Customized Optimization for Vehicle Acoustic Statistical Energy Analysis

Statistical Energy Analysis(SEA) is one of the conventional tools for predicting vehicle high-frequency acoustic responses.This study proposes a new method that can provide customized optimization solutions to meet NVH targets based on the specific needs of different project teams during the initial project stages.This approach innovatively integrates dynamic optimization,Radial Basis Function(RBF),and Fuzzy Design Variables Genetic Algorithm(FDVGA) into the optimization process of Statistical Energy Analysis(SEA),and also takes vehicle sheet metal into account in the optimization of sound packages.In the implementation process,a correlation model is established through Python scripts to link material density with acoustic parameters,weight,and cost.By combining Optimus and VaOne software,an optimization design workflow is constructed and the optimization design process is successfully executed.Under various constraints related to acoustic performance,weight and cost,a globally optimal design is achieved.This technology has been effectively applied in the field of Battery Electric Vehicle(BEV).

Simulation on a Car Interior Aerodynamic Noise Control Based on Statistical Energy Analysis

How to simulate interior aerodynamic noise accurately is an important question of a car interior noise reduction. The unsteady aerodynamic pressure on body surfaces is proved to be the key effect factor of car interior aerodynamic noise control in high frequency on high speed. In this paper, a detail statistical energy analysis （SEA） model is built. And the vibra-acoustic power inputs are loaded on the model for the valid result of car interior noise analysis. The model is the solid foundation for further optimization on car interior noise control. After the most sensitive subsystems for the power contribution to car interior noise are pointed by SEA comprehensive analysis, the sound pressure level of car interior aerodynamic noise can be reduced by improving their sound and damping characteristics. The further vehicle testing results show that it is available to improve the interior acoustic performance by using detailed SEA model, which comprised by more than 80 subsystems, with the unsteady aerodynamic pressure calculation on body surfaces and the materials improvement of sound/damping properties. It is able to acquire more than 2 dB reduction on the central frequency in the spectrum over 800 Hz. The proposed optimization method can be looked as a reference of car interior aerodynamic noise control by the detail SEA model integrated unsteady computational fluid dynamics （CFD） and sensitivity analysis of acoustic contribution.

A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay

Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.

A Statistical Parameter Analysis and SVM Based Fault Diagnosis Strategy for Dynamically Tuned Gyroscopes

Gyro's fault diagnosis plays a critical role in inertia navigation systems for higher reliability and precision. A new fault diagnosis strategy based on the statistical parameter analysis (SPA) and support vector machine (SVM) classification model was proposed for dynamically tuned gyroscopes (DTG). The SPA, a kind of time domain analysis approach, was introduced to compute a set of statistical parameters of vibration signal as the state features of DTG, with which the SVM model, a novel learning machine based on statistical learning theory (SLT), was applied and constructed to train and identify the working state of DTG. The experimental results verify that the proposed diagnostic strategy can simply and effectively extract the state features of DTG, and it outperforms the radial-basis function (RBF) neural network based diagnostic method and can more reliably and accurately diagnose the working state of DTG.

A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China

The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal（one season in advance） prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.

An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model （SD-90）Ⅱ：Real Tropical Cyclone Cases

In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

The cold vortex is a major high impact weather system in northeast China during the warm season, its frequent activities also affect the short-term climate throughout eastern China. How to objectively and quantitatively predict the intensity trend of the cold vortex is an urgent and difficult problem for current short-term climate prediction. Based on the dynamical-statistical combining principle, the predicted results of the Beijing Climate Center＇s global atmosphereocean coupled model and rich historical data are used for dynamic-statistical extra-seasonal prediction testing and actual prediction of the summer 500-hPa geopotential height over the cold vortex activity area. The results show that this method can significantly reduce the model＇s prediction error over the cold vortex activity area, and improve the prediction skills. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity test reveal that the predicted results are highly dependent on the quantity of similar factors and the number of similar years.

Dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled simulation of statistically inhomogeneous materials by statistical second-order two-scale method

In this paper,a statistical second-order twoscale（SSOTS） method is developed to simulate the dynamic thcrmo-mechanical performances of the statistically inhomogeneous materials.For this kind of composite material,the random distribution characteristics of particles,including the shape,size,orientation,spatial location,and volume fractions,are all considered.Firstly,the repre.sentation for the microscopic configuration of the statistically inhomogeneous materials is described.Secondly,the SSOTS formulation for the dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled problem is proposed in a constructive way,including the cell problems,effective thermal and mechanical parameters,homogenized problems,and the SSOTS formulas of the temperatures,displacements,heat flux densities and stresses.And then the algorithm procedure corresponding to the SSOTS method is brought forward.The numerical results obtained by using the SSOTS algorithm are compared with those by classical methods.In addition,the thermo-mechanical coupling effect is studied by comparing the results of coupled case with those of uncoupled case.It demonstrates that the coupling effect on the temperatures,heat flux densities,displacements,and stresses is very distinct.The results show that the SSOTS method is valid to predict the dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled performances of statistically inhomogeneous materials.

ON THE MECHANISM OF TURBULENT COHERENT STRUCTURE (III)──A STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICALMODEL OF COHERENT STRUCTURE AND ITSHEAT TRANSFER MECHANISM

Following Tsai & Ma[1] and Tsai & Liu[2], a statistical and dynamical near-wall turbulent coherent structural model with separate consideration of two different portions:locally generated and upstream-transported large eddies has been established.With this model, heat transfer in a fully developed open channel in the absence of pressure gradient is numerically simulated. Database of fluctuations of velocity and temperature has also been set. Numerical analysis shows the existence of high-low temperature streak caused by near-wall coherent structure and its swing in the lateral direction.Numerical results are in accordance with the computations and experimental results of other researchers.

A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications.In this work,a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean,minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling.These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland.The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform(CDF-t).The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season.The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively,by inspection of quantile-quantile plots,and quantitatively,through the Cramer-von Mises,mean absolute error,and root-mean-square error diagnostics.The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling(for all seasons).The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive,and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts(at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).

Advanced Statistical Analysis for Relationships between Particle Morphology (Size and Shape) and Shear (Static and Dynamic) Characteristics of Sands

Morphology properties of naturally occurring sandy soil deposits are a consequence of the past geological transport history which gives rise to their different shape and size distributions. Five sand samples with different particle size and shape distributions were analysed statistically. Cluster analysis, performance indicators and probability distributions were used to find a representative shape parameter value. Static and dynamic tests were also contemporarily done to study the shear characteristics of the samples. Dimensionless relationships of the critical shear stress (τcr) normalised with respect to the normal stress (σN) against the representative values are presented. Dynamic testing on the samples showed that the modulus reduction curve (G/Gmax) and damping ratio (D) were also dependent on the morphology characteristics of the sand samples.

Predictive Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of the Dynamic Poverty Problem in Burundi: Case of an Innovative Economic Optimization System

The mathematical and statistical modeling of the problem of poverty is a major challenge given Burundi’s economic development. Innovative economic optimization systems are widely needed to face the problem of the dynamic of the poverty in Burundi. The Burundian economy shows an inflation rate of -1.5% in 2018 for the Gross Domestic Product growth real rate of 2.8% in 2016. In this research, the aim is to find a model that contributes to solving the problem of poverty in Burundi. The results of this research fill the knowledge gap in the modeling and optimization of the Burundian economic system. The aim of this model is to solve an optimization problem combining the variables of production, consumption, budget, human resources and available raw materials. Scientific modeling and optimal solving of the poverty problem show the tools for measuring poverty rate and determining various countries’ poverty levels when considering advanced knowledge. In addition, investigating the aspects of poverty will properly orient development aid to developing countries and thus, achieve their objectives of growth and the fight against poverty. This paper provides a new and innovative framework for global scientific research regarding the multiple facets of this problem. An estimate of the poverty rate allows good progress with the theory and optimization methods in measuring the poverty rate and achieving sustainable development goals. By comparing the annual food production and the required annual consumption, there is an imbalance between different types of food. Proteins, minerals and vitamins produced in Burundi are sufficient when considering their consumption as required by the entire Burundian population. This positive contribution for the latter comes from the fact that some cows, goats, fishes, ···, slaughtered in Burundi come from neighboring countries. Real production remains in deficit. The lipids, acids, calcium, fibers and carbohydrates produced in Burundi are insufficient for consumption. This negative contribution proves a Burundian food deficit. It is a decision-making indicator for the design and updating of agricultural policy and implementation programs as well as projects. Investment and economic growth are only possible when food security is mastered. The capital allocated to food investment must be revised upwards. Demographic control is also a relevant indicator to push forward Burundi among the emerging countries in 2040. Meanwhile, better understanding of the determinants of poverty by taking cultural and organizational aspects into account guides managers for poverty reduction projects and programs.

Studies of Climate Change with Statistical-Dynamical Models: A Review

The cause-effect relationship is not always possible to trace in GCMs because of the simultaneous inclusion of several highly complex physical processes. Furthermore, the inter-GCM differences are large and there is no simple way to reconcile them. So, simple climate models, like statistical-dynamical models (SDMs), appear to be useful in this context. This kind of models is essentially mechanistic, being directed towards understanding the dependence of a particular mechanism on the other parameters of the problem. In this paper, the utility of SDMs for studies of climate change is discussed in some detail. We show that these models are an indispensable part of hierarchy of climate models.

Stability analysis of CO_(2)gas shielded welding short-circuit transition process based on GMAW dynamic model

Base on the arc phase and short-circuit phase and their relationship, the paper considers the changes of the extension of wire, the arc length, liquid bridge resistance and mass of liquid bridge, combines the improved “mass-spring” model with the loop model of welding power system, puts forward the critical judgment condition of droplet transition, and establishes a more accurate dynamic model for describing the short-circuit transition process. The dynamic changes of short-circuit transfer frequency, welding current and voltage, contact droplet and residual droplet equivalent radius and droplet equivalent radius at different wire feeding speeds were calculated and analyzed, and compared with the experimental results. It shows that the fluctuation of droplet displacement, velocity and wire extension length at the optimal arc starting point is the smallest. The smaller the initial liquid bridge curvature radius is, the better the stability of short-circuit transfer is.

Fault diagnosis of time-delay complex dynamical networks using output signals

This paper proposes a novel approach for fault diagnosis of a time-delay complex dynamical network. Unlike the other methods, assuming that the dynamics of the network can be described by a linear stochastic model, or using the state variables of nodes in the network to design an adaptive observer, it only uses the output variable of the nodes to design an observer and an adaptive law of topology matrix in the observer of a complex network, leading to simple design of the observer and easy realisation of topology monitoring for the complex networks in real engineering. The proposed scheme can monitor any changes of the topology structure of a time-delay complex network. The effectiveness of this method is successfully demonstrated by virtue of a complex networks with Lorenz model.

Oscillating Statistics of Transitive Dynamics

We prove that topologically generic orbits of C0 , transitive and non-uniquely ergodic dynamical systems, exhibit an extremely oscillating asymptotical statistics. Precisely, the minimum weak* compact set of invariant probabilities that describes the asymptotical statistics of each orbit of a residual set contains all the ergodic probabilities. If besides f is ergodic with respect to the Lebesgue measure, then also Lebesgue-almost all the orbits exhibit that kind of extremely oscillating statistics.

Impulsive synchronization of two coupled complex networks with time-delayed dynamical nodes

In this paper, we investigate the impulsive synchronization between two coupled complex networks with time- delayed dynamical nodes. Based on the Lyapunov stability, the linear feedback control and the impulsive control theories, the linear feedback and the impulsive controllers are designed separately. By using the generalized Barbalat＇s lemma, the global asymptotic impulsive synchronization of the drive-response complex networks is derived and some corresponding sufficient conditions are also obtained. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness and the correctness of the synchronization criteria.

A Kind of Time-Delayed COVID-19 Dynamical Model with Vaccination

In the paper, we study a kind of time-delayed novel coronavirus pneumonia dynamical model with vaccination. This model considers that people are vaccinated, and the human immune system has a series of processes, which need a certain time. We first obtain the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number R0, and the system has a unique endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. Then we discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium with different delays τ. For τ = 0, using the Lyapunov function approach, we obtained the stability of disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, respectively. For any delay τ ≠ 0, using the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria, we obtained that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. We also find the critical value τ0 at the endemic equilibrium, and obtain the condition that the system has a Hopf bifurcation at the endemic equilibrium. Finally, with the suitable choices of the parameters, some numerical simulations are presented in order to verify the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.

IMPACT OF SUMMER WARMING ON DYNAMICS-STATISTICS-COMBINED METHOD TO PREDICT THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN CHINA

Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.

Dynamic analysis and experimental study of vibro-acoustic system with uncertainties at middle frequencies

To take into account the influence of uncetainties on the dynamic response of the vibro-acousitc structure, a hybrid modeling technique combining the finite element method（FE）and the statistic energy analysis（SEA） is proposed to analyze vibro-acoustics responses with uncertainties at middle frequencies. The mid-frequency dynamic response of the framework-plate structure with uncertainties is studied based on the hybrid FE-SEA method and the Monte Carlo（MC）simulation is performed so as to provide a benchmark comparison with the hybrid method. The energy response of the framework-plate structure matches well with the MC simulation results, which validates the effectiveness of the hybrid FE-SEA method considering both the complexity of the vibro-acoustic structure and the uncertainties in mid-frequency vibro-acousitc analysis. Based on the hybrid method, a vibroacoustic model of a construction machinery cab with random properties is established, and the excitations of the model are measured by experiments. The responses of the sound pressure level of the cab and the vibration power spectrum density of the front windscreen are calculated and compared with those of the experiment. At middle frequencies, the results have a good consistency with the tests and the prediction error is less than 3. 5dB.