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Statistical study on the spatial - temporal distribution features of the arctic sea ice extent
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作者 Wang Xiaolan, Fan Zhongxiu,Peng Gongbing and Zhou Enji Hohai University, Nanjing,China Institute of Geography,Academia Sinica,Beijing,China 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1990年第3期373-387,共15页
On the basis of the arctic monthly mean sea ice extent data set during 1953-1984, the arctic region is divided into eight subregions,and the analyses of empirical orthogonal functions, power spectrum and maximum entro... On the basis of the arctic monthly mean sea ice extent data set during 1953-1984, the arctic region is divided into eight subregions,and the analyses of empirical orthogonal functions, power spectrum and maximum entropy spectrum are made to indentify the major spatial and temporal features of the sea ice fluctuations within 32-year period. And then, a brief appropriate physical explanation is tentatively suggested. The results show that both seasonal and non-seasonal variations of the sea ice extent are remarkable, and iis mean annual peripheral positions as well as their interannu-al shifting amplitudes are quite different among all subregions. These features are primarily affected by solar radiation, o-cean circulation, sea surface temperature and maritime-continental contrast, while the non-seasonal variations are most possibly affected by the cosmic-geophysical factors such as earth pole shife, earth rotation oscillation and solar activity. 展开更多
关键词 temporal distribution features of the arctic sea ice extent Statistical study on the spatial
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Comparisons of passive microwave remote sensing sea ice concentrations with ship-based visual observations during the CHINARE Arctic summer cruises of 2010–2018 被引量:6
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作者 Yuanren Xiu Zhijun Li +3 位作者 Ruibo Lei Qingkai Wang Peng Lu Matti Leppäranta 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第9期38-49,共12页
In order to apply satellite data to guiding navigation in the Arctic more effectively,the sea ice concentrations(SIC)derived from passive microwave(PM)products were compared with ship-based visual observations(OBS)col... In order to apply satellite data to guiding navigation in the Arctic more effectively,the sea ice concentrations(SIC)derived from passive microwave(PM)products were compared with ship-based visual observations(OBS)collected during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions(CHINARE).A total of 3667 observations were collected in the Arctic summers of 2010,2012,2014,2016,and 2018.PM SIC were derived from the NASA-Team(NT),Bootstrap(BT)and Climate Data Record(CDR)algorithms based on the SSMIS sensor,as well as the BT,enhanced NASA-Team(NT2)and ARTIST Sea Ice(ASI)algorithms based on AMSR-E/AMSR-2 sensors.The daily arithmetic average of PM SIC values and the daily weighted average of OBS SIC values were used for the comparisons.The correlation coefficients(CC),biases and root mean square deviations(RMSD)between PM SIC and OBS SIC were compared in terms of the overall trend,and under mild/normal/severe ice conditions.Using the OBS data,the influences of floe size and ice thickness on the SIC retrieval of different PM products were evaluated by calculating the daily weighted average of floe size code and ice thickness.Our results show that CC values range from 0.89(AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2)to 0.95(SSMIS NT),biases range from−3.96%(SSMIS NT)to 12.05%(AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2),and RMSD values range from 10.81%(SSMIS NT)to 20.15%(AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2).Floe size has a significant influence on the SIC retrievals of the PM products,and most of the PM products tend to underestimate SIC under smaller floe size conditions and overestimate SIC under larger floe size conditions.Ice thickness thicker than 30 cm does not have a significant influence on the SIC retrieval of PM products.Overall,the best(worst)agreement occurs between OBS SIC and SSMIS NT(AMSR-E/AMSR-2 NT2)SIC in the Arctic summer. 展开更多
关键词 sea ice concentration passive microwave remote sensing ship-based visual observations arctic navigation summer
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Spatio-temporal Variation of Arctic Sea Ice in Summer from 2003 to 2013 被引量:1
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作者 WU Mengquan JIA Lili +1 位作者 XING Qianguo SONG Xiaodong 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第1期38-46,共9页
The variation in Arctic sea ice has significant implications for climate change due to its huge influence on the global heat balance. In this study, we quantified the spatio-temporal variation of Arctic sea ice distri... The variation in Arctic sea ice has significant implications for climate change due to its huge influence on the global heat balance. In this study, we quantified the spatio-temporal variation of Arctic sea ice distribution using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer(AMSR-E) sea-ice concentration data from 2003 to 2013. The results found that, over this period, the extent of sea ice reached a maximum in 2004, whereas in 2007 and 2012, the extent of summer sea ice was at a minimum. It declined continuously from 2010 to 2012, falling to its lowest level since 2003. Sea-ice extent fell continuously each summer between July and mid-September before increasing again. It decreased most rapidly in September, and the summer reduction rate was 1.35 × 10~5 km^2/yr, twice as fast as the rate between 1979 and 2006, and slightly slower than from 2002 to 2011. Area with >90% sea-ice concentration decreased by 1.32 × 10~7 km^2/yr, while locations with >50% sea-ice concentration, which were mainly covered by perennial ice, were near the North Pole, the Beaufort Sea, and the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Perennial Arctic ice decreased at a rate of 1.54 × 10~5 km^2 annually over the past 11 years. 展开更多
关键词 sea ice Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) climate change arctic summer
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Effects of spring Arctic sea ice on summer drought in the middle and high latitudes of Asia 被引量:1
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作者 Dong Chen Ya Gao +1 位作者 Ying Zhang Tao Wang 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2022年第3期6-10,共5页
Based on data observed from 1979 to 2017,the influence of Arctic sea ice in the previous spring on the first mode of interannual variation in summer drought in the middle and high latitudes of Asia(MHA)is analyzed in ... Based on data observed from 1979 to 2017,the influence of Arctic sea ice in the previous spring on the first mode of interannual variation in summer drought in the middle and high latitudes of Asia(MHA)is analyzed in this paper,and the possible associated physical mechanism is discussed.The results show that when there is more sea ice near the Svalbard Islands in spring while the sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea decreases,the drought distribution in the MHA shows a north-south dipole pattern in late summer,and drought weakens in the northern MHA region and strengthens in the southern MHA region.By analyzing the main physical process affecting these changes,the change in sea ice in spring is found to lead to the Polar-Eurasian teleconnection pattern,resulting in more precipitation,thicker snow depths,higher temperatures,and higher soil moisture in the northern MHA region in spring and less precipitation,smaller snow depths,and lower soil moisture in the southern MHA region.Such soil conditions last until summer,affect summer precipitation and temperature conditions through soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks,and ultimately modulate changes in summer drought in the MHA. 展开更多
关键词 arctic sea ice summer drought in Asia Snow depth Soil moisture
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On the Association between Spring Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Chinese Summer Rainfall:A Further Study 被引量:41
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作者 武炳义 张人禾 Bin WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第4期666-678,共13页
In our previous study, a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968-2005 was identified. This linkage is demonstrated ... In our previous study, a statistical linkage between the spring Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the succeeding Chinese summer rainfall during the period 1968-2005 was identified. This linkage is demonstrated by the leading singular value decomposition (SVD) that accounts for 19% of the co-variance. Both spring SIC and Chinese summer rainfall exhibit a coherent interannual variability and two apparent interdecadal variations that occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1990s. The combined impacts of both spring Arctic SIC and Eurasian snow cover on the summer Eurasian wave train may explain their statistical linkage. In this study, we show that evolution of atmospheric circulation anomalies from spring to summer, to a great extent, may explain the spatial distribution of spring and summer Arctic SIC anomalies, and is dynamically consistent with Chinese summer rainfall anomalies in recent decades. The association between spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall on interannual time scales is more important relative to interdecadal time scales. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly may serve as the bridge linking the spring Arctic SIC and Chinese summer rainfall, and their coherent interdecadal variations may reflect the feedback of spring SIC variability on the atmosphere. The summer Arctic dipole anomaly shows a closer relationship with the Chinese summer rainfall relative to the Arctic Oscillation. 展开更多
关键词 spring arctic sea ice concentration summer rainfall arctic dipole anomaly interannual and interdecadal variations
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Analysis of Wave Distributions Using the WAVEWATCH-III Model in the Arctic Ocean 被引量:3
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作者 SHAO Weizeng YU Wupeng +3 位作者 JIANG Xingwei SHI Jian WEI Yongliang JI Qiyan 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第1期15-27,共13页
In this work,we examined long-term wave distributions using a third-generation numerical wave model called WAVE-WATCH-III(WW3)(version 6.07).We also evaluated the influence of sea ice on wave simulation by using eight... In this work,we examined long-term wave distributions using a third-generation numerical wave model called WAVE-WATCH-III(WW3)(version 6.07).We also evaluated the influence of sea ice on wave simulation by using eight parametric switches.To select a suitable ice-wave parameterization,we validated the simulations from the WW3 model in March,May,September,and December 2017 against the measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter at latitudes of up to 60°N.Generally,all parameterizations ex-hibited slight differences,i.e.,about 0.6 m root mean square error(RMSE)of significant wave height(SWH)in May and September and about 0.9 m RMSE for the freezing months of March and December.The comparison of the results with the SWH from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for December 2017 indicated that switch IC4_M1 performed most effec-tively(0.68 m RMSE)at high latitudes(60°-80°N).Given this finding,we analyzed the long-term wave distributions in 1999-2018 on the basis of switch IC4_M1.Although the seasonal variability of the simulated SWH was of two types,i.e.,‘U’and‘sin’modes,our results proved that fetch expansion prompted the wave growth.Moreover,the interannual variability of the specific regions in the‘U’mode was found to be correlated with the decade variability of wind in the Arctic Ocean. 展开更多
关键词 long-term wave distribution sea ice WAVEWATCH-III arctic Ocean
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2014 summer Arctic sea ice thickness and concentration from shipborne observations 被引量:4
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作者 Qingkai Wang Zhijun Li +2 位作者 Peng Lu Ruibo Lei Bin Cheng 《International Journal of Digital Earth》 SCIE EI 2019年第8期931-947,共17页
A series of shipborne sea ice observations were performed during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in the Pacific Arctic sector between 2 August 2014 and 1 September 2014.Undeformed sea ice thickness(SIT... A series of shipborne sea ice observations were performed during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in the Pacific Arctic sector between 2 August 2014 and 1 September 2014.Undeformed sea ice thickness(SIT)as well as area fractions of open water,melt pond,and sea ice(Aw,Ap,and Ai)were monitored using downward-oriented and oblique-oriented cameras.The results show that SIT varied between 20 and 220 cm throughout the whole cruise,with the average and standard deviation equaling 104.9 and 29.1 cm,respectively.Mean Aw and Ai were 0.52 and 0.44 in the marginal ice zone,respectively,while mean Aw decreased to 0.23 and mean Ai increased to 0.73 in the pack ice zone.Limited variation between 0 and 0.32 in Ap was seen throughout the whole cruise.Shipborne sea ice concentration was then rectified and mapped across a large transect to validate estimates derived from the satellite sensors Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder(SSMIS)(25 km)and AMSR2(25 km).Overestimations were 9.5%and 9.9%for SSMIS and AMSR2 compared with measurements,respectively.The mean areal broadband surface albedo based on shipborne survey increased from 0.07 to 0.66 along the transect between 72°N and 81°N. 展开更多
关键词 arctic sea ice shipborne photography remote sensing surface albedo summer melt
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基于船基图像的北极冰面融池形态研究
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作者 邵华伟 周嘉儒 +3 位作者 王庆凯 张航 卢鹏 李志军 《冰川冻土》 CSCD 2024年第2期502-512,共11页
基于中国第12次北极科学考察期间获取的船侧倾斜拍摄海冰图像,研究了北极冰面融池大小和形态参数的空间分布及统计特征。应用自动检测算法将图像划分为水、冰、融池三种表面类别,经倾斜校正后计算每种类别的面积分数及单个融池的大小和... 基于中国第12次北极科学考察期间获取的船侧倾斜拍摄海冰图像,研究了北极冰面融池大小和形态参数的空间分布及统计特征。应用自动检测算法将图像划分为水、冰、融池三种表面类别,经倾斜校正后计算每种类别的面积分数及单个融池的大小和形态。结果显示,融池的面积分数随纬度升高先增大后减小,较短的融化时间和较早的再冻结导致高纬度地区融池面积分数一直较低。融池的面积、周长和平均钳测直径随纬度升高具有相似变化规律,均为先增大后减小。不同大小融池面积的频率分布与幂律函数相吻合,对应指数均在1.4~1.8范围内,具有一定相似性。融池的分形维数随纬度升高分布较均匀,而周长与面积比值随纬度变化较大。不同纬度融池边缘凸度与圆形的对应值π相差较大,而各纬度融池圆度平均值为2.39±0.23;融池圆度和凸度与其面积成正比,周长与面积比值则与融池面积成反比,表明融池边缘随着融池面积增加而变得更长更曲折。冰面融池变化引起的平均海表反照率空间差异较大,随着纬度升高在0.24~0.67之间变化,变化率为0.10(°N)^(-1)。本文研究的融池大小和形态参数可为融池演变模拟及遥感反演算法改进提供重要观测依据和地面验证。 展开更多
关键词 融池 形态参数 船基图像 空间分布 北极海冰
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CMIP6计划中我国地球气候系统模式北极海冰空间分布的模拟评估 被引量:1
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作者 李佳琦 王晓春 赵立清 《海洋科学进展》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期254-268,共15页
世界气候研究计划(WCRP)正在组织实施第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)。本文选取了参加CMIP6的9个中国大陆地球气候系统模式的北极海冰输出结果与同时段海冰遥感观测数据进行比较,评估了各个模式1980年至2014年北极海冰密集度和其长... 世界气候研究计划(WCRP)正在组织实施第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)。本文选取了参加CMIP6的9个中国大陆地球气候系统模式的北极海冰输出结果与同时段海冰遥感观测数据进行比较,评估了各个模式1980年至2014年北极海冰密集度和其长期趋势的空间分布。研究表明,所有的模式都可以较好地模拟出3月北极海盆海冰的分布情况,误差主要分布在海冰边缘地区,其中鄂霍茨克海的中部以及巴伦支海地区误差最大,最高值可达90%。与3月相比,模式对9月海冰空间分布的模拟效果不佳,在北极海盆地区以及海冰边缘地区均存在15%以上的误差。在海冰密集度长期趋势空间分布方面,3月,9个模式总体高估了海冰下降区的海域面积,在鄂霍茨克海、巴伦支海以及格陵兰海北部海域为模式误差大值区(大于50%)。模式在模拟9月海冰下降趋势的区域及量级上较3月都有更大的偏差。另外,9个模式对海冰密集度多年平均季节变化的模拟能力与其对长期趋势的模拟能力有一定关联,对海冰密集度季节变化模拟准确的模式,其海冰长期趋势的模拟也较接近观测。海冰分量模式中参数化方案的改进可以明显提高模式的模拟能力。 展开更多
关键词 地球气候系统模式 CMIP6 北极海冰 空间分布
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1990s年代际转型前后南海季风系统的季节变化 被引量:8
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作者 黄菲 邢雯 +2 位作者 李元妮 张旭 董静舒 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第1期9-15,共7页
利用多变量经验正交分解(MV-EOF)等方法,研究了在季节变化尺度上南海季风系统的时空分布特征。结果表明:南海夏季风的爆发时间在1993—1994年前后存在显著的年代际转型,由爆发偏晚转变成爆发偏早。第一模态表现为冬夏反位相的年周期变化... 利用多变量经验正交分解(MV-EOF)等方法,研究了在季节变化尺度上南海季风系统的时空分布特征。结果表明:南海夏季风的爆发时间在1993—1994年前后存在显著的年代际转型,由爆发偏晚转变成爆发偏早。第一模态表现为冬夏反位相的年周期变化,但爆发早年夏季风持续时间略长于爆发晚年,空间上都反映了南海中央海盆区的夏季强降水和850 hPa上南海北部的气旋性环流异常,但夏季风爆发早年中国华南沿海降水加强而南海南部降水偏少。相应的大范围环流场上主要反映了南海夏季风爆发后进入盛夏时节亚太地区大范围的环流特征,南海夏季风爆发偏早年索马里越赤道气流偏强,东亚季风槽位置偏北,爆发偏晚年则相反。第二模态反映了南海季风系统春秋反位相的季节变化,且秋季的振幅更强,空间降水场上对应着秋季华南沿海和南海北部与南海中南部北旱南涝的跷跷板式分布,850 hPa风场上则主要表现为异常的东北季风,该模态时空特征表明南海夏季风爆发偏早年的秋季,冬季风建立也偏早,越南及周边地区的降水偏多。相应的大范围环流场上则主要反映了冬季风的环流特征,在南海夏季风爆发偏早年的秋季,菲律宾以东的热带对流减弱,PJ波列增强,爆发晚年则相反。 展开更多
关键词 南海夏季风爆发 1990s年代际转型 年循环 时空分布
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1990s年代际转型前后南海季风系统的气候季节内振荡(CISO)特征 被引量:1
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作者 邢雯 黄菲 +1 位作者 王宏 黄少妮 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第1期31-40,共10页
利用多变量经验正交分解(MV-EOF)等方法,研究了在季节内振荡尺度上南海季风系统的时空分布特征。结果表明:南海夏季风的爆发时间在1993/1994年前后存在显著的年代际转型,由爆发偏晚转变成爆发偏早。第一模态反映了南海夏季风爆发时季风... 利用多变量经验正交分解(MV-EOF)等方法,研究了在季节内振荡尺度上南海季风系统的时空分布特征。结果表明:南海夏季风的爆发时间在1993/1994年前后存在显著的年代际转型,由爆发偏晚转变成爆发偏早。第一模态反映了南海夏季风爆发时季风系统的时空特征,转型前后特征类似,降水场自赤道向北依次呈现干-湿-干交替分布的特征,南海中心为异常气旋。相应的大范围环流场主要反映了转型前的偏晚年,南海夏季风槽位置偏南,转型后的偏早年,南海夏季风槽位置偏北。第二模态体现了南海季风系统夏季的时空特征,转型前后共同特征表现为南海地区夏季北湿南干的南北偶极子降水分布及南海中心区的异常西风。相应的大范围环流场主要反映了南海季风活动与东亚季风呈现反位相的特点,且对流信号向北传播。转型前的偏晚年,季风活动受准双周振荡控制,对流信号由西北方向传入南海;转型后的偏早年,季风活动以30~60天振荡为主,对流信号由东南方向传播至南海。 展开更多
关键词 南海夏季风爆发 1990s年代际转型 气候季节内振荡(CISO) 时空分布
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2006—2016年河南省气溶胶光学厚度时空分布 被引量:8
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作者 田宏伟 《干旱气象》 2018年第1期104-109,共6页
选择近11 a(2006—2016年)Aqua MODIS 3 km气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品进行数据提取、空间校正、拼接裁剪和重采样等预处理,得到河南区域资料,在此基础上研究河南省气溶胶光学厚度时空分布特征。结果表明:近11 a河南省平均AOD值在0.586~0.... 选择近11 a(2006—2016年)Aqua MODIS 3 km气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品进行数据提取、空间校正、拼接裁剪和重采样等预处理,得到河南区域资料,在此基础上研究河南省气溶胶光学厚度时空分布特征。结果表明:近11 a河南省平均AOD值在0.586~0.619之间波动,2007年AOD值最高,2007年之后呈波动下降趋势,年均下降0.001 5;AOD季节平均值夏季最大、春季次之、冬季最小;四个季节AOD近11 a均呈波动下降趋势,其中夏季年际变化幅度最大、春秋次之,冬季年际波动幅度较小;南海夏季季风指数对夏、秋两季的AOD波动有明显影响,其中2006—2011年,季风指数和AOD变化趋势相反,而2011—2016年两者变化趋势一致;AOD月均值呈中间高、两边低的周期性变化;河南省AOD年均值空间分布呈北高南低、东高西低的分布形态,高值区主要位于黄河沿岸的三角形区域内,春季、夏季和秋季AOD分布形态与年均值类似,而冬季高值区主要分布在东南部;近11 a全省AOD年均值变化在北部、东部、东南部地区以增加为主,其余地区以减小为主;2011—2016年变化以减小为主,仅北部新乡、安阳、濮阳等地增加。 展开更多
关键词 气溶胶光学厚度 时空分布 南海夏季季风指数
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不同敏感性参数下船舶-碎冰碰撞的船体结构响应 被引量:2
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作者 张健 李锐 +1 位作者 王蓓怡 李兰岚 《造船技术》 2021年第6期1-5,16,共6页
基于我国第七次北极科学考察获得的夏季北极海冰空间分布情况,模拟真实碎冰分布,采用LS-DYNA软件中的流固耦合方法,研究在船舶航速、碎冰尺度、碎冰厚度及碎冰密集度等因素影响下船舶-碎冰碰撞的船体结构响应。结合试验数据得到船体结... 基于我国第七次北极科学考察获得的夏季北极海冰空间分布情况,模拟真实碎冰分布,采用LS-DYNA软件中的流固耦合方法,研究在船舶航速、碎冰尺度、碎冰厚度及碎冰密集度等因素影响下船舶-碎冰碰撞的船体结构响应。结合试验数据得到船体结构的应力、吸能和碰撞力。结果表明:船舶-碎冰的主要碰撞区域为艏部及舷侧的水线附近;在船舶航行于碎冰域时,船体结构的应力、吸能和碰撞力的峰值随碎冰域的船舶航速、碎冰尺度、碎冰厚度及碎冰密集度的增加而增加,但分布情况不同。研究结果为船舶在极地冰区航行提供一定的安全性参考。 展开更多
关键词 船舶 夏季北极海冰空间分布 碎冰 船舶-碎冰碰撞 结构响应 流固耦合
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近30年北极海冰运动特征分析 被引量:7
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作者 李瑜洁 高晓清 +2 位作者 张录军 郭维栋 杨丽薇 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期114-123,共10页
海冰的分布和运动情况包含了大量的海气耦合的信息。本文采用国际北极海冰浮标计划数据(IABP)获得的1979-2011年74°N-90°N范围内32个站点的海冰流速资料和Myocean再分析资料(ORAP5. 0系列) 1979-2011年海冰流速部分,综合分析... 海冰的分布和运动情况包含了大量的海气耦合的信息。本文采用国际北极海冰浮标计划数据(IABP)获得的1979-2011年74°N-90°N范围内32个站点的海冰流速资料和Myocean再分析资料(ORAP5. 0系列) 1979-2011年海冰流速部分,综合分析了北极海冰时空分布特征及海冰流速大小和方向的统计特征。结果表明:从实测数据与再分析数据比较来看,1999年再分析资料和实测资料有较大偏差,1999年之后再分析资料刻画的趋势和浮标数据趋势近似,因为1999年ORAP5. 0采用了新的物理模型,使所得再分析数据更加精确。从海冰流速季节分布来看,海冰流速在夏季最大,其次是秋季。从海冰流速年际变化来看,在1990年之前,海冰流速逐年变化趋势明显,海冰流速变率更大,而1990年之后海冰流速逐年变化趋势逐渐平缓。从海冰流速大小以及运动方向来看,弗拉姆海峡处海冰流速大于8 cm·s^(-1)的情况出现次数最多。自20世纪90年代以来,海冰流速变化逐渐趋向于一个相对稳定的状态。其原因可能是自20世纪90年代以来,全球变暖"停滞"(Hiatus)现象,比如欧亚大陆中高纬度地区以及北美大西洋地区的温度不仅出现了"增温停滞现象",甚至出现明显的降温现象。MyOcean数据产品项目众多(130种),采用不同的海洋模型得到不同类型的再分析数据,如GLORYS2V3、CGLORS、UR025. 4、ORAP5. 0、M JM 105B等,这些数据涵盖面广,且在许多方面模拟精确度都很高(如ORAP5. 0得到的海冰密集度与实测数据基本一致),所以MyOcean数据产品有效提高了海洋监测和预报的能力。本研究有助于对北极海洋运动、气候变化及海洋生态的认识,对北极渔业和能源开发及航运有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 北极 海冰 速度 时空分布 气候变化
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北极航道贸易潜力的时空分布分析 被引量:1
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作者 刘权 胡麦秀 《海洋经济》 2023年第1期28-40,共13页
考虑海冰年际变化对北极航道贸易潜力的影响,用航运时间替代航运距离对贸易引力模型进行拓展,采用“多国模型”量化评估了16个北极航道贸易利益相关国贸易潜力的时空分布趋势。结果表明:(1)航行时间每缩短1%,各国之间进出口贸易总额将提... 考虑海冰年际变化对北极航道贸易潜力的影响,用航运时间替代航运距离对贸易引力模型进行拓展,采用“多国模型”量化评估了16个北极航道贸易利益相关国贸易潜力的时空分布趋势。结果表明:(1)航行时间每缩短1%,各国之间进出口贸易总额将提升0.512%,冰况越恶劣,贸易潜力提升越低;(2)时间分布趋势上,1991-2019年各国平均贸易潜力因冰情波动呈现先小幅上升,后小幅下降,再不断上升的趋势,并预计到2050年北极航道完全开通时达到最大;(3)空间分布上,东亚近北极国与西欧近北极国、北极航道沿线国的双边贸易潜力提升较大,最高可提升27.06%,传统航道沿线国贸易潜力提升不明显。 展开更多
关键词 北极航道 海冰 时空分布 贸易潜力 引力模型
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