Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

Impact of the carbon market on investment benefits of power-grid enterprises in China: a system dynamics analysis

The power grid,as the hub connecting the power supply and consumption sides,plays an important role in achieving carbon neutrality in China.In emerging carbon markets,assessing the investment benefits of power-grid enterprises is essential.Thus,studying the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of powergrid enterprises is key to ensuring their efficient operation.Notably,few studies have examined the interaction between the carbon and electricity markets using system dynamics models,highlighting a research gap in this area.This study investigates the impact of the carbon market on the investment of power-grid enterprises using a novel evaluation system based on a system dynamics model that considers carbon-emissions from an established carbon-emission accounting model.First,an index system for benefit evaluation was constructed from six aspects:financing ability,economic benefit,reliability,social responsibility,user satisfaction,and carbon-emissions.A system dynamics model was then developed to reflect the causal feedback relationship between the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.The simulation results of a provincial power-grid enterprise analyze comprehensive investment evaluation benefits over a 10-year period and the impact of carbon emissions on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.This study provides guidelines for the benign development of power-grid enterprises within the context of the carbon market.

Dynamic Analysis of A Deepwater Drilling Riser with A New Hang-off System

The safety of risers in hang-off states is a vital challenge in offshore oil and gas engineering.A new hang-off system installed on top of risers is proposed for improving the security of risers.This approach leads to a challenging problem:coupling the dynamics of risers with a new hang-off system combined with multiple structures and complex constraints.To accurately analyze the dynamic responses of the coupled system,a coupled dynamic model is established based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam-column theory and penalty function method.A comprehensive analysis method is proposed for coupled dynamic analysis by combining the finite element method and the Newmarkβmethod.An analysis program is also developed in MATLAB for dynamic simulation.The simulation results show that the dynamic performances of the risers at the top part are significantly improved by the new hang-off system,especially the novel design,which includes the centralizer and articulation joint.The bending moment and lateral deformation of the risers at the top part decrease,while the hang-off joint experiences a great bending moment at the bottom of the lateral restraint area which requires particular attention in design and application.The platform navigation speed range under the safety limits of risers expands with the new hang-off system in use.

Review on dynamic analysis of road pavements under moving vehicles and plane strain conditions

This paper reviews works on the dynamic analysis of flexible and rigid pavements under moving vehicles on the basis of continuum-based plane strain models and linear theories.The purpose of this review is to provide in-formation about the existing works on the subject,critically discuss them and make suggestions for further research.The reviewed papers are presented on the basis of the various models for pavement-vehicle systems and the various methods for dynamically analyzing these systems.Flexible pavements are modeled by a homogeneous or layered half-plane with isotropic or anisotropic and linear elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic material behavior.Rigid pavements are modeled by a beam or plate on a homogeneous or layered half-plane with material properties like the ones for flexible pavements.The vehicles are modeled as concentrated or distributed over a finite area loads moving with constant or time dependent speed.The above pavement-vehicle models are dynamically analyzed by analytical,analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods working in the time or frequency domain.Representative examples are presented to illustrate the models and methods of analysis,demonstrate their merits and assess the effects of the various parameters on pavement response.The paper closes with con-clusions and suggestions for further research in the area.The significance of this research effort has to do with the presentation of the existing literature on the subject in a critical and easy to understand way with the aid of representative examples and the identification of new research areas.

Dynamical Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics Analysisof a Coaxial Dual-Rotor System

The dual-rotor structure serves as the primary source of vibration in aero-engines. Understanding itsdynamical model and analyzing dynamic characteristics, such as critical speed and unbalanced response, arecrucial for rotor system dynamics. Previous work introduced a coaxial dual-rotor-support scheme for aeroengines,and a physical model featuring a high-speed flexible inner rotor with a substantial length-to-diameter ratiowas designed. Then a finite element (FE) dynamic model based on the Timoshenko beam elements and rigid bodykinematics of the dual-rotor system is modeled, with the Newmark method and Newton–Raphson method used forthe numerical calculation to study the dynamic characteristics of the system. Three different simulation models,including beam-based FE (1D) model, solid-based FE (3D) model, and transfer matrix model, were designed tostudy the characteristics of mode and the critical speed characteristic of the dual-rotor system. The unbalancedresponse of the dual-rotor system was analyzed to study the influence of mass unbalance on the rotor system. Theeffect of different disk unbalance phases and different speed ratios on the dynamic characteristics of the dual-rotorsystem was investigated in detail. The experimental result shows that the beam-based FE model is effective andsuitable for studying the dual-rotor system.

Optimization and Performance Analysis of Intelligent Video AI Dynamic

In today’s information age,video data,as an important carrier of information,is growing explosively in terms of production volume.The quick and accurate extraction of useful information from massive video data has become a focus of research in the field of computer vision.AI dynamic recognition technology has become one of the key technologies to address this issue due to its powerful data processing capabilities and intelligent recognition functions.Based on this,this paper first elaborates on the development of intelligent video AI dynamic recognition technology,then proposes several optimization strategies for intelligent video AI dynamic recognition technology,and finally analyzes the performance of intelligent video AI dynamic recognition technology for reference.

Dynamic Analysis of Customer Demand Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number in Product Planning

To address the fuzziness and variability in determining customer demand importance,a dynamic analysis method based on intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is proposed.First,selected customers use intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to represent the importance of each demand.Then,the preference information is aggregated using customer weights and time period weights through the intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted average operator,yielding a dynamic vector of the subjective importance of the demand index.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated through an application example of a vibrating sorting screen.

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use in the Bouba Ndjidda National Park and Its Adjacent Zone (North Cameroun)

We evaluated the dynamics of land use in the Bouba Ndjidda National Park (BNNP) and adjacent areas, in northern Cameroon. Using a maximum likelihood supervised classification of satellite images from 1990 to 2016, coupled with field and a socio-economic survey, we performed a robust land-use classification. Between 1990 and 2016, the area included eight classes of land use, with the largest in 1990 being the woody savannah (42.9%) followed by the gallery forest (20.2%) and the clear forest (16.3%). Between 1990 and 1999, the gallery forest lost 64.8% of its area mostly to the benefit of woody savannahs. Between 1999 and 2016, the largest loss of area was that of the clear forest, which decreased generally by 43.2% in favor of woody savannah. Rates of increase of crop field areas were 59.6% and 78.8% respectively for the periods of 1990 to 1999 and 1999 to 2016 to the detriment of woody savannahs. We attribute the changes in land use observed mainly to the increasing human population and associated agriculture, overgrazing, fuelwood harvesting and bush fires. The exploitation of non-timber forest products and climatic factors may also have changed the vegetation cover. We recommend the implementation of farming techniques with low impact on the environment such as agroforestry.

Design and dynamic analysis of a scissors hoop-rib truss deployable antenna mechanism

As the support mechanism of space-borne antennas,space deployable antenna mechanism belongs to complex multi-closed-loop coupling mechanism,configuration design and dynamic analysis are more difficult than general parallel mechanism.In this paper,an unequal-length scissors mechanism(ULSM)is proposed by changing the position of the internal rotational joint through a basic scissors mechanism.A scissors hoop-rib truss deployable antenna mechanism(SHRTDAM)is constructed by replacing the parabolic rib with the ULSM.Kinematic analysis of SHRTDAM is conducted,and the degree of freedom(DOF)of the whole antenna mechanism is analyzed based on screw theory,the result showed that it has only one DOF.Velocity and acceleration characteristics of SHRTDAM are obtained by the screw derivative and rotation transformation.Based on Lagrange equation,dynamic model of this mechanism is established,the torque required to drive the mechanism is simulated and verified by Adams and MATLAB software.In addition,a ground experiment prototype of 1.5-m diameter was fabricated and a deployment test is conducted,which demonstrated the mobility and deployment performance of the whole mechanism.The mechanism proposed in this paper can provide a good reference for the design and analysis of large aperture space deployable antennas.

Nonlinear dynamic response and stability analysis of the stapes reconstruction in human middle ear

Stapes fracture causes hearing loss and instability in the middle ear hearing system(MEHS). The material used in the stapes reconstruction restores stapes, but the effects of the nonlinear material parameters on the stability of the MEHS are still unknown. To address this challenge, the nonlinear dynamic response and stability of the stapes reconstruction are investigated using a multi-degree-of-freedom mechanical model. The material parameters of the implant are tentatively determined by analyzing the natural frequencies of the undamped system. The dynamical properties of the MEHS are characterized under different external excitations. The approximate solution of the MEHS near the resonant frequency is derived through the multiple-time-scale method(MTSM). The results show that the nonlinear stiffness of the material has little influence on the MEHS in the healthy state, but it causes resonant phenomena between the ossicle and the implant in the pathological state.

Dynamic analysis of bio-inspired helicoid laminated composite plates resting on Pasternak foundation excited by explosive loading

This paper uses isogeometric analysis(IGA)based on higher-order shear deformation theory(HSDT)to study the dynamic response of bio-inspired helicoid laminated composite(B-iHLC)plates resting on Pasternak foundation(PF)excited by explosive loading.IGA takes advantage of non-uniform rational Bspline(NURBS)basic functions to exactly represent the structure geometry models and the attainment of higher-order approximation conditions.This method also ensures a C1 continuous function in the analysis of transverse shear deformation via HSDT.Furthermore,IGA eliminates the requirement for correction factors and delivers accurate results.Pasternak foundation with two stiffness parameters:springer stiffness(k_(1))and shear stiffness(k_(2)).The derivation of the governing equations is based on Hamilton's principle.The proposed method is validated through numerical examples.A comprehensive analysis of the impact of geometrical parameters,material properties,boundary conditions(BCs),and foundation stiffness on dynamic response of B-i HLC plates is carried out.

Linear analysis of the dynamic response of a riser subject to internal solitary waves

The flow field induced by internal solitary waves(ISWs)is peculiar wherein water motion occurs in the whole water depth,and the strong shear near the pycnocline can be generated due to the opposite flow direction between the upper and lower layers,which is a potential threat to marine risers.In this paper,the flow field of ISWs is obtained with the Korteweg-de Vries(Kd V)equation for a two-layer fluid system.Then,a linear analysis is performed for the dynamic response of a riser with its two ends simply supported under the action of ISWs.The explicit expressions of the deflection and the moment of the riser are deduced based on the modal superposition method.The applicable conditions of the theoretical expressions are discussed.Through comparisons with the finite element simulations for nonlinear dynamic responses,it is proved that the theoretical expressions can roughly reveal the nonlinear dynamic response of risers under ISWs when the approximation for the linear analysis is relaxed to some extent.

Dynamic Analysis of A Deep-Water Compliant Vertical Access Riser with A Variable Length During Installation

Compliant vertical access risers(CVAR)have broad application prospects in deep-water oil and gas transportation.However,the mechanical behaviors of the CVAR with a variable length during installation remains unclear.To address this issue,based on the flexible segment method,a model of CVAR with a variable length during installation is established in this study,which is verified by the comparison with commercial software.Then,the mechanical behaviors of CVAR during installation are investigated.The results reveal that the CVAR configuration is significantly affected by the buoyancy blocks.The streamwise displacement of CVAR increases with the increase of current velocity.When the BOP weight is insuffcient,obvious upbending is observed in the lower region and transition region,leading to local compression.When the platform moves in the opposite direction to the current,the maximum stress is larger than that of the scenario when the platform moves in the same direction as the current.

Comparison Study and Forensic Analysis between Experiment and Coupled Dynamics Simulation for Submerged Floating Tunnel Segment with Free Ends under Wave Excitations

This paper presents dynamic-behavior comparisons and related forensic analyses of a submerged floating tunnel(SFT)between numerical simulation and physical experiment under regular and irregular waves.The experiments are conducted in the 3Dwave tank with 1:33.3 scale,and the corresponding coupled time-domain simulation tool is devised for comparison.The entire SFT systemconsists of a long concrete tunnel and 12 tubular aluminummooring lines.Two numerical simulation models,the Cummins equation with 3D potential theory including second-order wave-body interaction effects and the much simpler Morison-equation-based formula with the lumped-massbased line model,are designed and compared.Forensic analyses for mooring-line adjustments in the simulation are carried out in view of the best representation of the physical system.After that,the measured pre-tension distribution and systemstiffness of twelvemooring lines arewell reproduced in the numericalmodel.Subsequently,the dynamic responses and mooring tensions of the SFT are compared under regular and irregular waves.The measured and simulated results coincide reasonably well for both regular-and irregular-wave conditions.

Dynamic response analysis of liquefiable ground due to sinusoidal waves of different frequencies of shield construction

Vibration induced by shield construction can lead to liquefaction of saturated sand.Based on FLAC3D software,a numerical model of tunnel excavation is established and sinusoidal velocity loads with different frequencies are applied to the excavation face.The pattern of the excess pore pressure ratio with frequency,as well as the dynamic response of soil mass under different frequency loads before excavation,is analyzed.When the velocity sinusoidal wave acts on the excavation surface of the shield tunnel with a single sand layer,soil liquefaction occurs.However,the ranges and locations of soil liquefaction are different at different frequencies,which proves that the vibration frequency influences the liquefaction location of the stratum.For sand-clay composite strata with liquefiable layers,the influence of frequency on the liquefaction range is different from that of a single stratum.In the frequency range of 5-30 Hz,the liquefaction area and surface subsidence decrease with an increase in vibration frequency.The research results in this study can be used as a reference in engineering practice for tunneling liquefiable strata with a shield tunneling machine.

Dynamic Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis for an MEA-Based CO_(2) Capture Absorber

The absorber is the key unit in the post-combustion monoethanolamine(MEA)-based carbon dioxide(CO_(2))capture process.A rate-based dynamic model for the absorber is developed and validated using steady-state experimental data reported in open literature.Sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to important model parameters associated with the reaction,mass transport and phy-sical property relationships.Then,a singular value decomposition(SVD)-based subspace parameter estimation method is proposed to improve the model accu-racy.Finally,dynamic simulations are carried out to investigate the effects of the feed rate of lean MEA solution and the flue inlet conditions.Simulation results indicate that the established dynamic model can reasonably reflect the physical behavior of the absorber.Some new insights are gained from the simulation results.

Mechanical analysis of the femoral neck dynamic intersection system with different nail angles and clinical applications

BACKGROUND The femoral neck dynamic intersection system(FNS)is mechanically more stable than other internal fixation techniques.Current studies have confirmed that the structural design of FNS has good biomechanical properties in European and American populations.However,whether the suitability of the FNS's 130°main nail angle design for Asian populations has been thoroughly investigated remains unclear.AIM To compare the biomechanical stability differences among different main nail angles of the FNS in the treatment of femoral neck fractures in Asian populations.METHODS Computed tomography data of the femur of healthy adult male volunteers were imported into Mimics software to create a three-dimensional model of the femur.The model was adapted to the curve using Geomagic software and imported into Solidworks software to construct the Pauwels I femoral neck fracture model and design the FNS internal fixation model using different main nail angles.Afterward,the models were assembled with the FNS fracture model and meshed using the preprocessing Hypermesh software.Subsequently,they were imported into Abaqus software to analyze and evaluate the biomechanical effects of different angles of the FNS main nail on the treatment of femoral neck fractures.RESULTS The peak displacement of the proximal femur under different angles of FNS fixation under stress was 7.446 millimeters in the 120°group and 7.416 millimeters in the 125°group;in the 130°,135°,and 140°FNS fixation groups,the peak displacement was 7.324 millimeters,8.138 millimeters,and 8.246 millimeters,respectively.In the 120°and 125°FNS fixation groups,the maximum stresses were concentrated at the main nail and the anti-rotation screw,which intersected the fracture line of the femur neck,resulting in peak stresses of 200.7 MPa and 138.8 MPa,respectively.Peak stresses of 208.8 MPa,219.8 MPa,and 239.3 MPa were observed on the angular locking plate distal to the locking screw in the 130°,135°,and 140°fixation groups.CONCLUSION FNS has significant stress distribution properties,a minimal proximal femoral displacement,and an optimal stability for treating femoral neck fractures in Asian populations when performed with a 130°main nail angle.

Time Series Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Dynamic Harmonic Regression Models

Rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus and its variants, especially in metropolitan areas around the world, became a major health public concern. The tendency of COVID-19 pandemic and statistical modelling represents an urgent challenge in the United States for which there are few solutions. In this paper, we demonstrate combining Fourier terms for capturing seasonality with ARIMA errors and other dynamics in the data. Therefore, we have analyzed 156 weeks COVID-19 dataset on national level using Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including simulation analysis and accuracy improvement from 2020 to 2023. Most importantly, we provide new advanced pathways which may serve as targets for developing new solutions and approaches.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought in the North-Eastern Coastal Region of Vietnam Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.

An Educational GUI-Based Software for Dynamic Analysis of Framed Structural Models

This paper introduces a new version of the open-source educational software, LESM (Linear Elements Structure Model), developed in MATLAB for structural analysis of one-dimensional models such as frames, trusses, and grillages. The updated program includes dynamic analysis, which incorporates inertial and damping effects, time-dependent load conditions, and a transient solver with multiple time integration schemes. The software assumes small displacements and linear-elastic material behavior. The paper briefly explains the theoretical basis for these developments and the reorganization of the source code using Object-Oriented Programming (OOP). The updated Graphical User Interface (GUI) allows interactive use of dynamic analysis features and displays new results such as animations, envelope diagrams of internal forces, phase portraits, and the response of degrees-of-freedom in time and frequency domain. The new version was used in a structural dynamics course, and new assignments were elaborated to improve students’ understanding of the subject.