Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal timescale.The results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 years.During the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in winter.The corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)pattern.The AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

Impact of El Nino on Large-scale Circulation of Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

Multi-year SST and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind data were employed to study the impacts of El Nio on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM). It was found that the impacts of El Nio on the SEASM differed distinctly from those on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Composite analysis indicated that the "gear point" of coupling between the Indo-monsoon circulation and the Pacific-Walker circulation was located in the western margins of Southeast Asia when the developing stage of El Nio events covered the boreal summer. The anomalous circulations in the lower and upper troposphere and divergent circulation are all favorable for the strengthening of the SEASM during this period. Following the evolution of El Nio, the "gear point" of the two cells shifted eastward to the central Pacific when the mature or decaying period of El Nio events covered the boreal summer. The anomalous circulations are favorable for the weakening of the SEASM. The anomalous indexes of intensity of SEASM accord well with the above results. Additionally, the difference of SSTA patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean between the two stages of the El Nio may play an important role.

Integration Level for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） Economic Community

The time has come for the constitution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） economic community and many facts have been analyzed regarding this topic. This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis applied to several economic parameters which firstly show how their integration pattern adjusts with a considerable good fitting to the optimum currency area model and to its extended version by Behrens; and secondly how the 10 members of this group are moving at relatively same speed in spite of their differences, that are also inferred for ranging.

Effect of Macro Factor Volatility on the Returns of Financial Sector in Southeast Asian Stock Markets

The emphasis of this study is on the practice of the Pooled Mean Group （PMG） estimators to investigate the magnitude of macroeconomic performances： Real Gross Domestic Product （RGDP）, Foreign Exchange Rate （EX）, and Deposit Interest Rate （DINT） affecting on the rate of financial sector returns in Southeast Asian Stock Markets including Stock Exchange Of Thailand （SET） index （Thailand）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI） （Singapore）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and the Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag （Panel ARDL） is applied to model the relations. The study applies the Levin, Lin, and Chu （LLC） test （2002） and Im, Pesaran, and Shin （IPS） test （2003） to investigates a set of time series data to examine whether the determinants and the rate of financial sector returns contain a unit root, the next step is investigated the cointegration and causality relationship of the determinants of financial sector influencing on long-run rate of returns of financial sector in Southeast Asian Stock Markets.

YUNNAN INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES

Yunnan Institute of Southeast Aslanstudles， the key institute of Yunnan Academy ofSocial Sciences， Is a scientific． non—for—profit organization which Is engaged In studyingSoutheast Asian Affairs． It is one of the major Institutes ofsoutheast Asian Studies In Chl－na．

Climatology and Interannual Variability of the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

In this paper, results from a pilot study for the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment are reported. Based on analyses of 9 years of pentad and monthly mean data, the climatology of subseasonal features and interannual variability of the Southeast Asian monsoon (SEAM) are documented. The present analysis is focused on the sudden onset of the South China Sea monsoon and its relation to the atmospheric and oceanic processes on the entire Asian monsoon region. \ \ It is found that the onset of the SEAM occurs around mid-May, signaling the earliest stage of the entire Asian summer monsoon system. The establishment of monsoon rainfall over the South China Sea is abrupt, being accompanied by substantial changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the adjacent oceans. The onset and fluctuations of SEAM involve the interaction and metamorphosis of the large scale convection over the Indo-China, the South China Sea and the southern Bay of Bengal. Results show that the onset time of the SEAM differs greatly from one year to another. The delayed (advanced) onset of the monsoon may be related to basin-wide warm (cold) events of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. We also present evidence showing that the SEAM fluctuations in May may foreshadow the development of the full-scale Asian summer monsoon during the subsequent months.

Eurasian Snow Conditions and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South and Southeast Asia: Assessment and Comparison

This study reveals the complex nature of the connection between Eurasian snow and the following summer season＇s monsoon rainfall by using four different indicators of snow conditions and correlating each of them to summer monsoon rainfall. Using 46 years of historical records of mean winter snow depth, maximum snow depth, and snow starting dates, and 27 years of snow area coverage from remote sensing observations over Eurasia, the authors found diverse correlation patterns between snow conditions and the following warm season＇s rainfall over South and Southeast Asia. Some of the results contradict the well-known inverse relationships between snow and the summer monsoon. This study provides an easy comparison of results in that it shows the connections between Eurasian snow and monsoon rainfall by using different Eurasian snow indicators based on the best available historical records without discrimination of regional variations in snow conditions.

An Analysis of Southeast Asian Firms' Investment in China

Economic cooperation between China and Southeast Asian economies is increasinglyattracting the attention of policy-makers, scholars, and practitioners. Firms from SoutheastAsia have been playing an important role in Chinas utilization of foreign direct investment,though most of these firms have been viewed as small, labor-intensive, and ordinary intechnology. This paper reveals one important dimension of economic cooperation betweenChina and Southeast Asia. It investigates the factors that influence Southeast Asian firmsinvestments in Guangdong, which is one of the largest provinces in China in terms ofutilization of foreign direct investment, and it tries to answer the question of what makeSoutheast Asian firms invest in China in a large scale and in the way of advancing waves.The research outcomes contribute to the knowledge of the changing economic relationsbetween China and Southeast Asia.

金融生态、经济发展与西部金融中心构建路径

推进西部金融中心建设是成渝地区双城经济圈建设的重要内容。那么,成渝地区金融发展的“家底”如何?与国家战略目标的差距有多大?运用AHP方法构建区域金融生态指标体系,对重庆和成都的金融生态进行评价;并以上海金融生态为标的,分析重庆和成都共建西部金融中心与上海金融中心的差距;运用PVAR模型实证检验金融生态与经济发展的关系。研究发现:重庆、成都和成渝的金融生态主体发展水平远落后于上海,部分金融生态环境均值指标也相对落后;金融中心能够增强金融要素资源集聚功能,优化资本配置,促进金融生态良性循环;良好的金融生态有利于经济发展,经济发展又可以促进金融生态主体发展和金融生态环境改善;构建西部金融中心有助于促进成渝地区金融生态良性循环,打造西部经济高质量发展重要增长极和新的动力源。基于此,从金融生态视角提出重庆和成都共同打造内陆国际金融中心的路径。

俄罗斯与东南亚国家合作的逻辑和实践

东南亚是俄罗斯“向东转”政策的目标区域之一,也是俄罗斯在亚太地区重建“另一个西方力量”的重要区域。俄罗斯给予东南亚国家军事技术和能源支持,重塑其在东南亚地区的大国形象,并通过建构集体身份和多极化国际体系逻辑,凸显其加强与东南亚国家合作的合理性和必要性。东南亚国家提升国际地位、扩大话语权的需求,以及在大国竞争中采取实用主义以获取更多利益的策略,则为俄罗斯成为东南亚地区的一支重要力量提供了条件。但身份同一性不足、地理位置相距较远、经济实力较弱、营商环境欠佳等多种不利因素使俄罗斯难以在短期内快速推进与东南亚国家的全面合作。

数字时代东南亚国家策略探析

当今时代,网络化、数字化、智能化深入发展。东南亚国家采取措施维护网络安全、保护数据权利,同时促进数据跨境流动,实现数字安全与发展之间的平衡。在带有地缘政治色彩的大国数字技术竞争中,东南亚国家基本秉持相对中立的立场,即使面对大国压力,仍然尽量避免选边站队,以维护战略自主地位、本国经济利益。外商投资促进东南亚数字经济发展,中美两国在东南亚数字市场占据较大份额,同时东南亚国家重视自主发展,投资人工智能产业,培育本土数字平台,并且尽力缩小国家间、城乡间数字水平差距,从而增强区域自主数字能力,实现区域数字一体化发展。由于东南亚数字发展特点、地缘政治形势,中国与东南亚国家数字合作存在诸多挑战。

缅甸甘宝锡钨矿区花岗岩年代学、岩石成因及其地质意义

与东南亚锡矿带的形成紧密相关的晚白垩世—古新世花岗岩带广泛发育于缅甸地区,然而有关花岗岩形成的动力学背景及时-空规律尚未形成统一认识。本文对缅甸甘宝矿区花岗岩进行了锆石U-Pb定年、岩石学和地球化学的综合研究。研究表明甘宝矿区岩体由黑云母二长花岗岩构成,两件样品的锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄分别为(64.0±0.69)Ma(n=25,MSWD=1.9)和(65.7±1.5)Ma(n=19,MSWD=3.8),表明岩浆侵位形成于晚白垩至古新世早期。代表性岩石样品具有高SiO_(2)(74.5%~77.2%)、高碱性元素(w(Na_(2)O+K_(2)O)=7.05%~8.48%),为过铝质(A/CNK>1.11)和高钾钙碱性属S型花岗岩。岩石具“平坦型”REE配分模式和强烈负铕异常(Eu/Eu^(*)=0.14~0.19),微量元素原始地幔标准化图显示富集的大离子亲石元素(Rb、Th、U、K和Pb)和亏损的高场强元素(Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf和Ti)。高的初始^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr比值(0.7322~0.7446)和负的εNd(t)值(–7.51~–6.95)以及TDM2年龄(1.55~1.51 Ga)表明,岩浆的初始熔体起源于中元古界陆壳基底的部分熔融,并经历了高程度分异结晶作用。甘宝矿区花岗岩体是属缅甸晚白垩世—古新世花岗岩带(90~60 Ma)的一部分,均形成于板块俯冲引起的弧后伸展环境,花岗岩体与钨成矿是新特提斯洋壳东向俯冲期间的岩浆-成岩-成矿事件的具体表现。

新加坡和胡志明城区降水离子组成及来源分析

近年来工农业发展导致东南亚城市大气污染日趋严重,然而其大气沉降离子组成观测仍稀少,导致关键污染组分的通量特征和来源并不十分清楚。本研究于2019年5月至2020年4月观测新加坡和胡志明城区降水离子(SO_(4)^(2-)、NO_(3)^(-)、NO_(2)^(-)、F^(-)、Cl^(-)、NH_(4)^(+)、K^(+)、Na^(+)、Ca^(2+)、Mg^(2+))浓度,基于正矩阵分解模型(PMF)进行来源分析,并重点讨论了占比较高的SO_(4)^(2-)的沉降通量及其变化特征。结果表明,偏北的胡志明市降水年均pH为6.9±0.5,但新加坡降水年均pH为4.5±0.4,呈重酸雨特征,其降水SO_(4)^(2-)在总离子中的占比(34%)和沉降通量(28.8 kg S/(ha·a))也显著高于胡志明市(分别为15%和19.3 kg S/(ha·a)),二者硫沉降也高于东南亚和中国大部分地区当前的沉降水平。PMF模型解析结果表明,农业源对新加坡和胡志明市降水NH4+的贡献分别为62%和47%,生物质燃烧源对降水K^(+)的贡献均达到73%,海洋源对新加坡和胡志明市降水Na+的贡献分别达到50%和92%,对降水Cl^(-)的贡献分别达到54%和45%。本研究提供了疫情前夕研究城市降水化学的重要数据,为评估后期疫情人为活动变化对空气污染的影响提供了参考依据,同时丰富了东南亚地区的降水化学组成和来源认识,为该地区城市空气质量管理及其生态环境效应评估提供了关键科学证据。

环球遥相关对东南亚低纬高原冬季降水年际变化影响的研究

根据欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)提供的ERA5再分析资料、美国地质调查局与加州大学共同开发的气候灾害组融合站点(CHIRPS)月平均降水资料,以及全球降水气候项目提供的全球降水气候数据集(GPCP)月平均降水资料,利用统计诊断方法研究了冬季环球遥相关(circumglobal teleconnection,CGT)对东南亚低纬高原地区同期降水年际变化的影响。相关分析的结果表明,CGT呈现方差贡献大致相当的两个主要模态,垂直方向上呈现相当正压结构,水平方向上的四个异常中心分别为位于地中海附近和印度半岛附近的负异常中心,以及位于阿拉伯半岛附近和东南亚低纬高原附近的正异常中心。CGT第一模态与东南亚低纬高原冬季降水呈现显著的正相关关系,在年际时间尺度上,当冬季CGT处于正位相时,欧洲西部、阿拉伯半岛西北部、阿拉伯海和东南亚低纬高原分别为异常“反气旋、气旋、反气旋、气旋”控制。异常气旋东侧的西南风将增加孟加拉湾和中国南海进入东南亚低纬高原的水汽输送,并在东南亚低纬高原地区辐合上升,最终促使东南亚低纬高原地区冬季降水偏多;反之,当冬季CGT处于负位相时,欧洲西部、阿拉伯半岛西北部、阿拉伯海和东南亚低纬高原为异常“气旋、反气旋、气旋、反气旋”控制。异常反气旋东侧的东北风减弱了由孟加拉湾和中国南海进入东南亚低纬高原的水汽,加之东南亚低纬高原处于异常辐散下沉区,最终导致东南亚低纬高原地区冬季降水偏少。东南亚低纬高原12月、1月和2月的降水与同期CGT之间也呈现显著的正相关关系,联系两者的关键物理过程与整个冬季的一致。典型个例分析的结果进一步验证了相关分析所揭示的环球遥相关影响东南亚低纬高原冬季降水年际变化的关键物理过程。

古骠国的绝响:东南亚排笙考

中国笙作为世界“自由簧”乐器的鼻祖,不仅对日本、韩国与朝鲜的笙有着深远影响,还对中国各少数民族及东南亚诸多民族的笙类乐器发展具有重要的促进作用。比较分析流传于老挝及泰国北部等地区的排笙并展开研究其发展历史、文化属性、形制音位、制作工艺及演奏特点,发现排笙的前身即《新唐书》中的骠国“大匏笙”。东南亚排笙独特的选材及制作工艺进一步推动中国笙的发展,并为学术界带来更多深刻的思考,也为中国笙注入新的发展活力。

冷战后日本对东南亚外交的脉络、逻辑与影响

冷战后日本对东南亚外交的演变脉络呈现明显的阶段性调整,包含政策领域与政策路径等。在此过程中,日本突出东南亚外交的政治色彩并全面发展与东盟国家的各领域双边关系,在持续深化经济外交的基础上取得了经济合作机制化建设进展,且正致力于推动与部分东盟国家的海洋安全合作及其机制化建设,进而试图主导地区秩序构建。日本对东南亚外交的政策逻辑主要体现在国家战略转型、地区框架建构与大国关系互动3个层面。其中,日本国家战略的目标诉求与实施路径,始终对其东南亚外交起到规范作用;日本对东南亚外交既是地区框架建构进程的有效组成部分,又受其规范与制约;日本始终需要考虑美国、中国等大国因素,且美国因素是约束日本外交取向的首要因素。冷战后日本对东南亚的外交深化了日本与东盟国家间双边关系,为日本自身的国家战略转型提供路径支撑,但在地区层面上则导致东亚合作框架泛化、东盟中心地位弱化以及地区安全局势不稳。

印太视域下印度东南亚政策的再定位

2014年,纳伦德拉·莫迪就任印度新一任总理,提出“东向行动”政策,推动印度更加积极地参与到东南亚地区。随着近年来中印关系“高开低走”、美国“印太战略”持续具体化并赋予印度在“印太战略”中支点国家地位,印度逐步接受并积极响应“印太”概念,将美国深植于“印太战略”中的遏制中国意图作为美印双方的重要战略切合点。莫迪政府在“印太”概念下对其东南亚政策进行再定位与调整,主要表现为印度以海洋地缘视角审视自身战略环境,将东南亚地区作为重要外环,突出与东南亚地区在海洋领域的利益契合,提升与东盟的海上战略关系,以“蓝色经济”作为印度—东盟经济关系发展的新着力点并且重点在海上军事领域与东南亚地区开展多边和双边合作。随着莫迪开启第三任期以及印度与东南亚国家政治互信有所提升,预计印度会借力美国“印太战略”对它的倚重,在对东南亚政策上采取更加进取的态度,东南亚地区在印度对外战略中的重要性将持续增加;由于东南亚地区对印度在本地区事务的参与持欢迎态度,印度对东南亚地区局势的影响力不容小觑。

东南亚研究知识生产的本土化与国际化路径——以新加坡东南亚研究所的兴起为例

东南亚区域作为人文社科研究的试验田,是知识生产的重要场域。20世纪60年代,新加坡与美国、欧洲和澳大利亚东南亚研究知识网络相互连接,使其在知识生产国际化的背景下成为东南亚区域内部知识生产的中心。东南亚研究所(ISEAS)是新加坡独立后建立的第一个自主研究机构。在新加坡,东南亚区域研究与其国内政治之间呈现出政治推动—学界领衔、知识输出—政策参考的紧密关系。ISEAS开启的东南亚研究是东南亚地区的一场研究革命。从初期学习欧美的东南亚研究中心项目到吸引域内外流动学者从事在地研究,再到招聘固定学者,创办学术和政策刊物,出版东南亚研究著作,ISEAS稳步建设成为国际化与本土化相互交融的研究单元和网络。从知识生产的路径来看,ISEAS的兴起得益于本土化和国际化的稳步互动。ISEAS搭乘英语世界东南亚研究的“快车道”,迅速推进研究人员的国际化,在东南亚研究去殖民化和本土化的大背景下成为东南亚研究的一面旗帜。