The charging load of electric vehicles(EVs)has a strong spatiotemporal randomness.Predicting the dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of the charging load of EVs is of great significance for the grid to cope with the a...The charging load of electric vehicles(EVs)has a strong spatiotemporal randomness.Predicting the dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of the charging load of EVs is of great significance for the grid to cope with the access of large-scale EVs.Existing studies lack a prediction model that can accurately describe the dual dynamic changes of EVs charging the load time and space.Therefore,a spatial-temporal dynamic load forecasting model,dilated causal convolution-2D neural network(DCC-2D),is proposed.First,a hole factor is added to the time dimension of the three-dimensional convolutional convolution kernel to form a two-dimensional hole convolution layer so that the model can learn the spatial dimension information.The entire network is then formed by stacking the layers,ensuring that the network can accept long-term historical input,enabling the model to learn time dimension information.The model is simulated with the actual data of the charging pile load in a certain area and compared with the ConvLSTM model.The results prove the validity of the proposed prediction model.展开更多
文摘针对传统充电站负荷预测方法只能实现对单一站点预测的问题,提出一种基于图时空神经网络(Graph Spatiotemporal Neural Network,GSTNN)模型的多充电站负荷协同预测方法。定义时空信息图,描述充电站负荷之间的时空关系;构建时空特征提取网络,分别利用图卷积神经网络和门控序列卷积网络提取信息图的空间和时间维度信息,并使用长短期记忆网络(Long Short Term Memory Networks,LSTM)挖掘影响负荷预测的外部特征信息;融合提取的所有特征,进行负荷预测。算例结果表明,基于GSTNN模型的方法能充分考虑时空特征和外部特征的影响,协同多个充电站的负荷数据进行预测,并同时输出各充电站的预测结果,有效提高预测准确度,有助于电网稳定运行。
文摘针对目前城市电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)充电站存在盲目建设、规划不合理导致的部分充电站利用率低、用户充电满意度低等问题,同时为适应“双碳”目标下发展大规模EV的充电站规划需求,提出一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟和回声状态网络(echo state network,ESN)拟合的城市EV时空充电负荷预测方法,进一步开展EV充电站规划研究。首先考虑城市交通路网结构和区域主要功能,将待规划区域进行网格划分并作为待建充电站备选位置;利用蒙特卡洛方法对各类EV进行多种模式的出行链模拟,获取各网格区域内的EV充电负荷数据集;为拟合各网格内EV充电负荷的多样化分布特征,建立基于回声状态网络ESN学习算法的EV时空充电负荷预测模型,实现一定EV保有量下待规划区内EV时空充电负荷的预测。进一步考虑待规划网格区域内的最大充电预测负荷等约束条件﹑以充电站的建设和运维成本、EV用户充电出行成本以及配网损耗的综合成本最小为目标,建立EV充电站的规划模型,利用粒子群算法进行模型求解得到待规划区的充电站建设位置、数量及容量;最后以某城区EV充电负荷预测及充电站规划为例进行计算,验证了所提方法及模型的有效性。
基金Supported by the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province(20A021)National Natural Science Foundation of China(51777015).
文摘The charging load of electric vehicles(EVs)has a strong spatiotemporal randomness.Predicting the dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of the charging load of EVs is of great significance for the grid to cope with the access of large-scale EVs.Existing studies lack a prediction model that can accurately describe the dual dynamic changes of EVs charging the load time and space.Therefore,a spatial-temporal dynamic load forecasting model,dilated causal convolution-2D neural network(DCC-2D),is proposed.First,a hole factor is added to the time dimension of the three-dimensional convolutional convolution kernel to form a two-dimensional hole convolution layer so that the model can learn the spatial dimension information.The entire network is then formed by stacking the layers,ensuring that the network can accept long-term historical input,enabling the model to learn time dimension information.The model is simulated with the actual data of the charging pile load in a certain area and compared with the ConvLSTM model.The results prove the validity of the proposed prediction model.