[Objectives]Integrated land productivity can reflect the comprehensive utilization of land and the overall output level,which is the most basic and commonly used indicator in assessing land use efficiency.This thesis ...[Objectives]Integrated land productivity can reflect the comprehensive utilization of land and the overall output level,which is the most basic and commonly used indicator in assessing land use efficiency.This thesis aims to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of integrated land productivity in Chongqing from 1997 to 2023 in order to assess its land use efficiency.[Methods]This study measured the integrated land productivity of Chongqing Municipality,the only municipality directly under the central government in the western part of China,over the past 26 years(1997-2023)through relevant surveys and statistical data,and analyzed in depth the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing,as well as the functional sub-districts of the"one district and two clusters"and the"one district and two clusters"in Chongqing.It also analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in land productivity in 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing and"one district and two clusters".[Results]The results of the study show that over the past 26 years,the integrated land productivity of Chongqing has shown an annual growth trend,and the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters"has also increased significantly,but the average annual growth rate of the integrated land productivity varies among different regions.From the perspective of spatial differences,there are significant differences in land productivity among the 38 districts and counties of Chongqing and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters",which are mainly due to the different natural conditions,economic development levels and functional positioning of each region.[Conclusions]Based on the results of the study and the actual situation of Chongqing,this paper puts forward the leading measures to improve the integrated land productivity,with a view to providing a reference basis for Chongqing to improve the efficiency of land use and promote the sustainable use of land resources.展开更多
Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last...Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods.展开更多
Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts...Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed T<sub>max</sub> increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> and 0.0169℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup>, while the T<sub>min</sub> was increased by a rate of 0.064℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> and 0.104℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> for Unguja and Pemba, respectively. The temporal distribution of wetness and dryness indices showed a climate shift from near normal to moderate wet during 2005 at Zanzibar Airport, while normal to moderately dry conditions, were observed in Pemba at Matangatuani. The decadal rainfall variability and distributions revealed higher rainfall intensity with an increasing trend and good spatial distribution in D3 from March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The projected results for T<sub>max</sub> during MAM and OND depicted higher values ranging from 1.7℃ - 1.8℃ to 1.9℃ - 2.0℃ and 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in FF compared to NF under both RCPs. Also, higher T<sub>min</sub> values of 1.12℃ - 1.16℃ was projected in FF for MAM and OND under both RCPs. Besides, the rainfall projection generally revealed increased rainfall intensity in the range of 0 - 25 mm for Pemba and declined rainfall in the range of 25 - 50 mm in Unguja under both RCPs in perspectives of both NF and FF. Conclusively the study has shown that the undergoing climate change has posed a significant impact on both rainfall and temperature spatial and temporal distributions in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba), with Unguja being projected to have higher rainfall deficits while increasing rainfall strengths in Pemba. Thus, the study calls for more studies and formulation of effective adaptation, strategies and resilience mechanisms to combat the projected climate change impacts especially in the agricultural sector, water and food security.展开更多
In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of t...In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.展开更多
Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China (NEC) and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over t...Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China (NEC) and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S (conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent) model was ifrst updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods: 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This conifrmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly inlfuenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1&#176;C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These ifndings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.展开更多
The aim of this paper was to research the spatio-temporal changes in total soluble salt content (TS) in a typical arid region of South Xinjiang, China, where the climate is arid and soil salinization happens easily....The aim of this paper was to research the spatio-temporal changes in total soluble salt content (TS) in a typical arid region of South Xinjiang, China, where the climate is arid and soil salinization happens easily. The total soluble salt content was interpreted by measurements made in the horizontal mode with EM38 and EM31. The electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys were made three times with the apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) measurements taken at 3 873 locations in Nov. 2008, 4 807 locations in Apr. 2009 and 6 324 locations in Nov. 2009, respectively. For interpreting the ECa measurements into total soluble salt content, calibtion sites were needed for EM survey of each time, e.g., 66 sites were selected in Nov. 2008 to measure ECa, and soils-core samples were taken by different depth layers of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm at the same time. On every time duplicate samples were taken at five sites to allevaite the local-scale variability, and soil temperatures in different layers through the profiles were also measured. Factors including TS, pH, water content, bulk density were analyzed by lab experiments. ECa calibration equations were obtained by linear regression analysis, which indicated that soil salinity was one primary concern to ECa with a determination coefficient of 0.792 in 0-10 cm layer, 0.711 in 10-20 cm layer and 0.544 in 20-40 cm layer, respectively. The maps of spatial distribution were predicted by Kriging interpolation, which showed that the high soil salinity was located near the drainage canal, which validated the trend effect caused by the irrigation canal and the drainage canal. And by comparing the soil salinity in different layers, the soluble salt accumulated to the top soil surface only in the area where the soil salinization was serious, and in the other areas, the soil salinity trended to increase from the top soil surface to 40 cm depth. Temporal changes showed that the soil salinity in November was higher than that in April, and the soil salinization trended to aggravate, especially in the top soil layer of 0-10 cm.展开更多
The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study.We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season(SGS) over ...The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study.We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season(SGS) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) from 1982 to 2012 and to analyze its relationship with temperature and precipitation.No significant trend was observed in the SGS at the regional scale during the study period(R^2 = 0.03,P = 0.352).However,there were three time periods(1982-1999,1999-2008 and 2008-2012) with identifiable,distinctly different trends.Regions with a significant advancing trend were mainly scattered throughout the humid and semi-humid areas,whereas the regions with a significant delaying trend were mostly distributed throughout the semi-arid areas.Statistical analysis showed that the response of the SGS to climate change varies spatially.The SGS was significantly correlated with the spring temperature and the start of the thermal growth season(STGS) in the relatively humid area.With increasing aridity,theimportance of the spring temperature for the SGS gradually decreased.However,the influences of precipitation and winter temperature on the SGS were complicated across the plateau.展开更多
Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing th...Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing the effects of coal fires, and their environmental impact. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-East of Viet Nam) were analyzed using Landsat time-series data during the 2008-2016 period. Based on land surface temperatures retrieved from Landsat thermal data, underground coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified using the MEDIAN+1.5×IQR(IQR: Interquartile range) threshold technique. The locations of underground coal fires were validated using a coal fire map produced by the field survey data and cross-validated using the daytime ASTER thermal infrared imagery. Based on the fires extracted from seven Landsat thermal imageries, the spatiotemporal changes of underground coal fire areas were analyzed. The results showed that the thermalanomalous zones have been correlated with known coal fires. Cross-validation of coal fires using ASTER TIR data showed a high consistency of 79.3%. The largest coal fire area of 184.6 hectares was detected in 2010, followed by 2014(181.1 hectares) and 2016(178.5 hectares). The smaller coal fire areas were extracted with areas of 133.6 and 152.5 hectares in 2011 and 2009 respectively. Underground coal fires were mainly detected in the northern and southern part, and tend to spread to north-west of the coal field.展开更多
Agrometeorological disasters severely impact agriculture in Heilongjiang Province.Flood is one of the main agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province.The temporal change in flood events in Heilongjiang Prov...Agrometeorological disasters severely impact agriculture in Heilongjiang Province.Flood is one of the main agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province.The temporal change in flood events in Heilongjiang Province from 1986to 2015 was studied using Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet methods,respectively.The results of Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the disaster rates of flood gradually stabilized from 1986 to 2015 with a confidence level of 99%.The Morlet wavelet variance analysis revealed that disaster rates of flood changed periodically at time scales of 3a,7a and 18a in Heilongjiang Province during1986-2015.The dominant period of the variation of flood disaster rate was about 18a over the past 30 years.The flood disaster rates were indicated in a positive phase during the period of 2016-2020 by the fitting curve of Morlet wavelet analysis.The annual average flood disaster indexes of single station,during 1986-2015 years were calculated,according to the precipitation data at 31 stations in Heilongjiang Province and the GIS software was used to analyze the spatial change in flood disasters in Heilongjiang Province from1986-2015.The results demonstrated that the southwest area of Heilongjiang Province was highly hazardous region of flood.The flood indices in the northern part of Songnen Plain and southwest of Heilongjiang Province presented the increment trends.展开更多
A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gra...A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.展开更多
By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following con...By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space: the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator's weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.展开更多
Intense anthropogenic exploitation has altered distribution of forest resources. This change was analyzed using visual interpretation of satellite data of 1979, 1999 and 2009. Field and interactive social surveys were...Intense anthropogenic exploitation has altered distribution of forest resources. This change was analyzed using visual interpretation of satellite data of 1979, 1999 and 2009. Field and interactive social surveys were conducted to identify spatial trends in forest degradation and data were mapped on forest cover and land use maps. Perceptions of villagers were compiled in a pictorial representation to understand changes in forest resource distribution in central Himalaya from 1970 to 2010. For- ested areas were subject to degradation and isolation due to loss of con- necting forest stands. Species like Lantana camara and Eupatorium adenophorum invaded forest landscapes. Intensity of human pressure differed by forest type and elevation. An integrated approach is needed to monitor forest resource distribution and disturbance.展开更多
Detecting changes in surface air temperature in mid-and low-altitude mountainous regions is essential for a comprehensive understanding of warming trend with altitude.We use daily surface air temperature data from 64 ...Detecting changes in surface air temperature in mid-and low-altitude mountainous regions is essential for a comprehensive understanding of warming trend with altitude.We use daily surface air temperature data from 64 meteorological stations in Wuyi Mountains and its adjacent regions to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature change.The results show that Wuyi Mountains have experienced significant warming from 1961 to 2018.The warming trend of the mean temperature is 0.20℃/decade,the maximum temperature is 0.17℃/decade,and the minimum temperature is 0.26℃/decade.In 1961-1990,more than 63%of the stations showed a decreasing trend in annual mean temperature,mainly because the maximum temperature decreased during this period.However,in 1971-2000,1981-2010 and 1991-2018,the maximum,minimum and mean temperatures increased.The fastest increasing trend of mean temperature occurred in the southeastern coastal plains,the quickest increasing trend of maximum temperature occurred in the northwestern mountainous region,and the increase of minimum temperature occurred faster in the southeastern coastal and northwestern mountainous regions than that in the central area.Meanwhile,this study suggests that elevation does not affect warming in the Wuyi Mountains.These results are beneficial for understanding climate change in humid subtropical middle and low mountains.展开更多
Rapidly monitoring regional water quality and the changing trend is of great practical and scientific significance,especially for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China where water resources are relatively scar...Rapidly monitoring regional water quality and the changing trend is of great practical and scientific significance,especially for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China where water resources are relatively scarce and inland water bodies are generally small.The remote sensing data of the GF 1 satellite launched in 2013 have characteristics of high spatial and temporal resolution,which can be used for the dynamic monitoring of the water environment in small lakes and reservoirs.However,the water quality remote sensing monitoring model based on the GF 1 satellite data for lakes and reservoirs in BTH is still lacking because of the considerable differences in the optical characteristics of the lakes and reservoirs.In this paper,the typical reservoirs in BTH-Guanting Reservoir,Yuqiao Reservoir,Panjiakou Reservoir,and Daheiting Reservoir are taken as the study areas.In the atmospheric correction of GF 1-WFV,the relative radiation normalized atmospheric correction was adopted after comparing it with other methods,such as 6 S and FLAASH.In the water clarity retrieval,a water color hue angle based model was proposed and outperformed other available published models,with the R 2 of 0.74 and MRE of 31.7%.The clarity products of the four typical reservoirs in the BTH region in 2013-2019 were produced using the GF 1-WFV data.Based on the products,temporal and spatial changes in clarity were analyzed,and the main influencing factors for each water body were discussed.It was found that the clarity of Guanting,Daheiting,and Panjiakou reservoirs showed an upward trend during this period,while that of Yuqiao Reservoir showed a downward trend.In the influencing factors,the water level of the water bodies can be an important factor related to the water clarity changes in this region.展开更多
Detecting change on the face of the globe using GIS (Geographic Information System) aided by remotely sensed imagery is now becoming an indispensable tool in managing the resources of our planet. The present study wit...Detecting change on the face of the globe using GIS (Geographic Information System) aided by remotely sensed imagery is now becoming an indispensable tool in managing the resources of our planet. The present study with the help of GIS and remote sensing (RS) is also a similar attempt in recording and quantifying change in land use and land cover in district Pishin both in spatial and temporal extents. Satellite imagery was acquired from the USGS official website from three LANDSAT satellites. Theses satellites are LANDSAT 5, LANDSAT7 and LANDSAT 8. The data were acquired for the years 1992, 2003 and 2013. Satellite imagery was processed in ArcMap 10.1 and maximum likelihood supervised image classification was applied in reaching the goal of detecting change. The result of the analysis revealed that built-up area was increased by 5.84%;vegetation was increased by 3.89%;water bodies were increased by 0.05% and bare surfaces were decreased by 9.78%. The decrease in the barren surfaces was attributed to the increase in vegetation and built-up area which replaced the barren land in the study area. This paper also shows the significance and potential of digital change detection methods in managing the resources of our environment and keeping an eye on the land use and land cover of our Earth.展开更多
To solve the problems of rural revitalization performance research,a quantitative model of non-oriented range-wide EBM(Epsilon-Based Measure)-GML(Global-Malmquist)based on VRS(Variable Returns to Scale)conditions incl...To solve the problems of rural revitalization performance research,a quantitative model of non-oriented range-wide EBM(Epsilon-Based Measure)-GML(Global-Malmquist)based on VRS(Variable Returns to Scale)conditions including non-desired outputs is constructed.A comprehensive spatio-temporal heterogeneity research index system of rural revitalization performance is also constructed.Taking the typical rural in Chifeng City as an example,the panel data from 2016-2020 are selected for empirical analysis,the conclusions and countermeasures are suggested as follows:1)In general,the rural revitalization performance of Chifeng City increases significantly during the five-year period,with significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.The overall analysis shows that the overall performance value of rural revitalization in Chifeng City is 0.683 from 2016 to 2020.The highest performance value is 1 and the lowest performance value is 0.389.The performance growth rate increases year by year,with an average annual growth rate of 4.46%.2)From 2016 to 2020,the GML index of rural revitalization performance in Chifeng City is 1.174,showing an increasing trend.Based on the range of change of GML index,Chifeng City can be classified into three types:Continuous improvement,fluctuating improvement and fluctuating decline.3)Niujiayingzi,Guandongche,Zhaidamu,and Qiangangtai rural have the highest degree of technological progress.展开更多
A detailed analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variations over a year period is presented using the data from 8 stations in the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, together with a discussion ...A detailed analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variations over a year period is presented using the data from 8 stations in the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, together with a discussion of the hydrodynamic regimes of the estuary. Spatially, the SSC from Xuliujing downwards to Hangzhou Bay increases almost constantly, and the suspended sediment in the inner estuary shows higher concentration in summer than in winter, while in the outer estuary it shows higher concentration in winter than in summer, and the magnitude is greater in the outer estuary than in the inner estuary, greater in the Hangzhou Bay than in the Yangtze River estuary. The sediments discharged by the Yangtze River into the sea are resuspended by marine dynamics included tidal currents and wind waves. Temporally, the SSC shows a pronounced neap-spring tidal cycle and seasonal variations. Furthermore, through the analysis of dynamic mechanism, it is concluded that wave and tidal current are two predominant factors of sediment resuspension and control the distribution and changes of SSC, in which tidal currents control neap-spring tidal cycles, and wind waves control seasonal variations. The ratio between river discharge and marine dynamics controls spatial distribution of SSC.展开更多
Forest structure changes continuously by natural and anthropogenic effects. Because the level of goods and services provided by forest ecosystems are related to this structure, some attributes have to be controlled wh...Forest structure changes continuously by natural and anthropogenic effects. Because the level of goods and services provided by forest ecosystems are related to this structure, some attributes have to be controlled while they are being managed. In this paper we describe the long-term temporal changes in land area and landscape metrics related to different land uses of a managed forest in Turkey. The study was carried out for the Daday Forest Planning Unit located in the west Black Sea region of northern Turkey. The total area is 16,813 ha and besides wood production, it is managed for erosion control, public health, aesthetics, and recreation. Stand type maps that were constructed in 1970,1989, 1999, and 2010 were used in this analysis. Transition matrixes that illustrate area changes among cover types and temporal changes on some landscape metrics were obtained using Geographic Information Systems. Stands were separated into small patches, and thus the number of patches increased nearly two-fold between 1970 and 2010. The total forest edge increased and through the associated fragmentation, the amount of core forest area decreased at the landscape scale. Landscape metrics were applied to digitized versions of historical maps to assess how forest area changed. Human use of the land has changed, forest management practices have evolved, and these along with natural forest growth have contributed to interesting changes in landscape character.展开更多
Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex a...Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties.展开更多
Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to ...Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.展开更多
文摘[Objectives]Integrated land productivity can reflect the comprehensive utilization of land and the overall output level,which is the most basic and commonly used indicator in assessing land use efficiency.This thesis aims to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of integrated land productivity in Chongqing from 1997 to 2023 in order to assess its land use efficiency.[Methods]This study measured the integrated land productivity of Chongqing Municipality,the only municipality directly under the central government in the western part of China,over the past 26 years(1997-2023)through relevant surveys and statistical data,and analyzed in depth the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing,as well as the functional sub-districts of the"one district and two clusters"and the"one district and two clusters"in Chongqing.It also analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in land productivity in 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing and"one district and two clusters".[Results]The results of the study show that over the past 26 years,the integrated land productivity of Chongqing has shown an annual growth trend,and the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters"has also increased significantly,but the average annual growth rate of the integrated land productivity varies among different regions.From the perspective of spatial differences,there are significant differences in land productivity among the 38 districts and counties of Chongqing and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters",which are mainly due to the different natural conditions,economic development levels and functional positioning of each region.[Conclusions]Based on the results of the study and the actual situation of Chongqing,this paper puts forward the leading measures to improve the integrated land productivity,with a view to providing a reference basis for Chongqing to improve the efficiency of land use and promote the sustainable use of land resources.
文摘Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods.
文摘Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub> for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed T<sub>max</sub> increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> and 0.0169℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup>, while the T<sub>min</sub> was increased by a rate of 0.064℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> and 0.104℃ yr<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup> for Unguja and Pemba, respectively. The temporal distribution of wetness and dryness indices showed a climate shift from near normal to moderate wet during 2005 at Zanzibar Airport, while normal to moderately dry conditions, were observed in Pemba at Matangatuani. The decadal rainfall variability and distributions revealed higher rainfall intensity with an increasing trend and good spatial distribution in D3 from March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The projected results for T<sub>max</sub> during MAM and OND depicted higher values ranging from 1.7℃ - 1.8℃ to 1.9℃ - 2.0℃ and 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in FF compared to NF under both RCPs. Also, higher T<sub>min</sub> values of 1.12℃ - 1.16℃ was projected in FF for MAM and OND under both RCPs. Besides, the rainfall projection generally revealed increased rainfall intensity in the range of 0 - 25 mm for Pemba and declined rainfall in the range of 25 - 50 mm in Unguja under both RCPs in perspectives of both NF and FF. Conclusively the study has shown that the undergoing climate change has posed a significant impact on both rainfall and temperature spatial and temporal distributions in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba), with Unguja being projected to have higher rainfall deficits while increasing rainfall strengths in Pemba. Thus, the study calls for more studies and formulation of effective adaptation, strategies and resilience mechanisms to combat the projected climate change impacts especially in the agricultural sector, water and food security.
文摘In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.
基金supported and financed by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2010CB951504)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41201089 and 41271112)
文摘Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China (NEC) and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S (conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent) model was ifrst updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods: 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This conifrmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly inlfuenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1&#176;C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These ifndings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.
基金supported by the Special Fund of Industrial (Agriculture) Research for Public Welfare of China(200903001)the Special Fund of Industrial (Marine) Research for Public Welfare of China (201105020-3 and 201105020-4)+2 种基金the Science and Technology Support Program of Jiangsu Province, China (BE2010313)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-359)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41171181)
文摘The aim of this paper was to research the spatio-temporal changes in total soluble salt content (TS) in a typical arid region of South Xinjiang, China, where the climate is arid and soil salinization happens easily. The total soluble salt content was interpreted by measurements made in the horizontal mode with EM38 and EM31. The electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys were made three times with the apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) measurements taken at 3 873 locations in Nov. 2008, 4 807 locations in Apr. 2009 and 6 324 locations in Nov. 2009, respectively. For interpreting the ECa measurements into total soluble salt content, calibtion sites were needed for EM survey of each time, e.g., 66 sites were selected in Nov. 2008 to measure ECa, and soils-core samples were taken by different depth layers of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm at the same time. On every time duplicate samples were taken at five sites to allevaite the local-scale variability, and soil temperatures in different layers through the profiles were also measured. Factors including TS, pH, water content, bulk density were analyzed by lab experiments. ECa calibration equations were obtained by linear regression analysis, which indicated that soil salinity was one primary concern to ECa with a determination coefficient of 0.792 in 0-10 cm layer, 0.711 in 10-20 cm layer and 0.544 in 20-40 cm layer, respectively. The maps of spatial distribution were predicted by Kriging interpolation, which showed that the high soil salinity was located near the drainage canal, which validated the trend effect caused by the irrigation canal and the drainage canal. And by comparing the soil salinity in different layers, the soluble salt accumulated to the top soil surface only in the area where the soil salinization was serious, and in the other areas, the soil salinity trended to increase from the top soil surface to 40 cm depth. Temporal changes showed that the soil salinity in November was higher than that in April, and the soil salinization trended to aggravate, especially in the top soil layer of 0-10 cm.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB03030500)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41201095,41171080,41371120)
文摘The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study.We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season(SGS) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) from 1982 to 2012 and to analyze its relationship with temperature and precipitation.No significant trend was observed in the SGS at the regional scale during the study period(R^2 = 0.03,P = 0.352).However,there were three time periods(1982-1999,1999-2008 and 2008-2012) with identifiable,distinctly different trends.Regions with a significant advancing trend were mainly scattered throughout the humid and semi-humid areas,whereas the regions with a significant delaying trend were mostly distributed throughout the semi-arid areas.Statistical analysis showed that the response of the SGS to climate change varies spatially.The SGS was significantly correlated with the spring temperature and the start of the thermal growth season(STGS) in the relatively humid area.With increasing aridity,theimportance of the spring temperature for the SGS gradually decreased.However,the influences of precipitation and winter temperature on the SGS were complicated across the plateau.
基金funded by the Ministry-level Scientific and Technological Key Programs of Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Viet Nam "Application of thermal infrared remote sensing and GIS for mapping underground coal fires in Quang Ninh coal basin" (Grant No. TNMT.2017.08.06)
文摘Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing the effects of coal fires, and their environmental impact. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-East of Viet Nam) were analyzed using Landsat time-series data during the 2008-2016 period. Based on land surface temperatures retrieved from Landsat thermal data, underground coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified using the MEDIAN+1.5×IQR(IQR: Interquartile range) threshold technique. The locations of underground coal fires were validated using a coal fire map produced by the field survey data and cross-validated using the daytime ASTER thermal infrared imagery. Based on the fires extracted from seven Landsat thermal imageries, the spatiotemporal changes of underground coal fire areas were analyzed. The results showed that the thermalanomalous zones have been correlated with known coal fires. Cross-validation of coal fires using ASTER TIR data showed a high consistency of 79.3%. The largest coal fire area of 184.6 hectares was detected in 2010, followed by 2014(181.1 hectares) and 2016(178.5 hectares). The smaller coal fire areas were extracted with areas of 133.6 and 152.5 hectares in 2011 and 2009 respectively. Underground coal fires were mainly detected in the northern and southern part, and tend to spread to north-west of the coal field.
基金Supported by China Clean Development Mechanism Project(2014101)。
文摘Agrometeorological disasters severely impact agriculture in Heilongjiang Province.Flood is one of the main agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province.The temporal change in flood events in Heilongjiang Province from 1986to 2015 was studied using Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet methods,respectively.The results of Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the disaster rates of flood gradually stabilized from 1986 to 2015 with a confidence level of 99%.The Morlet wavelet variance analysis revealed that disaster rates of flood changed periodically at time scales of 3a,7a and 18a in Heilongjiang Province during1986-2015.The dominant period of the variation of flood disaster rate was about 18a over the past 30 years.The flood disaster rates were indicated in a positive phase during the period of 2016-2020 by the fitting curve of Morlet wavelet analysis.The annual average flood disaster indexes of single station,during 1986-2015 years were calculated,according to the precipitation data at 31 stations in Heilongjiang Province and the GIS software was used to analyze the spatial change in flood disasters in Heilongjiang Province from1986-2015.The results demonstrated that the southwest area of Heilongjiang Province was highly hazardous region of flood.The flood indices in the northern part of Songnen Plain and southwest of Heilongjiang Province presented the increment trends.
基金Supported by National Scientific and Technological Supporting Project(2006BAD20B05)~~
文摘A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.
文摘By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space: the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator's weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.
文摘Intense anthropogenic exploitation has altered distribution of forest resources. This change was analyzed using visual interpretation of satellite data of 1979, 1999 and 2009. Field and interactive social surveys were conducted to identify spatial trends in forest degradation and data were mapped on forest cover and land use maps. Perceptions of villagers were compiled in a pictorial representation to understand changes in forest resource distribution in central Himalaya from 1970 to 2010. For- ested areas were subject to degradation and isolation due to loss of con- necting forest stands. Species like Lantana camara and Eupatorium adenophorum invaded forest landscapes. Intensity of human pressure differed by forest type and elevation. An integrated approach is needed to monitor forest resource distribution and disturbance.
基金supported by the Projects for National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22A20554)the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2023J01285)+1 种基金the Public Welfare Scientific Institutions of Fujian Province(2022R1002005)the Scientific Project from Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2022Y0007).
文摘Detecting changes in surface air temperature in mid-and low-altitude mountainous regions is essential for a comprehensive understanding of warming trend with altitude.We use daily surface air temperature data from 64 meteorological stations in Wuyi Mountains and its adjacent regions to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature change.The results show that Wuyi Mountains have experienced significant warming from 1961 to 2018.The warming trend of the mean temperature is 0.20℃/decade,the maximum temperature is 0.17℃/decade,and the minimum temperature is 0.26℃/decade.In 1961-1990,more than 63%of the stations showed a decreasing trend in annual mean temperature,mainly because the maximum temperature decreased during this period.However,in 1971-2000,1981-2010 and 1991-2018,the maximum,minimum and mean temperatures increased.The fastest increasing trend of mean temperature occurred in the southeastern coastal plains,the quickest increasing trend of maximum temperature occurred in the northwestern mountainous region,and the increase of minimum temperature occurred faster in the southeastern coastal and northwestern mountainous regions than that in the central area.Meanwhile,this study suggests that elevation does not affect warming in the Wuyi Mountains.These results are beneficial for understanding climate change in humid subtropical middle and low mountains.
基金Supported by the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.313GJHZ2022085 FN)the Dragon 5 Cooperation(No.59193)。
文摘Rapidly monitoring regional water quality and the changing trend is of great practical and scientific significance,especially for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China where water resources are relatively scarce and inland water bodies are generally small.The remote sensing data of the GF 1 satellite launched in 2013 have characteristics of high spatial and temporal resolution,which can be used for the dynamic monitoring of the water environment in small lakes and reservoirs.However,the water quality remote sensing monitoring model based on the GF 1 satellite data for lakes and reservoirs in BTH is still lacking because of the considerable differences in the optical characteristics of the lakes and reservoirs.In this paper,the typical reservoirs in BTH-Guanting Reservoir,Yuqiao Reservoir,Panjiakou Reservoir,and Daheiting Reservoir are taken as the study areas.In the atmospheric correction of GF 1-WFV,the relative radiation normalized atmospheric correction was adopted after comparing it with other methods,such as 6 S and FLAASH.In the water clarity retrieval,a water color hue angle based model was proposed and outperformed other available published models,with the R 2 of 0.74 and MRE of 31.7%.The clarity products of the four typical reservoirs in the BTH region in 2013-2019 were produced using the GF 1-WFV data.Based on the products,temporal and spatial changes in clarity were analyzed,and the main influencing factors for each water body were discussed.It was found that the clarity of Guanting,Daheiting,and Panjiakou reservoirs showed an upward trend during this period,while that of Yuqiao Reservoir showed a downward trend.In the influencing factors,the water level of the water bodies can be an important factor related to the water clarity changes in this region.
文摘Detecting change on the face of the globe using GIS (Geographic Information System) aided by remotely sensed imagery is now becoming an indispensable tool in managing the resources of our planet. The present study with the help of GIS and remote sensing (RS) is also a similar attempt in recording and quantifying change in land use and land cover in district Pishin both in spatial and temporal extents. Satellite imagery was acquired from the USGS official website from three LANDSAT satellites. Theses satellites are LANDSAT 5, LANDSAT7 and LANDSAT 8. The data were acquired for the years 1992, 2003 and 2013. Satellite imagery was processed in ArcMap 10.1 and maximum likelihood supervised image classification was applied in reaching the goal of detecting change. The result of the analysis revealed that built-up area was increased by 5.84%;vegetation was increased by 3.89%;water bodies were increased by 0.05% and bare surfaces were decreased by 9.78%. The decrease in the barren surfaces was attributed to the increase in vegetation and built-up area which replaced the barren land in the study area. This paper also shows the significance and potential of digital change detection methods in managing the resources of our environment and keeping an eye on the land use and land cover of our Earth.
基金Research on Local Knowledge Mapping and Planning Application Strategies of Traditional Rural in Qinba Mountains(No.19YJAZH107)Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund,Ministry of Education,China.
文摘To solve the problems of rural revitalization performance research,a quantitative model of non-oriented range-wide EBM(Epsilon-Based Measure)-GML(Global-Malmquist)based on VRS(Variable Returns to Scale)conditions including non-desired outputs is constructed.A comprehensive spatio-temporal heterogeneity research index system of rural revitalization performance is also constructed.Taking the typical rural in Chifeng City as an example,the panel data from 2016-2020 are selected for empirical analysis,the conclusions and countermeasures are suggested as follows:1)In general,the rural revitalization performance of Chifeng City increases significantly during the five-year period,with significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.The overall analysis shows that the overall performance value of rural revitalization in Chifeng City is 0.683 from 2016 to 2020.The highest performance value is 1 and the lowest performance value is 0.389.The performance growth rate increases year by year,with an average annual growth rate of 4.46%.2)From 2016 to 2020,the GML index of rural revitalization performance in Chifeng City is 1.174,showing an increasing trend.Based on the range of change of GML index,Chifeng City can be classified into three types:Continuous improvement,fluctuating improvement and fluctuating decline.3)Niujiayingzi,Guandongche,Zhaidamu,and Qiangangtai rural have the highest degree of technological progress.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China.No.40276027No.40231010Shanghai Priority Academic Discipline
文摘A detailed analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) variations over a year period is presented using the data from 8 stations in the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, together with a discussion of the hydrodynamic regimes of the estuary. Spatially, the SSC from Xuliujing downwards to Hangzhou Bay increases almost constantly, and the suspended sediment in the inner estuary shows higher concentration in summer than in winter, while in the outer estuary it shows higher concentration in winter than in summer, and the magnitude is greater in the outer estuary than in the inner estuary, greater in the Hangzhou Bay than in the Yangtze River estuary. The sediments discharged by the Yangtze River into the sea are resuspended by marine dynamics included tidal currents and wind waves. Temporally, the SSC shows a pronounced neap-spring tidal cycle and seasonal variations. Furthermore, through the analysis of dynamic mechanism, it is concluded that wave and tidal current are two predominant factors of sediment resuspension and control the distribution and changes of SSC, in which tidal currents control neap-spring tidal cycles, and wind waves control seasonal variations. The ratio between river discharge and marine dynamics controls spatial distribution of SSC.
文摘Forest structure changes continuously by natural and anthropogenic effects. Because the level of goods and services provided by forest ecosystems are related to this structure, some attributes have to be controlled while they are being managed. In this paper we describe the long-term temporal changes in land area and landscape metrics related to different land uses of a managed forest in Turkey. The study was carried out for the Daday Forest Planning Unit located in the west Black Sea region of northern Turkey. The total area is 16,813 ha and besides wood production, it is managed for erosion control, public health, aesthetics, and recreation. Stand type maps that were constructed in 1970,1989, 1999, and 2010 were used in this analysis. Transition matrixes that illustrate area changes among cover types and temporal changes on some landscape metrics were obtained using Geographic Information Systems. Stands were separated into small patches, and thus the number of patches increased nearly two-fold between 1970 and 2010. The total forest edge increased and through the associated fragmentation, the amount of core forest area decreased at the landscape scale. Landscape metrics were applied to digitized versions of historical maps to assess how forest area changed. Human use of the land has changed, forest management practices have evolved, and these along with natural forest growth have contributed to interesting changes in landscape character.
文摘Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties.
文摘Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.