003年间辽宁省全要素增长率,解析了各种生产要素对经济增长的影响水平,讨论了技术进步在辽宁省经济增长过程中的主要方式及其变化方向,并给出了相关建议.

环境治理投资与经济增长:理论与经验研究

文章对环境治理投资和经济增长的关系进行了理论和实证研究。理论上,通过扩展Solow模型将环境治理资金和劳动投入因素引入经济增长模型中,分析环境治理对经济增长均衡路径的影响;实证上,根据消费者效用最大化原则建立包含环境污染治理的计量模型,实证了环境治理投资及其份额变化对经济增长的影响,结果显示,环境治理投资对经济增长有显著的正向作用,但短期内环境治理投资份额的增加对经济增长的作用是负向的。为此,在坚持长期环境污染投资的同时,短期内要协调好环境治理和经济发展之间的关系。