Design of a spatial sampling scheme considering the spatial autocorrelation of crop acreage included in the sampling units

Information on crop acreage is important for formulating national food polices and economic planning. Spatial sampling, a combination of traditional sampling methods and remote sensing and geographic information system （GIS） technology, provides an efficient way to estimate crop acreage at the regional scale. Traditional sampling methods require that the sampling units should be independent of each other, but in practice there is often spatial autocorrelation among crop acreage contained in the sampling units. In this study, using Dehui County in Jilin Province, China, as the study area, we used a thematic crop map derived from Systeme Probatoire d＇Observation de la Terre （SPOT-5） imagery, cultivated land plots and digital elevation model data to explore the spatial autocorrelation characteristics among maize and rice acreage included in sampling units of different sizes, and analyzed the effects of different stratification criteria on the level of spatial autocorrelation of the two crop acreages within the sampling units. Moran＇s/, a global spatial autocorrelation index, was used to evaluate the spatial autocorrelation among the two crop acreages in this study. The results showed that although the spatial autocorrelation level among maize and rice acreages within the sampling units generally decreased with increasing sampling unit size, there was still a significant spatial autocorrelation among the two crop acreages included in the sampling units （Moran＇s / varied from 0.49 to 0.89）, irrespective of the sampling unit size. When the sampling unit size was less than 3000 m, the stratification design that used crop planting intensity （CPI） as the stratification criterion, with a stratum number of 5 and a stratum interval of 20% decreased the spatial autocorrelation level to almost zero for the maize and rice area included in sampling units within each stratum. Therefore, the traditional sampling methods can be used to estimate the two crop acreages. Compared with CPI, there was still a strong spatial correlation among the two crop acreages included in the sampling units belonging to each stratum when cultivated land fragmentation and ground slope were used as stratification criterion. As far as the selection of stratification criteria and sampling unit size is concerned, this study provides a basis for formulating a reasonable spatial sampling scheme to estimate crop acreage.

STUDY ON SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF URBAN LAND PRICE DISTRIBUTION IN CHANGZHOU CITY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

This paper uses a spatial statistics method based on the calculation of spatial autocorrelation as a possible approach for modeling and quantifying the distribution of urban land price in Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province. GIS and spatial statistics provide a useful way for describing the distribution of urban land price both spatially and temporally, and have proved to be useful for understanding land price distribution pattern better. In this paper, we apply the statistical analysis method to 8379 urban land price samples collected from Changzhou Land Market, and it is turned out that the proposed approach can effectively identify the spatial clusters and local point patterns in dataset and forms a general method for conceptualizing the land price structure. The results show that land price structure in Changzhou City is very complex and that even where there is a high spatial autocorrelation, the land price is still relatively heterogeneous. Furthermore, lands for different uses have different degrees of spatial autocorrelation. Spatial autocorrelation of commercial lands is more intense than that of residential and industrial lands in regional central district. This means that treating land price as integration of homogeneous units can limit analysis of pattern, over-simplifying the structure of land price, but the methods, just as the autocorrelation approaches, are useful tools for quantifying the variables of land price.

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequality, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration. Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provided effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality. This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 (2001 absent). The result indicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer counties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province. This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional economic analysis.

The impact of spatial autocorrelation on CPUE standardization between two different fisheries

Catch per unit of eff ort(CPUE) data can display spatial autocorrelation. However, most of the CPUE standardization methods developed so far assumes independency of observations for the dependent variable, which is often invalid. In this study, we collected data of two fisheries, squid jigging fishery and mackerel trawl fishery. We used standard generalized linear model(GLM) and spatial GLMs to compare the impact of spatial autocorrelation on CPUE standardization for different fisheries. We found that spatialGLMs perform better than standard-GLM for both fisheries. The overestimation of precision of CPUE estimates was observed in both fisheries. Moran's I was used to quantify the level of autocorrelation for the two fisheries. The results show that autocorrelation in mackerel trawl fishery was much stronger than that in squid jigging fishery. According to the results of this paper, we highly recommend to account for spatial autocorrelation when using GLM to standardize CPUE data derived from commercial fisheries.

Spatial Autocorrelation and Localization of Urban Development

A nonlinear analysis of urban evolution is made by using of spatial autocorrelation theory. A first-order nonlinear autoregression model based on Clark’s negative exponential model is proposed to show urban population density. The new method and model are applied to Hangzhou City, China, as an example. The average distance of population activities, the auto-correlation coefficient of urban population density, and the auto-regressive function values all show trends of gradual increase from 1964 to 2000, but there always is a sharp first-order cutoff in the partial auto- correlations. These results indicate that urban development is a process of localization. The discovery of urban locality is significant to improve the cellular-automata-based urban simulation of modeling spatial complexity.

Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation Patterns of Heavy and Super-Heavy Rainfall in Iran

Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran＇s heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord Gi statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

Research on the Variation of Population Distribution and Its Characteristics Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Method: A Case Study of Poyang Lake Region in Jiangxi Province

According to Statistical Yearbook of Jiangxi Province(2001～2006),We analyze the time-space variation of population distribution of Poyang Lake region from the two points of view.The former is quality of population,which involves culture structure,occupational structure,age structure and sex structure of population.The latter is quantity of population,which only involves the amount of population.Furthermore,we can reveal the internal relations and action mechanism of variation of population distribution by analyzing the regional economic development,population urbanization,land use and ecological landscape of Poyang Lake region.It is important to provide help for region planning,ecological landscape planning and environmental protection by correct understanding the man-land relationship of natural-human ecosystem in Poyang Lake region.

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of Genetic Structure of Zelkova schneideriana in Mailing Town,Guangxi

We analyzed the fine-scale spatial genetic structure of the individuals of Zelkova schneideriana , which were classified by age using the spatial autocorrelation method, to quantify spatial patterns of genetic variation within the population and to explore potential mechanisms that determine genetic variation in population. The spatial autocorrelation coefficient （ r ） at 13 distance classes was determined on the basis of both geographical distance and genetic distance matrix which was derived from co-dominant SSR data using GenAlEx software. The results showed that all the individuals of Z. schneideriana exhibited significantly positive spatial genetic structure at distance less than 40 m （the X -intercept was 53.568）, indicating that the average length of the smallest genetic patch for the same genotype clustering of the Z. schneideriana Mailing population was about 50 m. Limited seed dispersal is the main factor that leads to the spatial genetic variation within populations. The individuals in age Class II showed significantly positive spatial genetic structure at distance less than 30 m （the X -intercept was 47.882）, while the individuals in age Class I and age Class III showed no significant spatial genetic structure in any of the spatial distance classes. Z. schneideriana is a long-lived perennial plant; the self-thinning resulted from the cohort competition between individuals in the growing process may lead to this certain spatial structure in age Class III of Z. schneideriana population.

Investigating the Existence of Second Order Spatial Autocorrelation in Crash Frequency across Adjacent Freeway Segments

This study developed spatial Poisson model to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in crash frequency across contagious freeway segments. Spatial autocorrelation is the presence of spatial pattern in crash frequency over space due to geographic proximity. Usually crash caused congestion on a freeway segment propagates upstream and creates chance of occurring secondary crashes. This phenomenon makes the crash frequency on the contiguous freeway segments correlated. This correlation makes the distributional assumption of independence of crash frequency invalid. The existence of spatial autocorrelation is investigated by using Conditional autoregressive models (CAR models). The models are set up in a Bayesian modeling framework, to include terms which help to identify and quantify residual spatial autocorrelation for neighboring observation units. Models which recognize the presence of spatial dependence help to obtain unbiased estimates of parameters quantifying safety levels since the effects of spatial autocorrelation are accounted for in the modeling process. Based on CAR models, approximately 51% of crash frequencies across contiguous freeway segments are spatially auto-correlated. The incident rate ratios revealed that wider shoulder and weaving segments decreased crash frequency by factors of 0.84 and 0.75 respectively. The marginal impacts graphs showed that an increase in longitudinal space for segments with two lanes decreased crash frequency. However, an increase of facility width above three lanes results in more crashes, which indicates an increase in traffic flows and driving behavior leading to crashes. These results call an important step of analyzing contagious freeway segments simultaneously to account for the existence of spatial autocorrelation.

Enhancing transboundary natural tourism resources governance:unveiling the spatial pattern and its influencing factors

Tourism resources that span provincial boundaries in China play a pivotal role in regional development,yet effective governance poses persistent challenges.This study addresses this issue by constructing a comprehensive database of transboundary natural tourism resources(TNTR)through amalgamation of diverse data sources.Utilizing the Getis-Ord Gi^(*),kernel density estimation,and geographical detectors,we scrutinize the spatial patterns of TNTR,focusing on both named and unnamed entities,while exploring the influencing factors.Our findings reveal 7883 identified TNTR in China,with mountain tourism resources emerging as the predominant type.Among provinces,Hunan boasts the highest count,while Shanghai exhibits the lowest.Southern China demonstrates a pronounced clustering trend in TNTR distribution,with the spatial arrangement of biological landscapes appearing more random compared to geological and water landscapes.Western China,characterized by intricate terrain,exhibits fewer TNTR,concurrently unveiling a significant presence of unnamed natural tourism resources.Crucially,administrative segmentation influences TNTR development,generating disparities in regional goals,developmental stages and intensities,and management approaches.In response to these variations,we advocate for strengthening the naming of the unnamed transboundary tourism resources,constructing a geographic database of TNTR for government and establishing a collaborative management mechanism based on TNTR database.Our research contributes to elucidating the intricate landscape of TNTR,offering insights for tailored governance strategies in the realm of cross-provincial tourism resource management.

Spatial Analysis of the Aging Population and Socio-economic Factors of China:Global and Local Perspectives

Population aging has become an inevitable trend and exerted profound influences on socio-economic development in China.In this study,we utilized data from national population census and statistical yearbooks in 2010 and 2020 to explore spatio-temporal patterns of aging population and its coupling correlations with socio-economic factors from both global and local perspectives.The results from Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA)uncover notable spatial disparities in aging population rates,with higher rates concentrated in the eastern regions and lower rates in the western areas of the Chinese mainland.The results from the global correlation analysis with the changes in aging population rates show significant positive correlations with government interventions and industrial structures,but negatively correlated with economic development,social consumption,and medical facilities.From a local perspective,a Geographically Weighted(GW)correlation analysis is employed to uncover local correlations between aging trends and socio-economic factors.The insights gained from this technique not only underscore the complexity and diversity of economic implications stemming from population aging,but also provide invaluable guidance for crafting region-specific economic policies tailored to various stages of population aging.

Evaluation of COVID-19 Cases and Vaccinations in the State of Georgia, United States: A Spatial Perspective

This study evaluates the distribution of COVID-19 cases and mass vaccination campaigns from January 2020 to April 2023. There are over 235,000 COVID-19 cases and over 733,000 vaccinations across the 159 counties in the state of Georgia. Data on COVID-19 was acquired from usafact.org while the vaccination records were obtained from COVID-19 vaccination tracker. The spatial patterns across the counties were analyzed using spatial statistical techniques which include both global and local spatial autocorrelation. The study further evaluates the effect of vaccination and selected socio-economic predictors on COVID-19 cases across the study area. The result of hotspot analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 are distributed across Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett, and DeKalb counties. It was also affirmed that the vaccination records followed the same pattern as COVID-19 cases’ epicenters. The result of the spatial error model performed well and accounted for a considerable percentage of the regression with an adjusted R squared of 0.68, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) 387.682 and Breusch-Pagan of 9.8091. ESDA was employed to select the main explanatory variables. The selected variables include vaccination, population density, percentage of people that do not have health insurance, black race, Hispanic and these variables accounted for 68% of the number of COVID-19 cases in the state of Georgia during the study period. The study concludes that both COVID-19 cases and vaccinated individuals have spatial peculiarities across counties in Georgia state. Lastly, socio-economic variables and vaccination are very important to reduce the vulnerability of individuals to COVID-19 disease.

Spatial Morphology Evolution Characteristics Analysis of the Resident Population Distribution in Henan, China

The population spatial distribution pattern and its evolving pattern play an important role in regional allocation of social resources and production factors, formulation of regional development plans, construction of a better life society, and promotion of regional economic development. Based on the resident population statistics data of Henan province from 2006 to 2021, with county as the basic study unit, the paper studies the spatial morphology characteristics and its evolution patterns of resident population distribution, by using spatial analysis methods such as population distribution center, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial auto correlation analysis. The results show that: the resident population spatial distribution shows unbalanced state, the population agglomeration areas mainly distribute in the northeast part and north part, where the resident population growth rate is significantly higher than other regions, over time, this trend is gradually becoming significant. The resident population distribution has a trend of centripetal concentration, with the degree and trend of centripetal gradually strengthening. The resident population distribution has obvious directional characteristics, but the significance is not high, the weighted resident population average center is approximately located at (4.13740˚N, 113.8935˚E), and the azimuth of the distribution axis is approximately 11.19˚. The population distribution has obvious agglomeration characteristics, with the built-up areas of Zhengzhou and Luoyang as their centers, where have a significant siphon effect on the surrounding population. The southern and southwestern regions in the province form a relatively stable belt area of Low-Low agglomeration areas.

Analyzing and modeling the coverage of vegetation in the Qaidam Basin of China： The role of spatial autocorrelation

Relationship between vegetation and environmental factors has always been a major topic in ecology, but it has also been an important way to reveal vegetation＇s dynamic response to and feedback effects on climate change. For the special geographical location and climatic characteristics of the Qaidam Basin, with the support of traditional and remote sensing data, in this paper a vegetation coverage model was established. The quantitative prediction of vegetation coverage by five environmental factors was initially realized through multiple stepwise regression （MSR） models. However, there is significant multicollinearity among these five environmental factors, which reduces the performance of the MSR model. Then through the introduction of the Moran Index, an indicator that reflects the spatial autocorrelation of vegetation distribution, only two variables of average annual rainfall and local Moran Index were used in the final establishment of the vegetation coverage model. The results show that there is significant spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of vegetation. The role of spatial autocorrelation in the establishment of vegetation coverage model has not only improved the model fitting R2 from 0.608 to 0.656, but also removed the multicollinearity among independents.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the natural plague foci of Chinese Mongolian gerbils based on spatial autocorrelation

Background:The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague,which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus,but also to reveal its cluster rule.This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014,in order to predict plague outbreaks.Methods:Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils.Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods.The quantity of M.unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Results:The epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index.High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high.In terms of time series,the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007,declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009,and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014.For the spatial change,the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007,and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008.Conclusions:The body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation.The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation,the human activity and natural factors.

Analyzing the spatial autocorrelation of regional urban datum land price

This study focuses on spatial autocorrelation and the spatial distribution of urban land prices from a regional perspective.Taking Hubei province,China,as a case study area,spatial autocorrelation degree,spatial autocorrelation pattern,and the mechanism of its formation were discussed.The study employs Moran’s I,local Moran’s I,and Moran’s I correlogram to analyze spatial autocorrelation degree and its change along with contiguity order.Some local clustering hot spots are found.This paper uses semi-variance statistic for land price based on route distance to find the spatial autocorrelation scale.We also adopt spatial clustering based on a kind of composite distance to probe into the clustering characteristic of land prices.By Moran’s I and Moran’s I correlogram,we find that datum price of the cities in Hubei province has faint spatial autocorrelation degree at the first and the second-order contiguity.Spatial variance hints that the scale of the autocorrelation is about 200 km in route distance.Spatial clustering result indicates that the spatial distribution of city land price is a kind of hierarchy structure similar to administrative regions.From principal factors analysis and stepwise linear regression,we find that the value added of city secondary and tertiary industry and the urban population are two of the most influential factors to urban datum land price.The value added of city secondary and tertiary industry has higher spatial autocorrelation than urban datum land price and has a bigger autocorrelation scale.But urban population has little spatial autocorrelation.It can be inferred that the spatial autocorrelation of urban land price is mainly caused by economic spatial autocorrelation.But its spatial autocorrelation degree is lower than economic factors because urban datum land price is also influenced by other special local factors,such as population,city infrastructure,land supply,etc.

Temporal and spatial responses of ecological resilience to climate change and human activities in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China

In the Anthropocene era,human activities have become increasingly complex and diversified.The natural ecosystems need higher ecological resilience to ensure regional sustainable development due to rapid urbanization and industrialization as well as other intensified human activities,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.In the study,we chose the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China as a case study.By collecting geographic data and statistical data from 2010 and 2020,we constructed an ecological resilience assessment model based on the ecosystem habitat quality(EHQ),ecosystem landscape stability(ELS),and ecosystem service value(ESV).Further,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ecological resilience in the EBNSTM from 2010 to 2020 by spatial autocorrelation analysis,and explored its responses to climate change and human activities using the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.The results showed that the ecological resilience of the EBNSTM was at a low level and increased from 0.2732 to 0.2773 during 2010–2020.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of ecological resilience exhibited a spatial heterogeneity characteristic of"high in the western region and low in the eastern region",and the spatial clustering trend was enhanced during the study period.Desert,Gobi and rapidly urbanized areas showed low level of ecological resilience,and oasis and mountain areas exhibited high level of ecological resilience.Climate factors had an important impact on ecological resilience.Specifically,average annual temperature and annual precipitation were the key climate factors that improved ecological resilience,while average annual evapotranspiration was the main factor that blocked ecological resilience.Among the human activity factors,the distance from the main road showed a negative correlation with ecological resilience.Both night light index and PM2.5 concentration were negatively correlated with ecological resilience in the areas with better ecological conditions,whereas in the areas with poorer ecological conditions,the correlations were positive.The research findings could provide a scientific reference for protecting the ecological environment and promoting the harmony and stability of the human-land relationship in arid and semi-arid areas.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

Measuring urban thermal environment from accessibility-based perspective:A case study in a populous city

Understanding the spatial interaction among residents,cooling service,and heat risk area in complex urban areas is conducive to developing targeted management.However,traditional urban thermal environment assessments typically relied on simple linear integration of associated indicators,often neglecting the spatial interaction effect.To explore the spatial interaction among the three elements,this study proposes an accessibility-based urban thermal environment assessment framework.Using Zhengzhou,a rapidly urbanizing city,as an example,remotely sensed images from three periods(2010,2015 and 2020)were applied to extract urban green space(UGS)and hot island area(HIA).An improved two-step floating catchment area(2SFCA)method and bivariate local Moran’s I were employed to explore whether residents’clustering locations are more likely to access cooling service or to be exposed to heat risk.The results demonstrate that the UGS in the city has been expanding,whereas the HIA shrank within the inner city in 2015 and then increased in 2020.Even though the urban thermal environment may have improved in the last decade,the spatial interaction among the residents,cooling service and heat risk area could be exacerbated.Spatial autocorrelation shows an increase in locations that are disadvantageous for resident congregation.Even when sufficient cooling services were provided,residents in these areas could still be exposed to high heat risk.The developed urban thermal environment framework provides a novel insight into the residents’heat risk exposure and cooling service accessibility,and the findings could assist urban planners in targeting the improvement of extra heat exposure risk locations.

Study on the Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Henan Province

This study utilized census data from Henan Province for the years 2000,2010,and 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of population aging,defined by the proportion of the population aged 65 and above.Employing spatial analysis techniques such as spatial autocorrelation and the standard deviation ellipse,the research mapped out the progression and distribution of aging demographics.Furthermore,the study delved into the influencing factors of aging using an optimal parameters-based geographical detector.Results indicate a deepening degree of population aging in Henan Province,transitioning from an adult type to an old type structure.There is a marked positive spatial correlation among counties,with high-value aging areas initially decreasing,then increasing,and notably spreading from the central to the central and southern regions of the province.The center of gravity for population aging,specifically around Changge City and Xuchang City,exhibits a trajectory moving southeast before shifting northwest.Factor detection reveals that in 2000,2010,and 2020,the elderly dependency ratio predominantly influences the aging trend,with explanatory powers of 88.4%,87.9%,and 90.9%,respectively.Interaction analysis indicates that the interaction between the old-child ratio and the elderly dependency ratio has a strong explanatory power for the aging patterns in Henan Province,reaching 97.3%,97.0%,and 97.4%,respectively.