VARIATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITIES

Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.

A numerical study of the summer circulation in the southwestern Yellow Sea

The Regional Ocean Modeling System（ROMS） is used to study the summer circulation in the southwestern Yellow Sea（SWYS）. The modeled currents show good agreement with observations from both drifters and moorings. While the summer current in the SWYS flows consistently northeastward on the surface with large magnitude offshore, the current below the surface layer features a cyclonic circulation roughly along the 25 m isobath. The effect of a surface wind stress and bottom thermal fronts on the circulation is investigated through a series of process-oriented numerical experiments. It is found that the southeasterly wind dominates the surface current, whereas the bottom thermal fronts, which are formed in a transition area between the vertically well-mixed region and the stratified region, are responsible for the cyclonic circulation below the surface.

IMPACT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING SUMMER MONSOON

The intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of the South China Sea(SCS, 105-120°E, 5-20°N) convection and its influences on the genesis and track of the western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclones(TCs) were explored, based on the daily average of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the OLR data and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone best-track data from 1979 to 2008. The mechanism of the influences of ISO on TC movement and the corresponding large-scale circulation were discussed by a trajectory model. It was found as follows.(1) During the SCS summer monsoon, the SCS convection exhibits the ISO features with active phases alternating with inactive phases. The monsoon circulation patterns are significantly different during these two phases. When the SCS convection is active(inactive), the SCS-WNP monsoon trough stretches eastward(retreats westward) due to the activity(inactivity) of SCS monsoon, and the WNP subtropical high retreats eastward(stretches westward), which enhances(suppresses) the monsoon circulation.(2) The amount of TC genesis in the active phase is much more than that in the inactive phase. A majority of TCs form west of 135 °E during the active phases but east of 135 °E in the inactive phases.(3) The TCs entering the area west of 135 °E and south of 25 °N would move straight into the SCS in the active phase, or recurve northward in the inactive phase.(4) Simulation results show that the steering flow associated with the active(inactive)phases is in favor of straight-moving(recurving) TCs. Meanwhile, the impacts of the locations of TC genesis on the characteristics of TC track cannot be ignored. TCs that occurred father westward are more likely to move straight into the SCS region.

South Asian High and Asian-Pacific-American Climate Teleconnection

Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American （APA） sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high （SAH）, which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high （SWPH）, the midPacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Effects of topography on the sub-tidal circulation in the southwestern Huanghai Sea(Yellow Sea)in summer

A nested circulation model system based on the Princeton ocean model （POM） is set up to simulate the currentmeter data from a bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Profiler （ADP） deployed at the 30 m depth in the Lunan（South Shandong Province, China） Trough south of the Shandong Peninsula in the summer of 2008, and to study the dynamics of the circulation in the southwestern Huanghai Sea （Yellow Sea）. The model has reproduced well the observed subtidal current at the mooring site. The results of the model simulation suggest that the bottom topography has strong steering effects on the regional circulation in summer. The model simulation shows that the Subei （North Jiangsu Province, China）coastal current flows north- ward in summer, in contrast to the southeastward current in the center of the Lunan Trough measured by the moored currentmeter. The analyses of the model results suggest that the southeastward current at the mooring site in the Lunan Trough is forced by the westward wind-driven current along the Lunan coast, which meets the northward Subei coastal current at the head of the Haizhou Bay to flow along an offshore path in the southeastward direction in the Lunan Trough. Analysis suggests that the Subei coastal current, the Lunan coastal current, and the circulation in the Lunan Trough are independent current systems con- trolled by different dynamics. Therefore, the current measurements in the Lunan Trough cannot be used to represent the Subei coastal current in general.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH, LATENT HEATING BY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATION WITH DISSIPATION AND MAINTENANCE OF SOUTH CHINA SEA TYPHOONS

Numerical modeling and experiments are conducted for the South China Sea typhoons Helen (1995) and Willie (1996) with an auto-adaptive mesh model. It is shown that durating the stage of dissipation the typhoons are mainly related with the subtropical high rather than the topography. The high is sensitive to the intensity change of the typhoon so that the former weakens as the latter strengthens and vice versa. Maintaining the typhoon as a main factor, the release of latent heat is in reversed proportion with the subtropical high in terms of the intensity. It is found that the storm tends to be maintained if it moves close to the westerly trough after landfall.

基于HYSPLIT模式分析云南四次冬季强降水水汽特征

本文利用NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)再分析资料、地面区域自动站资料和MICAPS(Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System)资料对云南四次冬季强降水过程进行研究,再运用HYSPLIT模式(Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Intergrated Trajectory)方法模拟影响云南冬季强降水的主要路径及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明:过程1受南支槽、切变线以及地面冷锋共同影响,是近年来云南冬季全省性暴雨的最强过程。过程2—4则仅受南支槽和地面冷锋或准静止锋影响。日平均整层水汽通量大小与暴雨站数具有明显正相关。降水时对流层低层至高层西、南边界均为水汽输入。过程1水汽收支最大,强降水范围最大。过程2、3水汽输入较大,但同时水汽输出也较大,收支中等,强降水范围次之。过程4水汽收支最小,强降水范围最小。云南暴雨区500 hPa的水汽中41%来自印度洋、55%来自大西洋、4%来自西太平洋。云南暴雨区700 hPa的水汽中26%来自西太平洋、59%来自印度洋、15%来自大西洋。地面以上100 m高度的水汽17%来自西太平洋、83%来自印度洋。对比四次过程水汽通量和降水实况,来自印度洋的水汽对于降水有重要作用。

南沙海槽—西北巴拉望构造特征及其意义

南沙海槽-西北巴拉望构造对认识南海成因与演化至关重要。综合南海南缘地质地球物理资料分析认为:南沙海槽极薄地壳可能不是古南海的残余,是夭折的扩张中心;南沙海槽存在挤压逆冲作用,形成时间很晚,与南海扩张无关,是南海形成后挤压的结果。南沙海槽挤压作用与西北巴拉望Pagasa楔变形对比表明,南海南缘的挤压作用停止时间东部早于西部;中、南巴拉望蛇绿岩来自其南部往北逆冲的产物,可能表明古南海由南往北俯冲。综上认为南巴拉望蛇绿岩可能来自新特提斯洋壳,中巴拉望蛇绿岩来自古南海洋壳;不同时期洋壳俯冲残余最终被逆冲至岛弧系之上;巴拉望蛇绿岩是长期由南往北逆冲的结果,最后就位时间可能是中晚中新世。

滇中及以东地区一次强降雪天气过程诊断分析

2022年2月19至23日,滇中及以东地区出现强降温降雪天气,其中曲靖出现了中到大雪局部暴雪或大暴雪。利用常规观测资料、物理量场、卫星云图等数据对此次天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:南支槽与昆明准静止锋(冷锋)是此次强降雪天气的主要影响系统;西南气流加强、水汽通量加大以及低层水汽辐合、高层辐散为此次降雪天气过程提供了较好的水汽条件;强烈的上升运动为降雪提供了必要的动力扰动;700 hPa上-4℃等温线和地温低于0℃的温度线与雪线位置相对应;卫星云图清晰的反映了南支槽与昆明准静止锋(冷锋)的移动、交汇和发展;多普勒雷达图上也进一步证实了不断补充加强的冷空气在此次降雪过程中的重要性。此次分析从天气系统、物理量场、卫星云图和雷达回波等各个维度进行,得出了滇中及以东地区出现降雪天气的指标,对以后降雪天气的预报具有明确的指示作用。

滇西北横断山脉一次持续强降水过程特征及成因分析

【目的】分析滇西北横断山脉2020年5月24—27日持续性强降水天气过程特征和成因。【方法】利用ERA5再分析资料和怒江州气象观测站雨量数据,基于HYSPLIT模式及天气学诊断分析。【结果】(1)中高纬环流的调整使南支槽稳定在青藏高原南部,上游风速增大使中高层形成西风急流,低层西南气流辐合,93~98°E、26~28°E区域维持>20 m·s^(-1)的纬向风且扩大东移;(2)贡山站过程累积雨量历史排行第二,暴雨持续日数达历年最高,具有一定的极端性。最大小时雨量9.9 mm,长时间降水的维持是引起此次过程的重要条件;(3)过程期间大气低层强辐合、中高层强辐散,抽吸作用明显,99°E区域低层强幅合中层强辐散中心与强降水落区相对应,中高层上升气流加强时期与降水集中时段对应较好,物理量的变化对降水趋势变化有指示意义;(4)低层水汽辐合强且向中高层输送,大于90%的相对湿度伸展至高层。水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾及阿拉伯海,部分水汽来自喇叭口地形作用及天气系统。【结论】加深对此类天气过程的了解和认识,为开展预报预警服务提供参考。

西风带南支槽对云南天气的影响

利用1980-2008年近30年逐日地面、高空观测资料,统计了影响云南的西风带南支槽个例,并分析了南支槽的时空分布和对云南降水的影响。结果表明,影响云南的南支槽平均每年出现18.76次,11月-次年5月平均每月出现次数相当(6-10月西风带北撤,转换为孟加拉湾槽);约5.88%的南支槽过程对云南产生大到暴雨天气,54.83%的南支槽产生小到中雨,另有17.28%的南支槽产生冰雹天气过程。南支槽的进退与西风带环流形势、副热带高压位置和高原大地形等关系密切,南支槽位置、水汽输送、湿度锋区、低空急流和冷空气强弱等条件的不同决定了降水的强弱或是否有强对流天气出现。

2009-2013年中国西南地区连续干旱的成因分析

2009年以来,中国西南地区连续4年秋、冬、春季出现严重干旱,持续时间长、影响范围大、干旱程度重,给旱区农林业生产和人民生活带来严重影响,造成巨大的经济损失。本文利用多种资料从大尺度大气环流、水汽输送、太平洋及印度洋海温、平流层极涡等方面分析了此次连续干旱的原因。结果表明:南支槽强度偏弱、孟加拉湾水汽输送偏少以及弱极涡背景下,异常波活动造成的AO负异常引起的冷空气路径偏东是这4年持续干旱的共同特点。热带海表温度的异常变化对西南地区干旱的影响也不容忽视,主要表现在对孟加拉湾和南海水汽输送的阻碍上。La Nina事件中,热带印度洋冬、春季海表温度的异常变化对干旱影响更为突出。冬、春季平流层和对流层的动力耦合作用结果使得AO位相发生变化,其中异常负位相的强度及持续时间对这4年西南地区秋、冬、春连旱的影响显著。

南沙海槽南部海区表层沉积物重金属元素含量及其影响因素

南沙海槽南部海区表层沉积物重金属元素表现为亲陆性,丰度为:Ba>Sr>Zn>Ni>Zr>Pb>Cr>Cu>Co,浓集程度为Ba>Sr>Cr>Zr>Pb>Zn>Co>Ni>Cu,元素Cu-Zn,Cu-Ni,Cu-Ba及Ba-Zn呈明显正相关,Cu,Ni,Ba,Zn,Cr与水深变化关系较为密切。元素与CaCO3含量、氧化物含量、粒度组成的相关系数表明:（1）Pb,Co,Zr,既存在于陆源碎屑矿物晶格中,又以吸附状态被黏土吸附,还受碳酸盐沉积影响。（2）Sr,主要受生物碳酸盐沉积作用影响。（3）Cu,Zn,Ni,Cr,Ba,主要受黏土的吸附作用及铁锰氧化物的影响。

南沙海槽区表层沉积物的地球化学特征

对南沙海槽区 73个表层沉积物的地球化学及沉积环境特征进行了研究。微量元素主要有 Cu、Pb、Zn、Ni、Co、Cr、Sr、Ba和 Zr,表现为亲陆性 ,常量组分为 Si O2 、Al2 O3、TFe、Ca O、Mg O、K2 O、Na2 O、Mn O、P2 O5 、Ti O2 ,表现为边缘海向深海过渡的沉积环境特点。沉积物质含有粘土组分、碳酸盐型生物碎屑组分、陆源碎屑非粘土组分以及火山碎屑、岛源物质 ,沉积环境与水深关系密切 ,在 2 0 0 m以浅 ,沉积物的供给复杂 ,沉积环境多变 ,在 2 0 0 m以深 ,沉积物的供给和沉积环境稳定。

黔桂地区泥盆纪层序地层和台内裂陷槽的形成演化

黔桂地区是泥盆纪时期南华海盆内裂陷活动作用初始且十分显著的地区。本文结合区域构造和盆地格局分析，通过典型剖面研究，将黔桂稳定型滨岸一台地相区的泥盆系划分为２１个３级海平面变化控制的层序。根据南丹罗富、大厂裂陷槽盆地泥盆系层序地层研究和与相邻稳定型泥盆系层序地层对比及层序地层格架分析，揭示了裂陷槽盆地的形成演化过程。指出构造幕式沉降是裂陷槽盆地层序发育和层序构成的主控因素。

冲绳海槽南部基底构造特征

利用最新的重磁数据对冲绳海槽南部的基底构造进行了推断解释，研究表明，在冲绳海槽南部，荚霍面构造为一南北两端高，中间低的鞍状构造，地壳厚度在15．5～21km之间变化．基底深度一般在4～6km之间变化，表现为南段深度大，北段深度小，在北西向断裂系的作用下，基底局部构造大都成北西向展布，说明冲绳海槽早期的北东向带状构造受到了后期的北西向构造活动的强烈改造作用．在冲绳海槽南部发育有两条沿北北东向展布的火成岩带，一条分布在冲绳海槽扩张轴以东及琉球岛弧西侧下坡；另一条分布在冲绳海槽与琉球岛弧隆褶带的结合部位，火成岩主要是由北东向构造活动产生的，而与北西向断裂关系不密切．

南沙海槽东南缘深水逆冲推覆构造

位于我国南海南部南沙海槽东南缘深水逆冲推覆构造系统记录着古南海俯冲与消亡及南海扩张的演化史,为现今仍在活动的构造系统。本文综合阐述了深水逆冲推覆构造的几何学和运动学特征、形成时代和形成过程,并结合区域地质背景探讨其动力学机制,建立构造演化模式。研究结果表明,基于几何学特征差异该构造系统在平面上可划分为南段和北段,垂向上分为上部逆冲推覆构造体系和下部逆冲推覆构造体系。受控于动力学机制,北段褶皱构造变形强度明显大于南段,体现在相邻逆冲褶皱排列间距明显小于南段。综合区域地质背景分析认为:下部逆冲推覆构造体系变形机制为晚白垩世—早中新世古南海俯冲消亡于婆罗洲之下的地壳缩短作用,而上部逆冲推覆构造体系变形机制为中中新世以来三角洲推进的重力滑脱作用与苏禄海盆扩张的地壳缩短作用的叠加结果。

2011年1月湖南罕见持续性暴雪天气成因分析

应用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2011年1月湖南发生的罕见大范围持续性暴雪天气过程进行了详细分析。结果表明:乌拉尔山阻塞高压和孟加拉湾南支槽稳定维持,"南低北高"环流形势有利于冷暖气流在长江中下游地区一带汇合,是持续性暴雪发生的大尺度环流背景;700 hPa西南急流的建立和加强为暴雪区带来源源不断的水汽供应和不稳定能量,持续而强盛的水汽输送和水汽辐合对暴雪维持和加强至关重要;青藏高原有两次明显的正涡度向东传播至我国东部地区,正涡度东传有利于垂直上升运动维持和加强;暴雪期间湖南上空维持较强的锋生区,准静止锋稳定少动,锋区强度逐渐增强,其最强阶段与暴雪最强阶段一致,而高空急流和锋面的耦合加强了湖南区域的上升运动,是暴雪天气持续的主要原因;锋前干冷空气在对流层中层形成的干层加强了暴雪过程的对流性不稳定,而锋后干冷空气作为"冷垫"锲入暖湿气流下方,促进锋生和暖湿空气的抬升和凝结,是不稳定能量释放的触发机制。

一类低涡切变型华南前汛期致洪暴雨的分析研究

采用2008年我国南方暴雨野外科学试验(SCHeREX)加密资料和NCEP再分析资料、FY-2C卫星TBB资料以及常规观测资料对广西致洪暴雨进行了研究。研究发现,西南涡是此次暴雨过程的直接影响系统,对流和降水主要发生在低涡的中部及其东南方。中高纬切断低压和副热带高压稳定维持,500hPa短波槽沿高原东侧南下,诱导西南涡向东南移入广西,这种情况并不太常见,这是由于槽后冷空气活跃,但路径偏西。受副热带高压西伸影响,低槽与西南低涡移动缓慢。在移入广西前西南涡一度减弱,但由于有明显的中、低纬系统相互作用存在,季风槽为本次暴雨输送了充沛的水汽,致使西南涡再度加强,引发暴雨。暴雨过程中中尺度对流云团活动频繁,强度大,降水强,有大约11个中尺度雨团缓慢移动。桂林的探空资料表明,暴雨区中低层温度层结多为中性,这可能是对流混合的结果,西南涡过境后,低层风场有明显变化,大气抬升凝结高度显著降低,对流有效位能(CAPE)由于释放而降低。在上述研究的基础上,本文提出了一类华南前汛期低涡切变型暴雨概念模型。

一次引发华南大暴雨的南海季风槽异常特征及其原因分析

2007年8月10日第7号台风"帕布"在广东沿海消失后,尾随而上的南海季风槽给华南沿海和台湾岛带来持续多日的暴雨和大暴雨。由于南海季风槽是华南最主要的降水系统,因此研究了8月第3候引发华南大暴雨的南海季风槽的异常特征及其可能的原因。首先分析了季风槽的气候平均时空特征。研究表明低层辐合、高层辐散位于季风槽的南侧,表现了季风槽独立的空间结构特征。南海季风槽强度8月中旬最强。对2007年季风槽的分析表明,该年8月第3候的南海季风槽强度偏强,低层正涡度、辐合以及高层辐散偏强。同时印度季风槽也偏强。南亚高压中心位于青藏高原上空并加强是整个亚洲季风槽增强的主要原因。青藏高原上空增温引起高空东风急流和低空西南季风的加强,增加了华南沿海高空辐散和低空辐合,对于南海季风槽的加强和维持起着重要的作用。此外,西太平洋副热带高压位于日本上空并且强度偏强,西风带长波槽偏强并向我国西南深入也有利于南海季风槽加强。南海季风槽具有30～60天季节内振荡特征,30～60天大气季节内振荡对南海季风槽向北迁移及加强有重要影响。