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Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Local Context for a Contextualized Diffusion of Agroecological Intensification Options in Niger
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作者 Nouhou Salifou Jangorzo Maud Loireau +3 位作者 Abou-Soufianou Sadda Ousmane Sami Mari Abdoul-Aziz Saïdou Hassane Bil-Assanou Issoufou 《International Journal of Geosciences》 CAS 2024年第3期270-301,共32页
Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view ... Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 NIGER Option by Context Local Condition Complex System Multiscale Conceptual modeling
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Infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk in Anhui Province based on sixteen year’s longitudinal surveillance data:a spatio-temporal modelling study
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作者 Xin Liu Yang Sun +8 位作者 Yun Yin Xiaofeng Dai Robert Bergquist Fenghua Gao Rui Liu Jie Liu Fuju Wang Xiao Lv Zhijie Zhang 《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第6期99-100,共2页
Background Urbanization greatly afects the natural and social environment of human existence and may have a multifactoral impact on parasitic diseases.Schistosomiasis,a common parasitic disease transmitted by the snai... Background Urbanization greatly afects the natural and social environment of human existence and may have a multifactoral impact on parasitic diseases.Schistosomiasis,a common parasitic disease transmitted by the snail Oncomelania hupensis,is mainly found in areas with population aggregations along rivers and lakes where snails live.Previous studies have suggested that factors related to urbanization may infuence the infection risk of schistosomiasis,but this association remains unclear.This study aimed to analyse the efect of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk from a spatial and temporal perspective in the endemic areas along the Yangtze River Basin in China.Methods County-level schistosomiasis surveillance data and natural environmental factor data covering the whole Anhui Province were collected.The urbanization level was characterized based on night-time light data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP-OLS)and the National Polar-Orbiting Partnership’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(NPP-VIIRS).The geographically and temporally weighted regression model(GTWR)was used to quantify the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk with the other potential risk factors controlled.The regression coefcient of urbanization was tested for signifcance(α=0.05),and the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk was analysed over time and across space based on signifcant regression coefcients.Variables studied included climate,soil,vegetation,hydrology and topography.Results The mean regression coefcient for urbanization(0.167)is second only to the leached soil area(0.300),which shows that the urbanization is the most important infuence factors for schistosomiasis infection risk besides leached soil area.The other important variables are distance to the nearest water source(0.165),mean minimum temperature(0.130),broadleaf forest area(0.105),amount of precipitation(0.073),surface temperature(0.066),soil bulk density(0.037)and grassland area(0.031).The infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk showed a decreasing trend year by year.During the study period,the signifcant coefcient of urbanization level increased from−0.205 to−0.131.Conclusions The infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection has spatio-temporal heterogeneous.The urbanization does reduce the risk of schistosomiasis infection to some extend,but the strength of this infuence decreases with increasing urbanization.Additionally,the efect of urbanization on schistosomiasis infection risk was greater than previous reported natural environmental factors.This study provides scientifc basis for understanding the infuence of urbanization on schistosomiasis,and also provides the feasible research methods for other similar studies to answer the issue about the impact of urbanization on disease risk. 展开更多
关键词 URBANIZATION Night-time light data SCHISTOSOMIASIS spatio-temporal analysis Geographically and temporally weighted regression
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Improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method for hull deformation
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作者 XU Dongsheng YU Yuanjin +1 位作者 ZHANG Xiaoli PENG Xiafu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期485-494,共10页
In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Lar... In this paper,an improved spatio-temporal alignment measurement method is presented to address the inertial matching measurement of hull deformation under the coexistence of time delay and large misalignment angle.Large misalignment angle and time delay often occur simultaneously and bring great challenges to the accurate measurement of hull deformation in space and time.The proposed method utilizes coarse alignment with large misalignment angle and time delay estimation of inertial measurement unit modeling to establish a brand-new spatiotemporal aligned hull deformation measurement model.In addition,two-step loop control is designed to ensure the accurate description of dynamic deformation angle and static deformation angle by the time-space alignment method of hull deformation.The experiments illustrate that the proposed method can effectively measure the hull deformation angle when time delay and large misalignment angle coexist. 展开更多
关键词 inertial measurement spatio-temporal alignment hull deformation
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An Intelligent Framework for Resilience Recovery of FANETs with Spatio-Temporal Aggregation and Multi-Head Attention Mechanism
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作者 Zhijun Guo Yun Sun +2 位作者 YingWang Chaoqi Fu Jilong Zhong 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第5期2375-2398,共24页
Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanne... Due to the time-varying topology and possible disturbances in a conflict environment,it is still challenging to maintain the mission performance of flying Ad hoc networks(FANET),which limits the application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarms in harsh environments.This paper proposes an intelligent framework to quickly recover the cooperative coveragemission by aggregating the historical spatio-temporal network with the attention mechanism.The mission resilience metric is introduced in conjunction with connectivity and coverage status information to simplify the optimization model.A spatio-temporal node pooling method is proposed to ensure all node location features can be updated after destruction by capturing the temporal network structure.Combined with the corresponding Laplacian matrix as the hyperparameter,a recovery algorithm based on the multi-head attention graph network is designed to achieve rapid recovery.Simulation results showed that the proposed framework can facilitate rapid recovery of the connectivity and coverage more effectively compared to the existing studies.The results demonstrate that the average connectivity and coverage results is improved by 17.92%and 16.96%,respectively compared with the state-of-the-art model.Furthermore,by the ablation study,the contributions of each different improvement are compared.The proposed model can be used to support resilient network design for real-time mission execution. 展开更多
关键词 RESILIENCE cooperative mission FANET spatio-temporal node pooling multi-head attention graph network
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Numerical analysis of high‑speed railway slab tracks using calibrated and validated 3D time‑domain modelling
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作者 A.F.Esen O.Laghrouche +4 位作者 P.K.Woodward D.Medina‑Pineda Q.Corbisez J.Y.Shih D.P.Connolly 《Railway Engineering Science》 EI 2024年第1期36-58,共23页
Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a ... Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a novel slab trackform for high-speed railways is investigated using three-dimensional finite element modelling in Abaqus.It is then compared to the performance of a ballasted track.First,slab and ballasted track models are developed to replicate the full-scale testing of track sections.Once the models are calibrated with the experimental results,the novel slab model is developed and compared against the calibrated slab track results.The slab and ballasted track models are then extended to create linear dynamic models,considering the track geodynamics,and simulating train passages at various speeds,for which the Ledsgard documented case was used to validate the models.Trains travelling at low and high speeds are analysed to investigate the track deflections and the wave propagation in the soil,considering the issues associated with critical speeds.Various train loading methods are discussed,and the most practical approach is retained and described.Moreover,correlations are made between the geotechnical parameters of modern high-speed rail and conventional standards.It is found that considering the same ground condition,the slab track deflections are considerably smaller than those of the ballasted track at high speeds,while they show similar behaviour at low speeds. 展开更多
关键词 High-speed railways Slab track New ballastless track Ballasted track Critical speeds Finite element modelling Calibration of numerical models
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Hydrological Modelling of the Casamance River in Its Upstream Section (Basin at Kolda Level) to Predict Its Future States as a Function of Different Stresses
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作者 Coumba Ndiaye Saïdou Ndao 《Open Journal of Geology》 CAS 2024年第2期143-154,共12页
Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate c... Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059. 展开更多
关键词 Casamance Watershed Climate Change GR2M Climate models
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Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model
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作者 Lauben Muhangane Morgan Andama 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 CAS 2024年第2期181-206,共26页
Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 19... Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products. 展开更多
关键词 Land Cover River Catchment Geographic Information System Markov model Sustainable Land Management
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Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China
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作者 Minzhe Fang Changjin Cheng +2 位作者 Nianpeng He Guoxin Si Osbert Jianxin Sun 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期1-11,共11页
Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations... Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods. 展开更多
关键词 BIOME-BGC Community traits Forest Ecosystems model parameterization
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Prospect Theory Based Individual Irrationality Modelling and Behavior Inducement in Pandemic Control
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作者 Wenxiang Dong H.Vicky Zhao 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第7期139-170,共32页
Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Mean... Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior. 展开更多
关键词 Disease spread behavior model IRRATIONALITY prospect theory
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Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate
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作者 Zhengchao Ren Lei Liu +1 位作者 Fang Yin Xiaoni Liu 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期184-192,共9页
Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional pr... Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide. 展开更多
关键词 Potential natural vegetation Global warming Vegetation classification Predicted model CSCS
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Spatio-Temporal Change of Dispersal Areas of Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in Lake Bogoria Landscape, Kenya
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作者 Beatrice Chepkoech Cheserek George Morara Ogendi Paul Mutua Makenzi 《Open Journal of Ecology》 2024年第3期183-198,共16页
Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last... Decline in wildlife populations is manifest globally, regionally and locally. A wildlife decline of 68% has been reported in Kenya’s rangelands with Baringo County experiencing more than 85% wildlife loss in the last four decades. Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) is endemic to Lake Bogoria landscape in Baringo County and constitutes a major tourist attraction for the region necessitating use of its photo on the County’s logo and thus a flagship species. Tourism plays a central role in Baringo County’s economy and is a major source of potential growth and employment creation. The study was carried out to assess spatio-temporal change of dispersal areas of Greater Kudu (GK) in Lake Bogoria landscape in the last four years for enhanced adaptive management and improved livelihoods. GK population distribution primary data collected in December 2022 and secondary data acquired from Lake Bogoria National Game Reserve (LBNGR) for 2019 and 2020 were digitized using in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Measures of dispersion and point pattern analysis (PPA) were used to analyze dispersal of GK population using GIS. Spatio-temporal change of GK dispersal in LBNR was evident thus the null hypothesis was rejected. It is recommended that anthropogenic activities contributing to GK’s habitat degradation be curbed by providing alternative livelihood sources and promoting community adoption of sustainable technologies for improved livelihoods. 展开更多
关键词 spatio-temporal Change Dispersal Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus Strepsiceros) Point Pattern Analysis (PPA) GIS
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Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea
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作者 WEN Ze-guo WANG Fu-ming +1 位作者 WAN Jing YANG Fan 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第3期491-504,共14页
The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption ass... The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone numerical wave modelling hazards offshore wind turbines structural response
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Discrete Element Modelling of Damage Evolution of Concrete Considering Meso-Structure of ITZ
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作者 Weiliang Gao Shixu Jia +1 位作者 Tingting Zhao Zhiyong Wang 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第6期3495-3511,共17页
The mechanical properties of interfacial transition zones(ITZs)have traditionally been simplified by reducing the stiffness of cement in previous simulation methods.A novel approach based on the discrete element metho... The mechanical properties of interfacial transition zones(ITZs)have traditionally been simplified by reducing the stiffness of cement in previous simulation methods.A novel approach based on the discrete element method(DEM)has been developed for modeling concrete.This new approach efficiently simulates the meso-structure of ITZs,accurately capturing their heterogeneous properties.Validation against established uniaxial compression experiments confirms the precision of thismodel.The proposedmodel canmodel the process of damage evolution containing cracks initiation,propagation and penetration.Under increasing loads,cracks within ITZs progressively accumulate,culminating in macroscopic fractures that traverse themortarmatrix,forming the complex,serpentine path of cracks.This study reveals four distinct displacement patterns:tensile compliant,tensile opposite,mixed tensile-shear,and shear opposite patterns,each indicative of different stages in concrete’s damage evolution.The widening angle of these patterns delineates the progression of cracks,with the tensile compliant pattern signaling the initial crack appearance and the shear opposite pattern indicating the concrete model’s ultimate failure. 展开更多
关键词 Discrete element method damage evolution interfacial transition zone meso-structure model
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A framework for dynamic modelling of railway track switches considering the switch blades,actuators and control systems
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作者 Saikat Dutta Tim Harrison +2 位作者 Christopher Ward Roger Dixon Phil Winship 《Railway Engineering Science》 EI 2024年第2期162-176,共15页
The main contribution of this paper is the development and demonstration of a novel methodology that can be followed to develop a simulation twin of a railway track switch system to test the functionality in a digital... The main contribution of this paper is the development and demonstration of a novel methodology that can be followed to develop a simulation twin of a railway track switch system to test the functionality in a digital environment.This is important because,globally,railway track switches are used to allow trains to change routes;they are a key part of all railway networks.However,because track switches are single points of failure and safety-critical,their inability to operate correctly can cause significant delays and concomitant costs.In order to better understand the dynamic behaviour of switches during operation,this paper has developed a full simulation twin of a complete track switch system.The approach fuses finite element for the rail bending and motion,with physics-based models of the electromechanical actuator system and the control system.Hence,it provides researchers and engineers the opportunity to explore and understand the design space around the dynamic operation of new switches and switch machines before they are built.This is useful for looking at the modification or monitoring of existing switches,and it becomes even more important when new switch concepts are being considered and evaluated.The simulation is capable of running in real time or faster meaning designs can be iterated and checked interactively.The paper describes the modelling approach,demonstrates the methodology by developing the system model for a novel“REPOINT”switch system,and evaluates the system level performance against the dynamic performance requirements for the switch.In the context of that case study,it is found that the proposed new actuation system as designed can meet(and exceed)the system performance requirements,and that the fault tolerance built into the actuation ensures continued operation after a single actuator failure. 展开更多
关键词 Railway track switch Mathematical modelling Redundant actuation Finite element analysis
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Modelling the monthly hydrological balance using Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model:A case study of the Wadi Mina upstream watershed
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作者 Hanane Mebarki Noureddine Maref Mohammed El-Amine Dris 《Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering》 2024年第2期161-177,共17页
Modelling the hydrological balance in semi-arid zones is essential for effective water resource management,encompassing both surface water and groundwater.This study aims to model the monthly hydrological water cycle ... Modelling the hydrological balance in semi-arid zones is essential for effective water resource management,encompassing both surface water and groundwater.This study aims to model the monthly hydrological water cycle in the Wadi Mina upstream watershed(northwest Algeria)by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model.SWAT modelling integrates spatial data such as the Digital Elevation Model(DEM),land use,soil types and various meteorological parameters including precipitation,maximum and minimum temperatures,relative humidity,solar radiation and wind speed.The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using data from January 2012 to December 2014,with a calibra-tion period from January 2012 to August 2013 and a validation period from September 2013 to December 2014.Sensitivity and parameter calibration were conducted using the SWAT-SA program,and model performance evaluation relied on comparing the observed discharge at the outlet of the basin with model-simulated discharge,assessed through statistical coefficients including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE),coefficient of determination(R2)and Percent Bias(PBAIS).Calibration results indicated favourable objec-tive function values(NSE=0.79,R2=0.93,PBAIS=-8.53%),although a slight decrease was observed during validation(NSE=0.69,R2=0.86,and PBAIS=-11.41%).The application of the SWAT model to the Wadi Mina upstream watershed highlighted its utility in simulating the spatial distribution of different components of the hydrological balance in this basin.The SWAT model revealed that approximately 71%of the precipitation in the basin evaporates,while only 29%contributes to surface runoff or infiltration into the soil. 展开更多
关键词 SWAT model Performance Parameters RUNOFF GROUNDWATER WADI
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Modelling the viscoplastic behaviour of Callovo-Oxfordian claystone with consideration of damage effect
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作者 Hao Wang Yu-Jun Cui +1 位作者 Minh Ngoc Vu Jean Talandier 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期303-316,共14页
In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute... In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute-Marne(MHM).The construction of URL induced the excavation damage of host formations,and the ventilation in the galleries desaturated the host formation close to the gallery wall.Moreover,it is expected that the mechanical behaviour of COx claystone is time-dependent.This study presents a constitutive model developed to describe the viscoplastic behaviour of unsaturated and damaged COx claystone.In this model,the unsaturation effect is considered by adopting the Bishop effective stress and the van Genuchten(VG)water retention model.In terms of the viscoplastic behaviour,the nonstationary flow surface(NSFS)theory for unsaturated soils is used with consideration of the coupled effects of strain rate and suction on the yield stress.A progressive hardening law is adopted.Meanwhile,a non-associated flow rule is used,which is similar to that in Barcelona basic model(BBM).In addition,to describe the damage effect induced by suction change and viscoplastic loading,a damage function is defined based on the crack volume proportion.This damage function contains two variables:unsaturated effective stress and viscoplastic volumetric strain,with the related parameters determined based on the mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP)tests.For the model validation,different tests on COx claystone under different loading paths are simulated.Comparisons between experimental and simulated results indicated that the present model is able to well describe the viscoplastic behaviour of damaged COx claystone,including swelling/shrinkage,triaxial extension and compression,and triaxial creep. 展开更多
关键词 Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone Excavation damage Time-dependent behaviour SUCTION Viscoplastic model
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Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Modeling in Disease Mapping
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作者 Flavian Awere Otieno Cox Lwaka Tamba +1 位作者 Justin Obwoge Okenye Luke Akong’o Orawo 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2023年第6期893-916,共24页
Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex a... Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties. 展开更多
关键词 spatio-temporal model Matern Exponential Covariance Function Spatial and Temporal Dependencies Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
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Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Green Spaces in the Central Urban Area of Zunyi City
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作者 Juan Du 《Journal of Architectural Research and Development》 2024年第4期8-16,共9页
Green space,as a medium for carrying out urban functions and guiding urban development,is becoming a scarce resource along with the urbanization process and the intensification of environmental problems.In the face of... Green space,as a medium for carrying out urban functions and guiding urban development,is becoming a scarce resource along with the urbanization process and the intensification of environmental problems.In the face of the spatial mismatch between high demand and low supply,it is of great significance to clarify the evolution mechanism of green space to undertake national spatial planning,protect the natural strategic resources in the urban fringe area,and promote the sustainable development of the“three living spaces.”The study focuses on the Zunyi City Center,selecting the 20 years of rapid development following its establishment as a city as the study period.It explores the dynamic evolution of green space and the main driving forces during different periods using remote-sensing image data.The study shows that from 2003 to 2023,the total scale of green space has an obvious decreasing trend along with the expansion of the urban built-up area.A large amount of arable land is being converted to construction land,resulting in a sudden decrease in arable land area.In the past 10 years,the comprehensive land use dynamics have accelerated.Still,the spatial difference has gradually narrowed,indicating that the overall development intensity of Zunyi City’s central urban area has increased.There is a gradual spread of the trend to the hilly areas.The limiting effect of the mountainous natural environment on the city’s development has gradually diminished under the superposition of external factors,such as economic development,industrial technological upgrading,and policy orientation so the importance of the effective protection and rational utilization of urban green space has become more prominent. 展开更多
关键词 Green space spatio-temporal evolution Driving force Zunyi city center
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Nucleation of Supercooled Water by Neutrons: Latitude Dependence and Implications for Cloud Modelling
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作者 Peter W. Wilson Elizabeth Wilson-Park Abraham G. Wilson 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2024年第2期221-232,共12页
It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nu... It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. . 展开更多
关键词 Climate models Ice Nucleation Neutrons SUPERCOOLING
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Assessment of sediment connectivity using modelling and field-based approaches in the Slavíč River catchment(MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts,Czech Republic)
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作者 MACUROVÁ Tereza ŠKARPICH Václav 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期734-753,共20页
Mountain streams act as conveyors of sediments within the river continuum,where the physical transport of sediments between river reaches through the catchment or between individual parts(e.g.,between hillslopes and c... Mountain streams act as conveyors of sediments within the river continuum,where the physical transport of sediments between river reaches through the catchment or between individual parts(e.g.,between hillslopes and channels)of the catchment is assumed.This study focused on sediment connectivity analysis in the SlavíčRiver catchment in the MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts in the eastern part of the Czech Republic.The connectivity index and connectivity index target modelling were combined with an analysis of anthropogenic interventions.Additionally,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis were used to obtain information about connectivity in the catchment.Based on the analysis and obtained results,terrain topography is the current main driving factor affecting the connectivity of sediment movement in the SlavíčRiver catchment.However,the modelling provided valuable information about high sediment connectivity despite different recent land use conditions(highly forested area of the catchment)than those in historical times from the 16th to 19th centuries when the SlavíčRiver catchment was highly deforested and sediment connectivity was probably higher.The analysis of anthropogenic interventions,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis revealed more deceleration of sediment movement through the catchment,decreased sediment connectivity with bed erosion,and gradual river channel process transformation in some reaches.Field mapping has identified various natural formations and human-induced changes impacting the longitudinal and lateral connectivity in the SlavíčRiver.For instance,embankments along 48%of the river's length,both on the right and left banks,significantly hinder lateral sediment supply to the channel.Stream power index analysis indicates increased energy levels in the flowing water in the river's upper reaches(up to 404.8 W m^(-2)).This high energy is also observed in certain downstream sections(up to 337.6 W m^(-2)),where it is influenced by human activities.These conditions lead to intensified erosion processes,playing a crucial role in sediment connectivity.Similar observations were described in recent studies that pointed out the long-term human interventions on many streams draining European mountains,where a decrease in sediment connectivity in these streams is linked with sediment deficits and the transformation of processes forming channels. 展开更多
关键词 Mountain stream Connectivity analysis modelling Grain size analysis SlavíčRiver MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts
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