Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Daily SPEI Reveals Long-term Change in Drought Characteristics in Southwest China

Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed(increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends(P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960 s to the 1990 s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970 s and 1980 s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000 s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming.

Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China

Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.

Analysis of spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Luanhe River Basin using different drought indices

Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.

Tree ring based drought variability in Northwest Tajikistan since 1895 AD

Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central Asia.Forest trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical climate.This study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the Pamir region.Climate data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS 4.00.The COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of J.turkestanica trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–April.The monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the variance.During the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–2016.The spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–2016.This study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.

Comprehensive drought monitoring in Yunnan Province, China using multisource remote sensing data

Development of drought monitoring techniques is important for understanding and mitigating droughts and for rational agricultural management. This study used data from multiple sources, including MOD13 A3, TRMM 3 B43, and SRTMDEM, for Yunnan Province, China from 2009 to 2018 to calculate the tropical rainfall condition index(TRCI), vegetation condition index(VCI), temperature condition index(TCI), and elevation factors. Principal component analysis(PCA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used to construct comprehensive drought monitoring models for Yunnan Province. The reliability of the models was verified, following which the drought situation in Yunnan Province for the past ten years was analysed. The results showed that:(1) The comprehensive drought index(CDI) had a high correlation with the standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, temperature vegetation dryness index, and CLDAS(China Meteorological Administration land data assimilation system), indicating that the CDI was a strong indicator of drought through meteorological, remote sensing and soil moisture monitoring.(2) The droughts from 2009 to 2018 showed generally consistent spatiotemporal changes. Droughts occurred in most parts of the province, with an average drought frequency of 29% and four droughtprone centres.(3) Monthly drought coverage during 2009 to 2014 exceeded that over 2015 to 2018. January had the largest average drought coverage over the study period(61.92%). Droughts at most stations during the remaining months except for October exhibited a weakening trend(slope > 0). The CDI provides a novel approach for drought monitoring in areas with complex terrain such as Yunnan Province.

Effects of Drought on Net Primary Productivity:Roles of Temperature,Drought Intensity,and Duration

Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years. However, the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP) in Northeast China remain unclear. In this paper, the droughts that occurred in Northeast China between 1999 and 2013 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI). The NPP standardized anomaly index(NPP-SAI) was used to evaluate NPP anomalies. The years of 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2007 were further investigated in order to explore the influence of droughts on NPP at different time scales(3, 6, and 12 months). Based on the NPP-SAI of normal areas, we found droughts overall decreased NPP by 112.06 Tg C between 1999 and 2013. Lower temperatures at the beginning of the growing season could cause declines in NPP by shortening the length of the growing season. Mild drought or short-term drought with higher temperatures might increase NPP, and weak intensity droughts intensified the lag effects of droughts on NPP.

Tree growth is more limited by drought in rear-edge forests most of the times

Background:Equatorward,rear-edge tree populations are natural monitors to estimate species vulnerability to climate change.According to biogeographical theory,exposition to drought events increases with increasing aridity towards the equator and the growth of southern tree populations will be more vulnerable to drought than in central populations.However,the ecological and biogeographical margins can mismatch due to the impact of ecological factors(topography,soils)or tree-species acclimation that can blur large-scale geographical imprints in trees responses to drought making northern populations more drought limited.Methods:We tested these ideas in six tree species,three angiosperms(Fagus sylvatica,Quercus robur,Quercus petraea)and three gymnosperms(Abies alba,Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata)by comparing rear-edge tree populations subjected to different degrees of aridity.We used dendrochronology to compare the radial-growth patterns of these species in northern,intermediate,and southern tree populations at the continental rear edge.Results and conclusions:We found marked variations in growth variability between species with coherent patterns of stronger drought signals in the tree-ring series of the southern populations of F.sylvatica,P.sylvestris,and A.alba.This was also observed in species from cool-wet sites(P.uncinata and Q.robur),despite their limited responsiveness to drought.However,in the case of Q.petraea the intermediate population showed the strongest relationship to drought.For drought-sensitive species as F.sylvatica and P.sylvestris,southern populations presented more variable growth which was enhanced by cool-wet conditions from late spring to summer.We found a trend of enhanced vulnerability to drought in these two species.The response of tree growth to drought has a marked biogeographical component characterized by increased drought sensitivity in southern populations even within the species distribution rear edge.Nevertheless,the relationship between tree growth and drought varied between species suggesting that biogeographical and ecological limits do not always overlap as in the case of Q.petraea.In widespread species showing enhanced vulnerability to drought,as F.sylvatica and P.sylvestris,increased vulnerability to climate warming in their rear edges is forecasted.Therefore,we encourage the monitoring and conservation of such marginal tree populations.

Response of Vegetation Cover Change to Drought at Different Time-scales in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region,China

Dominated by an arid and semiarid continental climate,the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region(BTSSR)is a typical ecologically fragile region with frequently occurring droughts.To provide information for regional vegetation protection and drought prevention,we assessed the relations between vegetation cover change(measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)at different time-scales,in different growth stages,in different subregions and for different vegetation types based on the Pearson's correlation coefficient in the BTSSR from 2000 to 2017.Results showed that 88.19%of the vegetated areas experienced increased NDVI in the growing season;48.3%of the vegetated areas experi-enced significantly increased NDVI(P<0.05)and were mainly in the south of the BTSSR.During the growing season,a wetter climate contributed to the increased vegetation cover from 2000 to 2017,and NDVI anomalies were closely related to SPEI.The maximum correlation coefficient in the growing season(Rmax)was significantly positive(P<0.05)in 97.84%of the total vegetated areas.In the vegetated areas with significantly positive Rmax,pixels with short time-scales(1-3 mon)accounted for the largest proportion(33.9%).The sensitivity of vegetation to the impact of drought rose first and then decreased in the growing season,with a peak in July.Compared with two subregions in the south,subregions in the north of the BTSSR were more sensitive to the impacts of drought variations,especially in the Xilingol Plateau and Wuzhumuqin Basin.All four major vegetation types were sensitive to the effects of drought variations,especially grasslands.The time-scales of the most impacting droughts varied with growth stages,regions,and vegetation types.These results can help us understand the relations between vegetation and droughts,which are important for ecological restoration and drought prevention.

Meteorological Drought in Nujiang and Lancang River Basins during Recent 50 Years

Drought is one of the main natural disasters that cause economic loss in the basins of international rivers such as Nujiang and Lancang rivers. Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 31 meteorological stations in Nujiang and Lancang river basins in Yunnan Province during 1965-2013, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) in each of the two bio-climate zones was calculated. In addition, the drought process in annual, seasonal and monthly scale was analyzed respectively to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics and the intensity variation of meteorological drought in Nujiang and Lancang river basins in Yunnan Province. The results showed that there was a significant increasing trend in seasonal(especially winter's) and monthly drought since the late 1970 s; the drought occurred in the two bio-climate zones showed no obvious spatial distinction, and it was synchronized with that occurred throughout Yunnan Province; and in the recent 50 years, the significant increase of drought in the study area may be attributed to the significant rise in temperature, rather than the slight decline of the precipitation.

近五十年中国干旱半干旱区正在变湿吗?

Recently, whether drylands of Northwest China(NW) have become wetting has been attracting surging attentions. By comparing the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices(SPEI) derived from two different potential evapotranspiration estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite algorithm(SPEI_th) and the Penman-Monteith equation(SPEI_pm), we try to resolve the controversy. The analysis indicated that air temperature has been warming significantly at a rate of 0.4℃ decade^(-1) in the last five decades and the more arid areas are more prone to becoming warmer. Annual precipitation of the entire study area increased insignificantly by 3.6 mm decade^(-1) from 1970 to 2019 but NW presented significantly increasing trends. Further, the SPEI_th and SPEI_pm demonstrated similar wetting-drying-wetting trends(three phases) in China’s drylands during 1970–2019. The common periodical signals in the middle phase were identified both by SPEI_th and SPEI_pm wavelet analysis. Analysis with different temporal intervals can lead to divergent or even opposite results. The attribution analysis revealed that precipitation is the main climatic factor driving the drought trend transition. This study hints that the wetting trend’s direction and magnitude hinge on the targeted temporal periods and regions.

Estimation of total water storage changes in India

Long-term droughts significantly impact surface and groundwater resources in India,however,observed changes in major river basins have not been well explored.Here we use Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)at three different time scales(24,48,and 60 months)to identify long-term droughts in India for the observed record of 1951-2015.Drought characteristics(extent,events,frequency,and intensity)are analyzed for different river basins in India.Increasing trend in the areal extent of droughts is observed in two methods with three time scales in the maximum area(63.66%)in India.We use the data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)to estimate the changes in the terrestrial water storage(TWS)during the period 2002-2015.We identify that major long-term droughts in India occurred from 1966 to 1969,1972,1986-1987,and 2002-2004.The all-India average TWS shows a negative trend from 2002 to 2015 with prominent decline in north Indian river basins and positive trend in south Indian river basins.SPI and SPEI at longer time scales are positively associated with TWS indicating the adverse impacts of droughts on surface and groundwater resources in such a populated region.

Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Autumn Drought Trend over China from 1961 to 2014

Understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought is of great significance to the prevention of its adverse effects.Two drought indices,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),are used here for the detection and attribution of autumn droughts in China,and for the exploration of the role played by the anthropogenic climate change.SPI is only related to precipitation,but SPEI involves both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.For their trend’s spatial patterns,the historical simulations(including all forcings,noted as ALL)from 11 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,as an ensemble,are able to reproduce their observational counterpart.SPI shows wetting trend in the north of 35°N and drying trend in the south.SPEI shows drying trend in almost whole China.The drying trend in historical simulations ALL is significantly stronger,compared with the counterpart from the accompanying simulations(called NAT)with only natural forcings implemented.This result clearly indicates that anthropogenic climate change plays a dominant role in the enhancement of autumn drought in China.A more rigorous detection work is also performed with the signal’s fingerprint of ALL(and NAT)projected onto the observation and assessed with the background noise from no external-forcing control simulations.The trend pattern signal in ALL is significantly detected in observation for both SPI and SPEI,with a more pronounced signal in SPEI than in SPI,while the signal of NAT is not detected for neither SPI nor SPEI.Finally,extreme droughts(with indices beyond-2)are assessed in terms of probability ratio between ALL and NAT.It is shown that the anthropogenic precipitation change plays a leading role in the south of 35°N,while the anthropogenic temperature change leads in the north.