Understanding the irrational sentiments of the market participants is necessary for making good investment decisions.Despite the recent academic effort to examine the role of investors’sentiments in market dynamics,t...Understanding the irrational sentiments of the market participants is necessary for making good investment decisions.Despite the recent academic effort to examine the role of investors’sentiments in market dynamics,there is a lack of consensus in delineating the structural aspect of market sentiments.This research is an attempt to address this gap.The study explores the role of irrational investors’sentiments in determining stock market volatility.By employing monthly data on market-related implicit indices,we constructed an irrational sentiment index using principal component analysis.This sentiment index was modelled in the GARCH and Granger causality framework to analyse its contribution to volatility.The results showed that irrational sentiment significantly causes excess market volatility.Moreover,the study indicates that the asymmetrical aspects of an inefficient market contribute to excess volatility and returns.The findings are crucial for retail investors as well as portfolio managers seeking to make an optimum portfolio to maximise profits.展开更多
Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autor...Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.展开更多
Hiemstra and Jones(1994) argued that a significant negative value of their nonlinear Granger causality test(H-J test) means there is a confounding effect in the prediction.However,from the theoretical analysis and Mon...Hiemstra and Jones(1994) argued that a significant negative value of their nonlinear Granger causality test(H-J test) means there is a confounding effect in the prediction.However,from the theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations,the authors find that H-J test is significantly negative under the circumstance of negative volatility spillover.Furthermore,the authors put forward the conceptions of positive/negative nonlinear spillover,and apply H-J test to examine positive/negative nonlinear spillover effect.The empirical study on China stock futures and spot markets shows that:1) There is significant positive nonlinear spillover from futures to spot market;2) There is significant negative nonlinear spillover from spot to futures market.The authors argue that there is "risk absorption" mechanism in information spillover from the spot market to the futures market,which is due to the temporal transfer of speculative trading from the analysis.展开更多
In the era of big data,stock markets are closely connected with Internet big data from diverse sources.This paper makes the first attempt to compare the linkage between stock markets and various Internet big data coll...In the era of big data,stock markets are closely connected with Internet big data from diverse sources.This paper makes the first attempt to compare the linkage between stock markets and various Internet big data collected from search engines,public media and social media.To achieve this purpose,a big data-based causality testing framework is proposed with three steps,i.e.,data crawling,data mining and causality testing.Taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as targets for stock markets,web search data,news,and microblogs as samples of Internet big data,some interesting findings can be obtained.1)There is a strong bi-directional,linear and nonlinear Granger causality between stock markets and investors'web search behaviors due to some similar trends and uncertain factors.2)News sentiments from public media have Granger causality with stock markets in a bi-directional linear way,while microblog sentiments from social media have Granger causality with stock markets in a unidirectional linear way,running from stock markets to microblog sentiments.3)News sentiments can explain the changes in stock markets better than microblog sentiments due to their authority.The results of this paper might provide some valuable information for both stock market investors and modelers.展开更多
Modem China is undergoing a variety of social conflicts as the arrival of new era with thetransformation of the principal contradiction. Then monitoring the society stable is a huge workload.Online societal risk perce...Modem China is undergoing a variety of social conflicts as the arrival of new era with thetransformation of the principal contradiction. Then monitoring the society stable is a huge workload.Online societal risk perception is acquired by mapping on-line public concerns respectively intosocietal risk events including national security, economy ＆ finance, public morals, daily life, socialstability, government management, and resources ＆ environment, and then provides one kind ofmeasurement toward the society state. Obviously, stable and harmonious social situations are the basicguarantee for the healthy development of the stock market. Thus we concern whether the variations ofthe societal risk are related to stock market volatility. We study their relationships by two steps, firstthe relationships between search trends and societal risk perception; next the relationships betweensocietal risk perception and stock volatility. The weekend and holiday effects in China stock market aretaken into consideration. Three different econometric methods are explored to observe the impacts ofvariations of societal risk on Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. 3 majorfindings are addressed. Firstly, there exist causal relations between Baidu Index and societal riskperception. Secondly, the perception of finance ＆ economy, social stability, and governmentmanagement has distinguishing effects on the volatility of both Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. Thirdly, the weekend and holiday effects of societal risk perception on the stock market are verified. The research demonstrates that capturing societal risk based on on-line public concerns is feasible and meaningful.展开更多
文摘Understanding the irrational sentiments of the market participants is necessary for making good investment decisions.Despite the recent academic effort to examine the role of investors’sentiments in market dynamics,there is a lack of consensus in delineating the structural aspect of market sentiments.This research is an attempt to address this gap.The study explores the role of irrational investors’sentiments in determining stock market volatility.By employing monthly data on market-related implicit indices,we constructed an irrational sentiment index using principal component analysis.This sentiment index was modelled in the GARCH and Granger causality framework to analyse its contribution to volatility.The results showed that irrational sentiment significantly causes excess market volatility.Moreover,the study indicates that the asymmetrical aspects of an inefficient market contribute to excess volatility and returns.The findings are crucial for retail investors as well as portfolio managers seeking to make an optimum portfolio to maximise profits.
文摘Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71001096,70933003,and 71071170
文摘Hiemstra and Jones(1994) argued that a significant negative value of their nonlinear Granger causality test(H-J test) means there is a confounding effect in the prediction.However,from the theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations,the authors find that H-J test is significantly negative under the circumstance of negative volatility spillover.Furthermore,the authors put forward the conceptions of positive/negative nonlinear spillover,and apply H-J test to examine positive/negative nonlinear spillover effect.The empirical study on China stock futures and spot markets shows that:1) There is significant positive nonlinear spillover from futures to spot market;2) There is significant negative nonlinear spillover from spot to futures market.The authors argue that there is "risk absorption" mechanism in information spillover from the spot market to the futures market,which is due to the temporal transfer of speculative trading from the analysis.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.715732447153201371202115 and 71403260。
文摘In the era of big data,stock markets are closely connected with Internet big data from diverse sources.This paper makes the first attempt to compare the linkage between stock markets and various Internet big data collected from search engines,public media and social media.To achieve this purpose,a big data-based causality testing framework is proposed with three steps,i.e.,data crawling,data mining and causality testing.Taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as targets for stock markets,web search data,news,and microblogs as samples of Internet big data,some interesting findings can be obtained.1)There is a strong bi-directional,linear and nonlinear Granger causality between stock markets and investors'web search behaviors due to some similar trends and uncertain factors.2)News sentiments from public media have Granger causality with stock markets in a bi-directional linear way,while microblog sentiments from social media have Granger causality with stock markets in a unidirectional linear way,running from stock markets to microblog sentiments.3)News sentiments can explain the changes in stock markets better than microblog sentiments due to their authority.The results of this paper might provide some valuable information for both stock market investors and modelers.
基金This research is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFB1000902） and National Natural Science Foundation of China （61473284 ＆ 71731002）.
文摘Modem China is undergoing a variety of social conflicts as the arrival of new era with thetransformation of the principal contradiction. Then monitoring the society stable is a huge workload.Online societal risk perception is acquired by mapping on-line public concerns respectively intosocietal risk events including national security, economy ＆ finance, public morals, daily life, socialstability, government management, and resources ＆ environment, and then provides one kind ofmeasurement toward the society state. Obviously, stable and harmonious social situations are the basicguarantee for the healthy development of the stock market. Thus we concern whether the variations ofthe societal risk are related to stock market volatility. We study their relationships by two steps, firstthe relationships between search trends and societal risk perception; next the relationships betweensocietal risk perception and stock volatility. The weekend and holiday effects in China stock market aretaken into consideration. Three different econometric methods are explored to observe the impacts ofvariations of societal risk on Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. 3 majorfindings are addressed. Firstly, there exist causal relations between Baidu Index and societal riskperception. Secondly, the perception of finance ＆ economy, social stability, and governmentmanagement has distinguishing effects on the volatility of both Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. Thirdly, the weekend and holiday effects of societal risk perception on the stock market are verified. The research demonstrates that capturing societal risk based on on-line public concerns is feasible and meaningful.
