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基于非参数核密度估计与数值天气预报的风速预测修正方法 被引量:20
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作者 刘晓楠 周介圭 +3 位作者 贾宏杰 穆云飞 王彤 戴晨松 《电力自动化设备》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第10期15-20,共6页
提出一种风速预测偏差修正方法。建立基于非参数核密度估计的风速修正模型,利用预测点之前一段时间内风速的初始预测误差来估计预测时刻的预测误差,从而对初始风速预测结果进行修正;结合数值天气预报法建立风速相位误差修正模型,有效减... 提出一种风速预测偏差修正方法。建立基于非参数核密度估计的风速修正模型,利用预测点之前一段时间内风速的初始预测误差来估计预测时刻的预测误差,从而对初始风速预测结果进行修正;结合数值天气预报法建立风速相位误差修正模型,有效减小风速预测的相位误差,在一定程度上防止风速突变拐点处"误修正"的出现。某地区实际风速数据的预测仿真结果表明,所提方法可有效降低初始风速预测偏差。 展开更多
关键词 风速预测 非参数核密度估计 数值天气预报 风速修正 模型
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Estimation of daily PM2.5 concentration and its relationship with meteorological conditions in Beijing 被引量:13
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作者 Qian Yin Jinfeng Wang +1 位作者 Maogui Hu Hoting Wong 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第10期161-168,共8页
When investigating the impact of air pollution on health, particulate matter less than 2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) is considered more harrnful than particulates of other sizes. Therefore, studies of PM2.5... When investigating the impact of air pollution on health, particulate matter less than 2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) is considered more harrnful than particulates of other sizes. Therefore, studies of PM2.5 have attracted more attention. Beijing, the capital of China, is notorious for its serious air pollution problem, an issue which has been of great concern to the residents, government, and related institutes for decades. However, in China, significantly less time has been devoted to observing PM2.5 than for PM10. Especially before 2013, the density of the PM2.5 ground observation network was relatively low, and the distribution of observation stations was uneven. One solution is to estimate PM2.5 concentrations from the existing data on PM10. In the present study, by analyzing the relationship between the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10, and the meteorological conditions for each season in Beijing from 2008 to 2014, a U-shaped relationship was found between the daily maximum wind speed and the daily PM concentration, including both PM2.5 and PM10. That is, the relationship between wind speed and PM concentration is not a simple positive or negative correlation in these wind directions; their relationship has a complex effect, with higher PM at low and high wind than for moderate winds. Additionally, in contrast to previous studies, we found that the PM2.5/PM10 ratio is proportional to the mean relative humidity (MRH). According to this relationship, for each season we established a multiple nonlinear regression (MNLR) model to estimate the PM2.5 concentrations of the missing periods. 展开更多
关键词 PM10 concentrationPM2.5 concentration estimationWind speedwind direction
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Transport of black carbon aerosols from non-local sources:A case study in Shanghai 被引量:2
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作者 Hongqiang Wang Yanming Kang +1 位作者 Qianshan He Yonghang Chen 《Particuology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第3期89-93,共5页
Black carbon (BC) aerosol mass carried by winds of varying directions from non-local sources was esti- mated based on hourly measured data of BC mass concentration (CBc) and meteorological parameters from January ... Black carbon (BC) aerosol mass carried by winds of varying directions from non-local sources was esti- mated based on hourly measured data of BC mass concentration (CBc) and meteorological parameters from January 2008 to December 2012 in Shanghai, and the relationship between annual average CBc and wind speed was analyzed. The results show that the annual average CBC decreased with wind speed for speeds exceeding 0.3 m/s. The relationship between the two was determined by a linear fit with corre- lation coefficient 0,88. Assuming BC aerosol mass of non-local sources transported by a southeast wind was zero, annual average BC concentrations (μg/m3) carried by winds of variable direction were 1.99 (southwest), 1.95 (west), 1.15 (northwest), 0.54 (south), 0.39 (north), 0.01 (northeast), and 0.01 (east). BC aerosol mass of non-local sources transported by wind to Shanghai was about 6404.05 t per year, among which the total contribution of southwest, west, and northwest winds was nearly 84~;. The aerosol mass transported to Shanghai in winter accounted for 35% that of the entire year, and was greater than that of the other seasons. 展开更多
关键词 Black carbon aerosoNon-local sourceMass concentrationWind speedwind direction
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