AFSTGCN:Prediction for multivariate time series using an adaptive fused spatial-temporal graph convolutional network

The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.

Adaptive spatial-temporal graph attention network for traffic speed prediction

Considering the nonlinear structure and spatial-temporal correlation of traffic network,and the influence of potential correlation between nodes of traffic network on the spatial features,this paper proposes a traffic speed prediction model based on the combination of graph attention network with self-adaptive adjacency matrix(SAdpGAT)and bidirectional gated recurrent unit(BiGRU).First-ly,the model introduces graph attention network(GAT)to extract the spatial features of real road network and potential road network respectively in spatial dimension.Secondly,the spatial features are input into BiGRU to extract the time series features.Finally,the prediction results of the real road network and the potential road network are connected to generate the final prediction results of the model.The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is im-proved obviously on METR-LA and PEMS-BAY datasets,which proves the advantages of the pro-posed spatial-temporal model in traffic speed prediction.

STGSA:A Novel Spatial-Temporal Graph Synchronous Aggregation Model for Traffic Prediction

The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most existing frameworks typically utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations modeling.However,this stepwise pattern may limit the effectiveness and efficiency in spatial-temporal feature extraction and cause the overlook of important information in some steps.Furthermore,it is lacking sufficient guidance from prior information while modeling based on a given spatial adjacency graph(e.g.,deriving from the geodesic distance or approximate connectivity),and may not reflect the actual interaction between nodes.To overcome those limitations,our paper proposes a spatial-temporal graph synchronous aggregation(STGSA)model to extract the localized and long-term spatial-temporal dependencies simultaneously.Specifically,a tailored graph aggregation method in the vertex domain is designed to extract spatial and temporal features in one graph convolution process.In each STGSA block,we devise a directed temporal correlation graph to represent the localized and long-term dependencies between nodes,and the potential temporal dependence is further fine-tuned by an adaptive weighting operation.Meanwhile,we construct an elaborated spatial adjacency matrix to represent the road sensor graph by considering both physical distance and node similarity in a datadriven manner.Then,inspired by the multi-head attention mechanism which can jointly emphasize information from different r epresentation subspaces,we construct a multi-stream module based on the STGSA blocks to capture global information.It projects the embedding input repeatedly with multiple different channels.Finally,the predicted values are generated by stacking several multi-stream modules.Extensive experiments are constructed on six real-world datasets,and numerical results show that the proposed STGSA model significantly outperforms the benchmarks.

Dense Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network Based on Lightweight OpenPose for Detecting Falls

Fall behavior is closely related to high mortality in the elderly,so fall detection becomes an important and urgent research area.However,the existing fall detection methods are difficult to be applied in daily life due to a large amount of calculation and poor detection accuracy.To solve the above problems,this paper proposes a dense spatial-temporal graph convolutional network based on lightweight OpenPose.Lightweight OpenPose uses MobileNet as a feature extraction network,and the prediction layer uses bottleneck-asymmetric structure,thus reducing the amount of the network.The bottleneck-asymmetrical structure compresses the number of input channels of feature maps by 1×1 convolution and replaces the 7×7 convolution structure with the asymmetric structure of 1×7 convolution,7×1 convolution,and 7×7 convolution in parallel.The spatial-temporal graph convolutional network divides the multi-layer convolution into dense blocks,and the convolutional layers in each dense block are connected,thus improving the feature transitivity,enhancing the network’s ability to extract features,thus improving the detection accuracy.Two representative datasets,Multiple Cameras Fall dataset(MCF),and Nanyang Technological University Red Green Blue+Depth Action Recognition dataset(NTU RGB+D),are selected for our experiments,among which NTU RGB+D has two evaluation benchmarks.The results show that the proposed model is superior to the current fall detection models.The accuracy of this network on the MCF dataset is 96.3%,and the accuracies on the two evaluation benchmarks of the NTU RGB+D dataset are 85.6%and 93.5%,respectively.

Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks for System-Level Mobile Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic pattern prediction in largescale networks is of great importance for intelligent system management and automatic resource allocation.System-level mobile traffic forecasting has significant challenges due to the tremendous temporal and spatial dynamics introduced by diverse Internet user behaviors and frequent traffic migration.Spatialtemporal graph modeling is an efficient approach for analyzing the spatial relations and temporal trends of mobile traffic in a large system.Previous research may not reflect the optimal dependency by ignoring inter-base station dependency or pre-determining the explicit geological distance as the interrelationship of base stations.To overcome the limitations of graph structure,this study proposes an adaptive graph convolutional network(AGCN)that captures the latent spatial dependency by developing self-adaptive dependency matrices and acquires temporal dependency using recurrent neural networks.Evaluated on two mobile network datasets,the experimental results demonstrate that this method outperforms other baselines and reduces the mean absolute error by 3.7%and 5.6%compared to time-series based approaches.

A hybrid spatial-temporal deep learning prediction model of industrial methanol-to-olefins process

Methanol-to-olefins,as a promising non-oil pathway for the synthesis of light olefins,has been successfully industrialized.The accurate prediction of process variables can yield significant benefits for advanced process control and optimization.The challenge of this task is underscored by the failure of traditional methods in capturing the complex characteristics of industrial processes,such as high nonlinearities,dynamics,and data distribution shift caused by diverse operating conditions.In this paper,we propose a novel hybrid spatial-temporal deep learning prediction model to address these issues.Firstly,a unique data normalization technique called reversible instance normalization is employed to solve the problem of different data distributions.Subsequently,convolutional neural network integrated with the self-attention mechanism are utilized to extract the temporal patterns.Meanwhile,a multi-graph convolutional network is leveraged to model the spatial interactions.Afterward,the extracted temporal and spatial features are fused as input into a fully connected neural network to complete the prediction.Finally,the outputs are denormalized to obtain the ultimate results.The monitoring results of the dynamic trends of process variables in an actual industrial methanol-to-olefins process demonstrate that our model not only achieves superior prediction performance but also can reveal complex spatial-temporal relationships using the learned attention matrices and adjacency matrices,making the model more interpretable.Lastly,this model is deployed onto an end-to-end Industrial Internet Platform,which achieves effective practical results.

A lightweight false alarm suppression method in heterogeneous change detection

Overlooking the issue of false alarm suppression in heterogeneous change detection leads to inferior detection per-formance.This paper proposes a method to handle false alarms in heterogeneous change detection.A lightweight network of two channels is bulit based on the combination of convolutional neural network(CNN)and graph convolutional network(GCN).CNNs learn feature difference maps of multitemporal images,and attention modules adaptively fuse CNN-based and graph-based features for different scales.GCNs with a new kernel filter adaptively distinguish between nodes with the same and those with different labels,generating change maps.Experimental evaluation on two datasets validates the efficacy of the pro-posed method in addressing false alarms.

Combining random forest and graph wavenet for spatial-temporal data prediction

The prosperity of deep learning has revolutionized many machine learning tasks(such as image recognition,natural language processing,etc.).With the widespread use of autonomous sensor networks,the Internet of Things,and crowd sourcing to monitor real-world processes,the volume,diversity,and veracity of spatial-temporal data are expanding rapidly.However,traditional methods have their limitation in coping with spatial-temporal dependencies,which either incorporate too much data from weakly connected locations or ignore the relationships between those interrelated but geographically separated regions.In this paper,a novel deep learning model(termed RF-GWN)is proposed by combining Random Forest(RF)and Graph WaveNet(GWN).In RF-GWN,a new adaptive weight matrix is formulated by combining Variable Importance Measure(VIM)of RF with the long time series feature extraction ability of GWN in order to capture potential spatial dependencies and extract long-term dependencies from the input data.Furthermore,two experiments are conducted on two real-world datasets with the purpose of predicting traffic flow and groundwater level.Baseline models are implemented by Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network(DCRNN),Spatial-Temporal GCN(ST-GCN),and GWN to verify the effectiveness of the RF-GWN.The Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)are selected as performance criteria.The results show that the proposed model can better capture the spatial-temporal relationships,the prediction performance on the METR-LA dataset is slightly improved,and the index of the prediction task on the PEMS-BAY dataset is significantly improved.These improvements are extended to the groundwater dataset,which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.Thus,the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model RF-GWN in both traffic flow and groundwater level prediction are demonstrated.

A geographical and operational deep graph convolutional approach for flight delay prediction

Flight delay prediction has attracted great interest in civil aviation community due to its significant role in airline planning,flight scheduling,airport operation,and passenger service.Flight delay is affected by numerous factors and irregularly propagates in air transportation networks owing to flight connectivity,which brings critical challenges to accurate flight delay prediction.In recent years,Graph Convolutional Networks(GCNs)have become popular in flight delay prediction due to the advantage in extracting complicated relationships.However,most of the existing GCN-based methods have failed to effectively capture the spatial-temporal information in flight delay prediction.In this paper,a Geographical and Operational Graph Convolutional Network(GOGCN)is proposed for multi-airport flight delay prediction.The GOGCN is a GCN-based spatial-temporal model that improves node feature representation ability with geographical and operational spatial-temporal interactions in a graph.Specifically,an operational aggregator is designed to extract global operational information based on the graph structure,while a geographical aggregator is developed to capture the similar nature among spatially close airports.Extensive experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a satisfying accuracy improvement.

Very Short-Term Forecasting of Distributed PV Power Using GSTANN

Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for secure operation of a power system.Effective prediction of PV power can improve new energy consumption capacity,help power system planning,promote development of smart grids,and ultimately support construction of smart energy cities.However,different from centralized PV power forecasts,three critical challenges are encountered in distributed PV power forecasting:1)lack of on-site meteorological observation,2)leveraging extraneous data to enhance forecasting performance,3)spatial-temporal modelling methods of meteorological information around the distributed PV stations.To address these issues,we propose a Graph Spatial-Temporal Attention Neural Network(GSTANN)to predict the very short-term power of distributed PV.First,we use satellite remote sensing data covering a specific geographical area to supplement meteorological information for all PV stations.Then,we apply the graph convolution block to model the non-Euclidean local and global spatial dependence and design an attention mechanism to simultaneously derive temporal and spatial correlations.Subsequently,we propose a data fusion module to solve the time misalignment between satellite remote sensing data and surrounding measured on-site data and design a power approximation block to map the conversion from solar irradiance to PV power.Experiments conducted with real-world case study datasets demonstrate that the prediction performance of GSTANN outperforms five state-of-the-art baselines.

Real-Time Safety Behavior Detection Technology of Indoors Power Personnel Based on Human Key Points

Safety production is of great significance to the development of enterprises and society.Accidents often cause great losses because of the particularity environment of electric power.Therefore,it is important to improve the safety supervision and protection in the electric power environment.In this paper,we simulate the actual electric power operation scenario by monitoring equipment and propose a real-time detection method of illegal actions based on human body key points to ensure safety behavior in real time.In this method,the human body key points in video frames were first extracted by the high-resolution network,and then classified in real time by spatial-temporal graph convolutional network.Experimental results show that this method can effectively detect illegal actions in the simulated scene.