Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin

In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China

The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.

THE FLOOD OF THE NENJIANG RIVER AND THE SONGHUA RIVER IN 1998 AND THE COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE RIVER BASINS

In the summer of 1998, an exceptionally serious flood, with the characteristics of high water level, large volume of flow, long duration and serious losses caused by the disaster, occurred in the Nenjiang River basin and the Songhua River basin. Greater flood peak occurred three times in the trunk stream of the Nenjiang River for the floods occurred in its tributaries one after another. At Jiangqiao Hydrometric Station, the water level was 141.90 m and the rate of flow was 12?000 m 3/s. The flood is ranged to a catastrophic one, which occurs once in 50 years. Ranged to a catastrophic flood at Qiqihar Hydrometric Station that occurs once in 400 years, its water level, 0.89 m higher than the former all time highest, was 149.30?m and the corresponding rate of flow was 14?800?m 3/s. The water level that exceeded the all time highest lasted for 7 days. At Harbin Hydrometric Station, the water level, 0.59?m higher than the former all time highest, was 120.89?m and the corresponding rate of flow was 17?400?m 3/s. The water level that exceeded the all time highest lasted for 9 to 10 days. The flood here is ranged to a catastrophic one, which occurs once in 150 years. The flood of the Nenjiang River damaged 456×10 4?ha of crops and 115×10 4 rooms and the direct loss of economy exceeded 40 billion yuan(RMB). The main reasons of the flood are great rainfall, long flood season, unreasonable land use, regional ecological environment degradation and lack of water control projects. It is obvious that the following measures are greatly needed: the comprehensive management of the river basins; the formulation of development planning of the river basins, especially the water control projects; the development of agriculture based on ecological security.

Flood-ebb asymmetry in current velocity and suspended sediment transport in the Changjiang Estuary

Time series measurements were conducted on suspended sediment and current velocity from neap tide to spring tide in the South Branch of the upper Changjiang Estuary in the summer of 2011. Strong flood-ebb asymmetry in the current velocity was observed in the South Branch as a result of high river runoff and tide deformation, in which the magnitude and duration of ebb currents were significantly greater than those of flood currents. The suspended sediment concentration（SSC） and suspended median grain size also exhibited remarkable flood-ebb variation; these variables were considerably larger during the ebb than during the flood and increased from neap to spring tide. Affected by the strong asymmetry in the current velocity and SSC between the flood and ebb,suspended sediment flux during the ebb was notably larger than during the flood, and a seaward tidal net flux was observed in each tidal cycle. The balance of sediment flux illustrates that the seaward sediment transport was dominated by river flow and tidal trapping and the landward sediment transport was dominated by the Stokes drift and the shear effect. Notable resuspension occurred during the spring and moderate tides. The critical velocity for the resuspension of bed sediments was estimated based on the correlation between current velocity with SSC and suspended median grain size. The results show that the critical velocity was approximately 40 cm/s during the flood phases and approximately 80 cm/s during the ebb phases because the surficial flood bed sediments located in the lower reach are much finer than the surficial ebb bed sediments located in the upper reach. The flood-ebb variation in the critical erosion velocity has significant effect on the intratidal variation of SSC and sediment transport process, and it is a common phenomenon in many estuaries of the world due to the complicated spatial distribution of bed sediments.

Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China

Since the 1950s,numerous soil and water conservation measures have been implemented to control severe soil erosion in the Liuhe River Basin(LRB),China.While these measures have protected the upstream soil and water ecological environment,they have led to a sharp reduction in the downstream flow and the deterioration of the river ecological environment.Therefore,it is important to evaluate the impact of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological processes to assess long-term runoff changes.Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)models and sensitivity analyses based on the Budyko hypothesis,this study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change,direct water withdrawal,and soil and water conservation measures on runoff in the LRB during different periods,including different responses to runoff discharge,hydrological regime,and flood processes.The runoff series were divided into a baseline period(1956-1969)and two altered periods,i.e.,period 1(1970-1999)and period 2(2000-2020).Human activities were the main cause of the decrease in runoff during the altered periods,contributing 86.03%(-29.61 mm),while the contribution of climate change was only 13.70%(-4.70 mm).The impact of climate change manifests as a decrease in flood volume caused by a reduction in precipitation during the flood season.Analysis of two flood cases indicated a 66.00%-84.00%reduction in basin runoff capacity due to soil and water conservation measures in the upstream area.Soil and water conservation measures reduced the peak flow and total flood volume in the upstream runoff area by 77.98%and 55.16%,respectively,even with nearly double the precipitation.The runoff coefficient in the reservoir area without soil and water conservation measures was 4.0 times that in the conservation area.These results contribute to the re-evaluation of soil and water conservation hydrological effects and provide important guidance for water resource planning and water conservation policy formulation in the LRB.

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan toYichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches ofthe Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed tosimulate runoffs of this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that therainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and theresults describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with thesensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading tosimulation errors are further discussed.

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff—A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.

龙羊峡水库后汛期入库径流特征及可蓄水量分析

以1956—2022年唐乃亥水文站实测水文数据为基础,采用数理统计方法,重点分析黄河源区后汛期径流特征,并结合龙羊峡水库满负荷发电流量,对龙羊峡水库在后汛期可蓄水量进行不同情景的分析讨论。研究表明:1)唐乃亥水文站后汛期径流量年际变化较大,丰枯不均,以正常偏枯为主,多年平均后汛期径流量占汛期径流量的29.1%;2)唐乃亥水文站后汛期日平均流量在1000 m^(3)/s以上的径流量平均为8.96亿m^(3),年际变化极大,以1000 m^(3)/s发电流量运用,龙羊峡水库蓄至正常蓄水位的保证率仅为10%,多数年份汛期结束后水位无法达到正常蓄水位2600 m。建议根据后期来水,适时调整进入后汛期的时机,优化和调整龙羊峡水库年度调度方案,为高效合理利用黄河源区后汛期水资源奠定基础。

基于集成学习与深度学习的洪水径流预报研究

深度学习模型凭借其对水文因素间复杂作用的优秀处理能力,在水文预报领域得到了一定的应用,然而,针对集成学习与深度学习耦合模型的研究仍有所缺失。通过融合集成学习AdaBoost算法与深度学习Informer模型,提出了一种组合模型,称为AdaBoost-Informer模型,以提高洪水径流预报的精度。该模型以历史雨量和径流数据作为数据输入,将具备长时序依赖捕获能力的Informer作为集成学习的弱预测器,使用网格搜索法进行超参数调优,使用AdaBoost集成学习算法对弱预测器进行加权组合得到强预测器。在浙江省椒江流域的应用分析表明:对比Random Forest、AdaBoost、Transformer、Informer等模型,AdaBoost-Informer模型表现最佳,RMSE为62.08 m^(3)/s,MAE为23.83 m^(3)/s,NSE为0.980,预报合格率为100%。所提模型可有效提高洪水预报精度,为防汛抢险和防洪系统调度提供决策依据。

黄河源区汛期降水径流序列多尺度小波分析

基于黄河源区15个地面站点日降水数据、唐乃亥水文站逐日径流数据以及小波分析方法,分析了黄河源区1961—2020年汛期降水和径流的周期规律、变化趋势及相关关系。结果表明,1)黄河源区近60 a汛期降水、径流均存在多时间尺度的变化特征,且不同时间尺度汛期降水、径流丰枯变化趋势均不同;2)汛期降水、径流序列均具有63 a左右、35 a左右特征时间尺度的主周期,两个时间尺度下的平均周期分别为41、25 a左右,汛期降水、汛期径流具有一定的正相关性;3)在63 a特征时间尺度可预测2020年之后未来5~10 a内黄河源区汛期降水、径流整体均呈减小趋势。

梯级水库下游最不利洪水地区组成法

梯级水库运行调度显著改变了下游洪水的时程分配,而现有洪水地区组成法没有考虑对工程设计和防洪调度最不利或最恶劣的情景。本文基于灾害风险理论,根据未控区间洪量及地区组成概率,提出一种最不利洪水地区组成法。雅砻江梯级水库实例分析表明:最不利地区组成法分配给下游未控区间流域的洪量总是大于同频率组成法和最可能组成法;最不利组成法推求的雅砻江出口断面1 000年一遇设计洪峰、3 d和7 d洪量分别为16 700 m^(3)/s、41.6亿和85.1亿m^(3),均大于其他洪水地区组成法估计值。理论推导和统计试验表明最不利地区组成法可合理分配洪量并兼顾下游防洪风险,具有深入研究和应用的价值。

松花江流域防洪现状及重难点问题解决思路

松花江是我国七大江河之一,为适应防洪新形势及新变化,分析了松花江流域防洪工程体系现状与面临的问题,立足流域防洪实际和经济社会发展需求,结合水情、工情、社情变化,提出科学开展滩区围堤分类治理,明确蓄滞洪区启用条件,解决防洪重点难点问题,以期为构建与经济社会高质量发展相适应的现代化防洪工程体系、系统提升松花江流域防洪减灾能力提供参考。

自然河道断面水动力模拟的黎曼求解器改进

【目的】自然河道具有断面复杂、流态多变等特点,影响了水动力模拟的收敛性、稳定性,在已有研究基础上,改进复杂断面的黎曼求解器以解决低水位时断面不连续造成的数值不稳定问题,对提升自然河道一维水动力模拟的适用性具有重要意义。【方法】对低水位时存在“锥形凹陷”形态特征的复杂自然河道断面,传统不规则断面HLL黎曼求解器模拟时,会在河道干湿界面处出现通量演进受阻问题,针对上述问题,在河道干湿界面处直接采用界面流量值代替传统不规则断面HLL黎曼求解器计算的通量,改进传统黎曼求解器,使其能够适用于存在“锥形凹陷”形态特征的复杂自然断面河道干湿界面模拟,基于改进后的黎曼求解器构建不规则河道断面一维水动力模型,并采用五个通用算例对该方法在不同条件下的适用性进行了验证。【结果】结果显示:在一维溃坝算例中,对存在“锥形凹陷”特征的复杂河道断面,采用传统不规则断面HLL黎曼求解器模拟时,在河道干湿界面处出现了数值失稳和通量演进受阻问题,应用改进后的HLL求解器可以有效解决上述问题,数值解与理论解的相关系数高于0.99,结果准确可靠;在三角形挡水建筑物溃坝试验中,模型对4个测站的洪水到达时间和洪水过程的模拟结果与实测数据吻合,相关系数都在0.95以上;在一维过驼峰恒定流算例和急缓流交替模拟的陡坡河道水面线计算中,模型与传统模型表现相当,都能正确地预测不同河道断面形状下水跃位置和水跃前水深的变化;在长江口澄通河段潮位模拟算例中,模型预测的4个观测站点的潮位模拟数据与实测数据相关系数都在0.99以上,均方根误差都在0.08以内。【结论】结果表明:改进后的黎曼求解器可有效解决自然河道存在“锥形凹陷”形态特征导致水动力模型在干湿交界处通量演进受阻问题,构建的不规则河道断面一维水动力模型能够准确模拟复杂地形下的洪水波过程和潮位的相互作用。

基于分布式模型的流域洪水时空特征分析方法

为加深对极端暴雨条件下流域洪水形成机理的理解与认识,以“23·7”海河流域大清河特大洪水为例,提出一种基于分布式模型的流域洪水时空特征分析方法。采用时空变源分布式水文模拟方法,分别构建覆盖大清河南、北两支的分布式水文模型,开展分组并行模拟。结果表明:14个站点模拟洪峰误差平均值小于5%,纳什效率系数平均值为0.7,模拟结果较好。“23·7”特大洪水大清河北支平均径流系数为0.55,远高于南支流域(0.27),致灾洪量主要来自北支。北支流域在洪水过程中呈现超渗、蓄满混合产流模式,当该区域累计雨量超过107 mm时,流域出现蓄满地表产流,当小时雨量超过15.3 mm/h时,则可能出现超渗地表产流;对比大清河系南支,北支流域缺少大型控制性水利工程也是导致本次大清河特大洪水灾害发生的另一主要原因。

嘉陵江流域旱涝急转演变规律及其对径流影响研究

针对气象旱涝转换对流域径流影响的问题,基于嘉陵江流域逐日降水量和流量数据,采用长、短周期旱涝急转指数方法,揭示了旱涝急转时空分布特征与演变规律,定量评估了径流变化对不同旱涝急转类型的响应程度。结果表明:1977~2022年,嘉陵江流域共发生了8次汛期旱涝急转事件,其中6次发生在2004年及之后;空间上,南部、中部以及西北部地区发生旱涝急转的频率较大,在17%以上;在月尺度上,6~7月发生旱涝急转的频率最大,超过了20%。当汛期发生涝转旱时,北碚、罗渡溪、武胜以及小河坝等站的前半汛期流量相比常年平均增长了57.52%,38.74%,85.50%和99.73%,后半汛期流量相对常年平均偏低了20.82%,49.83%,22.64%和14.53%;而在旱转涝影响下,上述站点前半汛期流量较常年平均减少了31.17%,45.77%,28.83%和26.16%,后半汛期流量较常年分别增长了31.45%,47.17%,24.31%和3.27%;月尺度上也表现出相似规律,表明旱涝急转对嘉陵江径流有着显著影响。研究成果可为梯级水库科学调度、流域水安全保障提供参考。

海河流域大清河系暴雨中心移植和地区洪水组成分析

近年来极端天气事件频发,暴雨洪涝灾害的突发性、极端性愈发显著,海河流域大部分区域多年未经特大洪水检验,为分析未来可能发生极端暴雨洪水的致灾情况,开展暴雨中心预测及可能的地区洪水组成分析十分必要。研究以多年未发生极端暴雨洪水的大清河系为对象,基于研究区域103个雨量站降水数据,预测了河系暴雨中心可能位置,以“63·8”暴雨分布为参照,开展暴雨中心移植及地区洪水组成分析。结果表明:大清河系特大暴雨中心位置较为稳定,可能的暴雨中心位置海拔高度主要介于100~600 m之间;在相同雨量条件下,暴雨中心位于水库下游山区附近(“63·8”)时,产生洪水总量相对较大,暴雨中心位于平原地区附近时相对较小,且暴雨中心位置的变化对地区洪水组成的影响显著。

考虑径流过程矢量化的机器学习洪水预报模型

准确的超前洪水预报有利于开展防洪减灾工作和优化水资源调度。本文提出一种针对场次洪水的径流过程矢量化方法(Runoff Process Vectorization, RPV),并耦合3种机器学习(Machine Learning, ML)模型构建了RPV-ML洪水预报系列模型。以黄河中上游孤山川、佳芦河和祖厉河3个典型流域为研究区,分别基于43、28、37场洪水的降雨径流数据,按照洪水场次7∶3的比例进行模型训练和验证。研究表明:(1)相同预见期条件下RPV-ML模型在孤山川、佳芦河和祖厉河流域洪水预报纳什效率系数更高、均方根误差和洪峰相对误差更低,RPV-ML模型比ML模型具有更好的预报性能,在预见期为4~6 h时优势更显著;(2) RPV-ML和ML模型预报精度会随着预见期增加逐渐下降,但RPV-ML预报精度呈现缓慢下降趋势,具有更好的鲁棒性;(3)基于RPV改进的时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network, TCN)可以更好地克服预报误差问题,RPV-TCN模型在3个流域预报性能最好。

基于百色水库调节的郁江“2001.7”洪水复盘反演分析

郁江“2001.7”洪水是1937年以来郁江流域发生的最大洪水,为20年一遇大洪水,洪水给沿河两岸群众造成直接经济损失数亿元。利用具有良好调节作用的百色水库对该次郁江流域大洪水开展现状边界条件下模拟仿真复盘分析和研究,总结归纳出郁江流域水库调度运行方式、时机把握等特征规律,对未来遭遇类似洪水时,充分用水库进行科学合理调度,发挥水库拦洪削峰作用,最大限度减轻洪涝灾害具有十分重要现实意义。

南方山区小流域“暴雨——产流——汇流”及洪水预警初步研究——以培秀河为例

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