in this paper we determined the northern boundaries of rhinoceros distribution in different historic stages base on our previous study results of rhinoceros extinction process in China. With Logistic equation, the env...in this paper we determined the northern boundaries of rhinoceros distribution in different historic stages base on our previous study results of rhinoceros extinction process in China. With Logistic equation, the environmental carrying capacity was explored and a spatial4emporal model for rhinoceros extinction was established.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
To clarify the connotations and extensions of urban resilience,this study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle with 16 cities as research subjects.A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to...To clarify the connotations and extensions of urban resilience,this study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle with 16 cities as research subjects.A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to measure the resilience of each city from 2003 to 2020.The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed using Kernel density estimation,standard deviation ellipse,and spatial Markov chain analysis,and the spatial Tobit model was introduced to discover the influencing factors.The results indicate the following:①Urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle displays an upward trend,with the center of gravity moving to the southwest,and the polarization phenomenon intensifying.②The urban resilience level in a region has certain spatial and geographical dependence,while the probability of urban resilience transfer differs in adjacent cities with different resilience levels.③Urban centrality,economic scale,openness level,and financial development promote urban resilience,whereas government scale significantly inhibits it.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the urban resilience of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.展开更多
The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries an...The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.展开更多
Highly evolved granite is an important sign of the mature continent crust and closely associated with deposits of rare metals.In this work,the authors undertake systematically zircon U-Pb ages and whole rock elemental...Highly evolved granite is an important sign of the mature continent crust and closely associated with deposits of rare metals.In this work,the authors undertake systematically zircon U-Pb ages and whole rock elemental data for highly evolved granitic intrusions from the Great Xing’an Range(GXR),NE China,to elucidate their discriminant criteria,spatial-temporal distribution,differentiation and geodynamic mecha-nism.Geochemical data of these highly evolved granites suggest that high w(SiO_(2))(>70%)and differentiation index(DI>88)could be quantified indicators,while strong Eu depletion,high TE_(1,3),lowΣREE and low Zr/Hf,Nb/Ta,K/Rb could only be qualitative indicators.Zircon U-Pb ages suggest that the highly evolved gran-ites in the GXR were mainly formed in Late Mesozoic,which can be divided into two major stages:Late Ju-rassic-early Early Cretaceous(162-136 Ma,peak at 138 Ma),and late Early Cretaceous(136-106 Ma,peak at 126 Ma).The highly evolved granites are mainly distributed in the central-southern GXR,and display a weakly trend of getting younger from northwest to southeast,meanwhile indicating the metallogenic potential of rare metals within the central GXR.The spatial-temporal distribution,combined with regional geological data,indicates the highly evolved Mesozoic granites in the GXR were emplaced in an extensional environ-ment,of which the Late Jurassic-early Early Cretaceous extension was related to the closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean and roll-back of the Paleo-Pacific Plate,while the late Early Cretaceous extension was mainly related to the roll-back of the Paleo-Pacific Plate.展开更多
The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most exi...The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most existing frameworks typically utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations modeling.However,this stepwise pattern may limit the effectiveness and efficiency in spatial-temporal feature extraction and cause the overlook of important information in some steps.Furthermore,it is lacking sufficient guidance from prior information while modeling based on a given spatial adjacency graph(e.g.,deriving from the geodesic distance or approximate connectivity),and may not reflect the actual interaction between nodes.To overcome those limitations,our paper proposes a spatial-temporal graph synchronous aggregation(STGSA)model to extract the localized and long-term spatial-temporal dependencies simultaneously.Specifically,a tailored graph aggregation method in the vertex domain is designed to extract spatial and temporal features in one graph convolution process.In each STGSA block,we devise a directed temporal correlation graph to represent the localized and long-term dependencies between nodes,and the potential temporal dependence is further fine-tuned by an adaptive weighting operation.Meanwhile,we construct an elaborated spatial adjacency matrix to represent the road sensor graph by considering both physical distance and node similarity in a datadriven manner.Then,inspired by the multi-head attention mechanism which can jointly emphasize information from different r epresentation subspaces,we construct a multi-stream module based on the STGSA blocks to capture global information.It projects the embedding input repeatedly with multiple different channels.Finally,the predicted values are generated by stacking several multi-stream modules.Extensive experiments are constructed on six real-world datasets,and numerical results show that the proposed STGSA model significantly outperforms the benchmarks.展开更多
As an important river in the western part of Jilin Province,the lower reach of the Nenjiang River is an important wetland water source conservation area in Jilin Province.Within the watershed,it governs the Momoge Wet...As an important river in the western part of Jilin Province,the lower reach of the Nenjiang River is an important wetland water source conservation area in Jilin Province.Within the watershed,it governs the Momoge Wetland,the Xianghai Wetland,and the Danjiang Wetland in Jilin Province.The main problem in the lower reaches of the Nenjiang River is the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,and the intensification of land salinization.Zhenlai County and Da an City in the Nenjiang River Basin have sufficient surface water resources,with surface water as the drinking water source.Baicheng City and Tongyu County have scarce surface water resources,and both use groundwater as their domestic water source.The main polluted section in the basin is the Xianghai Reservoir,and the annual water quality evaluation is Class V.However,the water quality of the Tao er River,the main stream of the Nenjiang River,is significantly better than that of the Xianghai Reservoir.In order to better study the water environmental pollution situation in the Nenjiang River basin,monitoring data from five sections of non seasonal rivers in the basin from 2012 to 2021 were selected for studying water quality.This in-depth exploration of the water pollution status and river water quality change trends in the Nenjiang River basin is of great significance for future rural development,agricultural pattern transformation,and the promotion of water ecological civilization construction.展开更多
Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surround...Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.展开更多
Investigating the transmission of infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic trend of an infectious disease and evaluating the effects of control measures are the continuing subject of public health participators. I...Investigating the transmission of infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic trend of an infectious disease and evaluating the effects of control measures are the continuing subject of public health participators. In recent years the spatial-temporal model has been proposed as a powerful tool to get this information from large incomplete and insufficiently general monitoring data.展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of the tide-induced Lagrangian Residual Circulations (LRC hereafter), wind-driven LRC, and the coupling dynamic characteristics were simulated using ECOM, given the He...The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of the tide-induced Lagrangian Residual Circulations (LRC hereafter), wind-driven LRC, and the coupling dynamic characteristics were simulated using ECOM, given the Hellerman and Rosenstein global monthly-mean wind stresses. The results showed that the tide-induced LRC of the harmonic constituent M2 bears an identical pattern in four seasons in the Bohai Sea: the surface one is weak with random directions; however, there exist a southeast current from the Bohai Strait to the Laizhou bay, and a weakly anticlockwise gyre in the south of the Bohai Strait for the bottom layer LRC. The magnitude of bottom layer tide-induced LRC is larger than the surface one, and moreover, it contributes significantly to the whole LRC in the Bohai Sea. Unlike the identical structure of the tide-induced LRC, the wind driven LRC varies seasonally under the prevailing monsoon. It forms a distinct gyre under the summer and winter monsoons in July and January respectively, but it seems weak and non-directional in April and September.展开更多
Fall behavior is closely related to high mortality in the elderly,so fall detection becomes an important and urgent research area.However,the existing fall detection methods are difficult to be applied in daily life d...Fall behavior is closely related to high mortality in the elderly,so fall detection becomes an important and urgent research area.However,the existing fall detection methods are difficult to be applied in daily life due to a large amount of calculation and poor detection accuracy.To solve the above problems,this paper proposes a dense spatial-temporal graph convolutional network based on lightweight OpenPose.Lightweight OpenPose uses MobileNet as a feature extraction network,and the prediction layer uses bottleneck-asymmetric structure,thus reducing the amount of the network.The bottleneck-asymmetrical structure compresses the number of input channels of feature maps by 1×1 convolution and replaces the 7×7 convolution structure with the asymmetric structure of 1×7 convolution,7×1 convolution,and 7×7 convolution in parallel.The spatial-temporal graph convolutional network divides the multi-layer convolution into dense blocks,and the convolutional layers in each dense block are connected,thus improving the feature transitivity,enhancing the network’s ability to extract features,thus improving the detection accuracy.Two representative datasets,Multiple Cameras Fall dataset(MCF),and Nanyang Technological University Red Green Blue+Depth Action Recognition dataset(NTU RGB+D),are selected for our experiments,among which NTU RGB+D has two evaluation benchmarks.The results show that the proposed model is superior to the current fall detection models.The accuracy of this network on the MCF dataset is 96.3%,and the accuracies on the two evaluation benchmarks of the NTU RGB+D dataset are 85.6%and 93.5%,respectively.展开更多
The study of temporal and spatial variations of nitrate in groundwater under different soil nitrogen environments is helpful to the security of groundwater resources in agricultural areas.In this paper,based on 320 gr...The study of temporal and spatial variations of nitrate in groundwater under different soil nitrogen environments is helpful to the security of groundwater resources in agricultural areas.In this paper,based on 320 groups of soil and groundwater samples collected at the same time,geostatistical analysis and multiple regression analysis were comprehensively used to conduct the evaluation of nitrogen contents in both groundwater and soil.From May to August,as the nitrification of groundwater is dominant,the average concentration of nitrate nitrogen is 34.80 mg/L;The variation of soil ammonia nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen is moderate from May to July,and the variation coefficient decreased sharply and then increased in August.There is a high correlation between the nitrate nitrogen in groundwater and soil in July,and there is a high correlation between the nitrate nitrogen in groundwater and ammonium nitrogen in soil in August and nitrate nitrogen in soil in July.From May to August,the area of low groundwater nitrate nitrogen in 0-5 mg/L and 5-10 mg/L decreased from 10.97%to 0,and the proportion of high-value area(greater than 70 mg/L)increased from 21.19%to 27.29%.Nitrate nitrogen is the main factor affecting the quality of groundwater.The correlation analysis of nitrate nitrogen in groundwater,nitrate nitrogen in soil and ammonium nitrogen shows that they have a certain period of delay.The areas with high concentration of nitrate in groundwater are mainly concentrated in the western part of the study area,which has a high consistency with the high value areas of soil nitrate distribution from July to August,and a high difference with the spatial position of soil ammonia nitrogen distribution in August.展开更多
Forest soil carbon is a major carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystems,and accurate estimation of soil organic carbon(SOC)stocks in forest ecosystems is rather challenging.This study compared the prediction performance o...Forest soil carbon is a major carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystems,and accurate estimation of soil organic carbon(SOC)stocks in forest ecosystems is rather challenging.This study compared the prediction performance of three empirical model approaches namely,regression kriging(RK),multiple stepwise regression(MSR),random forest(RF),and boosted regression trees(BRT)to predict SOC stocks in Northeast China for 1990 and 2015.Furthermore,the spatial variation of SOC stocks and the main controlling environmental factors during the past 25 years were identified.A total of 82(in 1990)and 157(in 2015)topsoil(0–20 cm)samples with 12 environmental factors(soil property,climate,topography and biology)were selected for model construction.Randomly selected80%of the soil sample data were used to train the models and the other 20%data for model verification using mean absolute error,root mean square error,coefficient of determination and Lin's consistency correlation coefficient indices.We found BRT model as the best prediction model and it could explain 67%and 60%spatial variation of SOC stocks,in 1990,and 2015,respectively.Predicted maps of all models in both periods showed similar spatial distribution characteristics,with the lower SOC in northeast and higher SOC in southwest.Mean annual temperature and elevation were the key environmental factors influencing the spatial variation of SOC stock in both periods.SOC stocks were mainly stored under Cambosols,Gleyosols and Isohumosols,accounting for 95.6%(1990)and 95.9%(2015).Overall,SOC stocks increased by 471 Tg C during the past 25 years.Our study found that the BRT model employing common environmental factors was the most robust method for forest topsoil SOC stocks inventories.The spatial resolution of BRT model enabled us to pinpoint in which areas of Northeast China that new forest tree planting would be most effective for enhancing forest C stocks.Overall,our approach is likely to be useful in forestry management and ecological restoration at and beyond the regional scale.展开更多
Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnectio...Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.展开更多
The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis...The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.展开更多
Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse ...Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.展开更多
文摘in this paper we determined the northern boundaries of rhinoceros distribution in different historic stages base on our previous study results of rhinoceros extinction process in China. With Logistic equation, the environmental carrying capacity was explored and a spatial4emporal model for rhinoceros extinction was established.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
基金supported by the Graduate Research and Innovation Project of Chongqing Normal University[Grant No.YKC23035],comprehensive evaluation,and driving factors of urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.
文摘To clarify the connotations and extensions of urban resilience,this study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle with 16 cities as research subjects.A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to measure the resilience of each city from 2003 to 2020.The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed using Kernel density estimation,standard deviation ellipse,and spatial Markov chain analysis,and the spatial Tobit model was introduced to discover the influencing factors.The results indicate the following:①Urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle displays an upward trend,with the center of gravity moving to the southwest,and the polarization phenomenon intensifying.②The urban resilience level in a region has certain spatial and geographical dependence,while the probability of urban resilience transfer differs in adjacent cities with different resilience levels.③Urban centrality,economic scale,openness level,and financial development promote urban resilience,whereas government scale significantly inhibits it.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the urban resilience of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.
基金supported by the China Scholarship Council and the CERNET Innovation Project under grant No.20170111.
文摘The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.
基金Supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.92062216,41888101).
文摘Highly evolved granite is an important sign of the mature continent crust and closely associated with deposits of rare metals.In this work,the authors undertake systematically zircon U-Pb ages and whole rock elemental data for highly evolved granitic intrusions from the Great Xing’an Range(GXR),NE China,to elucidate their discriminant criteria,spatial-temporal distribution,differentiation and geodynamic mecha-nism.Geochemical data of these highly evolved granites suggest that high w(SiO_(2))(>70%)and differentiation index(DI>88)could be quantified indicators,while strong Eu depletion,high TE_(1,3),lowΣREE and low Zr/Hf,Nb/Ta,K/Rb could only be qualitative indicators.Zircon U-Pb ages suggest that the highly evolved gran-ites in the GXR were mainly formed in Late Mesozoic,which can be divided into two major stages:Late Ju-rassic-early Early Cretaceous(162-136 Ma,peak at 138 Ma),and late Early Cretaceous(136-106 Ma,peak at 126 Ma).The highly evolved granites are mainly distributed in the central-southern GXR,and display a weakly trend of getting younger from northwest to southeast,meanwhile indicating the metallogenic potential of rare metals within the central GXR.The spatial-temporal distribution,combined with regional geological data,indicates the highly evolved Mesozoic granites in the GXR were emplaced in an extensional environ-ment,of which the Late Jurassic-early Early Cretaceous extension was related to the closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean and roll-back of the Paleo-Pacific Plate,while the late Early Cretaceous extension was mainly related to the roll-back of the Paleo-Pacific Plate.
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFB2104001)。
文摘The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most existing frameworks typically utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations modeling.However,this stepwise pattern may limit the effectiveness and efficiency in spatial-temporal feature extraction and cause the overlook of important information in some steps.Furthermore,it is lacking sufficient guidance from prior information while modeling based on a given spatial adjacency graph(e.g.,deriving from the geodesic distance or approximate connectivity),and may not reflect the actual interaction between nodes.To overcome those limitations,our paper proposes a spatial-temporal graph synchronous aggregation(STGSA)model to extract the localized and long-term spatial-temporal dependencies simultaneously.Specifically,a tailored graph aggregation method in the vertex domain is designed to extract spatial and temporal features in one graph convolution process.In each STGSA block,we devise a directed temporal correlation graph to represent the localized and long-term dependencies between nodes,and the potential temporal dependence is further fine-tuned by an adaptive weighting operation.Meanwhile,we construct an elaborated spatial adjacency matrix to represent the road sensor graph by considering both physical distance and node similarity in a datadriven manner.Then,inspired by the multi-head attention mechanism which can jointly emphasize information from different r epresentation subspaces,we construct a multi-stream module based on the STGSA blocks to capture global information.It projects the embedding input repeatedly with multiple different channels.Finally,the predicted values are generated by stacking several multi-stream modules.Extensive experiments are constructed on six real-world datasets,and numerical results show that the proposed STGSA model significantly outperforms the benchmarks.
文摘As an important river in the western part of Jilin Province,the lower reach of the Nenjiang River is an important wetland water source conservation area in Jilin Province.Within the watershed,it governs the Momoge Wetland,the Xianghai Wetland,and the Danjiang Wetland in Jilin Province.The main problem in the lower reaches of the Nenjiang River is the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,and the intensification of land salinization.Zhenlai County and Da an City in the Nenjiang River Basin have sufficient surface water resources,with surface water as the drinking water source.Baicheng City and Tongyu County have scarce surface water resources,and both use groundwater as their domestic water source.The main polluted section in the basin is the Xianghai Reservoir,and the annual water quality evaluation is Class V.However,the water quality of the Tao er River,the main stream of the Nenjiang River,is significantly better than that of the Xianghai Reservoir.In order to better study the water environmental pollution situation in the Nenjiang River basin,monitoring data from five sections of non seasonal rivers in the basin from 2012 to 2021 were selected for studying water quality.This in-depth exploration of the water pollution status and river water quality change trends in the Nenjiang River basin is of great significance for future rural development,agricultural pattern transformation,and the promotion of water ecological civilization construction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018AAA0101005,2018AAA0102404)the Program of the Huawei Technologies Co.Ltd.(FA2018111061SOW12)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61773054)the Youth Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Management and Control(20190213)。
文摘Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.
文摘Investigating the transmission of infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic trend of an infectious disease and evaluating the effects of control measures are the continuing subject of public health participators. In recent years the spatial-temporal model has been proposed as a powerful tool to get this information from large incomplete and insufficiently general monitoring data.
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金N ational N atural Science Foundation of China, N o.40271020 K now ledge Innovation Project of the Institute ofG eographic Sciences and N aturalResources Research,CA S,N o.CX IO G -A 04-09
文摘The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of the tide-induced Lagrangian Residual Circulations (LRC hereafter), wind-driven LRC, and the coupling dynamic characteristics were simulated using ECOM, given the Hellerman and Rosenstein global monthly-mean wind stresses. The results showed that the tide-induced LRC of the harmonic constituent M2 bears an identical pattern in four seasons in the Bohai Sea: the surface one is weak with random directions; however, there exist a southeast current from the Bohai Strait to the Laizhou bay, and a weakly anticlockwise gyre in the south of the Bohai Strait for the bottom layer LRC. The magnitude of bottom layer tide-induced LRC is larger than the surface one, and moreover, it contributes significantly to the whole LRC in the Bohai Sea. Unlike the identical structure of the tide-induced LRC, the wind driven LRC varies seasonally under the prevailing monsoon. It forms a distinct gyre under the summer and winter monsoons in July and January respectively, but it seems weak and non-directional in April and September.
基金supported,in part,by the National Nature Science Foundation of China under Grant Numbers 62272236,62376128in part,by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant Numbers BK20201136,BK20191401.
文摘Fall behavior is closely related to high mortality in the elderly,so fall detection becomes an important and urgent research area.However,the existing fall detection methods are difficult to be applied in daily life due to a large amount of calculation and poor detection accuracy.To solve the above problems,this paper proposes a dense spatial-temporal graph convolutional network based on lightweight OpenPose.Lightweight OpenPose uses MobileNet as a feature extraction network,and the prediction layer uses bottleneck-asymmetric structure,thus reducing the amount of the network.The bottleneck-asymmetrical structure compresses the number of input channels of feature maps by 1×1 convolution and replaces the 7×7 convolution structure with the asymmetric structure of 1×7 convolution,7×1 convolution,and 7×7 convolution in parallel.The spatial-temporal graph convolutional network divides the multi-layer convolution into dense blocks,and the convolutional layers in each dense block are connected,thus improving the feature transitivity,enhancing the network’s ability to extract features,thus improving the detection accuracy.Two representative datasets,Multiple Cameras Fall dataset(MCF),and Nanyang Technological University Red Green Blue+Depth Action Recognition dataset(NTU RGB+D),are selected for our experiments,among which NTU RGB+D has two evaluation benchmarks.The results show that the proposed model is superior to the current fall detection models.The accuracy of this network on the MCF dataset is 96.3%,and the accuracies on the two evaluation benchmarks of the NTU RGB+D dataset are 85.6%and 93.5%,respectively.
基金Youth Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (42101353)the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Science Plan Project (2022-R-063)Liaoning Social Science Planning Fund Project (L21BGL046)。
文摘The study of temporal and spatial variations of nitrate in groundwater under different soil nitrogen environments is helpful to the security of groundwater resources in agricultural areas.In this paper,based on 320 groups of soil and groundwater samples collected at the same time,geostatistical analysis and multiple regression analysis were comprehensively used to conduct the evaluation of nitrogen contents in both groundwater and soil.From May to August,as the nitrification of groundwater is dominant,the average concentration of nitrate nitrogen is 34.80 mg/L;The variation of soil ammonia nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen is moderate from May to July,and the variation coefficient decreased sharply and then increased in August.There is a high correlation between the nitrate nitrogen in groundwater and soil in July,and there is a high correlation between the nitrate nitrogen in groundwater and ammonium nitrogen in soil in August and nitrate nitrogen in soil in July.From May to August,the area of low groundwater nitrate nitrogen in 0-5 mg/L and 5-10 mg/L decreased from 10.97%to 0,and the proportion of high-value area(greater than 70 mg/L)increased from 21.19%to 27.29%.Nitrate nitrogen is the main factor affecting the quality of groundwater.The correlation analysis of nitrate nitrogen in groundwater,nitrate nitrogen in soil and ammonium nitrogen shows that they have a certain period of delay.The areas with high concentration of nitrate in groundwater are mainly concentrated in the western part of the study area,which has a high consistency with the high value areas of soil nitrate distribution from July to August,and a high difference with the spatial position of soil ammonia nitrogen distribution in August.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2021YFD1500200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42077149)+4 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2019M660782)National Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Program of China(Grant No.2019FY101300)Doctoral research start-up fund project of Liaoning Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2021-BS-136)China Scholarship Council(201908210132)Young Scientific and Technological Talents Project of Liaoning Province(Grant Nos.LSNQN201910 and LSNQN201914)。
文摘Forest soil carbon is a major carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystems,and accurate estimation of soil organic carbon(SOC)stocks in forest ecosystems is rather challenging.This study compared the prediction performance of three empirical model approaches namely,regression kriging(RK),multiple stepwise regression(MSR),random forest(RF),and boosted regression trees(BRT)to predict SOC stocks in Northeast China for 1990 and 2015.Furthermore,the spatial variation of SOC stocks and the main controlling environmental factors during the past 25 years were identified.A total of 82(in 1990)and 157(in 2015)topsoil(0–20 cm)samples with 12 environmental factors(soil property,climate,topography and biology)were selected for model construction.Randomly selected80%of the soil sample data were used to train the models and the other 20%data for model verification using mean absolute error,root mean square error,coefficient of determination and Lin's consistency correlation coefficient indices.We found BRT model as the best prediction model and it could explain 67%and 60%spatial variation of SOC stocks,in 1990,and 2015,respectively.Predicted maps of all models in both periods showed similar spatial distribution characteristics,with the lower SOC in northeast and higher SOC in southwest.Mean annual temperature and elevation were the key environmental factors influencing the spatial variation of SOC stock in both periods.SOC stocks were mainly stored under Cambosols,Gleyosols and Isohumosols,accounting for 95.6%(1990)and 95.9%(2015).Overall,SOC stocks increased by 471 Tg C during the past 25 years.Our study found that the BRT model employing common environmental factors was the most robust method for forest topsoil SOC stocks inventories.The spatial resolution of BRT model enabled us to pinpoint in which areas of Northeast China that new forest tree planting would be most effective for enhancing forest C stocks.Overall,our approach is likely to be useful in forestry management and ecological restoration at and beyond the regional scale.
基金supported by the NSF grant AGS-1928883the NASA grants,80NSSC20K1670 and 80MSFC20C0019+2 种基金support from NASA GSFC IRADHIFISFM funds。
文摘Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.
基金the auspices of A Category of Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA20010101)。
文摘The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.
文摘Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.