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Housing Boom,Dutch Disease,and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports
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作者 Zhuqing Liu Jiadong Tong 《China & World Economy》 2023年第3期205-229,共25页
Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis revea... Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels:resource movement effect and spending effect.Specifically,this paper found that:(i)the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry(resource movement efect)and caused higher inflation(spending effect);(ii)the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports,especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008;(ii)the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous,and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses,businesses that were foreign owned,less R&D intensive,or located in the central and western regions. 展开更多
关键词 Dutch disease housing boom manufacturing export resource movement effect spendingeffect
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