In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical m...In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m^(-2),particularly below 400 W m^(-2),with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m^(-2).As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.展开更多
Space solar power station is an energy system that converts solar energy into electrical energy in the space environment and then transmits it to the space platform or ground using wireless power transmission technolo...Space solar power station is an energy system that converts solar energy into electrical energy in the space environment and then transmits it to the space platform or ground using wireless power transmission technology.To improve the power generation and system efficiency of the space solar power station,an adaptive and reconfigurable photovoltaic array with multi-configuration is proposed,which can avoid large attenuation of the output power and efficiency of the photovoltaic array when the photovoltaic modules have a fault occurs or the receive different irradiation intensity.Then,according to the orbit area and light condition of the space solar power station,the operation mode are divided in detail.Furthermore,a novel full-cycle and multi-mode GMPPT(maximum power point tracking)strategy is proposed.Compared to the single mode MPPT,the control strategy has shorter response time,faster convergence and higher tracking accuracy.Through the above research,the output power and photoelectric conversion efficiency of space solar power station can be significantly improved.展开更多
基金Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2023J044)Innovation Foundation of CMA Public Meteorological Service Center(K2023002)+1 种基金“Tianchi Talents”Introduction Plan(2023)Key Innovation Team for Energy and Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration。
文摘In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m^(-2),particularly below 400 W m^(-2),with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m^(-2).As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.
基金supported by CAS Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research(Grant No.YSBR-102).
文摘Space solar power station is an energy system that converts solar energy into electrical energy in the space environment and then transmits it to the space platform or ground using wireless power transmission technology.To improve the power generation and system efficiency of the space solar power station,an adaptive and reconfigurable photovoltaic array with multi-configuration is proposed,which can avoid large attenuation of the output power and efficiency of the photovoltaic array when the photovoltaic modules have a fault occurs or the receive different irradiation intensity.Then,according to the orbit area and light condition of the space solar power station,the operation mode are divided in detail.Furthermore,a novel full-cycle and multi-mode GMPPT(maximum power point tracking)strategy is proposed.Compared to the single mode MPPT,the control strategy has shorter response time,faster convergence and higher tracking accuracy.Through the above research,the output power and photoelectric conversion efficiency of space solar power station can be significantly improved.
