Construction of Dynamic Evaluation Model for Economic Benefits under Development of Low-Carbon New Energy

Because the static evaluation is unable to reflect the dynamic features of economic benefits and the contribution of sustainable development of low-carbon new energy to economic benefits is huge,this article puts forward the dynamic evaluation model of economic benefits under the development of low-carbon new energy.Total energy,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,GDP,total population and energy supply structure were taken as independent variables,and the carbon intensity was taken as the dependent variable.Through t-test and decision coefficient,total energy,energy consumption structure,GDP and total population were determined as the main factors of influencing low-carbon economy.Based on these four main factors,the dynamic evaluation index system of economic benefits was constructed.Experimental results show that the proposed model can comprehensively reflect the economic benefit level and the contribution of low-carbon new energy.Therefore,this method has high evaluation accuracy,which can provide scientific reference for the economic benefit management of relevant management departments.

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL OF ECOLOGICAL DEMONSTRATION AREA

Ecological demonstration area (EDA) is an authorized nomination, which should be assessed from several aspects, including ecological, social, environmental, economic ones and so on. It is difficult to advance an exact developing level index of EDA due to its indicator system’s complexity and disequilibrium. In this paper, a framework of indicators was set to evaluate, monitor and examine the comprehensive level of ecological demonstration area (EDA). Fuzzy logic method was used to develop the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM), which could quantitatively reveal the developing degree of EDA. Huiji District of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, one of the 9th group of national EDAs, was taken as a study case. The framework of FCEM for the integrated system included six subsystems, which were social, economic, ecological, rural, urban and accessorial description ones. The research would be valuable in the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of EDA and would work as a guide in the construction practices of Huiji ecological demonstration area.

A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications.In this work,a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean,minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling.These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland.The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform(CDF-t).The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season.The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively,by inspection of quantile-quantile plots,and quantitatively,through the Cramer-von Mises,mean absolute error,and root-mean-square error diagnostics.The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling(for all seasons).The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive,and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts(at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).

Dynamic Pricing Model of E-Commerce Platforms Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

With the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology,its application field has gradually expanded.To further apply the deep reinforcement learning technology to the field of dynamic pricing,we build an intelligent dynamic pricing system,introduce the reinforcement learning technology related to dynamic pricing,and introduce existing research on the number of suppliers(single supplier and multiple suppliers),environmental models,and selection algorithms.A two-period dynamic pricing game model is designed to assess the optimal pricing strategy for e-commerce platforms under two market conditions and two consumer participation conditions.The first step is to analyze the pricing strategies of e-commerce platforms in mature markets,analyze the optimal pricing and profits of various enterprises under different strategy combinations,compare different market equilibriums and solve the Nash equilibrium.Then,assuming that all consumers are naive in the market,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is analyzed.By comparing and analyzing the optimal pricing and total profit of each enterprise under different strategy combinations,the subgame refined Nash equilibrium is solved.Finally,assuming that the market includes all experienced consumers,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is analyzed.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Threat evaluation method of warships formation air defense based on AR(p)-DITOPSIS

For the target threat evaluation of warships formation air defense, the sample data are frequently insufficient and even incomplete. The existing evaluation methods rely too much on expertise and are difficult to carry out for the dynamic evaluation on time series. In order to solve these problems, a threat evaluation method based on the AR(p)(auto regressive(AR))-dynamic improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(DITOPSIS) method is proposed. The AR(p) model is adopted to predict the missing data on the time series. Then, the entropy weight method is applied to solve each index weight at the objective point. Kullback-Leibler divergence(KLD) is used to improve the traditional TOPSIS, and to carry out the target threat evaluation. The Poisson distribution is used to assign the weight value.Simulation results show that the improved AR(p)-DITOPSIS threat evaluation method can synthetically take into account the target threat degree in time series and is more suitable for the threat evaluation under the condition of missing the target data than the traditional TOPSIS method.

Development and Evaluation of a 7-DOF Haptic Interface

With the development of human robot interaction technologies, haptic interfaces are widely used for 3 D applications to provide the sense of touch. These interfaces have been utilized in medical simulation, virtual assembly and remote manipulation tasks. However, haptic interface design and control are still critical problems to reproduce the highly sensitive touch sense of humans. This paper presents the development and evaluation of a7-DOF(degree of freedom) haptic interface based on the modified delta mechanism. Firstly, both kinematics and dynamics of the modified mechanism are analyzed and presented. A novel gravity compensation algorithm based on the physical model is proposed and validated in simulation. A haptic controller is proposed based on the forward kinematics and the gravity compensation algorithm. To evaluate the control performance of the haptic interface, a prototype has been implemented. Three kinds of experiments: gravity compensation, static response and force tracking are performed respectively. The experimental results show that the mean error of the gravity compensation is less than 0.7 N and the maximum continuous force along the axis can be up to 6 N. This demonstrates the good performance of the proposed haptic interface.

Capacity-Power Consumption and Energy-Efficiency Evaluation of Green Wireless Networks

In this paper,we discuss in detail the basic issue of green design and consider an energy efficiency function as the metric to evaluate green cellular networks.Specifically,we investigate the transmit power required for an expected transmission capacity and propose a capacity-power formula based on the energy conservation and the Shannon capacity theorem.Two novel definitions of cell interference depth and handoff dynamic model are introduced and the corresponding expression of energy efficiency function is derived.Numerical results show that the energy efficiency function is closely correlated with the transmitted/received power required and the cell radius.Our work provides a useful basis for research and evaluation on green design and technology of cellular networks.

大数据分析在中医教学评价中的应用

在大数据和数字化转型的大背景下,文章分析、阐述了目前中医教学评价的困难以及如何将大数据技术应用在中医教学评价过程中,总结了大数据在中医教学评价过程中的应用方法。首先需要更加广泛地采集数据,包括静态数据、实时数据、非结构化数据等;然后通过系统化的数据标准体系构建,利用数据处理技术,建立全面的教学评价数据仓库;最后结合教学评价业务目标,构建动态数据分析模型,持续不断地以可视化方式直观输出评价结果,真正帮助教师、学生、教学管理者提高教学评价效率,为教学改革提供支撑。

考虑投入产出的常规公交调度绩效回溯性动态评价

实时调度因其灵活性在公交运营组织中发挥着重要决策作用。现行调度(员)绩效评价虽然能够考核行车计划执行情况,却忽略了在乘客体验和企业投入产出层面对调度效果考查,也不支持回溯过往调度实施效果。为使调度员能够精准提升调度技能和绩效、解决调度决策滞后造成的运能浪费等问题并提高乘客满意度,从投入产出及回溯性动态评价2个维度提出基于三阶段Super-SBM(super-efficiency slack-based measurement)模型的常规公交调度绩效评价方法,考虑路况及客流对调度效果的影响,在现行指标基础上从乘客角度增加运营速度、候车时间变化率及满载率标准差3项产出指标,构建评价体系。对2条上海公交线路的实际调度进行回溯性评价,验证了本文评价方法能准确区分调度效果差异。结果表明,高峰时段灵活的调度策略比在平峰能产生更明显的效益,且调度策略在不同时空场景呈现差异化适用性。通过回溯分析历史调度记录的绩效,一方面可以针对各场景为调度员提供调度决策支持,另一方面可为基于机器学习的公交实时调度策略生成技术挑选合适的学习样本,从而提升常规公交运营组织效率。

激光自适应光学系统可靠性改进效果评估

随着自适应光学技术在激光领域的发展,工程上以经典自适应光学(AO)系统为基础,增加了多种基于软件监测和硬件保护的改进措施以保证激光AO系统稳定连续出光。面对结构复杂度提升带来的可靠性挑战,如何构建系统失效模型对激光AO系统可靠性进行评估,成为影响激光AO系统发展的重要一环。本文以激光光稳净化AO系统为例,提出使用动态故障树方法对激光AO系统可靠性进行评估,根据设备间动态关系建立动态故障树(DFT),结合厂家信息、疲劳寿命试验与历史数据估计得到底事件失效率,使用二元决策图和马尔可夫模型求解得到DFT的可靠性参数。使用DFT分析增加改进措施的AO系统可靠运行时间,结果相对于基本故障树获得了十倍以上的提高。实际系统调试期间,在预计的可靠运行时间内未发生自因故障,与DFT估计结果一致。验证了应用DFT方法评估增加改进措施后的激光AO系统可靠性更准确。

基于机器学习的沥青路面压实度质量评估

为了提高沥青路面压实度预测的准确率,基于机器学习对沥青路面进行压实度质量评估;通过对比实际工程中不同压路机在沥青路面上的振动规律,构建振动压路机-沥青路面系统动力学模型,利用Simulink数值仿真软件对所构建的模型进行仿真,设计8种工况,对比压实度计值、压实度控制值、机械驱动功率、滚轮综合刚度、填筑体能量、单位体积压实功率6个压实度质量评估指标在各工况下的适用性差异;采用支持向量机、逻辑回归、k最近邻、决策树、朴素贝叶斯法5种传统的机器学习方法对各工况下的压实度质量评估指标样本进行训练,对比压实度预测准确率;设计压路机在不同碾压次数时的碾压路线,对比分别采用最优压实度质量评估指标和单一压实度质量评估指标的压实度预测准确率。结果表明:不同压实度质量评估指标在不同工况下的适用性不同,即使在同一种工况下,不同碾压次数时的适用性也存在差异;采用最优压实度质量评估指标代替单一压实度质量评估指标,压实度预测准确率提高5.8%;在5种传统的机器学习方法中,朴素贝叶斯法预测最优压实度质量评估指标类型的准确率最高,为96.22%。

地铁车站工程专项方案施工风险耦合致险评估

研究目的:安全专项方案风险评审是保障地铁车站重大工程施工安全的重要基础。针对地铁车站工程施工方案人工风险评审缺乏多风险耦合考虑、评审效率低等问题,提出构建基于系统动力学的风险耦合模型评估方法,其安全风险评价结果能有效支持专项施工方案风险评审和现场安全管理。研究结论:(1)基于工程安全风险事件的作用特征分析,得到了安全风险系统的演化路径及风险事件间的耦合关系;(2)建立了基于系统动力学的专项方案施工风险评价模型,其获得的具有时空信息工程风险评价结果,符合工程实际且便于工程师理解;(3)本研究成果可为地铁车站重大工程安全风险自动评审、方案修订以及现场应用提供支持,具有良好的理论和实践价值。

矿井通风系统可靠性动态评价方法研究

为对矿井通风系统可靠性进行跟踪动态评价,采用改进的AHP(层次分析法)算法确定主观权重,熵权法确定客观权重,通过Scott-Hinsley算法进行风网解算获取通风系统参数。为解决多次跟踪动态评价时计算量大、所需评价专家数量多的问题,引入二维云模型进行可靠性评价,建立矿井通风系统可靠性动态评价二维云模型,可实现通风系统可靠性的动态跟踪快速评价。应用实例表明,该方法评价结果科学可靠,能反映出通风系统可靠性变化状态;进行多次评价时,评价过程更简洁,能实现快速准确评价,可为矿井通风管理工作提供技术支持。

基于非线性空气弹簧模型的整车仿真与主客观评价

应用非线性空气弹簧模型,研究了空气悬架整车的动力学仿真和主观评价。结合空气弹簧频率、振幅相关性模型与Simulink仿真,给出了空气悬架整车7自由度模型,对比了不同路面情形下悬架动行程和簧上加速度的均方根值和功率谱密度。从时域和频率2个角度分析了不同速度、路面及减振器阻尼情形下空气悬架整车的动态特性。对装有不同空气弹簧的整车进行主、客观试验测试。结果表明:悬架动行程预测误差小于7%,簧上位置加速度共振峰值预测误差小于6%,共振频率预测误差小于6%;从而验证了所提模型的普适性和精确性;反映了带空气悬架整车的动态特性,解释了平顺性主客观试验的机理。

面向工业电热综合能源系统的蒸汽管存效应研究

为研究蒸汽系统的热惯性从而解决工业园区低碳能源系统调度难题,提出了反映蒸汽时空传输特性的蒸汽系统动态分析模型,建立包括5个存储关键参数和3个指标的蒸汽储能虚拟模型,用于量化热惯量。对163节点城市规模蒸汽系统运行过程中的热惯量进行了量化,其中该蒸汽网络在0.5 h调度周期下的净储热量可达7 440.3 kg,放能能力达到了10.16 t,平均放能利用率达到了14.59%,为工业园区蒸汽系统分析和运行优化提供了定量依据。

智能可穿戴监测服装性能评价模型的研究进展

为促进可穿戴智能服装评价标准形成进而促进可穿戴智能服装产业化发展,系统介绍人体-织物数理模型及人体与织物间动态压力数值模拟的评价模型。基于弹性力学理论,探究静止状态下拉普拉斯数理模型的研究进展;介绍织物结构对接触压力的影响及织物结构的数值模拟,并进一步探究着装过程、运动状态下人体-织物间连续动态压力的数值模拟情况,以及数值模拟法与计算机技术结合的现状。最后讨论现阶段可穿戴智能服装评价模型的应用,并提出使用数值模拟法进行多物理场耦合、模拟加速度运动用于提高可穿戴智能服装可靠性评价标准的发展展望。

近距空战中目标飞机战术机动数学模型建模与仿真

作为空空导弹设计与验证的主要手段,数字仿真技术在制导系统性能评估、抗干扰性能评估、空战对抗仿真等领域发挥着重要的作用。为解决空空导弹数字仿真试验中目标飞机机动样式单一,不能反映近距格斗过程中目标姿态的变化问题,梳理了飞机机动数学模型在导弹总体性能评估与对抗推演等方面的应用背景需求。对六自由度飞机机动简化数学模型的建设进行了分析和论证。构建了飞机作战典型机动动作库、机动动作指令生成器,实现了以较少的参数刻画不同的机动动作。在三自由度质点运动模型基础上,考虑机动过载、目标攻角、横滚角变化,建立目标机动数学模型。根据所建模型,对几种典型机动教学模型进行数字仿真。仿真结果表明,目标机动轨迹与预期吻合,能够满足导弹总体设计、对抗推演对数字仿真的需求。

城镇开发边界划定智慧技术集成研究——基于人居环境科学视角

城镇开发边界是空间增长底线的管控工具,与人类活动和人居环境建设密切相关。科学划定城镇开发边界需要人居环境科学和智慧技术有机结合。现有对城镇开发边界划定技术背后的理论支撑研究不足,对人居环境全系统尤其是人的因素关注不够,同时各类技术探索相对碎片化,缺乏对边界划定全流程技术的整合与集成应用。本文以人居环境科学为理论内核,从人的需求、人居环境的系统性和复杂性出发,提出系统耦合“双评价”、系统动力学模型、城镇开发潜力评价模型及多情景地理模拟等关键技术的城镇开发边界划定的智慧技术集成框架,科学支撑城镇发展需求预测、国土空间格局研判和城镇用地布局调控,为城镇开发边界划定和国土空间格局优化提供有益借鉴。

协同开采技术效应的动态演化模型及应用

为量化表征协同开采技术的有序状态及协同效应,保证协同开采技术的持续高协同性能,构建了协同效应的动态演化模型。此演化模型主要分为5个步骤:基于协同学经典演化方程选择模型的关键参量,围绕协同效应内涵构建模型的底层计算逻辑;吸取改进的群决策层次分析法、熵权法及模糊综合评价法的优点对关键参量量化表征;根据模型的底层计算逻辑计算协同效应;基于灰色关联度计算控制参量与协同效应的关联度;结合计算结果对协同效应的动态演化及控制参量的调控能力进行分析,对工程实践给出评价及建议。最后以高峰矿105号矿体的协同开采技术为例对模型进行应用验证。