It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of u...It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.In this study,a novel vegetation-building-nighttime light-adjusted index(VBNAI)was established for rapid and effective mapping of urban construction land(UCL)in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration(CPUA),China during 2000–2020 based on Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform.Compared with traditional indices,VBNAI can significantly decrease the blooming effect,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)saturation,and soil background of nighttime light data.In addition,the urban expansion indices and standard deviation ellipse model were synthetically adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of urban expansion.The gravity model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to determine the spatial interaction forces and drivers of urban expansion,respectively.The results showed that the VBNAI index has obvious advantages in efficiency and accuracy to extract UCL with the overall accuracy of more than 91%.The UCL of CPUA had increased by 4489.84 km2 during 2000–2020 with the gravity center moving towards southeast continuously.From 2000 to 2010,the urban expansion was in a‘center-hinterland’pattern which had benefit from the favorable effect of the traffic shaft belt.During 2010–2020,the urban network structure had basically established.Urban expansion had been influenced by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors,and the impact degree varied from region to region.This study could provide scientific references for facilitating the intensive utilization of urban resources and optimizing the spatial development pattern of urban agglomeration.展开更多
The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by ...The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.展开更多
Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective struc...Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.展开更多
In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Lar...In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Large misalignment angle and time delay often occur simultaneously and bring great challenges to the accurate measurement of hull deformation in space and time.The proposed method utilizes coarse alignment with large misalignment angle and time delay estimation of inertial measurement unit modeling to establish a brand-new spatiotemporal aligned hull deformation measurement model.In addition,two-step loop control is designed to ensure the accurate description of dynamic deformation angle and static deformation angle by the time-space alignment method of hull deformation.The experiments illustrate that the proposed method can effectively measure the hull deformation angle when time delay and large misalignment angle coexist.展开更多
BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the...BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the necessary demands for the regeneration and repair of damaged tissues or organs.Studies suggested that mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs),necessary for repair and regeneration via transplantation,require doses ranging from 10 to 400 million cells.Furthermore,the limited expansion of MSCs restricts their therapeutic application.AIM To optimize a novel protocol to achieve qualitative and quantitative expansion of MSCs to reach the targeted number of cells for cellular transplantation and minimize the limitations in stem cell therapy protocols.METHODS Human umbilical cord(hUC)tissue derived MSCs were obtained and re-cultured.These cultured cells were subjected to the following evaluation pro-cedures:Immunophenotyping,immunocytochemical staining,trilineage differentiation,population doubling time and number,gene expression markers for proliferation,cell cycle progression,senescence-associatedβ-galactosidase assay,human telomerase reverse transcriptase(hTERT)expression,mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus and endotoxin detection.RESULTS Analysis of pluripotent gene markers Oct4,Sox2,and Nanog in recultured hUC-MSC revealed no significant differences.The immunophenotypic markers CD90,CD73,CD105,CD44,vimentin,CD29,Stro-1,and Lin28 were positively expressed by these recultured expanded MSCs,and were found negative for CD34,CD11b,CD19,CD45,and HLA-DR.The recultured hUC-MSC population continued to expand through passage 15.Proliferative gene expression of Pax6,BMP2,and TGFb1 showed no significant variation between recultured hUC-MSC groups.Nevertheless,a significant increase(P<0.001)in the mitotic phase of the cell cycle was observed in recultured hUC-MSCs.Cellular senescence markers(hTERT expression andβ-galactosidase activity)did not show any negative effect on recultured hUC-MSCs.Additionally,quality control assessments consistently confirmed the absence of mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus,and endotoxin contamination.CONCLUSION This study proposes the development of a novel protocol for efficiently expanding stem cell population.This would address the growing demand for larger stem cell doses needed for cellular transplantation and will significantly improve the feasibility of stem cell based therapies.展开更多
Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingda...Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.展开更多
Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning mode...Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.展开更多
Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanne...Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarms in harsh environments.This paper proposes an intelligent framework to quickly recover the cooperative coveragemission by aggregating the historical spatio-temporal network with the attention mechanism.The mission resilience metric is introduced in conjunction with connectivity and coverage status information to simplify the optimization model.A spatio-temporal node pooling method is proposed to ensure all node location features can be updated after destruction by capturing the temporal network structure.Combined with the corresponding Laplacian matrix as the hyperparameter,a recovery algorithm based on the multi-head attention graph network is designed to achieve rapid recovery.Simulation results showed that the proposed framework can facilitate rapid recovery of the connectivity and coverage more effectively compared to the existing studies.The results demonstrate that the average connectivity and coverage results is improved by 17.92%and 16.96%,respectively compared with the state-of-the-art model.Furthermore,by the ablation study,the contributions of each different improvement are compared.The proposed model can be used to support resilient network design for real-time mission execution.展开更多
High speed photography technique is potentially the most effective way to measure the motion parameter of warhead fragment benefiting from its advantages of high accuracy,high resolution and high efficiency.However,it...High speed photography technique is potentially the most effective way to measure the motion parameter of warhead fragment benefiting from its advantages of high accuracy,high resolution and high efficiency.However,it faces challenge in dense objects tracking and 3D trajectories reconstruction due to the characteristics of small size and dense distribution of fragment swarm.To address these challenges,this work presents a warhead fragments motion trajectories tracking and spatio-temporal distribution reconstruction method based on high-speed stereo photography.Firstly,background difference algorithm is utilized to extract the center and area of each fragment in the image sequence.Subsequently,a multi-object tracking(MOT)algorithm using Kalman filtering and Hungarian optimal assignment is developed to realize real-time and robust trajectories tracking of fragment swarm.To reconstruct 3D motion trajectories,a global stereo trajectories matching strategy is presented,which takes advantages of epipolar constraint and continuity constraint to correctly retrieve stereo correspondence followed by 3D trajectories refinement using polynomial fitting.Finally,the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately track the motion trajectories and reconstruct the spatio-temporal distribution of 1.0×10^(3)fragments in a field of view(FOV)of 3.2 m×2.5 m,and the accuracy of the velocity estimation can achieve 98.6%.展开更多
In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, whi...In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.展开更多
To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage p...To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.展开更多
False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work u...False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work usually trains a detection model by fusing the data-driven features from diverse power data streams.Data-driven features,however,cannot effectively capture the differences between noisy data and attack samples.As a result,slight noise disturbances in the power grid may cause a large number of false detections for FDIA attacks.To address this problem,this paper designs a deep collaborative self-attention network to achieve robust FDIA detection,in which the spatio-temporal features of cascaded FDIA attacks are fully integrated.Firstly,a high-order Chebyshev polynomials-based graph convolution module is designed to effectively aggregate the spatio information between grid nodes,and the spatial self-attention mechanism is involved to dynamically assign attention weights to each node,which guides the network to pay more attention to the node information that is conducive to FDIA detection.Furthermore,the bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is introduced to conduct time series modeling and long-term dependence analysis for power grid data and utilizes the temporal selfattention mechanism to describe the time correlation of data and assign different weights to different time steps.Our designed deep collaborative network can effectively mine subtle perturbations from spatiotemporal feature information,efficiently distinguish power grid noise from FDIA attacks,and adapt to diverse attack intensities.Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can obtain an efficient detection performance over actual load data from New York Independent System Operator(NYISO)in IEEE 14,IEEE 39,and IEEE 118 bus systems,and outperforms state-of-the-art FDIA detection schemes in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.展开更多
The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for num...The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.展开更多
In the space plasma environment, primary discharge may occur on the solar array and evolve into a destructive sustained arc, which threatens the safe operation of the spacecraft. Based on the plasma expansion fluid th...In the space plasma environment, primary discharge may occur on the solar array and evolve into a destructive sustained arc, which threatens the safe operation of the spacecraft. Based on the plasma expansion fluid theory, a new multicomponent plasma expansion model is proposed in this study, which takes into account the effects of ion species, ion number, initial discharge current, and Low Earth Orbit(LEO) plasma environment. The expansion simulation of single-component and multicomponent ions is carried out respectively, and the variations of plasma number density, expansion distance, and speed during the expansion process are obtained.Compared with the experimental results, the evolution of propagation distance and speed is closed and the error is within a reasonable range, which verifies the validity and rationality of the model. The propagation characteristics of the primary discharge on the solar array surface and the influence of the initial value on the maximum propagation distance and the propagation current peaks are investigated. This study can provide important theoretical support for the propagation and evolution of the primary discharge and the key behavior of the transition to secondary discharge on spacecraft solar array.展开更多
With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage co...With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.展开更多
A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were in...A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.展开更多
In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.T...In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.展开更多
The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns ...The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.展开更多
In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of nor...In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Social Science and Humanity on Young Fund of the Ministry of Education of China(No.21YJCZH100)the Scientific Research Project on Outstanding Young of the Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(No.XJQ201920)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Innovation Special Fund Project of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(No.CXZX2021032)the Forestry Peak Discipline Construction Project of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(No.72202200205)。
文摘It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.In this study,a novel vegetation-building-nighttime light-adjusted index(VBNAI)was established for rapid and effective mapping of urban construction land(UCL)in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration(CPUA),China during 2000–2020 based on Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform.Compared with traditional indices,VBNAI can significantly decrease the blooming effect,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)saturation,and soil background of nighttime light data.In addition,the urban expansion indices and standard deviation ellipse model were synthetically adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of urban expansion.The gravity model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to determine the spatial interaction forces and drivers of urban expansion,respectively.The results showed that the VBNAI index has obvious advantages in efficiency and accuracy to extract UCL with the overall accuracy of more than 91%.The UCL of CPUA had increased by 4489.84 km2 during 2000–2020 with the gravity center moving towards southeast continuously.From 2000 to 2010,the urban expansion was in a‘center-hinterland’pattern which had benefit from the favorable effect of the traffic shaft belt.During 2010–2020,the urban network structure had basically established.Urban expansion had been influenced by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors,and the impact degree varied from region to region.This study could provide scientific references for facilitating the intensive utilization of urban resources and optimizing the spatial development pattern of urban agglomeration.
基金funding support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFB2604004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52108374)the“Taishan”Scholar Program of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.tsqn201909016)。
文摘The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFC1509901)。
文摘Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.
基金supported by Beijing Insititute of Technology Research Fund Program for Young Scholars(2020X04104)。
文摘In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Large misalignment angle and time delay often occur simultaneously and bring great challenges to the accurate measurement of hull deformation in space and time.The proposed method utilizes coarse alignment with large misalignment angle and time delay estimation of inertial measurement unit modeling to establish a brand-new spatiotemporal aligned hull deformation measurement model.In addition,two-step loop control is designed to ensure the accurate description of dynamic deformation angle and static deformation angle by the time-space alignment method of hull deformation.The experiments illustrate that the proposed method can effectively measure the hull deformation angle when time delay and large misalignment angle coexist.
基金Supported by Higher Education Commission,Islamabad,Pakistan grant,No.20-17590/NRPU/R&D/HEC/20212021.
文摘BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the necessary demands for the regeneration and repair of damaged tissues or organs.Studies suggested that mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs),necessary for repair and regeneration via transplantation,require doses ranging from 10 to 400 million cells.Furthermore,the limited expansion of MSCs restricts their therapeutic application.AIM To optimize a novel protocol to achieve qualitative and quantitative expansion of MSCs to reach the targeted number of cells for cellular transplantation and minimize the limitations in stem cell therapy protocols.METHODS Human umbilical cord(hUC)tissue derived MSCs were obtained and re-cultured.These cultured cells were subjected to the following evaluation pro-cedures:Immunophenotyping,immunocytochemical staining,trilineage differentiation,population doubling time and number,gene expression markers for proliferation,cell cycle progression,senescence-associatedβ-galactosidase assay,human telomerase reverse transcriptase(hTERT)expression,mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus and endotoxin detection.RESULTS Analysis of pluripotent gene markers Oct4,Sox2,and Nanog in recultured hUC-MSC revealed no significant differences.The immunophenotypic markers CD90,CD73,CD105,CD44,vimentin,CD29,Stro-1,and Lin28 were positively expressed by these recultured expanded MSCs,and were found negative for CD34,CD11b,CD19,CD45,and HLA-DR.The recultured hUC-MSC population continued to expand through passage 15.Proliferative gene expression of Pax6,BMP2,and TGFb1 showed no significant variation between recultured hUC-MSC groups.Nevertheless,a significant increase(P<0.001)in the mitotic phase of the cell cycle was observed in recultured hUC-MSCs.Cellular senescence markers(hTERT expression andβ-galactosidase activity)did not show any negative effect on recultured hUC-MSCs.Additionally,quality control assessments consistently confirmed the absence of mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus,and endotoxin contamination.CONCLUSION This study proposes the development of a novel protocol for efficiently expanding stem cell population.This would address the growing demand for larger stem cell doses needed for cellular transplantation and will significantly improve the feasibility of stem cell based therapies.
基金supported by the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,the Research and Development of Standards and Standardization of Nomenclature in the Field of Public Health-Research Project on the Development of the Disciplines of Public Health and Preventive Medicine[242402]the Shandong Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Plan[202112050731].
文摘Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.
基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS,Grant/Award Number:2021103Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant/Award Number:XDC02060500。
文摘Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NNSFC)(Grant Nos.72001213 and 72301292)the National Social Science Fund of China(Grant No.19BGL297)the Basic Research Program of Natural Science in Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2021JQ-369).
文摘Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarms in harsh environments.This paper proposes an intelligent framework to quickly recover the cooperative coveragemission by aggregating the historical spatio-temporal network with the attention mechanism.The mission resilience metric is introduced in conjunction with connectivity and coverage status information to simplify the optimization model.A spatio-temporal node pooling method is proposed to ensure all node location features can be updated after destruction by capturing the temporal network structure.Combined with the corresponding Laplacian matrix as the hyperparameter,a recovery algorithm based on the multi-head attention graph network is designed to achieve rapid recovery.Simulation results showed that the proposed framework can facilitate rapid recovery of the connectivity and coverage more effectively compared to the existing studies.The results demonstrate that the average connectivity and coverage results is improved by 17.92%and 16.96%,respectively compared with the state-of-the-art model.Furthermore,by the ablation study,the contributions of each different improvement are compared.The proposed model can be used to support resilient network design for real-time mission execution.
基金Key Basic Research Project of Strengthening the Foundations Plan of China (Grant No.2019-JCJQ-ZD-360-12)National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China (Grant No.JCKY2021208B011)to provide fund for conducting experiments。
文摘High speed photography technique is potentially the most effective way to measure the motion parameter of warhead fragment benefiting from its advantages of high accuracy,high resolution and high efficiency.However,it faces challenge in dense objects tracking and 3D trajectories reconstruction due to the characteristics of small size and dense distribution of fragment swarm.To address these challenges,this work presents a warhead fragments motion trajectories tracking and spatio-temporal distribution reconstruction method based on high-speed stereo photography.Firstly,background difference algorithm is utilized to extract the center and area of each fragment in the image sequence.Subsequently,a multi-object tracking(MOT)algorithm using Kalman filtering and Hungarian optimal assignment is developed to realize real-time and robust trajectories tracking of fragment swarm.To reconstruct 3D motion trajectories,a global stereo trajectories matching strategy is presented,which takes advantages of epipolar constraint and continuity constraint to correctly retrieve stereo correspondence followed by 3D trajectories refinement using polynomial fitting.Finally,the simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately track the motion trajectories and reconstruct the spatio-temporal distribution of 1.0×10^(3)fragments in a field of view(FOV)of 3.2 m×2.5 m,and the accuracy of the velocity estimation can achieve 98.6%.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province, China (No.2021-ZJ940Q)。
文摘In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62073256)the Shaanxi Provincial Science and Technology Department(Grant No.2023-YBGY-342).
文摘To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.
基金supported in part by the Research Fund of Guangxi Key Lab of Multi-Source Information Mining&Security(MIMS21-M-02).
文摘False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work usually trains a detection model by fusing the data-driven features from diverse power data streams.Data-driven features,however,cannot effectively capture the differences between noisy data and attack samples.As a result,slight noise disturbances in the power grid may cause a large number of false detections for FDIA attacks.To address this problem,this paper designs a deep collaborative self-attention network to achieve robust FDIA detection,in which the spatio-temporal features of cascaded FDIA attacks are fully integrated.Firstly,a high-order Chebyshev polynomials-based graph convolution module is designed to effectively aggregate the spatio information between grid nodes,and the spatial self-attention mechanism is involved to dynamically assign attention weights to each node,which guides the network to pay more attention to the node information that is conducive to FDIA detection.Furthermore,the bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is introduced to conduct time series modeling and long-term dependence analysis for power grid data and utilizes the temporal selfattention mechanism to describe the time correlation of data and assign different weights to different time steps.Our designed deep collaborative network can effectively mine subtle perturbations from spatiotemporal feature information,efficiently distinguish power grid noise from FDIA attacks,and adapt to diverse attack intensities.Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can obtain an efficient detection performance over actual load data from New York Independent System Operator(NYISO)in IEEE 14,IEEE 39,and IEEE 118 bus systems,and outperforms state-of-the-art FDIA detection schemes in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.12104153 and 51765017)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M701963)Training Plan for Academic and Technical Leaders of Major Disciplines in Jiangxi Province,China(Grant No.20204BCJL23034).
文摘The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51937004 and 51977002)sponsored by Beijing Nova Program (No. 20220484153)。
文摘In the space plasma environment, primary discharge may occur on the solar array and evolve into a destructive sustained arc, which threatens the safe operation of the spacecraft. Based on the plasma expansion fluid theory, a new multicomponent plasma expansion model is proposed in this study, which takes into account the effects of ion species, ion number, initial discharge current, and Low Earth Orbit(LEO) plasma environment. The expansion simulation of single-component and multicomponent ions is carried out respectively, and the variations of plasma number density, expansion distance, and speed during the expansion process are obtained.Compared with the experimental results, the evolution of propagation distance and speed is closed and the error is within a reasonable range, which verifies the validity and rationality of the model. The propagation characteristics of the primary discharge on the solar array surface and the influence of the initial value on the maximum propagation distance and the propagation current peaks are investigated. This study can provide important theoretical support for the propagation and evolution of the primary discharge and the key behavior of the transition to secondary discharge on spacecraft solar array.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(SGSW0000FZGHBJS2200070)。
文摘With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.
文摘A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the support provided by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX18_0526)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2018B682X14)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2021A1515110807).
文摘In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.
基金funded by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia through the research funding assistance program。
文摘The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.
文摘In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).