Study on the Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Henan Province

This study utilized census data from Henan Province for the years 2000,2010,and 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of population aging,defined by the proportion of the population aged 65 and above.Employing spatial analysis techniques such as spatial autocorrelation and the standard deviation ellipse,the research mapped out the progression and distribution of aging demographics.Furthermore,the study delved into the influencing factors of aging using an optimal parameters-based geographical detector.Results indicate a deepening degree of population aging in Henan Province,transitioning from an adult type to an old type structure.There is a marked positive spatial correlation among counties,with high-value aging areas initially decreasing,then increasing,and notably spreading from the central to the central and southern regions of the province.The center of gravity for population aging,specifically around Changge City and Xuchang City,exhibits a trajectory moving southeast before shifting northwest.Factor detection reveals that in 2000,2010,and 2020,the elderly dependency ratio predominantly influences the aging trend,with explanatory powers of 88.4%,87.9%,and 90.9%,respectively.Interaction analysis indicates that the interaction between the old-child ratio and the elderly dependency ratio has a strong explanatory power for the aging patterns in Henan Province,reaching 97.3%,97.0%,and 97.4%,respectively.

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin,China

The Yellow River Basin of China is a key region that contains myriad interactions between human activities and natural environment.Industrialization and urbanization promote social-economic development,but they also have generated a series of environmental and ecological issues in this basin.Previous researches have evaluated urban resilience at the national,regional,urban agglomeration,city,and prefecture levels,but not at the watershed level.To address this research gap and elevate the Yellow River Basin’s urban resilience level,we constructed an urban resilience evaluation index system from five dimensions:industrial resilience,social resilience,environmental resilience,technological resilience,and organizational resilience.The entropy weight method was used to comprehensively evaluate urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin.The exploratory spatial data analysis method was employed to study the spatiotemporal differences in urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin in 2010,2015,and 2020.Furthermore,the grey correlation analysis method was utilized to explore the influencing factors of these differences.The results of this study are as follows:(1)the overall level of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin was relatively low but showed an increasing trend during 2010–2015,and significant spatial distribution differences were observed,with a higher resilience level in the eastern region and a low-medium resilience level in the western region;(2)the differences in urban resilience were noticeable,with industrial resilience and social resilience being relatively highly developed,whereas organizational resilience and environmental resilience were relatively weak;and(3)the correlation ranking of resilience influencing factors was as follows:science and technology level>administrative power>openness>market forces.This research can provide a basis for improving the resilience level of cities in the Yellow River Basin and contribute to the high-quality development of the region.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Isohyets in Ningxia

The multi-scale spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and isohyets in Ningxia were studied using daily,monthly,and annual precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia over the last 60 years.The results revealed that the intensity of rainstorms in Ningxia had decreased slightly over the previous 60 years,with the intensity of rainstorms in southern and central Ningxia being higher than in northern areas.Ningxia's annual and seasonal precipitation varied regionally,declining from the southeast to the northwest.Annual,spring and autumn precipitation exhibited a significantly declining trend from 1960 to the early 21^(st)century;summer precipitation displayed a slightly decreasing trend;and winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend.Nevertheless,there was a noticeable increase in annual and seasonal precipitation after 2005.From the 1960s to the 2000s,the 200 mm isohyet moved slowly southward,while the 400 mm isohyet jumped southward twice in the 1970s and 2000s before jumping considerably northward in the 2010s to reach their northernmost region.

Spatial evolution and spatial production of traditional villages from "backward poverty villages" to "ecologically well-off villages": Experiences from the hinterland of national nature reserves in China

With the rapid urbanization process,the space of traditional villages in China is undergoing significant changes.Studying the spatial evolution of traditional villages is significant in promoting rural spatial transformation and realizing rural revitalization and sustainable rural development.Based on the traceability analysis of spatial production theory,this paper constructed an analytical framework for the spatial production evolution of traditional villages,analyzed the spatial evolution process and characteristics of traditional villages by using buffer analysis,spatial syntax,and other research methods,and revealed the characteristics of the spatial production evolution of traditional villages and the driving mechanism.The results show that:(1)The village spatial formation and development follow the village life cycle theory and usually develop from embryonic villages to diversified and integrated villages;(2)The evolution of village spatial production is characterized by the diversity of material space,the sublimation of daily life space,and the integration of social system space and generalization of emotional space;(3)The evolution of village spatial production from backward and poor village to ecologically well-off village is influenced by a combination of factors;(4)The village has formed a spatial structure of"people-land-scape-culture-industry",realized comprehensive reconstruction and spatial reproduction.The study results reflect the spatial evolution characteristics of traditional villages in mountainous areas in a more comprehensive way,which helps to promote the protection and development of traditional villages in mountainous areas and,to a certain extent,provides a reference for the development of rural revitalization.

Layer chicken microbiota:a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics across all major gut sections

Background The gut microbiota influences chicken health,welfare,and productivity.A diverse and balanced microbiota has been associated with improved growth,efficient feed utilisation,a well-developed immune system,disease resistance,and stress tolerance in chickens.Previous studies on chicken gut microbiota have predominantly focused on broiler chickens and have usually been limited to one or two sections of the digestive system,under con-trolled research environments,and often sampled at a single time point.To extend these studies,this investigation examined the microbiota of commercially raised layer chickens across all major gut sections of the digestive system and with regular sampling from rearing to the end of production at 80 weeks.The aim was to build a detailed picture of microbiota development across the entire digestive system of layer chickens and study spatial and temporal dynamics.Results The taxonomic composition of gut microbiota differed significantly between birds in the rearing and pro-duction stages,indicating a shift after laying onset.Similar microbiota compositions were observed between proven-triculus and gizzard,as well as between jejunum and ileum,likely due to their anatomical proximity.Lactobacil-lus dominated the upper gut in pullets and the lower gut in older birds.The oesophagus had a high proportion of Proteobacteria,including opportunistic pathogens such as Gallibacterium.Relative abundance of Gallibacterium increased after peak production in multiple gut sections.Aeriscardovia was enriched in the late-lay phase compared to younger birds in multiple gut sections.Age influenced microbial richness and diversity in different organs.The upper gut showed decreased diversity over time,possibly influenced by dietary changes,while the lower gut,specifi-cally cecum and colon,displayed increased richness as birds matured.However,age-related changes were inconsist-ent across all organs,suggesting the influence of organ-specific factors in microbiota maturation.Conclusion Addressing a gap in previous research,this study explored the microbiota across all major gut sections and tracked their dynamics from rearing to the end of the production cycle in commercially raised layer chickens.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of microbiota structure and development which help to develop targeted strategies to optimise gut health and overall productivity in poultry production.

Spatial compartmentalization and temporal stability of associated microbiota in Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas

The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas,one of the most exploited molluscs in the world,has suffered from massive mortality in recent decades,and the occurrence mechanisms have not been well characterized.In this study,to reveal the relationship of associated microbiota to the fitness of oysters,temporal dynamics of microbiota in the gill,hemolymph,and hepatopancreas of C.gigas during April 2018-January 2019 were investigated by 16 S rRNA gene sequencing.The microbiota in C.gigas exhibited tissue heterogeneity,of which Spirochaetaceae was dominant in the gill and hemolymph while Mycoplasmataceae enriched in the hepatopancreas.Co-occurrence network demonstrated that the gill microbiota exhibited higher inter-taxon connectivity while the hemolymph microbiota had more modules.The richness(Chao 1 index)and diversity(Shannon index)of microbial community in each tissue showed no significant seasonal variations,except for the hepatopancreas having a higher richness in the autumn.Similarly,beta diversity analysis indicated a relatively stable microbiota in each tissue during the sampling period,showing relative abundance of the dominant taxa exhibiting temporal dynamics.Results indicate that the microbial community in C.gigas showed a tissue-specific stability with temporal dynamics in the composition,which might be essential for the tissue functioning and environmental adaption in oysters.This work provides a baseline microbiota in C.gigas and is helpful for the understanding of host-microbiota interaction in oysters.

Spatial and temporal variation of water clarity in typical reservoirs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region observed by GF 1-WFV satellite data

Rapidly monitoring regional water quality and the changing trend is of great practical and scientific significance,especially for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China where water resources are relatively scarce and inland water bodies are generally small.The remote sensing data of the GF 1 satellite launched in 2013 have characteristics of high spatial and temporal resolution,which can be used for the dynamic monitoring of the water environment in small lakes and reservoirs.However,the water quality remote sensing monitoring model based on the GF 1 satellite data for lakes and reservoirs in BTH is still lacking because of the considerable differences in the optical characteristics of the lakes and reservoirs.In this paper,the typical reservoirs in BTH-Guanting Reservoir,Yuqiao Reservoir,Panjiakou Reservoir,and Daheiting Reservoir are taken as the study areas.In the atmospheric correction of GF 1-WFV,the relative radiation normalized atmospheric correction was adopted after comparing it with other methods,such as 6 S and FLAASH.In the water clarity retrieval,a water color hue angle based model was proposed and outperformed other available published models,with the R 2 of 0.74 and MRE of 31.7%.The clarity products of the four typical reservoirs in the BTH region in 2013-2019 were produced using the GF 1-WFV data.Based on the products,temporal and spatial changes in clarity were analyzed,and the main influencing factors for each water body were discussed.It was found that the clarity of Guanting,Daheiting,and Panjiakou reservoirs showed an upward trend during this period,while that of Yuqiao Reservoir showed a downward trend.In the influencing factors,the water level of the water bodies can be an important factor related to the water clarity changes in this region.

Temporal and spatial differences in human activities performed in Urban Green Spaces of Vilnius(Lithuania)

Urban green spaces(UGS)are relevant to city well-being,as recognized by the United Nations’Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).However,few studies have studied the temporal use of UGS.This work assessed the seasonal,weekly,and daily use of three urban green spaces(Vingis Park,Bernardino Garden,and Jomantas Park)in Vilnius(Lithuania).The study is based on an on-site observation-based survey,which recorded users’characteristics,activities,and weather conditions during summer and winter.The results showed that UGS’s seasonal,weekly,and daily use differed according to park and users’characteristics.Parks with a higher diversity of facilities had a high seasonal difference in the number of observed activities.User numbers were higher in the summer for activities with children,social activities,sports,and water activities than in the winter.Jomantas Park had the lowest variability in user characteristics.Weather variables were linked to changes in users’activities.Higher precipitation and lower temperature were associated with reducing the number of users and the diversity of registered activities.Most of the stationary activities were observed during summer.The diversity of the observed activities was associated with the available facilities rather than the park size.The distribution of stationary activities was spatially correlated with facility/equipment(benches,playgrounds,sports,and fitness equipment)and proximity to water features.The results of this study are relevant for UGS design,planning,and management.

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus (VDPV) in Democratic Republic of Congo from 2018 to 2023

Background: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been facing outbreaks of VDPV since 2017. These wild poliovirus variants are responsible for poliomyelitis, which is in the process of eradication.. In the following lines, we try to show the evolution of VDPV cases across the country in order to understand their chronological dynamics and seasonal influence. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of of VDPV notified in the DRC from 2018 to 2023. Maps of the spatial dynamics of VDPV cases were produced from attack rates with QGIS® (3.22.8). As for temporal dynamics, time series were decomposed and presented in the form of graphs showing the chronological evolution of VDPV cases and their seasonal trend, using R.4.0 software package. Results: A total of 1196 Cases of VDPV types 1, 2 and 3 were recorded in the biological confirmation databases of the INRB and the Expanded Program of Immunization during the study period across25 provinces. The eastern part of the country reporting the most cases. The general trend is upwards, with a peak in 2022 of 527 cases, whereas in 2021 there was a notable drop of 31 cases. Analysis of the temporal breakdown suggests a seasonal pattern, with peaks between the months of September and December, considered being rainy periods in some provinces. Conclusion: During the 6 years of our study (2018 - 2023) almost all the Health Zones were hit by VDPV epidemics. The eastern part was the most impacted. The seasonal component is well marked suggesting a rise in detection in the rainy season and during pivotal periods of climate change.

Spatial Morphology Evolution Characteristics Analysis of the Resident Population Distribution in Henan, China

The population spatial distribution pattern and its evolving pattern play an important role in regional allocation of social resources and production factors, formulation of regional development plans, construction of a better life society, and promotion of regional economic development. Based on the resident population statistics data of Henan province from 2006 to 2021, with county as the basic study unit, the paper studies the spatial morphology characteristics and its evolution patterns of resident population distribution, by using spatial analysis methods such as population distribution center, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial auto correlation analysis. The results show that: the resident population spatial distribution shows unbalanced state, the population agglomeration areas mainly distribute in the northeast part and north part, where the resident population growth rate is significantly higher than other regions, over time, this trend is gradually becoming significant. The resident population distribution has a trend of centripetal concentration, with the degree and trend of centripetal gradually strengthening. The resident population distribution has obvious directional characteristics, but the significance is not high, the weighted resident population average center is approximately located at (4.13740˚N, 113.8935˚E), and the azimuth of the distribution axis is approximately 11.19˚. The population distribution has obvious agglomeration characteristics, with the built-up areas of Zhengzhou and Luoyang as their centers, where have a significant siphon effect on the surrounding population. The southern and southwestern regions in the province form a relatively stable belt area of Low-Low agglomeration areas.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Snowstorm in Ulanqab City in Recent 30 Years

Based on the data of daily snowfall and weather phenomena of 11 national meteorological stations in Ulanqab City from 1991 to 2020,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of snowstorm were analyzed.The results show that the snowstorm in Ulanqab had obvious seasonal distribution characteristics,mainly happening in spring(March-May)and autumn(September-November).It also had obvious regional distribution in space,and the snowstorm center appeared in Chahar Right Wing Middle Banner and Jining District,namely the east side of the Yinshan Mountain.In the past 30 years,the amount of snowstorm in the whole year in Ulanqab showed a certain fluctuation trend,and the number of snowstorm days had shown an obvious upward trend since 2011.

Dynamic analysis of agricultural green development efficiency in China: Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors

Green development of agriculture is important for achieving coordinated and high-quality regional development for China. Using provincial data from 1990 to 2020, this work explored the dynamics of agricultural green development efficiency of 31 provinces in China, its spatiotemporal characteristics, and its driving factors using a super-efficiency slacks-based measure(Super-SBM), the Malmquist productivity index(MPI), spatial autocorrelation, and a geographic detector. Results showed that the overall agricultural green development efficiency showed a U-shaped trend, suggesting a low level of efficiency. Although a gradient difference was visible among eastern, central, and western regions, the efficiency gap narrowed each year. Technological progress and efficiency both promoted agricultural green development efficiency, especially technological progress. Agricultural green development efficiency had significant spatial aggregation characteristics, but Moran’s Ⅰ result showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2020, indicating a risk of spatial dispersion in the later stage. The provinces with high agricultural green development efficiency were mainly concentrated in the eastern region, while those with low efficiency were concentrated in the central and western regions. Agricultural green development efficiency was influenced by various factors, which showed differences according to time and region. The impact of the labor force’s education level and technological progress increased during the study period, and significantly facilitated agricultural green development efficiency in the eastern region, while the central and western regions were still affected by the scale level and environmental regulation, reflecting the advantages of the eastern region in terms of economy and technology. In the future, strengthening agricultural scientific and technological innovation and deepening interprovincial cooperation can help further improve the level of green agricultural development. In addition, local governments should formulate more precise local agricultural support policies based on macro-level policies and local conditions.

Spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service value and topographic gradient effect in the Da-Xiao Liangshan Mountains in Sichuan Province,China

The Da-Xiao Liangshan mountains are critical ecological function areas and essential ecological barriers in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in China.This study selected a total of six periods of land use land cover(LULC)data from 1995 to 2020,to estimate the ecosystem service value(ESV)and analyzed its spatiotemporal evolution and topographic gradient divergence.The results showed that:(1)The ESV increased by 1.1 billion yuan,with an increase rate of 1.47%from 1995 to 2020.Two time periods,2005–2010 and 2015–2020,showed more significant increases than other periods.(2)The elevation and slope of mountainous areas determine the type of land use and further influence the spatial pattern of ESV.(3)Although woodland and grassland are the main land use types of the study area(more than 90%),the hydrological regulation function of the water area partially compensated for the impact of the encroachment of the built-up area on the ESV of grassland.(4)The spatial distribution of ESVs showed an inverted V-shaped characteristic as the topographic gradient increased,with the dominant position being the 5th topographic gradient zone.Finally,this study provided relevant recommendations for ecosystem protection and optimization.The findings of this study clarified the influence of topographical factors on the spatial differentiation of ESV and provided novel insights into ecosystem protection.

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics Analysis of Jiangsu Tourism Economy

[Objective] The paper aimed to reflect the spatial pattern and temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, the differences between inter-regional tourism economy was measured from the quality aspect, which provided a reference for the local governments in the future tourism development. [Method] Using the location entropy methods, three time periods side of tourism-related date of 2000, 2005, 2007 were selected, from the angle of the spatial pattern and the evolution of the differences within the different scales, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the economic development level of Jiangsu were analysed. [Result] The results showed that from the aspect of spatial evolution pattern, as time goes on, the economic development of Jiangsu tourism has experienced morphological evolution of concentration- dispersion decrease-stability; when it comes to the development of the tourism economy, in recent years, the overall gap between the tourism economy in Jiangsu did not widen, the gap mainly led by the region one after another. According to their volatility, it will be divided into four categories: A Stable type (Wuxi, Xuzhou, Lianyungang and Taizhou), B Increasing type (Huai’an), C Fluctuations type (Nanjing, Changzhou, Suzhou and Yangzhou) and D Depression type (Nantong, Yancheng, Zhenjiang and Suqian). [Conclusion] Location entropy was quoted into tourism economic analysis, the method was simple and easy to understand, the result was accurate and convincing, which provided a reference for travel economic development and investment decision-making of Jiangsu.

Rationale of a Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study on Temporal Evolution of Frequency, Risk Factors and Complications of Preeclampsia in the University Clinics of Kinshasa, DR Congo

Background: Knowledge of temporal evolution of preeclampsia (PE) in its various aspects is essential in strategies to reduce maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia is a public health problem due to maternal mortality associated with it worldwide (5.6%). Improving quality of its management is a major challenge in low-income countries where, despite progress made in this field, PE remains a major factor in maternal morbidity and mortality. Objective: To evaluate temporal evolution of frequency, risk factors and complications of PE at the University clinics of Kinshasa (UCK). Methods: Descriptive and cross-sectional study concerning minimum simple size of 119 pregnant women who consulted for antenatal care at the University clinics of Kinshasa from January 2012 to December 2022. Results will be reported as percentage proportion, mean and standard deviation. Comparison of proportion and means between groups will be made using Student’s t-test and Pearson’s chi-square test, respectively. The test will be statistically significant for a p value ≤ less than 0.05. Data will be collected and analysed anonymously and confidentially. Conclusion: This study will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of different prevention and treatment modalities used over time in management of preeclampsia in our setting.

Study of spatial and temporal evolution of Ar and F atoms in SF6/Ar microsecond pulsed discharge by optical emission spectroscopy

The study of sulfur hexafluoride(SF6) discharge is vital for its application in gas-insulated equipment. Direct current partial discharge(PD) may cause SF6 decomposition, and the decomposed products of SF6, such as F atoms, play a dominant role in the breakdown of insulation systems. In this study, the PD caused by metal protrusion defects is simulated by a needle-plate electrode using pulsed high voltage in SF6/Ar mixtures. The spatial and temporal characteristics of SF6/Ar plasma are analyzed by measuring the emission spectra of F and Ar atoms, which are important for understanding the characteristics of PD. The spatial resolved results show that both F and Ar atom spectral intensities increase first from the plate anode to the needle and then decrease under the conditions of a background pressure of400 Pa, peak voltage of-1000 V, frequency of 2 kHz, pulse width of 60 μs, and electrode gap of 5-9 mm. However, the distribution characteristics of F and Ar are significantly different. The temporal distribution results show that the spectral intensity of Ar decreasesfirst and then increases slowly, while the spectral intensity of F increases slowly for the duration of the pulsed discharge at the electrode gap of 5 mm and the pulse width of40-80 μs.

Spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation evapotranspiration in Hebei Province,China

Evapotranspiration （ET） is the sum of soil or water body evaporation and plant transpiration from the earth surface and ocean to the atmosphere, and thus plays a significant role in regulating carbon and water resource cycles. The time-series data set from the remote sensing MOLDS product （MOD16） was used to study the spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation evapotranspiration in salinized areas during 2000-2014 by analyzing the variability, spatial patterns and Mann-Kendall （MK） nonparametric trends for the time series. The results indicate that inter-annual and intra-annual variations of ET across various vegetated areas show seasonal changes, with the abnormal months identified. The Cultivated land displays a greater degree of spatial heterogeneity and the spatial pattern of ET in the area covered by broadleaved deciduous forests corresponds to a higher ET rate and increased water consumption. Awidespread decline of ET is observed only in cultivated areas. However, agricultural cultivation doesn＇t worsen water shortage and soil salinization problems in the region, and water shortage problems are worsening for other vegetated areas. This research provides a basis of reference for the reasonable allocation of water resources and restructuring of vegetation patterns in salinized areas.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Laser-Induced Plasma from a Slag Sample

Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy （LIBS） has been demonstrated to be an effective method for slag analysis. In order to better clarify the nature of the plasma generated from a slag sample, an Nd：YAG pulse laser at 1064 nm wavelength was used to ablate the slag sample in air. The temporal and spatial evolutions of plasma parameters, including emission intensity, electronic density and plasma temperature, have been studied. It is shown that the electron density and plasma temperature drop off rapidly with the delay time as a result of plasma expansion and cooling. It has been found that the electron density of the whole plasma is close to that of the center regions in the plasma. The results of the spatial distributions on the two-dimensional plane have shown that there is a big region with lower electron density values caused by the recombination process in the center of the plasma. The maximum of the plasma temperature takes place at the regions close to the target, and the border of the plasma front-head has higher plasma temperatures than that of the center part.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of PM2.5 in China from 1998 to 2016

The rapid development of China’s economy and urbanization has given rise to noticeable environmental problems,among which the change of air quality has received extensive attention.The panel data of PM2.5(particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5μm or less)in 343 prefecture-level cities in China from 1998 to 2016 were statistically analyzed to reveal the characteristics of the temporal evolution and spatial variation of China’s air quality in the past two decades.The results show that:1)the overall deterioration trend of air quality is obvious throughout the country.The variation trend of PM2.5 was divided into three phases:rapid-growth phase(1998–2007),lag phase(2006–2011)and mildly-incremental phase(2012–2016),with their average growth rates of 7.19%,-3.59%and 0.52%,respectively.2)The spatial difference of PM2.5 values in China increased significantly with time.Since 2003,the high-value area in the east has expanded rapidly,and polarization became much more pronounced.The change rate of PM2.5 is high in the east and west and low in the middle.The change rates of most areas in the west exceed more than 80%,and in the east lie somewhere between 40%and 60%.In the midlands,the change rate is not large and some regions even show a negative growth.3)The change rate of PM2.5 is also high in areas with higher values.However,in regions where the change rate of PM2.5 is high,the value of PM2.5 is not always high.The high change rate is mainly attributable to the low base value of PM2.5 and the cities concerned belong to sensitive areas.4)According to the PM2.5 warning index,the number of strong,medium,weak and non-warning areas in China is 45,85,159 and 54,respectively.

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Decoupling Analysis of Influencing Factors of China’s Aviation Carbon Emissions

The aviation industry has become one of the top ten greenhouse gas emission industries in the world. China’s aviation carbon emissions continue to increase, but the analysis of its influencing factors at the provincial level is still incomplete. This paper firstly uses Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model(STIRPAT) model to analyze the time series evolution of China’s aviation carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019. Secondly, it uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LDMI) model to analyze the influencing characteristics and degree of four factors on China’s aviation carbon emissions, which are air transportation revenue, aviation route structure, air transportation intensity and aviation energy intensity. Thirdly, it determines the various factors’ influencing direction and evolution trend of 31 provinces’ aviation carbon emissions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan of China due to incomplete data). Finally, it derives the decoupling effort model and analyzes the decoupling relationship and decoupling effort degree between air carbon emissions and air transportation revenue in different provinces. The study found that from 2000 to2019, China’s total aviation carbon emissions continued to grow, while the growth rate of aviation carbon emissions showed a fluctuating downward trend. Air transportation revenue and aviation route structure promote the growth of total aviation carbon emissions, and air transportation intensity and aviation energy intensity have a restraining effect on the growth of total aviation carbon emissions. The scope of negative driving effect of air transportation revenue and air transportation intensity on total aviation carbon emissions in various provinces has increased. While the scope of positive driving influence of aviation route structure on total aviation carbon emissions of various provinces has increased, aviation energy intensity mainly has negative driving influence on total aviation carbon emissions of each province. Overall, the emission reduction trend in the areas to the west and north of the Qinling-Huaihe River Line is obvious. The decoupling mode between air carbon emissions and air transportation revenue in 31 provinces is mainly expansion negative decoupling.The air transportation intensity effect shows strong decoupling efforts in most provinces, the decoupling effort of aviation route structure effect and aviation energy intensity effect is not prominent.