Soil cracking is an important process influencing water and solutes transport in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley region of Southwest China. Studying the morphological development of soil cracks helps to further reveal the ...Soil cracking is an important process influencing water and solutes transport in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley region of Southwest China. Studying the morphological development of soil cracks helps to further reveal the close relationship between the soil cracking process and water movement in such semi-arid regions. Here we report regular changes on surface morphology of soil cracks with decreasing water in four different soils (Typ-Ustic Ferrisols,Ver-Ustic Ferrisols,Tru-Ustic Vertisols and Typ-Ustic Vertisols) through simulation experiments. Our results indicate the following: 1) Different soils ultimately have different development degrees of soil cracks,according to their various values of crack area density. Soil cracks in Typ-Ustic Ferrisols can only develop to the feeble degree,while those in the other three soils are capable of developing into the intensive degree,and even into the extremely intensive degree. 2) Soil crack complexity,as expressed by the value of the area-weighted mean of crack fractal dimension (AWMFRAC),is found to continuously decrease as a whole through the whole cracking process in all the studied soils. 3) Soil crack connectivity shows a uniform trend in the studied soils,that is to say,connectivity gradually increases with soil crack development.展开更多
Evaluation of regional tourism competitiveness has been a hot issue of tourism geography and regional economics in recent years. This study introduces system theory and Professor Porter's National Diamond Model in...Evaluation of regional tourism competitiveness has been a hot issue of tourism geography and regional economics in recent years. This study introduces system theory and Professor Porter's National Diamond Model into constructing the evaluation index system of regional tourism competitiveness, which includes four decisive factors, namely production factor, market, industry and support competitiveness. And by comprehensive use of subjective and objective methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) the appraised values were calculated. At the same time, the method was applied to dynamic demonstration analysis of the tourism competitiveness of the provinces in Southwest China from 2001 to 2005. The result shows that their tourism comprehensive competitiveness has distinct differences. The comprehensive competitiveness of Sichuan and Yunnan are better, Chongqing and Guangxi are in the middle, and Guizhou and Tibet are weak. According to the competitiveness ranks in 2001-2005, comprehensive, production factor, industry and support competitiveness changed a little and market competitiveness changed a lot. This competitive pattern has been made mostly because natural resource conditions and economic development levels of the provinces are very different and are difficult to be changed in a short period.展开更多
In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to be...In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% (10 yr)^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% (10 yr)^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% (10 yr)^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.展开更多
The parameters of hypocentral location are important fundamental data for the study of seismology and the earth interior physics; among them, the focal depth is a very important one but can hardly be measured with hig...The parameters of hypocentral location are important fundamental data for the study of seismology and the earth interior physics; among them, the focal depth is a very important one but can hardly be measured with higher precision. With the increase of seismic stations in number, the heightening of observation quality and the improvement of determination method, such a situation has been changed much. In this paper, the results of hypocentral location and re-location by 7 small-aperture digital seismic station networks at Tangshan, Zhangbei and Huailai of Hebei Province, Datong of Shanxi Province and Jianchuan, Luquan and Yao'an of Yunnan Province are used. Using these results together with those of focal depth inversion by far-field data of some individual large shocks in corresponding areas and those re-determined by the Linfen telemetered seismic network of Shanxi Province, a comparison with the results of focal depth determination in the past earthquake catalogues is made. It is found out that the focal depths determined by the small-aperture seismic networks are basically distributed in the range from the earth surface to ten-odd kilometers underground. In contrast, the focal depths determined in the past are mostly distributed at the depth range from the earth surface to 30 km underground. Besides, there is a difference of 50% to 100% between the average values of the two cases, which is quite an obvious one. From the result of analysis, it is considered that the results determined by the small-aperture seismic networks may be closer to the reality of focal depths distribution. That is to say, earthquakes in the above-mentioned areas should be distributed in the shallow part of the crust. The causes that lead to the above situation are discussed preliminarily, and some suggestions and measures for improving the precision of focal depth determination are put forward.展开更多
Interregional migration has broad and far-reaching impacts on regional urbanization process in ethnic minority areas of Southwest China.The previous literature of interregional migration paid less attention on the eth...Interregional migration has broad and far-reaching impacts on regional urbanization process in ethnic minority areas of Southwest China.The previous literature of interregional migration paid less attention on the ethnic minority areas with fragile geographical feature and marginal socio-economic context in the developing world due to the dearth of reliable data.Based on the 2015 national 1%population sampling survey at the village/community scale,taking Yulong Naxi Autonomous County,Yunnan Province,China as the case study,this paper analyzed the spatial differentiation pattern.The results showed that:(1)migration in Yulong Naxi Autonomous County exhibited obvious spatial differentiation characteristics in terms of population aggregation,population loss,migration direction,and migration activity;(2)the overall spatial differentiation of migration exhibited a"layer+sector"pattern in Yulong Naxi Autonomous County:the first layer was active areas with net inflows(<20 km from the seat of the county government),the second layer was inactive areas(within 20–60 km of the seat of the county government),and the third layer was a mixed"layer+sector"zone(>60 km to the seat of the county government),comprised of inactive areas and active areas with net outflows;(3)the spatial differentiation pattern of migration was highly correlated with the regional contexts including the regional economic development,regional transportation accessibility and regional social development,while regional physical geographical factors had insignificant relationships with the migration pattern.展开更多
Regional Landslide Susceptibility Zonation(LSZ) is always challenged by the available amount of field data, especially in southwestern China where large mountainous areas and limited field information coincide. Statis...Regional Landslide Susceptibility Zonation(LSZ) is always challenged by the available amount of field data, especially in southwestern China where large mountainous areas and limited field information coincide. Statistical learning algorithms are believed to be superior to traditional statistical algorithms for their data adaptability. The aim of the paper is to evaluate how statistical learning algorithms perform on regional LSZ with limited field data. The focus is on three statistical learning algorithms, Logistic Regression(LR), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machine(SVM). Hanzhong city, a landslide prone area in southwestern China is taken as a study case. Nine environmental factors are selected as inputs. The accuracies of the resulting LSZ maps are evaluated through landslide density analysis(LDA), receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves and Kappa index statistics. The dependence of the algorithm on the size of field samples is examined by varying the sizes of the training set. The SVM has proven to be the most accurate and the most stable algorithm at small training set sizes and on all known landslide sizes. The accuracy of SVM shows a steadilyincreasing trend and reaches a high level at a small size of the training set, while accuracies of LR and ANN algorithms show distinct fluctuations. The geomorphological interpretations confirm the strength of SVM on all landslide sizes. Our results show that the strengths of SVM in generalization capability and model robustness make it an appropriate and efficient tool for regional LSZ with limited landslide field samples.展开更多
Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurren...Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquakedrought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity(frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change(amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economicpoint of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include(1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making;(2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012;(3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters;(4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.展开更多
An objective identifi cation technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) and the daily composite-drought index (CI) at 101 stations in Southwest China (including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Chongqing) are u...An objective identifi cation technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) and the daily composite-drought index (CI) at 101 stations in Southwest China (including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Chongqing) are used to detect regional meteorological drought events between 1960 and 2010. Values of the parameters of the OITREE method are determined. A total of 87 drought events are identifi ed, including 9 extreme events. The 2009-2010 drought is the most serious in Southwest China during the past 50 years. The regional meteorological drought events during 1960-2010 generally last for 10-80 days, with the longest being 231 days. Droughts are more common from November to next April, and less common in the remaining months. Droughts occur more often and with greater intensity in Yunnan and southern Sichuan than in other parts of Southwest China. Strong (extreme and severe) regional meteorological drought events can be divided into fi ve types. The southern type has occurred most frequently, and Yunnan is the area most frequently stricken by extreme and severe drought events. The regional meteorological drought events in Southwest China have increased in both frequency and intensity over the study period, and the main reason appears to be a signifi cant decrease in precipitation over this region, but a simultaneous increase in temperature also contributes.展开更多
基于《中国三千年疫灾史料汇编》中民国卷的全国疫灾史料,提取整理出西南地区各县域逐年疫灾发生的时间序列并进行空间分布可视化。结合英国东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)提供的逐...基于《中国三千年疫灾史料汇编》中民国卷的全国疫灾史料,提取整理出西南地区各县域逐年疫灾发生的时间序列并进行空间分布可视化。结合英国东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)提供的逐月气温数据集CRU TS v.4.05,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen斜率、热点分析及相关分析等方法研究气温变化、疫灾事件以及两者之间的关联性。结果表明:(1)民国时期西南地区每年均有疫灾发生,共发生疫灾4170次,平均每年约发生110次;波及共计3256县次,平均每年约发生86县;民国后期疫灾程度严重,频次与县次均呈现波动上升趋势,具有同步性;(2)平均温度整体表现为波动上升,空间分布上自东南向西北方向逐级递减,绝大部分为逐年上升趋势;(3)疫灾频次与温度具有显著正相关,夏秋疫灾多发,冬季少发;空间上有75.16%的研究区疫灾累积年数与平均气温呈现正相关,说明高温环境有利于疫灾的流行。(4)气温突变和波动幅度对疫灾的发生具有显著的影响,气温波动幅度大时,疫灾发生较多。展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40901009)National Key Technologies Research and Development Program in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of China (No. 2008BAD98B02, 2006BAC01A11)+1 种基金the Western Light Program of Talents Cultivating of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2008)the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Soil cracking is an important process influencing water and solutes transport in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley region of Southwest China. Studying the morphological development of soil cracks helps to further reveal the close relationship between the soil cracking process and water movement in such semi-arid regions. Here we report regular changes on surface morphology of soil cracks with decreasing water in four different soils (Typ-Ustic Ferrisols,Ver-Ustic Ferrisols,Tru-Ustic Vertisols and Typ-Ustic Vertisols) through simulation experiments. Our results indicate the following: 1) Different soils ultimately have different development degrees of soil cracks,according to their various values of crack area density. Soil cracks in Typ-Ustic Ferrisols can only develop to the feeble degree,while those in the other three soils are capable of developing into the intensive degree,and even into the extremely intensive degree. 2) Soil crack complexity,as expressed by the value of the area-weighted mean of crack fractal dimension (AWMFRAC),is found to continuously decrease as a whole through the whole cracking process in all the studied soils. 3) Soil crack connectivity shows a uniform trend in the studied soils,that is to say,connectivity gradually increases with soil crack development.
基金This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40501074).
文摘Evaluation of regional tourism competitiveness has been a hot issue of tourism geography and regional economics in recent years. This study introduces system theory and Professor Porter's National Diamond Model into constructing the evaluation index system of regional tourism competitiveness, which includes four decisive factors, namely production factor, market, industry and support competitiveness. And by comprehensive use of subjective and objective methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) the appraised values were calculated. At the same time, the method was applied to dynamic demonstration analysis of the tourism competitiveness of the provinces in Southwest China from 2001 to 2005. The result shows that their tourism comprehensive competitiveness has distinct differences. The comprehensive competitiveness of Sichuan and Yunnan are better, Chongqing and Guangxi are in the middle, and Guizhou and Tibet are weak. According to the competitiveness ranks in 2001-2005, comprehensive, production factor, industry and support competitiveness changed a little and market competitiveness changed a lot. This competitive pattern has been made mostly because natural resource conditions and economic development levels of the provinces are very different and are difficult to be changed in a short period.
基金jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2016YFE0102400 and 2017YFC1502701)the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% (10 yr)^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% (10 yr)^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% (10 yr)^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.
基金State Natural Science Foundation (49974006) National Key Basic Research Project (G199804070401).
文摘The parameters of hypocentral location are important fundamental data for the study of seismology and the earth interior physics; among them, the focal depth is a very important one but can hardly be measured with higher precision. With the increase of seismic stations in number, the heightening of observation quality and the improvement of determination method, such a situation has been changed much. In this paper, the results of hypocentral location and re-location by 7 small-aperture digital seismic station networks at Tangshan, Zhangbei and Huailai of Hebei Province, Datong of Shanxi Province and Jianchuan, Luquan and Yao'an of Yunnan Province are used. Using these results together with those of focal depth inversion by far-field data of some individual large shocks in corresponding areas and those re-determined by the Linfen telemetered seismic network of Shanxi Province, a comparison with the results of focal depth determination in the past earthquake catalogues is made. It is found out that the focal depths determined by the small-aperture seismic networks are basically distributed in the range from the earth surface to ten-odd kilometers underground. In contrast, the focal depths determined in the past are mostly distributed at the depth range from the earth surface to 30 km underground. Besides, there is a difference of 50% to 100% between the average values of the two cases, which is quite an obvious one. From the result of analysis, it is considered that the results determined by the small-aperture seismic networks may be closer to the reality of focal depths distribution. That is to say, earthquakes in the above-mentioned areas should be distributed in the shallow part of the crust. The causes that lead to the above situation are discussed preliminarily, and some suggestions and measures for improving the precision of focal depth determination are put forward.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930644).
文摘Interregional migration has broad and far-reaching impacts on regional urbanization process in ethnic minority areas of Southwest China.The previous literature of interregional migration paid less attention on the ethnic minority areas with fragile geographical feature and marginal socio-economic context in the developing world due to the dearth of reliable data.Based on the 2015 national 1%population sampling survey at the village/community scale,taking Yulong Naxi Autonomous County,Yunnan Province,China as the case study,this paper analyzed the spatial differentiation pattern.The results showed that:(1)migration in Yulong Naxi Autonomous County exhibited obvious spatial differentiation characteristics in terms of population aggregation,population loss,migration direction,and migration activity;(2)the overall spatial differentiation of migration exhibited a"layer+sector"pattern in Yulong Naxi Autonomous County:the first layer was active areas with net inflows(<20 km from the seat of the county government),the second layer was inactive areas(within 20–60 km of the seat of the county government),and the third layer was a mixed"layer+sector"zone(>60 km to the seat of the county government),comprised of inactive areas and active areas with net outflows;(3)the spatial differentiation pattern of migration was highly correlated with the regional contexts including the regional economic development,regional transportation accessibility and regional social development,while regional physical geographical factors had insignificant relationships with the migration pattern.
基金supported by the open fund of Key Laboratory of Geoscience Spatial Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resource of the China (Grant No. KLGSIT2013-15)The GIS-studio (www.gis-studio.nl) of the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) is acknowledged for computational support
文摘Regional Landslide Susceptibility Zonation(LSZ) is always challenged by the available amount of field data, especially in southwestern China where large mountainous areas and limited field information coincide. Statistical learning algorithms are believed to be superior to traditional statistical algorithms for their data adaptability. The aim of the paper is to evaluate how statistical learning algorithms perform on regional LSZ with limited field data. The focus is on three statistical learning algorithms, Logistic Regression(LR), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machine(SVM). Hanzhong city, a landslide prone area in southwestern China is taken as a study case. Nine environmental factors are selected as inputs. The accuracies of the resulting LSZ maps are evaluated through landslide density analysis(LDA), receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves and Kappa index statistics. The dependence of the algorithm on the size of field samples is examined by varying the sizes of the training set. The SVM has proven to be the most accurate and the most stable algorithm at small training set sizes and on all known landslide sizes. The accuracy of SVM shows a steadilyincreasing trend and reaches a high level at a small size of the training set, while accuracies of LR and ANN algorithms show distinct fluctuations. The geomorphological interpretations confirm the strength of SVM on all landslide sizes. Our results show that the strengths of SVM in generalization capability and model robustness make it an appropriate and efficient tool for regional LSZ with limited landslide field samples.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41671112 and 41861134008)National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2018YFC1505202)Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan Project Key research and development projects(Grant No.18ZDYF0329)
文摘Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquakedrought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity(frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change(amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economicpoint of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include(1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making;(2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012;(3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters;(4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175075)Climate Change Special Fund of the China Meteorological Administration(CCSF201333)
文摘An objective identifi cation technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) and the daily composite-drought index (CI) at 101 stations in Southwest China (including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Chongqing) are used to detect regional meteorological drought events between 1960 and 2010. Values of the parameters of the OITREE method are determined. A total of 87 drought events are identifi ed, including 9 extreme events. The 2009-2010 drought is the most serious in Southwest China during the past 50 years. The regional meteorological drought events during 1960-2010 generally last for 10-80 days, with the longest being 231 days. Droughts are more common from November to next April, and less common in the remaining months. Droughts occur more often and with greater intensity in Yunnan and southern Sichuan than in other parts of Southwest China. Strong (extreme and severe) regional meteorological drought events can be divided into fi ve types. The southern type has occurred most frequently, and Yunnan is the area most frequently stricken by extreme and severe drought events. The regional meteorological drought events in Southwest China have increased in both frequency and intensity over the study period, and the main reason appears to be a signifi cant decrease in precipitation over this region, but a simultaneous increase in temperature also contributes.
文摘基于《中国三千年疫灾史料汇编》中民国卷的全国疫灾史料,提取整理出西南地区各县域逐年疫灾发生的时间序列并进行空间分布可视化。结合英国东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)提供的逐月气温数据集CRU TS v.4.05,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen斜率、热点分析及相关分析等方法研究气温变化、疫灾事件以及两者之间的关联性。结果表明:(1)民国时期西南地区每年均有疫灾发生,共发生疫灾4170次,平均每年约发生110次;波及共计3256县次,平均每年约发生86县;民国后期疫灾程度严重,频次与县次均呈现波动上升趋势,具有同步性;(2)平均温度整体表现为波动上升,空间分布上自东南向西北方向逐级递减,绝大部分为逐年上升趋势;(3)疫灾频次与温度具有显著正相关,夏秋疫灾多发,冬季少发;空间上有75.16%的研究区疫灾累积年数与平均气温呈现正相关,说明高温环境有利于疫灾的流行。(4)气温突变和波动幅度对疫灾的发生具有显著的影响,气温波动幅度大时,疫灾发生较多。