The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the wid...The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.展开更多
There are various phenomena of malicious information spreading in the real society, which cause many negative impacts on the society. In order to better control the spreading, it is crucial to reveal the influence of ...There are various phenomena of malicious information spreading in the real society, which cause many negative impacts on the society. In order to better control the spreading, it is crucial to reveal the influence of network structure on network spreading. Motifs, as fundamental structures within a network, play a significant role in spreading. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate the influence of the structural characteristics of basic network motifs on spreading dynamics.Considering the edges of the basic network motifs in an undirected network correspond to different tie ranges, two edge removal strategies are proposed, short ties priority removal strategy and long ties priority removal strategy. The tie range represents the second shortest path length between two connected nodes. The study focuses on analyzing how the proposed strategies impact network spreading and network structure, as well as examining the influence of network structure on network spreading. Our findings indicate that the long ties priority removal strategy is most effective in controlling network spreading, especially in terms of spread range and spread velocity. In terms of network structure, the clustering coefficient and the diameter of network also have an effect on the network spreading, and the triangular structure as an important motif structure effectively inhibits the spreading.展开更多
The prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading/displacement(Dh)is a challenging task for civil/geotechnical engineers.In this study,a new approach is proposed to predict Dh using gene expression programming(...The prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading/displacement(Dh)is a challenging task for civil/geotechnical engineers.In this study,a new approach is proposed to predict Dh using gene expression programming(GEP).Based on statistical reasoning,individual models were developed for two topographies:free-face and gently sloping ground.Along with a comparison with conventional approaches for predicting the Dh,four additional regression-based soft computing models,i.e.Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimization regression(SMOR),and M5-tree,were developed and compared with the GEP model.The results indicate that the GEP models predict Dh with less bias,as evidenced by the root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute error(MAE)for training(i.e.1.092 and 0.815;and 0.643 and 0.526)and for testing(i.e.0.89 and 0.705;and 0.773 and 0.573)in free-face and gently sloping ground topographies,respectively.The overall performance for the free-face topology was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>M5-tree>GPR>SMOR,with a total score of 40,32,24,15,and 10,respectively.For the gently sloping condition,the performance was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>GPR>M5-tree>SMOR with a total score of 40,32,21,19,and 8,respectively.Finally,the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that for both free-face and gently sloping ground,the liquefiable layer thickness(T_(15))was the major parameter with percentage deterioration(%D)value of 99.15 and 90.72,respectively.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.22273034)the Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling of Nanjing University。
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 62373197 and 62203229)the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. KYCX24_1211)。
文摘There are various phenomena of malicious information spreading in the real society, which cause many negative impacts on the society. In order to better control the spreading, it is crucial to reveal the influence of network structure on network spreading. Motifs, as fundamental structures within a network, play a significant role in spreading. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate the influence of the structural characteristics of basic network motifs on spreading dynamics.Considering the edges of the basic network motifs in an undirected network correspond to different tie ranges, two edge removal strategies are proposed, short ties priority removal strategy and long ties priority removal strategy. The tie range represents the second shortest path length between two connected nodes. The study focuses on analyzing how the proposed strategies impact network spreading and network structure, as well as examining the influence of network structure on network spreading. Our findings indicate that the long ties priority removal strategy is most effective in controlling network spreading, especially in terms of spread range and spread velocity. In terms of network structure, the clustering coefficient and the diameter of network also have an effect on the network spreading, and the triangular structure as an important motif structure effectively inhibits the spreading.
文摘The prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spreading/displacement(Dh)is a challenging task for civil/geotechnical engineers.In this study,a new approach is proposed to predict Dh using gene expression programming(GEP).Based on statistical reasoning,individual models were developed for two topographies:free-face and gently sloping ground.Along with a comparison with conventional approaches for predicting the Dh,four additional regression-based soft computing models,i.e.Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimization regression(SMOR),and M5-tree,were developed and compared with the GEP model.The results indicate that the GEP models predict Dh with less bias,as evidenced by the root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute error(MAE)for training(i.e.1.092 and 0.815;and 0.643 and 0.526)and for testing(i.e.0.89 and 0.705;and 0.773 and 0.573)in free-face and gently sloping ground topographies,respectively.The overall performance for the free-face topology was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>M5-tree>GPR>SMOR,with a total score of 40,32,24,15,and 10,respectively.For the gently sloping condition,the performance was ranked as follows:GEP>RVM>GPR>M5-tree>SMOR with a total score of 40,32,21,19,and 8,respectively.Finally,the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that for both free-face and gently sloping ground,the liquefiable layer thickness(T_(15))was the major parameter with percentage deterioration(%D)value of 99.15 and 90.72,respectively.
